Questionable BBS GDP Statistics

[Khan_21]

Dhaka is an unplanned concrete jungle which is over populated beyond repair so it is unfair to judge Bangladesh's economic growth by what Dhaka looks like.
Bangladesh is growing fast - anyone who travels around the country can tell by the improving rural infrastructure (roads, electricity distribution, etc.) , increased mechanisation of farming, etc..

The issue here is accruacy of BBS data.

This is my point exactly. It is growing no doubt but not to the extent that the government is making it out to be. At this point its just funny following a new press conference every month with a minister saying our per capita has increased so and so.

 

[Indos]

Dhaka is an unplanned concrete jungle which is over populated beyond repair so it is unfair to judge Bangladesh's economic growth by what Dhaka looks like.
Besides, Bangladesh rarely takes out loans for cosmetic projects. Whatever Dhaka has is mostly locally funded.

Bangladesh is growing fast - anyone who travels around the country can tell by the improving rural infrastructure (roads, electricity distribution, etc.) , increased mechanisation of farming, new factories, mushrooming high end eateries and shopping centres, etc..

The issue here is accruacy of BBS data.

Does the breakdown data is revealed by BBS ? I mean how much percentage of domestic consumption to GDP, how much percentage of manufacturing/services/agricultural industry to GDP?

 

[Destranator]

Does the breakdown data is revealed by BBS ? I mean how much percentage of domestic consumption to GDP, how much percentage of manufacturing/services/agricultural industry to GDP?

Yes but at a high level. They do not reveal how they work out their industry specific data which is the main cause for concern. There have been historical accusations against BBS of calculating overall GDP backwards to arrive at the minister's personal projection at the beginning of the Fiscal Year.

বাংলাদেশ পরিসংখ্যান ব্যুরো

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bangladesh 2022-2023(p)(upload:16-05-2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bangladesh 2021-22(Final)(upload:05-02-2023) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bangladesh 2021-2022 (p) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bangladesh, 2020-21 (Final) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of

www.bbs.gov.bd

 

[Black_cats]

This is my point exactly. It is growing no doubt but not to the extent that the government is making it out to be. At this point its just funny following a new press conference every month with a minister saying our per capita has increased so and so.

You came at it again. Even if BBS data is not accurate it can not be by big margin like government is saying 8% but in reality it’s 3-4%. At most it can be like 7%. The thing is you can not fake data for long by big margin. Bangladesh is maintaining 6% plus growth for around 20 years now. That represent the strength of the economy not faking data.

 

[Indos]

Yes but at a high level. They do not reveal how they work out their industry specific data which is the main cause for concern.

বাংলাদেশ পরিসংখ্যান ব্যুরো

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bangladesh 2022-2023(p)(upload:16-05-2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bangladesh 2021-22(Final)(upload:05-02-2023) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bangladesh 2021-2022 (p) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bangladesh, 2020-21 (Final) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of

www.bbs.gov.bd

Indonesia has dominant domestic market into GDP, around 50 %. Usually the growth of retail sales is not different with the total GDP growth

For industry sector, we can see on PMI data released by IHS Markit. I see correlation on the GDP growth as well with this as I see from experience

Agricultural growth can be seen on the export and import data, I mean if you import huge rice from India, I believe the growth will be bleak since majority of agriculture product for BD must be rice cultivation

 

[Black_cats]

Does the breakdown data is revealed by BBS ? I mean how much percentage of domestic consumption to GDP, how much percentage of manufacturing/services/agricultural industry to GDP?

Here the right question is whether a big portion of the growth is coming from formal or informal or black economy as black economy also counted towards GDP. Plus high value mega projects that are going on also adding to the GDP but Bangladesh needs a sustainable growth.

I am not economist but a big portion of the retail sales has no paper trail that you will calculate accurately as a result government losing big portion of vat.

 

[UKBengali]

This has been going on for a long time now. There are so many articles accusing them of data fudging to make themselves look good. Who keeps on doing press conferences every month to give an updated per capita income?

Posters like @UKBengali @Black_cats @BananaRepublicUK have convinced themselves otherwise. Dhaka looks like an African city but the way they keep spinning these figures it will soon surpass Dubai on datasheets.

If this gives you some comfort so be it.

The fact is that IMF and all the major organisations believe BD data and so who are you to question them?

Here are some facts:

1. BD exports are likely to hit 60 billion US dollars this year on the back of 40% export growth.

2. Russia lent BD 11.5 billion US dollars at commercial rates to build a nuclear power station - are you saying Russians are stupid and did not really check BD economic health before doing so?

3. BD is exporting electronics such as TVs to lots of Western countries now and it's exports will surpass 100 million US dollars this year from only a few million 2 years ago. It has reached "critical mass" now and they think 3 billion US dollars in exports by 2025. This is a projection but you would have to be fool to bet against this company now.

4. BD even lends money( 250 million US dollars) to Sri lanka and was asked for another 250 million recently. Which country that is fudging its gdp figures is able to lend money? Can Pakistan even think about doing this ever.

5. The whole country is one giant construction area like China was 10-20 years ago.

For your own sake, just let it go. In 5-10 years time BD's transformation will HIT YOU LIKE A TON OF BRICKS and it will leave you BUZZING with SHOCK AND ANGER at how this can come about.

 

[Indos]

Here the right question is whether a big portion of the growth is coming from formal or informal or black economy as black economy also counted towards GDP. Plus high value mega projects that are going on also adding to the GDP but Bangladesh needs a sustainable growth.

I am not economist but a big portion of the retail sales has no paper trail that you will calculate accurately as a result government losing big portion of vat.

