Referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk Republics

[nangyale]

There was huge turnout for the referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk. Thousands of people queued in front of polling stations in Donetsk and Luhansk to cast their ballots. No violent incidents were reported during polling, but tensions remained high amid a military campaign.

 

[nangyale]

Polling stations have closed in Ukraine's self-proclaimed People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk after a referendum on independence from the Kiev government. Organizers of the poll claim voter turnout reached over 70 percent.

The last polling stations in Lugansk and Donetsk regions wrapped up their work at 23:00 local time (20:00 GMT).

There is no minimum voter turnout required for the “people’s republics’” self-determination referendum, but local authorities claim that in Lugansk it has been over 79 %, while in Donetsk region it exceeded 71 %, reported RIA Novosti.

According to first preliminary results, only 5 % of people said no answering to a question whether they “support the Act of state self-rule” of the Lugansk People's Republic respectively, the leader of local “people’s front” Aleksey Chmilenko told Interfax.

“I think this number [5 %] will not rise, but it may decrease,” he added.

Ahead of the vote, local self-defense forces boosted security, fearing that Kiev could stage provocations to disrupt the self-determination vote. In several areas the day did result in new violence and new casualties as the Ukrainian army continues its military operation against “separatists” as it calls pro-autonomy activists.

In Mariupol, recovering from Friday's deadly clashes, only eight polling stations were opened, according to the coordinator of the central election commission of the “Donetsk People’s Republic”, Boris Litvinov. Those willing to vote had to wait for their turn in huge queues.

Almost simultaneously with the opening of polling stations, sounds of shooting and artillery fire were heard on the outskirts of Slavyansk, in southeast Ukraine’s Donetsk region.

Activists in Slavyansk described the attacks to RT by phone.

“The artillery fire was so loud, that the earth and houses shook,” said one man, who only gave his first name, Vlad. “I have been trying to call the people at the checkpoint but they don’t pick up. There are snipers in the area and it’s too dangerous to speak on the phone.”

Slavyansk already witnessed mortar shelling of its outskirts by Ukrainian forces on the eve of the referendum. In the embattled city the stations will close at 15:00 GMT for security reasons.

Some 1,471 polling stations in Lugansk region and around 1,500 in Donetsk region opened their doors for voters at 8:00 local time (5:00 GMT) and will close at 22:00 (19:00 GMT). Security has been tightened around them.

“We sent additional self-defense units to polling stations and also to the most important social institutions,” a Lugansk self-defense leader, Aleksey Chmilenko, told Interfax. “So far everything is normal, there are no incidents.”

RT’s Paula Slier, currently in Donetsk, reported that Roman Lyagin, chair of the central election commission in the region, believed that a provocation was planned and said that anti-government activists were ready for it.

The people’s governor of the Donetsk region, Pavel Gubarev, told journalists that Donetsk and Lugansk will emerge as new legal entities as a result of the referendum.

“The referendum for us is about creating a new state paradigm,” he said.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said the results of the referendum in Donetsk and Lugansk regions would not affect the country’s territorial integrity and form of government.

“Organizers of this criminal farce have consciously violated the Ukrainian constitution and laws, and have neglected calls coming from the authorities in Ukraine and from the international community,” the ministry’s statement read.

Citizens of the two southeastern regions of Ukraine were asked if they “support the Act of state self-rule” of Donetsk People's Republic or Lugansk People's Republic. The election commission officials explained that the people are not choosing between staying within Ukraine and joining Russia, as widely reported, but instead are asked to support regions’ right for political self-determination.

Over 3 million ballot papers were printed for Donetsk region. All in all, the organizers spent about 20,000 hryvnas (US$ 2,000) preparing for the vote in Ukraine’s industrial region, the heart of the country’s coal-mining. “The referendum will be considered valid whatever voter turnout will be,” Roman Lyagin, the head Donetsk election commission told reporters on Saturday.

In Donetsk, western observers were not present at the polling stations, commission officials said, as nobody expressed willingness to oversee the vote in the turbulent region. “We did not refuse anyone, there were no applications,” Lyagin said, adding though that over 470 international journalists were accredited in Donetsk.

AFP Photo / Genya Savilov

Some 30 international observers were monitoring the voting in Lugansk region, where some 1.8 million are expected to take part in the referendum. “According to a survey, 83% of Lugansk residents are ready to support the Act of state self-rule of the People’s Republic of Lugansk,” said Igor Shakhov, the head of the local election commission.

