Possibility of a Coup ?

[Levina]

While I am sure the decision taken by the Pak parliament is correct.

My thoughts go to a different angle - & no trolling intended.

Given the fact that there are people in ME who would be smarting at the refusal and it would be seen a huge loss of face and ' back stabbing' by a group on people ( nations) who are not used to taking No as an answer. More so from a nation whom they took to be their backyard.

What are the chances / options of them organising a Coup led by hardline Generals in the Pak army to further the ends of KSA ? There are after all groups in Pak who would like to see PA intervene, such groups lose their relevance & funding with the Pak refusal.

I hope its an impossibility or a long shot, just seeking views / opinions.

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No way!!!
Not now!
If a coup had to happen then it would 've happened when ppl of Pakistan wanted it, I'm talking about last year when mass anti-government protests led by Imran Khan brought the country to a grinding halt. Back then Gen Raheel was able to put down the calls from within the army to take over. A 4th coup is definitely not happening till Gen Raheel Sharif remains COAS.
And even if a coup were to happen then it would not be done to further the interests of GCC, instead I see 3 other reasons why a coup might happen in the future
1) Relations with India:
If Pak and India's relations touch rock bottom, and the border skirmishes increase to an extent where there's no scope for descalation then Army might decide to snatch power from the hands of the existing democratic govt (as the govt desperate attempts to descalation the situation might earn them the ire of Army).

2) Relations with Afghanistan:
Supposing after the withdrawal of U.S./NATO forces from Afghanistan gives rise to a situation where the Afghan govt turns weak and Taliban flexes its pecs again, then assuming that Taliban would be supported by Pak Army, the chances of Afghan SOSing India & Russia (long shot!) for help might cause a tiff between PA and the present govt. I see chances of a coup then. But I must admit this a longgg shot.

3) Relations with China:
Assuming that Uyghur terrorism destabilises Pak's relations with China. And China threatens Pakistan with an attack after finding out that the Uyghur leader Abdullah Mansour is hiding out in Pakistan's mountainous border region with Afghanistan. Then Pakistan's military might feel the need to take over as the civilian govt would struggle to deal with the Chinese threat diplomatically. (This is based on the assumption that Mansour gets PA's support).

And these 're all hypothetical situations which I don't think is gonna take place in the near future, as every country (In South Asia) wants to avoid a war and let their economy recover. So for the time being its a NO to coup.