Putin Says He'll Limit Cruise Missile Deployments To Get Missile Defense Site Inspections
The Kremlin also wants to block the fielding of missiles to Europe that had been banned under the now defunct INF treaty.
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With Russian and American officials still locked in negotiations over the future of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or New START, the Kremlin has now put its controversial 9M729 ground-launched cruise missile on the table as part of a separate arms control pitch. While Moscow continues to deny it, Washington and its NATO allies say this weapon, also known as the SSC-8 "Screwdriver," violated the terms of the Cold War-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or INF, and it directly led to that agreement's final collapse last year.
Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a formal statement on "additional steps to de-escalate the situation in Europe in the wake of the termination of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty" via the Kremlin's website on Oct. 26, 2020. This comes more than a year after the U.S. government formally withdrew from the INF over the 9M729/SSC-8.
"Given the unrelenting tension between Russia and NATO, new threats to European security are becoming evident," Putin's statement says. "Under these circumstances, active efforts are required to reduce the deficit of trust and to strengthen regional and global stability, as well as to reduce the risks arising from misunderstandings and disagreements in the sphere of missile weapons."
The most significant component of Putin's new post-INF offer is some sort of unspecified "verification measure" that would prove to the United States that there are no 9M729/SSC-8s in its Kaliningrad enclave now and that it would stay that way in the future. This Russian territory, which lies on the Baltic Sea, is geographically separated from the rest of the country, sandwiched between Germany and Poland, two NATO members.
The highly strategic enclave, which is home to major air and naval bases, offers the Russian military an extension of anti-access and area denial bubble in the region, including through the deployment of surface-to-air missile systems and ground-based anti-ship cruise missiles. It also offers a valuable forward base for ballistic missiles and ground-launched land-attack cruise missiles, including the 9M729/SSC-8.
The exact maximum range of the 9M729/SSC-8 is unclear, but the U.S. government said that it violated the INF, which prohibited the United States and Russia from fielding ballistic and ground-based cruise missiles able to hit targets between 300 and 3,400 miles away. With a range of around 1,500 miles, this weapon would be able to hit anywhere in Europe from Kaliningrad. You can read more about what is known as the 9M729/SSC-8 in this past War Zone piece.
In exchange, what Putin is asking for primarily is access to U.S. Aegis Ashore missile defense sites in Europe so that Russian inspectors can similarly verify that they won't be able to launch offensive weapons. While the INF was in effect, the Kremlin routinely accused the United States of violating the deal with Aegis Ashore. However, the U.S. military has long publicly said that the variant of the Mk 41 Vertical Launch System that Aegis Ashore uses lack the fire control components necessary to launch land-attack strike weapons, such as the Tomahawk cruise missile, and there are no plans to install them in the future. Russia has also contended that Aegis Ashore threatens its nuclear deterrent capabilities, something the system is in no way capable of doing.
Putin's statement appears to offer to keep the 9M729/SSC-8 out of Kaliningrad as long as the United States, or any other NATO member, do not field missiles that would have been covered on the defunct INF treaty in Europe. Since the agreement's collapse, the U.S. military has initiated the development of a variety of previously banned weapons, including a ground-based Tomahawk system and a new ballistic missile. The U.S. Army has also now announced that it plans for its future ground-launched Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), now unrestricted by the INF, to have a maximum range of up to 930 miles.
"Remaining committed to the consistent position on the full compliance of the 9M729 missile with the provisions of the previously existing INF Treaty, the Russian Federation, nevertheless, is ready, in the spirit of goodwill, to continue not to deploy 9M729 missiles in European Russia, but do so only provided NATO countries take reciprocal steps that preclude the deployment of the weapons earlier prohibited under the INF Treaty in Europe," Putin's statement said, reiterating Russia's position that the 9M729/SSC-8 did not violate the INF.
It remains to be seen whether the U.S. government will respond favorably to Putin's offer and whether it would be possible for either side to agree to verification mechanisms that satisfy their respective concerns. The United States had previously offered Russia opportunities to inspect the Aegis Ashore sites over INF compliance, but the Kremlin declined. The Russian government also denied the very existence of 9M729/SSC-8 for years before officially revealing it and then claiming it was not in violation of the treaty.