The referendums, announced back in March, went ahead as planned despite Russian President Putin’s call on pro-federalization activists to postpone them due to the deteriorating and unpredictable security situation in Ukraine.

The Kiev government as well as many western countries, including the US, France and Germany called the referendums “illegal” and urged dialogue between all conflicting parties in Ukraine, at the same time showing no readiness to stop the punitive military operation in the east of the country.

The Unites States and EU have denounced the referendum and said they would not recognize the result of the vote on self-rule held by rebels.

"The so-called referenda in... parts of Lugansk and Donetsk regions were illegal and we do not recognize the outcome. Those who organized the referenda have no democratic legitimacy," said Maja Kocijancic, a spokeswoman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton.

If a majority of voters answer “yes” on Sunday the regions will gain full moral right to officially state they do not accept what is happening in the country, anti-coup protesters say. The combined population of Donetsk and Lugansk industrial regions, rejecting the legitimacy of the coup-installed Kiev authorities, stands at about 6.7 million in a country of 45 million.

 

[Superboy]

The combined population of Donetsk and Lugansk industrial regions, rejecting the legitimacy of the coup-installed Kiev authorities, stands at about 6.7 million in a country of 45 million.

Less than 45 million because Crimea should not be included.

 

[nangyale]

Less than 45 million because Crimea should not be included.

That's correct. It will drop further after this referendum.

 

[senheiser]

it will drop to almost 30 million below poland for sure

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

Polling stations have closed in Ukraine's self-proclaimed People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk after a referendum on independence from the Kiev government. Organizers of the poll claim voter turnout reached over 70 percent.

The last polling stations in Lugansk and Donetsk regions wrapped up their work at 23:00 local time (20:00 GMT).

There is no minimum voter turnout required for the “people’s republics’” self-determination referendum, but local authorities claim that in Lugansk it has been over 79 %, while in Donetsk region it exceeded 71 %, reported RIA Novosti.

According to first preliminary results, only 5 % of people said no answering to a question whether they “support the Act of state self-rule” of the Lugansk People's Republic respectively, the leader of local “people’s front” Aleksey Chmilenko told Interfax.

“I think this number [5 %] will not rise, but it may decrease,” he added.

Ahead of the vote, local self-defense forces boosted security, fearing that Kiev could stage provocations to disrupt the self-determination vote. In several areas the day did result in new violence and new casualties as the Ukrainian army continues its military operation against “separatists” as it calls pro-autonomy activists.

In Mariupol, recovering from Friday's deadly clashes, only eight polling stations were opened, according to the coordinator of the central election commission of the “Donetsk People’s Republic”, Boris Litvinov. Those willing to vote had to wait for their turn in huge queues.

Almost simultaneously with the opening of polling stations, sounds of shooting and artillery fire were heard on the outskirts of Slavyansk, in southeast Ukraine’s Donetsk region.

Activists in Slavyansk described the attacks to RT by phone.

“The artillery fire was so loud, that the earth and houses shook,” said one man, who only gave his first name, Vlad. “I have been trying to call the people at the checkpoint but they don’t pick up. There are snipers in the area and it’s too dangerous to speak on the phone.”

Slavyansk already witnessed mortar shelling of its outskirts by Ukrainian forces on the eve of the referendum. In the embattled city the stations will close at 15:00 GMT for security reasons.

Some 1,471 polling stations in Lugansk region and around 1,500 in Donetsk region opened their doors for voters at 8:00 local time (5:00 GMT) and will close at 22:00 (19:00 GMT). Security has been tightened around them.

“We sent additional self-defense units to polling stations and also to the most important social institutions,” a Lugansk self-defense leader, Aleksey Chmilenko, told Interfax. “So far everything is normal, there are no incidents.”

RT’s Paula Slier, currently in Donetsk, reported that Roman Lyagin, chair of the central election commission in the region, believed that a provocation was planned and said that anti-government activists were ready for it.

The people’s governor of the Donetsk region, Pavel Gubarev, told journalists that Donetsk and Lugansk will emerge as new legal entities as a result of the referendum.

“The referendum for us is about creating a new state paradigm,” he said.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said the results of the referendum in Donetsk and Lugansk regions would not affect the country’s territorial integrity and form of government.

“Organizers of this criminal farce have consciously violated the Ukrainian constitution and laws, and have neglected calls coming from the authorities in Ukraine and from the international community,” the ministry’s statement read.

