Putin surveys Russia’s foreign relations - Indian Punchline
The annual ritual of any ‘Russia watcher’ to scan the Kremlin’s yearend communications addressed to foreign leaders is always rewarding to discern estimations and expectations, nuances and priorities in the Russian policies. Russia is an old practitioner of international diplomacy and this yearend’s greetings (”congratulations”) from President Vladimir Putin to foreign leaders again stimulate thinking.
2013 has turned to be an year of fabulous accomplishments for Russia’s ‘post-Soviet’ foreign policy. (That deserves another blog, though). Of course, what stands out in the entire compilation of the Kremlin’s communications this year, here, is that Putin has given the pride of place to Russia’s relations with India.
Putin has never hidden the priority he personally attaches to Russia’s “privileged strategic partnership” with India. He has written to the Indian leadership that he is confident that in the coming period, “Russian-Indian privileged partnership based on age-long traditions of friendship and mutual respect will be enhanced and filled with new meaning.”
What is surprising, however, is that the frustratingly slow accumulation of actual ‘content’ in the Russian-Indian economic ties does not seem to affect the Russian thinking — although, both Russia and India have a foreign policy that is driven by economic diplomacy. Clearly, Moscow takes the long-term perspective and also has a deep conviction regarding India’s importance in the contemporary world.
Yet, Putin’s promise that 2014 will witness the reservoir of friendship and mutual respect being “enhanced and filled with new meaning” is intriguing. Such expressions are not bandied about casually in the Russian diplomatic idiom.
In comparison, the message to China’s President Xi JInping — Putin greeted both President Pranab Mukherjee and Prime MInister Manmohan Singh — is cordial and appropriate. But it doesn’t live up to the western perception that a Sino-Russian ‘alliance’ is in the making, as a well-known professor and old ‘Sovietologist’ from Princeton argued with me (in vain) recently.
On the other hand, two other messages stand out — addressed to Tokyo and Tel Aviv. Putin tells Japan’s prime minister Shinzo Abe that Russia hopes to continue with the recent trend of “active joint work on current problems in the Asia-Pacific region.” Hmm. There was no such joint action plan for Asia-Pacific proposed in Putin’s message to Xi. (See may article India, Russia and Abe’s posturing.) We may also factor in that Putin is heading for Tokyo after the Winter Olympics in Sochi for what seems to be shaping up as a historic event in the tumultuous relationship between Russia and Japan.
Interestingly, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu lost no time Wednesday to dial up the Kremlin and speak to Putin to convey condolences over the deaths caused in the two recent terrorist strikes in southern Russia. ‘Bibi’ has struck a wonderful personal equation with Putin. He twice visited Moscow after Putin returned to the Kremlin. Russian-speaking Avigdor Lieberman also chose Moscow as one of his early destinations after reassuming the post of foreign minister.
Of course, Putin visited Israel, too, early in this term as president. The warmth is reflected in Putin’s message. Putin underscored the “dynamic development” of Russian-Israeli relations in the past year. Although the conflict in Syria and the Iran question ought to have worked as hurdle in Russian-Israeli ties (as it happened to Russian-Saudi relations), the two countries which are famous for their keen eye for realism in politics have developed “close cooperation on the issues of bilateral agenda as well as on numerous regional and international issues.”
Putin describes Russia’s relations with Israel as “in the interests of stability and security in the Middle East.” The statement will resonate in the region at a time when Russia has ‘returned’ to the Middle East.
Indeed, the big question for the world energy market will be whether Bibi welcomes Gazprom into the Leviathan gas fields in 2014. Russia recently got rights to explore Syria’s offshore areas in the eastern Mediterranean, which are rumored to be as fabulous as the Leviathan.
Come to think of it, Russia would empathize in certain ways with Israel’s angst over the US-Iranian normalization. Iran holds a wild card, namely, its entry into the European market as a major energy exporter where Russia has been predominant so far. But Putin also attaches high importance to Russia’s strategic understanding with Iran and Israel will not be allowed to erode it. On the other hand, Bibi’s travails with US president Barack Obama will most certainly be noted in Moscow, but the Kremlin would have no illusions over the resilience of US-Israeli ties, either.
Russia’s own ties with the US have passed through a difficult year and the likelihood of matters improving dramatically in 2014 appears rather slim — unless Obama shows willingness, principally, to accommodate Russia’s concerns over the missile defence issue. If Washington had notions about piling pressure on Putin and weakening him incrementally by interfering in Russian politics, they proved to be delusionary, but missile defence remains a major problem as it is linked to the overall US-Russian strategic balance on a global level.
