Potential Silver lining to panga with France - economic discussion only

[313ghazi]

Please limit all discussion to economics. we have plenty of threads for religious, social and political angle of the matter.


1. I think it's extremely unlikely parliament will actually vote to kick out the French ambassador.

2. In the unlikely event that we do, the idea that France and the whole EU will stop trading with us is far fetched.

3. Assuming for a second that both these unlikely things happen I think long term we will stand to benefit.

Why?

- it's not going to be a long term thing, at some point we're going to quietly U turn whilst filling the back channels with nonsense about the govt being backed into a corner by fringe elements and it being an issue with no short term solution. Think Turkish-Israeli ties. We will also likely argue shutting trade harms moderate elements of society whilst empowering the right wing.

- in the period ties are cut, it'd force our industries to create value added products to export to local and new markets, instead of shipping raw materials. For example Africa is not short of raw materials, it does buy finished products.

====

In reality I expect the worst. Parliament to try and screw the govt, govt to make a diplomatic hash of it, EU to react arrogantly and exporters to sit on thier hands or divert thier money into property.

 

[Arsalan345]

It doesn't matter. Do you accept Prophet or not? do you allow any tom dick and harry to insult prophet? core issue is what people thinks and people are very angry. there is a reason for everything. French ambassador or France is not above religion. Nobody cares about stupid trade and French ambassador. Pakistan is already run by elites. They will Destroy this country anyway! There is nothing for common man except religion. Now religion is a sensitive issue and that's why all this is happening.

 

[313ghazi]

It doesn't matter. Do you accept Prophet or not? do you allow any tom dick and harry to insult prophet? core issue is what people thinks and people are very angry. there is a reason for everything. French ambassador or France is not above religion. Nobody cares about stupid trade and French ambassador. Pakistan is already run by elites. They will Destroy this country anyway! There is nothing for common man except religion. Now religion is a sensitive issue and that's why all this is happening.

Listen, we have 7 or 8 different threads for you to bang your religious drum on. Let people who want to talk economics talk about that.

 

[Rollno21]

It doesn't matter. Do you accept Prophet or not? do you allow any tom dick and harry to insult prophet? core issue is what people thinks and people are very angry. there is a reason for everything. French ambassador or France is not above religion. Nobody cares about stupid trade and French ambassador. Pakistan is already run by elites. They will Destroy this country anyway! There is nothing for common man except religion. Now religion is a sensitive issue and that's why all this is happening.

Dude Pakistan govt has to run a country and not a religious school. If religion has to deside the foreign policy of the country then it has no future . I will give you one example ,Pakistan is so much dependent on china and if it starts responding as a muslim country and talks against the muslims being treated by CCP then the relationship is over.

 

[Mrc]

if parliament votes for it , kick french ambassador out,,,

EU is not going to sanction us just for kicking french out...

also getting middle east and turkey onboard would be prime so risk of counter sanction on french companies will keep the ball from rolling any further....

if parliament votes than obey their wishes and be sensible would be the best thing

 

[Smarana Mitra]

It doesn't matter. Do you accept Prophet or not? do you allow any tom dick and harry to insult prophet? core issue is what people thinks and people are very angry. there is a reason for everything. French ambassador or France is not above religion. Nobody cares about stupid trade and French ambassador. Pakistan is already run by elites. They will Destroy this country anyway! There is nothing for common man except religion. Now religion is a sensitive issue and that's why all this is happening.

That is a very correct notion of how the masses are thinking. Pakistan should kick the French ambassador out. Pakistan should also point out the anti-Muslim acts by China and kick out the Chinese ambassador too. Next Pakistan should kick out Indian, Hungarian and Iranian ambassadors. Then Pakistani Quam will finally be satisfied and there will be unity in Pakistan

 

[Goritoes]

Without the help of remaining Muslim countries, Pakistan won't be able to do anything and such incidents will keep happening, what our People need to understand that burning your own country and killing your own people who stop West insulting Prophet.

