Remittance reach $2.44 billion in Dec 2020

[Bilal.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1347528337481207809

 

[Syed1.]

Great news.... But Dec had a trade deficit of 2.6b so this month we will probably have a current account deficit breaking the 5 month streak of surplus.


I wonder why imports jumped by +1b in a month. If it is mostly machinery imports then it is good news otherwise some retightening might be required.

 

[Bilal.]

6 month remittance stand at $14.2 billion.

Great news.... But Dec had a trade deficit of 2.6b so this month we will probably have a current account deficit breaking the 5 month streak of surplus.


I wonder why imports jumped by +1b in a month. If it is mostly machinery imports then it is good news otherwise some retightening might be required.

If foreign investment of ~250-300 mil were reached, we will post another surplus.

 

[Syed1.]

6 month remittan

if foreign investment of ~250-300 mil were reached, we will post another surplus.

Let's see but we also usually have 200-300mil worth of services trade deficit.

 

[IndiaIsBad]

6 month remittance stand at $14.2 billion.

If foreign investment of ~250-300 mil were reached, we will post another surplus.

Foreign investment is not counted in cad.

Congrats pakistan

 

[Bilal.]

Foreign investment is not counted in cad.

Congrats pakistan

FDI is.

 

[IndiaIsBad]

FDI is.

No.

 

[Mrc]

Also export of services will also add substantial amount and probably cover the gap

 

[Syed1.]

Also export of services will also add substantial amount and probably cover the gap

No unfortunately we import more services than export so it won't cover.

 

[Morpheus]

I wonder why imports jumped by +1b in a month. If it is mostly machinery imports then it is good news otherwise some retightening might be required.

Import of raw material. Govt reduced the custom duty to allow import of raw material that were in short supply.

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For the First Time Ever Pakistan Reports Over $2 Billion in Remittances for 6 Consecutive Months

Posted 2 seconds ago by Syeda Masooma

Prime Minister Imran Khan announced via Twitter on Friday that Pakistan had received $2.4 billion in remittances in December 2020.

​

The tweet read: “I want to thank our overseas Pakistanis for yet another record-breaking month of remittances in Dec: $2.4 billion. MashaAllah, 1st time in Pakistan remittances have been above $2 billion for 6 consecutive months”.


The total remittances received for six months of this fiscal year amount to $14.2 billion, which shows 24.9 percent growth as compared to the previous fiscal year.
This is the highest half-yearly growth since FY07.

Remittance inflows have been well-diversified. Most of the inflows during H1-FY21 were sourced from Saudi Arabia ($4.0 billion), United Arab Emirates ($3.0 billion), United Kingdom ($1.9 billion) and United States ($1.2 billion).

This strong growth in workers’ remittances is attributable to the increased use of formal channels on the back of sustained efforts by the government and SBP to encourage inflows through official channels as well as limited cross-border travel due to the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, together with favorable foreign exchange market dynamics.

The Managing Director at Khadim Ali Shah Bukhari Securities, A.A.H Soomro spoke to ProPakistani and said, “Extended COVID-19 lockdowns coupled with increased formal channels are keeping remittances super strong. The economy is getting solid, and remittances are paving way for higher imports”.

He said that the Roshan digital accounts are likely to keep the momentum upwards, adding, “Expect foreign investment to increase in debt market also”.
CEO of the financial advisory Alpha Beta Core, Khurram Schezad told ProPakistani,

Remittances have also increased because travel (informal channel of remittances) has decreased due to Covid-19, and that has made remittances flow through formal channels. Furthermore, those who are moving back permanently owing to Covid-19 are also transferring their savings and settlements back to Pakistan.

For the First Time Ever Pakistan Reports Over $2 Billion in Remittances for 6 Consecutive Months

Prime Minister Imran Khan announced via Twitter on Friday that Pakistan had received $2.4 billion in remittances in December 2020. The

propakistani.pk

+++++++++++

 

[Bilal.]

No.

Yes

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[Mrc]

No unfortunately we import more services than export so it won't cover.

I have feeling that CAD is positive that's why state Bank reserve have risen in last week of the month

 

[ziaulislam]

Great news.... But Dec had a trade deficit of 2.6b so this month we will probably have a current account deficit breaking the 5 month streak of surplus.


I wonder why imports jumped by +1b in a month. If it is mostly machinery imports then it is good news otherwise some retightening might be required.

CAD will remain in deficit this year though well within 1% due to rapid risw in exports and remittances

This is because growth will pick up

Govt performance on import substitution in food department has been slow

Agriculture needs more support

 

[Bilal.]

CAD will remain in deficit this year though well within 1% due to rapid risw in exports and remittances

This is because growth will pick up

Govt performance on import substitution in food department has been slow

Agriculture needs more support

Good point. The sugar and wheat imports were done in Dec.

 

[ziaulislam]

Good point. The sugar and wheat imports were done in Dec.

plus import of more fuel and some power plant regarding machinery
but overall i expect imports to recover to 50-55b, exports linger around 28-29b and remittances to hit 30b
still keeping us in range of 0 to -1% CAD

this would alos mean growth is going to pick up to 2.5-3.0% soon

as long as we are going up 5% in exports, diversifying and stream lining remittance..

we should be fine, however we need to keep in mind, what to do if oil rebounds, we need to work in fuel department, we need to move away from furnace oil, build new refineries and stream line gas import