Considering that Russia is no more a communist country (and doesn’t even claim to practice socialism with Russian characteristics), the noticeable warmth in Putin’s message to the leadership in Cuba and Venezuela needs to be understood partly at least — aside Russia’s strong economic diplomacy — as a reflection of the climate of US-Russia relations. In fact, Putin hails the late Hugo Chavez as a “great friend of Russia”.
Thus, Putin’s message to Obama has been predictable. It hints that the Russian-American working relationship for destroying Syrian’s chemical weapon stockpiles could be a pattern for cooperation on what is otherwise a bleak landscape, as it “clearly demonstrated how, acting in the spirit of partnership and on the basis of respecting one another” much could be achieved to enhance global stability and to resolve even the most difficult international issues.
Will Obama accept the proposition? Seems to me to be improbable. Apart from Obama’s great aloofness (not only toward Putin but to his peer group in general) — unless the US’s vital interests or core concerns are in the crosshairs such as when he phoned Iran’s president Hassan Rouhani in the latter’s limousine as he was driving to the Kennedy airport through the New York traffic — the US-Russia relationship will remain a transactional relationship with both sides working on areas where there is convergence of interests and otherwise going each other’s way.
There was a time in the most recent years when the US needed Russia to pile pressure on Iran, but now there is a new paradigm. The US has a direct engagement with Iran — and, in fact, it will resent any third-party interference. In Afghanistan, the US and NATO have their geopolitical agenda, which Moscow understands pretty well, but on the other hand Afghan security remains a core concern for Russia.
On Syria, Moscow’s consistent position stands vindicated, and the US is working with Russia and increasingly understands the need to isolate and counter the al-Qaeda groups operating there for which the leadership of Bashar Al-Assad may have to remain — we’re not quite there yet, but Obama would sense it already.
All in all, however, the US is unprepared to deal with Russia on an equal footing. That is the crux of the matter. Indeed, Bill Clinton presidency’s approach (crafted by Strobe Talbott) in the 1990s to take Russia for granted will not work anymore, nor the George W. Bush era’s neocon belief (piloted ably by secretary of state Condoleeza Rice) that the US could punish Russia and “ignore” it. The point is, Russia has arrived, it’s sitting right there at the high table of world politics and its presence is becoming compelling by the day. But is Obama seeing — the disdainful statesman narrowly focused on the US’ self-interests? He is skipping the inaugural of the Sochi Winter Olympics in February and we may cool our heels till the Nuclear Security Summit at The Hague (March 24-25) or the G8 summit in Sochi (June 4-5) to get an answer
The annual ritual of any ‘Russia watcher’ to scan the Kremlin’s yearend communications addressed to foreign leaders is always rewarding to discern estimations and expectations, nuances and priorities in the Russian policies. Russia is an old practitioner of international diplomacy and this yearend’s greetings (”congratulations”) from President Vladimir Putin to foreign leaders again stimulate thinking.
2013 has turned to be an year of fabulous accomplishments for Russia’s ‘post-Soviet’ foreign policy. (That deserves another blog, though). Of course, what stands out in the entire compilation of the Kremlin’s communications this year, here, is that Putin has given the pride of place to Russia’s relations with India.
Putin has never hidden the priority he personally attaches to Russia’s “privileged strategic partnership” with India. He has written to the Indian leadership that he is confident that in the coming period, “Russian-Indian privileged partnership based on age-long traditions of friendship and mutual respect will be enhanced and filled with new meaning.”
What is surprising, however, is that the frustratingly slow accumulation of actual ‘content’ in the Russian-Indian economic ties does not seem to affect the Russian thinking — although, both Russia and India have a foreign policy that is driven by economic diplomacy. Clearly, Moscow takes the long-term perspective and also has a deep conviction regarding India’s importance in the contemporary world.
Yet, Putin’s promise that 2014 will witness the reservoir of friendship and mutual respect being “enhanced and filled with new meaning” is intriguing. Such expressions are not bandied about casually in the Russian diplomatic idiom.
In comparison, the message to China’s President Xi JInping — Putin greeted both President Pranab Mukherjee and Prime MInister Manmohan Singh — is cordial and appropriate. But it doesn’t live up to the western perception that a Sino-Russian ‘alliance’ is in the making, as a well-known professor and old ‘Sovietologist’ from Princeton argued with me (in vain) recently.
On the other hand, two other messages stand out — addressed to Tokyo and Tel Aviv. Putin tells Japan’s prime minister Shinzo Abe that Russia hopes to continue with the recent trend of “active joint work on current problems in the Asia-Pacific region.” Hmm. There was no such joint action plan for Asia-Pacific proposed in Putin’s message to Xi. (See may article India, Russia and Abe’s posturing.) We may also factor in that Putin is heading for Tokyo after the Winter Olympics in Sochi for what seems to be shaping up as a historic event in the tumultuous relationship between Russia and Japan.