 

[313ghazi]

@waz @AgNoStiC MuSliM @Foxtrot Alpha @Irfan Baloch gents can we please remove all off topic posts about religion. They will derail my thread.

if parliament votes for it , kick french ambassador out,,,

EU is not going to sanction us just for kicking french out...

also getting middle east and turkey onboard would be prime so risk of counter sanction on french companies will keep the ball from rolling any further....

if parliament votes than obey their wishes and be sensible would be the best thing

Tbh, I don't think we will get any external support from other countries nor should we expect any. They are responsible for thier citizens and we are responsible for ours.

If we want to make emotionally driven decisions we must accept all that comes with it and work around that.

Even in a bad situation the businessmen thinks about where the economic opportunities are. We need to think with that mindset.

In my opinion in the worst case scenario it presents an opportunity to target new markets and mature our industrial output by generating value added products.

 

[Mrc]

@waz @AgNoStiC MuSliM @Foxtrot Alpha @Irfan Baloch gents can we please remove all off topic posts about religion. They will derail my thread.


Tbh, I don't think we will get any external support from other countries nor should we expect any. They are responsible for thier citizens and we are responsible for ours.

If we want to make emotionally driven decisions we must accept all that comes with it and work around that.

Even in a bad situation the businessmen thinks about where the economic opportunities are. We need to think with that mindset.

In my opinion in the worst case scenario it presents an opportunity to target new markets and mature our industrial output by generating value added products.

if you wanna keep your citizens first ... vich btw is islamic way as well,,,,than dont do rash decisions....

play on time of your choosing and field of your choosing...there are several ways to skin a cat

ambassadors are never kicked out even in wars... i dont know where idea came from

 

[Trango Towers]

Please limit all discussion to economics. we have plenty of threads for religious, social and political angle of the matter.


1. I think it's extremely unlikely parliament will actually vote to kick out the French ambassador.

2. In the unlikely event that we do, the idea that France and the whole EU will stop trading with us is far fetched.

3. Assuming for a second that both these unlikely things happen I think long term we will stand to benefit.

Why?

- it's not going to be a long term thing, at some point we're going to quietly U turn whilst filling the back channels with nonsense about the govt being backed into a corner by fringe elements and it being an issue with no short term solution. Think Turkish-Israeli ties. We will also likely argue shutting trade harms moderate elements of society whilst empowering the right wing.

- in the period ties are cut, it'd force our industries to create value added products to export to local and new markets, instead of shipping raw materials. For example Africa is not short of raw materials, it does buy finished products.

====

In reality I expect the worst. Parliament to try and screw the govt, govt to make a diplomatic hash of it, EU to react arrogantly and exporters to sit on thier hands or divert thier money into property.

Ultimately we may see French ambassador give some sort of apology and distance itself. Money is money.
I think pak government handed this badly. Initial response was good. These molvis need harsh treatment

 

[Kambojaric]

Bhai it's being beyond optimistic to think our economy will somehow grow resilient if EU sanctions and trade barriers or an outright trade ban is imposed on Pakistan.

The EU is our largest export destination accounting for almost 20% of our total exports(1). Conversely Pakistan is a marginal trading partner at best for the EU with only 0.2% of the EUs exports headed to Pakistan(2). Everything that Pakistan exports to the EU is easily replaceable by another country. Textile, sporting goods and surgical equipment is mass produced by dozens of other developing nations who provide these items at affordable prices, so we have no economic leverage over the EU.

Meanwhile 20% of our trade disappearing due to an EU ban will send our economy into complete shock mode. The small to medium sized businesses in Sialkot and Faisalabads would collapse and unemployment and poverty would skyrocket bringing with it a whole host of other problems like criminality, drug abuse, prostitution etc.

A strong argument can also be made that where the EU boycotts one body/nation, its allies or similarly politically aligned nations will follow suit. Countries such as the US, Canada, Japan, Australia which are the main consumers of value added products will also likely take a distance from Pakistan. They might not outright impose a trade ban on Pakistan but are far more unlikely to provide preferential treatment to Pakistan in future trade deals, and understandably so. If the writ of the Pakistani state is so weak that it gives in to the demands of every movement, why should they take an unnecessary risk and increase their economic dependence on such an unpredictable and weak partner.

Reality is reality. We have no economic leverage over the EU or the nations that consume value added products. They have made the rules of the worlds economic game and we have to play it or leave and cry in a corner by ourselves about how unjust it is. Fighters adapt to reality, strengthen themselves and make themselves so strong that other players value them and their opinion. Losers quit playing and drown themselves in self-pity about how unjust the world.