Citizens of the two southeastern regions of Ukraine were asked if they “support the Act of state self-rule” of Donetsk People's Republic or Lugansk People's Republic. The election commission officials explained that the people are not choosing between staying within Ukraine and joining Russia, as widely reported, but instead are asked to support regions’ right for political self-determination.

Over 3 million ballot papers were printed for Donetsk region. All in all, the organizers spent about 20,000 hryvnas (US$ 2,000) preparing for the vote in Ukraine’s industrial region, the heart of the country’s coal-mining. “The referendum will be considered valid whatever voter turnout will be,” Roman Lyagin, the head Donetsk election commission told reporters on Saturday.

In Donetsk, western observers were not present at the polling stations, commission officials said, as nobody expressed willingness to oversee the vote in the turbulent region. “We did not refuse anyone, there were no applications,” Lyagin said, adding though that over 470 international journalists were accredited in Donetsk.

AFP Photo / Genya Savilov

Some 30 international observers were monitoring the voting in Lugansk region, where some 1.8 million are expected to take part in the referendum. “According to a survey, 83% of Lugansk residents are ready to support the Act of state self-rule of the People’s Republic of Lugansk,” said Igor Shakhov, the head of the local election commission.

The referendums, announced back in March, went ahead as planned despite Russian President Putin’s call on pro-federalization activists to postpone them due to the deteriorating and unpredictable security situation in Ukraine.

The Kiev government as well as many western countries, including the US, France and Germany called the referendums “illegal” and urged dialogue between all conflicting parties in Ukraine, at the same time showing no readiness to stop the punitive military operation in the east of the country.

The Unites States and EU have denounced the referendum and said they would not recognize the result of the vote on self-rule held by rebels.

"The so-called referenda in... parts of Lugansk and Donetsk regions were illegal and we do not recognize the outcome. Those who organized the referenda have no democratic legitimacy," said Maja Kocijancic, a spokeswoman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton.

If a majority of voters answer “yes” on Sunday the regions will gain full moral right to officially state they do not accept what is happening in the country, anti-coup protesters say. The combined population of Donetsk and Lugansk industrial regions, rejecting the legitimacy of the coup-installed Kiev authorities, stands at about 6.7 million in a country of 45 million.

I am surprised that the turnover was not above 100% since many apparently voted several times.

 

[vostok]

Another fact of blatant ignorance of Americans. CNN.
https://mtc.cdn.vine.co/r/videos/7E...p4?versionId=ssXz8zoa4mlEGG_82smHdQTsVige1vvc

 

[nangyale]

Another fact of blatant ignorance of Americans. CNN.
https://mtc.cdn.vine.co/r/videos/7E...p4?versionId=ssXz8zoa4mlEGG_82smHdQTsVige1vvc

So Ukraine is in Pakistan according to CNN. Wow

 

[nangyale]

The exact results of the referendum in the Donbass are still unknown, but the following three facts are undeniable:
1) Participation was extremely high.
2) The yes vote won by a landslide.
3) The neo-Nazi junta tried hard, but failed to disrupt the vote.

We also know that the validity of this referendum will be rejected by a crushing majority of UN members. Ditto for the regime in power who has already denounced it has a "farce". As for the Ukie terror squads in the Donbass, they are unlikely to simply pack up and leave. So this begs a simply question:
Is this referendum a non-event or does it matter?

I would argue that far from being a non-event, the outcome of this referendum is a huge development, a watershed really. Why? Because the importance of this referendum is not in its legal acceptance by any party, but in the fact that it now makes undeniable a fact which previously could not be established with certainty: the Donbass does not want to be part of Banderastan.