Interestingly, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu lost no time Wednesday to dial up the Kremlin and speak to Putin to convey condolences over the deaths caused in the two recent terrorist strikes in southern Russia. ‘Bibi’ has struck a wonderful personal equation with Putin. He twice visited Moscow after Putin returned to the Kremlin. Russian-speaking Avigdor Lieberman also chose Moscow as one of his early destinations after reassuming the post of foreign minister.
Of course, Putin visited Israel, too, early in this term as president. The warmth is reflected in Putin’s message. Putin underscored the “dynamic development” of Russian-Israeli relations in the past year. Although the conflict in Syria and the Iran question ought to have worked as hurdle in Russian-Israeli ties (as it happened to Russian-Saudi relations), the two countries which are famous for their keen eye for realism in politics have developed “close cooperation on the issues of bilateral agenda as well as on numerous regional and international issues.”
Putin describes Russia’s relations with Israel as “in the interests of stability and security in the Middle East.” The statement will resonate in the region at a time when Russia has ‘returned’ to the Middle East.
Indeed, the big question for the world energy market will be whether Bibi welcomes Gazprom into the Leviathan gas fields in 2014. Russia recently got rights to explore Syria’s offshore areas in the eastern Mediterranean, which are rumored to be as fabulous as the Leviathan.
Come to think of it, Russia would empathize in certain ways with Israel’s angst over the US-Iranian normalization. Iran holds a wild card, namely, its entry into the European market as a major energy exporter where Russia has been predominant so far. But Putin also attaches high importance to Russia’s strategic understanding with Iran and Israel will not be allowed to erode it. On the other hand, Bibi’s travails with US president Barack Obama will most certainly be noted in Moscow, but the Kremlin would have no illusions over the resilience of US-Israeli ties, either.
Russia’s own ties with the US have passed through a difficult year and the likelihood of matters improving dramatically in 2014 appears rather slim — unless Obama shows willingness, principally, to accommodate Russia’s concerns over the missile defence issue. If Washington had notions about piling pressure on Putin and weakening him incrementally by interfering in Russian politics, they proved to be delusionary, but missile defence remains a major problem as it is linked to the overall US-Russian strategic balance on a global level.
Considering that Russia is no more a communist country (and doesn’t even claim to practice socialism with Russian characteristics), the noticeable warmth in Putin’s message to the leadership in Cuba and Venezuela needs to be understood partly at least — aside Russia’s strong economic diplomacy — as a reflection of the climate of US-Russia relations. In fact, Putin hails the late Hugo Chavez as a “great friend of Russia”.
Thus, Putin’s message to Obama has been predictable. It hints that the Russian-American working relationship for destroying Syrian’s chemical weapon stockpiles could be a pattern for cooperation on what is otherwise a bleak landscape, as it “clearly demonstrated how, acting in the spirit of partnership and on the basis of respecting one another” much could be achieved to enhance global stability and to resolve even the most difficult international issues.
Will Obama accept the proposition? Seems to me to be improbable. Apart from Obama’s great aloofness (not only toward Putin but to his peer group in general) — unless the US’s vital interests or core concerns are in the crosshairs such as when he phoned Iran’s president Hassan Rouhani in the latter’s limousine as he was driving to the Kennedy airport through the New York traffic — the US-Russia relationship will remain a transactional relationship with both sides working on areas where there is convergence of interests and otherwise going each other’s way.
There was a time in the most recent years when the US needed Russia to pile pressure on Iran, but now there is a new paradigm. The US has a direct engagement with Iran — and, in fact, it will resent any third-party interference. In Afghanistan, the US and NATO have their geopolitical agenda, which Moscow understands pretty well, but on the other hand Afghan security remains a core concern for Russia.
On Syria, Moscow’s consistent position stands vindicated, and the US is working with Russia and increasingly understands the need to isolate and counter the al-Qaeda groups operating there for which the leadership of Bashar Al-Assad may have to remain — we’re not quite there yet, but Obama would sense it already.
All in all, however, the US is unprepared to deal with Russia on an equal footing. That is the crux of the matter. Indeed, Bill Clinton presidency’s approach (crafted by Strobe Talbott) in the 1990s to take Russia for granted will not work anymore, nor the George W. Bush era’s neocon belief (piloted ably by secretary of state Condoleeza Rice) that the US could punish Russia and “ignore” it. The point is, Russia has arrived, it’s sitting right there at the high table of world politics and its presence is becoming compelling by the day. But is Obama seeing — the disdainful statesman narrowly focused on the US’ self-interests? He is skipping the inaugural of the Sochi Winter Olympics in February and we may cool our heels till the Nuclear Security Summit at The Hague (March 24-25) or the G8 summit in Sochi (June 4-5) to get an answer