When the British took over political and military control of the subcontinent the Muslim community had two choices. Drown themselves in self-pity which a large section of our community did do, or react to the reality and make a place for ourselves and and our future generations as dignified members of society like Sir Syed did when he established the Aligarh University much to the discontent of a large part of the ulema hazrat of that time. The University gave us alumni like Mohammad Ali Johar, Liaqut Ali Khan, Maulana Shaukat Ali, Abdur Rab Nishtar and other leaders and political workers who were instrumental to the Pakistan movement. There is a reason why the Quaid called Aligarh the "Arsenal of Muslim India" (3).

Pakistan in 2021 is also at a crossroads. We can give in to the desire of self-pity which is always the easiest way to deal with a problem or accept reality that the world economic system is driven by a set of countries who currently do not value us or our opinions due to our lack of financial power. Ultimately the goal is for us to grow economically, make other countries reliant on trade with us and then everyone will listen to our religious sensitivities.


1. https://www.pbc.org.pk/research/pakistans-trade-with-the-eu-its-member-states/
2. https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2006/september/tradoc_122530.pdf
3. https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/57...votal-role-in-establishment-of-pakistan-shafi

 

[Imran Khan]

it seems pakistnais think blasphemy means insult of islam only . its ok to insult other religions sects for them



if world start doing it then all pakistani ambassadors will be back in Pakistan . Pakistanis are insulting other religions day and night . just watch famous punjabi stage drama every other drama is insulting Hinduism and christians and thousands in hall chanting . pakistnais have to change the own behavior first . \

lets say qadiyani minority social media is full of insults to them .
i am sure france will grill us further in FATF next month forget to come out in gray list now . our mullahs already damaged our efforts .

 

[Vapnope]

Please limit all discussion to economics. we have plenty of threads for religious, social and political angle of the matter.


1. I think it's extremely unlikely parliament will actually vote to kick out the French ambassador.

2. In the unlikely event that we do, the idea that France and the whole EU will stop trading with us is far fetched.

3. Assuming for a second that both these unlikely things happen I think long term we will stand to benefit.

Why?

- it's not going to be a long term thing, at some point we're going to quietly U turn whilst filling the back channels with nonsense about the govt being backed into a corner by fringe elements and it being an issue with no short term solution. Think Turkish-Israeli ties. We will also likely argue shutting trade harms moderate elements of society whilst empowering the right wing.

- in the period ties are cut, it'd force our industries to create value added products to export to local and new markets, instead of shipping raw materials. For example Africa is not short of raw materials, it does buy finished products.

====

In reality I expect the worst. Parliament to try and screw the govt, govt to make a diplomatic hash of it, EU to react arrogantly and exporters to sit on thier hands or divert thier money into property.

I can tell you that we are very much dependent on EU because of some preferential treatments. We have made a good progress in FATF to a point where they were almost ready to get us out of grey list and if we antagonize EU on this matter we are going to lose that support and we would continue to stay in grey list for years to come.
On some social media platforms, wherever i saw TLP protest videos, European posters posted caricature to mock us and i can assure you that expulsion of french Ambassador will backfire badly.
Imagine that 58 countries still can't come up with a strategy to deal with issue.

 

[Imran Khan]

I can tell you that we are very much dependent on EU because of some preferential treatments. We have made a good progress in FATF to a point where they were almost ready to get us out of grey list and if we antagonize EU on this matter we are going to lose that support and we would continue to stay in grey list for years to come.
On some social media platforms, wherever i saw TLP protest videos, European posters posted caricature to mock us and i can assure you that expulsion of french Ambassador will backfire badly.
Imagine that 58 countries still can't come up with a strategy to deal with issue.

BTW its costing us billions of dollars every year . same like pakistani airlines are banned to enter or overfly EU /USA .we are on self destruction mode .

that aviation minister is already replaced but his gift to pakistan aviation is here years to come .

 

[truthfollower]

it seems pakistnais think blasphemy means insult of islam only . its ok to insult other religions sects for them

pakistanio ko thekaydaar bnny ka keun shok hai her cheeze main. kisi aur muslim mulk main to kuch nae hua