In a last ditch attempt to deny the undeniable the New York Times published an article on May 8th entitled "Ukrainians Favor Unity, Not Russia, Polls Find" claiming that most Ukrainians, including Russian-speakers, wanted to remain in unitary Ukraine. Notice in the chart Pew goes as far as saying that 70% of the East Ukrainians including 58% Russian speakers want to remain in a United Ukraine. This is a direct quote form Pew:
Among Ukrainians, 77% say Ukraine should remain united, compared with 14% who think regions should be permitted to secede if they so desire. In Ukraine’s west, which includes the central region around Kyiv (Kiev), as well as portions of the country that border Poland, Slovakia and Hungary, more than nine-in-ten (93%) think their nation should remain unified. A smaller majority (70%) in the country’s east – which includes areas along the Black Sea and the border with Russia – also prefer unity. Only in the breakaway territory of Crimea do more than half (54%) voice support for the right to secede.
Now, thanks to this referendum, this fairy tale is dead. Oh sure, the western corporate media will do the "patriotic" thing and claim that the referendum was badly organized, grossly undemocratic, that people had to vote under the threat of the barrel of a gun, etc.
Actually, that last point is true: the people of the Donbass did have to vote under the barrel of a gun except, of course, that that gun was held by the various various Ukrainian death squads. One such unit called the "Dniper special battalion" played a particularly vicious and ugly role in the shooting of unarmed civilians both in Mariupol and in Slaviansk. So yes, the people of the Donbass did vote in a de-facto war zone, "under the barrel of a gun", there was terror all around the polling stations, but it was Ukrainian terror. In Slaviansk people literally voted at the sound of gunfire and even mortar fire.
And the people of the Donbass were not deterred - they did vote and they voted in favor of sovereignty.
Elections, of course, can be faked. But not when the participation is very high and with figures in the 75%-100% range, not place where almost every person has a phone with a video of photo camera, not in an elections where people are more than happy to wait for hours in line to vote and not in an election were the ballot count is public and each ballot in counted three times. The western corporate media can make all the claims it wants, but, just as with Crimea, this is a lost battle and the propaganda machine will have to throw in the towel pretty soon. If they persist in explaining it all away with Russian agents, GRU Spetsnaz infiltrators or "terrorists" they will just further ridicule themselves.
Furthermore, this referendum puts the junta in Kiev in a terrible situation: not only did its repressive machine not succeed in taking a single city under control (not even surrounded Slaviansk!) but now everybody on the junta's side will have to admit to himself that this is a lost battle. Even if the Ukie "special" (i.e., terror) forces were replaced by real combat units who could easily take many cities under control, this would not resolve the issue of what to do next. Think about it: so you finally "got", say, Slaviansk, you murdered part of the population and terrorized the other. What now? What do you do next? Short of putting the equivalent of an SS battalion in each city of the Donbass there is no way of keeping everybody terrorized and accounted for. The longer you stay the worse things will look for you. So what is the point?
I honestly don't see a solution in the Donbass, not for the junta and not for the Empire. The smartest thing they could do would be to cut their losses and retreat from the Lugansk and Donetsk regions, but that would immediately create two more headaches: first, other regions, including Odessa, will almost certainly follow that example and, second, the Donbass is where the money is. That is by far the richest, most developed, part of the Ukraine. The loss of Crimea is bad enough, but losing the Donbass is even worse. But how do you hold on such a huge region with forces which failed to even adequately terrorize a small city like Slaviansk?
At this point a lunatic like Oleg Liashko would probably suggest that heavy artillery and airstrikes should be used to simply flatten any rebellious city. There are two problems with that: a) that is hardly going to make the junta in Kiev more popular and b) that would guarantee a Russian air/missile strike on Ukie artillery positions and/or the imposition of a no-fly zone. And if the local authorities officially appeal to Russia for protection there would be a very real risk for the Right Sector thugs and the "Dniper Special Battalion" to find themselves suddenly faced some very polite and absolutely ruthless "armed men in green". Russia could also send in just a few specialized diversionary teams like the FSB's Vympel or the SVR's Zaslon which could eliminate the local field commanders of the junta in the Donbass while making it all look like accidents.
The bottom line is this: following the referendum, Kiev has no more viable options left. In contrast, Moscow has plenty of options, all pretty good.
First, Moscow can decide to suspend the recognition of the results of the referendum just like it had refrained from recognizing the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia until 08.08.08. The message would be simple: "be good or else we will do an 08.08.08 on you".
Moscow could also choose to deliberately exacerbate the situation and declare that this referendum did express the will of the people and that from now on Moscow will not back any solution which would not recognize the Donbass as a sovereign state. In this case, the Kremlin could well decide to openly send in military equipment and advisers.
Either way, we know that Psaki will continue to deny the obvious, and that Hollande and Merkel will try get the EU to impose further sanctions but that is about all they could do and, frankly, Russia couldn't care less.
Logically, the center of gravity of the Ukrainian "creeping civil war" will move to the cities of Kherson, Dniepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Zaporozhie and especially Odessa - a much larger region that the one which just voted in the referendum.