Formal sales growth I believe will be similar with informal sales growth. This is just logic, raising demand will go to both formal and informal sector. I just want to see the growth number whether it is similar with total GDP growth number, not the total aggregate number which is difficult to be assessed for some one with no data at all

 

[Indos]

If this gives you some comfort so be it.

The fact is that IMF and all the major organisations believe BD data and so who are you to question them?

Here are some facts:

1. BD exports are likely to hit 60 billion US dollars this year on the back of 40% export growth.

2. Russia lent BD 11.5 billion US dollars at commercial rates to build a nuclear power station - are you saying Russians are stupid and did not really check BD economic health before doing so?

3. BD is exporting electronics such as TVs to lots of Western countries now and it's exports will surpass 100 million US dollars this year from only a few million 2 years ago. It has reached "critical mass" now and they think 3 billion US dollars in exports by 2025. This is a projection but you would have to be fool to bet against this company now.

4. BD even lends money( 250 million US dollars) to Sri lanka and was asked for another 250 million recently. Which country that is fudging its gdp figures is able to lend money? Can Pakistan even think about doing this ever.

5. The whole country is one giant construction area like China was 10-20 years ago.

For your own sake, just let it go. In 5-10 years time BD's transformation will HIT YOU LIKE A TON OF BRICKS and it will leave you BUZZING with SHOCK AND ANGER at how this can come about.

Bro, BD trade is in deficit ( export-import ), the balance will actually decrease BD GDP figure

So the main thing is for BD :

1. Domestic Consumption
2. Investment ( FDI + Domestic Investment )
3. Government spending ( can be seen on the state budget )

 

[UKBengali]

Bro, BD trade is in deficit ( export-import ), the balance will actually decrease BD GDP figure

So the main thing is for BD :

1. Domestic Consumption
2. Investment ( FDI + Domestic Investment )
3. Government spending ( can be seen on the state budget )

You forget remittance inflow from expatriates.


Also a lot of us settled abroad give money to our relatives back home all the time. From just my family you are looking at thousands of US dollars per year to our relations back home and charity to the poor.

 

[Indos]

You forget remittance inflow from expatriates.


Also a lot of us settled abroad give money to our relatives back home all the time. From just my family you are looking at thousands of US dollars per year to our relations back home and charity to the poor.

The inflow will not change GDP number unless it is used to buy something which is made in BD or service provided by BD companies ( or informal business ) or used to make investment. All data that I provided minus gov spending

 

[UKBengali]

The inflow will not change GDP number unless it is used to buy something which is made in BD or service provided by BD companies ( or informal business )

Yes that is exactly what it is used for.

That is how BD has managed to get to nearly 50 billion US dollars in foreign reserves despite having a trade deficit for many decades.

BD consumers buy very few products that are not mainly produced in BD.

 

[Khan_21]

If this gives you some comfort so be it.

The fact is that IMF and all the major organisations believe BD data and so who are you to question them?

Here are some facts:

1. BD exports are likely to hit 60 billion US dollars this year on the back of 40% export growth.

2. Russia lent BD 11.5 billion US dollars at commercial rates to build a nuclear power station - are you saying Russians are stupid and did not really check BD economic health before doing so?

3. BD is exporting electronics such as TVs to lots of Western countries now and it's exports will surpass 100 million US dollars this year from only a few million 2 years ago. It has reached "critical mass" now and they think 3 billion US dollars in exports by 2025. This is a projection but you would have to be fool to bet against this company now.

4. BD even lends money( 250 million US dollars) to Sri lanka and was asked for another 250 million recently. Which country that is fudging its gdp figures is able to lend money? Can Pakistan even think about doing this ever.

5. The whole country is one giant construction area like China was 10-20 years ago.

For your own sake, just let it go. In 5-10 years time BD's transformation will HIT YOU LIKE A TON OF BRICKS and it will leave you BUZZING with SHOCK AND ANGER at how this can come about.

No I don't think fake figures are going to hit my face. You are behind in PPP per capita terms and nominal as well if you stop fudging it every month.

BTW with nominal we have let rupee free float. Takka is artificially held and pegged to the dollar hence the fake and inflated size.

 

[damiendehorn2]

No I don't think fake figures are going to hit my face. You are behind in PPP per capita terms and nominal as well if you stop fudging it every month.

BTW with nominal we have let rupee free float. Takka is artificially held and pegged to the dollar hence the fake and inflated size.

Actually the Taka is deliberately undervalued not over valued. This is to help in our exports, same thing that China has been doing for some time.

 

[UKBengali]

No I don't think fake figures are going to hit my face. You are behind in PPP per capita terms and nominal as well if you stop fudging it every month.

BTW with nominal we have let rupee free float. Takka is artificially held and pegged to the dollar hence the fake and inflated size.

Here are some IMF figures for average annual GDP per capita growth PPP of BD and Pakistan over the last 2 decades.

2000-2009 BD 4.5% Pakistan 2.5%
2010-2019 BD 5.8% Pakistan 2.0%

Currently BD is set to grow it's per capita 6-7% this year compared to 2% for Pakistan.

IMF also says that both BD and Pakistan are tied at per capita PPP at the 6.5K USD mark.

These are all PER CAPITA PPP growth rates and so are 100% reliable.

What do you think is going to happen in by say 2040 dude if historical growth rate holds as looks likely?


I have calculated and worked out that BD in per capita PPP will be 2.2x that of Pakistan and the two countries will look totally different both in terms of the way their towns and cities look, infrastructure and the living standards of their citizens.


PS - I am being VERY CONSERVATIVE for BD as it looks likely to grow it's per capita at more like 7%+ between now and 2040 and so then we would have an even greater difference like 3x. Then reality will HIT YOU LIKE A TON OF BRICKS and it will HURT VERY BADLY and your world will be SHATTERED.