The only relatively good news for the junta is that the three regions which have in one way or another seceded so far are also the ones in which the absolute majority of the population spoke Russian. They are shown in dark green in the language map. This map, by the way, is an 'official' map which is highly misleading: in reality the number of regions which speak primarily Russian in much bigger and includes Odessa, Dniepropetrovsk and even Kiev, but that is besides the point. The point of this map is to show that even "official Kiev" knew and "sort of admitted" that Lugansk, Donetsk and Crimea were even less "Ukrainian" than any other region.
I fully expect the junta to go ahead with the planned Presidential election (even though what powers this President remains unknown since nobody knows what the future Ukrainian Constitution will be like). In fact, by removing such regions as Lugansk, Donetsk or Crimea this will strongly alter the overall balance of Ukrainian vs Russian speakers in the country. Remember that Yanukovich was always elected with pretty thin majorities? Now it might well be that a majority of the people of what is left of the Ukraine would at least have Ukrainian as their main language. Still, speaking Ukrainian does not necessarily make you a Galician, a neo-Nazi or a rabid russophobe and the more "pro-Russian" regions break away from Banderastan the more the national question will be gradually replaced by the economic one.
The question now is whether the junta will continue wasting its already mostly depleted resources on fighting an unwinnable war against the Donbass or whether they will concentrate their forces in regions where something might still be salvaged. So far, the AngoZionist Empire and its puppet-junta have literally done everything wrong: they missed every single possibility to seek a negotiated solution, they have rejected numerous offers of dialog from Moscow, they have steadfastly refused to see the reality on the ground and at every step of the way they have made things worse for everybody, including themselves. Will the outcome of this referendum in the Donbass be enough to force them all to open their eyes to reality? I personally doubt it very much. I can't think of a single person in government in the West which has shown even a modicum of pragmatism: Obama and Kerry are clearly completely out of touch with reality and nobody dares to disobey their crazy orders.
Will Banderastan have to shrink to the size of the Lvov and Ivano-Frankovsk regions to open their eyes to the fact that more than anything else it is their own crazy self-defeating policies which are destroying the country which for 22 years used to be the Ukraine?
I honestly don't know.
The Saker

 

[American Eagle]

Why has Mr. Putin caused all this bloodshed and trouble when before he had a peaceful working production relationship with Ukraine with these contracted out items being manufactured in a free enterprise for profit system for Russia inside sovereign Ukraine?

(Gene Thorp / The Washington Post)

Every city named in related postings is included in this map of key services or natural resources which Mr. Putin wants ownership of now. These services, resources and cities are the economic heart of Ukraine.

Shall we return to the time of Machiavelli when we had warring city-states? The so-called leaders of what would be in effect city states are either business failures, government/political failutures, or both types of failures. "Some" leadership. Murdering thugs who call the acting government in Kiev Nazis, but "those Nazis" were in part led by the now ex-President of Ukraine who has fled to Russia where President Putin named him Special Adviser on Ukranian Affairs. Etc.

Note how Russia's military deployments, never withdrawn as stated to have already been done last week by Mr. Putin, match up with the locations of the services and resources Russia gets or got from Ukraine until now.

RUSSIA'S BUILD UP ON THE UKRAINIAN BORDER

By Gene Thorp, Published: May 2, 2014
Russia has been conducting military exercises with 45,000 combat troops on the eastern border of Ukraine since March 13, destabilizing the eastern part of the country and stoking fears in Kiev of an imminent invasion. The map below is based on a paper released by the Royal United Services Institute in April that details which Russian units have been mobilized and where they are operating. Further analysis by The Washington Post shows where these Russian units have come from and what portion of Russia's regionally available combat forces have been shifted to the Ukrainian border. Related story.

SOURCE: RUSI, Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, Ukraine White Book, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Global Security, National Defense University.

 

[nangyale]

R2P, Anyone?
Ukraine: the Waiting Game
by PEPE ESCOBAR
Everything one needs to know about mediocre political elites allegedly representing the “values” of Western civilization has been laid bare by their reaction to the referendums in Donetsk and Lugansk.

The referendums may have been a last-minute affair; organized in a rush; in the middle of a de facto civil war; and on top of it at gunpoint – supplied by the Kiev NATO neo-liberal neo-fascist junta, which even managed to kill some voters in Mariupol. An imperfect process? Yes. But absolutely perfect in terms of graphically depicting a mass movement in favor of self-rule and political independence from Kiev.

This was direct democracy in action; no wonder the US State Department hated it with a vengeance. [1]

Turnout was huge. The landslide victory for independence was out of the question. Same for transparency; a public vote, in glass ballot boxes, with monitoring provided by Western journalists – mostly from major German media but also from the Kyodo News Agency or the Washington Post.

What should come after the Donetsk People’s Republic proclaimed itself a sovereign state, and asked Moscow to consider its accession into Russia, is not secession, nor outright civil war, but a negotiation.

That’s clear by the Kremlin’s measured official reaction: “Moscow respects the will of the people in Donetsk and Lugansk and hopes that the practical realization of the outcome of the referendums will be carried out in a civilized manner.”

The cautious tone is also reflected by the Kremlin urging the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to help broker the negotiation.

Yet once again, there’s concrete proof that the NATO neo-liberal neo-fascist junta does not want to negotiate anything. Farcical “acting” President Oleksandr Turchynov labeled the exercise in direct democracy a “farce, which terrorists call the referendum”; and Washington and Brussels branded it “illegal”.

And all this after the Odessa massacre; after the deployment of neo-nazi paramilitaries disguised as a “National Guard” (the goons US corporate media calls “Ukrainian nationalists”); dozens of CIA and FBI agents on the ground; plus 300 of the inevitable Academi – former Blackwater – mercenaries. What else to expect when the current Ukrainian Secretary for National Security is neo-nazi Andriy Parubiy, the previous commander of the Maidan’s “self-defense forces” and a cheerleader of World War II nazi collaborator Stepan Bandera.

Banderastan – with its remix of 1980s Central American-style death squads – doesn’t do referendums; they’d rather burn to death ethnic Russian civilian “insects” who dare to occupy buildings.

So this is the key message of the referendums. We reject the Kiev NATO neo-liberal neo-fascist junta. It’s an illegal “government” of putschists. We are not “pro-Russian” separatists. We don’t want to secede. What we want is a unified, federal and civilized Ukraine, with strong autonomous provinces.

R2P, anyone?

The Empire of Chaos wants – what else – chaos. Crucially, the Empire of Chaos now blatantly supports the deployment of an “army against their own population”; this was strictly verboten – punishable by NATO bombs or NATO-enabled jihad – in Libya and Syria, but now is just the new normal in Ukraine.

In Libya and in Syria – they tried three times at the UN – this would be the ultimate pretext for R2P (“responsibility to protect”). But in Ukraine the “terrorists” – Dubya-era terminology included – are the population, and the good guys are the Kiev neo-nazi militias. US ambassador to the UN and top R2P cheerleader Samantha Power exceeded all her previous levels of batshit craziness when she depicted the NATO junta onslaught against civilians as “reasonable” and “proportional”, adding that “any of our countries” would have done the same in face of such a threat.

Berlin, for its part, wants, tentatively, to go the diplomatic way, although there’s a clear split between stony Atlanticists and German captains of industry – who have identified clearly how Washington is aiming no holds barred to destroy the Russo-German economic synergy. The Empire of Chaos’s game is to erect a wall between them, manifested in practice by a Russian “invasion”. It’s true that Moscow could easily pull a Samantha and invoke R2P to protect Russians and Russophones in Ukraine. But chessmaster Putin knows better than to invent a new Afghanistan in his western borderlands.

For Berlin all that matters is the economy. Germany will grow by 1.9% at best in 2014. With 6,200 German businesses in Russia and over 300,000 German jobs depending on two-way trade, American-style sanctions are beyond counter-productive, although Russophobia and Cold War 2.0 hysteria remains somewhat rampant.

Paris, for instance, has seen the writing on the wall. The US$1.66 billion contract to sell two Mistral-class helicopter carriers to Russia will go ahead, as Paris diplomats admitted the cancellation – in terms of penalties and lost jobs – would hurt France much more than Russia.

Over a month ago, on April 10, Putin sent a crucial letter to the 18 heads of state (five of them outside of the EU) whose countries import Russian gas via Ukraine. He was more than explicit; Moscow could not by itself keep financing the about-to-default Ukrainian economy. Between discount after discount and failing to impose penalty after penalty, since 2009 Moscow has subsided Kiev to the tune of an astonishing $35.4 billion. Europeans, Putin wrote, would also have to come to the table.

That spectacular nullity, outgoing European Commission (EC) President Jose Manuel Barroso, although agreeing a dialogue is necessary, answered that Gazprom’s new rule of only allowing gas to flow to Ukraine if paid in advance was “worrying”. As if any European energy major would gladly dismiss unpaid bills.

A neutral, Finlandized Ukraine would finish off for good the current mess. It’s just a matter of waiting for the NATO neo-liberal neo-fascist junta to go broke, and frozen to death.

Pepe Escobar is the author of Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War (Nimble Books, 2007), Red Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during the surge and Obama does Globalistan (Nimble Books, 2009). He may be reached at pepeasia@yahoo.com.