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Population growth not slowing down

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https://www.thedailystar.net/frontpage/news/population-growth-not-slowing-down-1748065

12:00 AM, May 24, 2019 / LAST MODIFIED: 02:54 AM, May 24, 2019
Population growth not slowing down
Family planning indicators stagnant for 4 yrs
Source: World Bank
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Source: World Bank

Mohammad Al-Masum Molla

There was a time when the family planning policy of Bangladesh was a role model for other countries. The government initiated campaigns and interventions and continues to hold a substantial programme, considering overpopulation a major concern for the country.

Yet the country’s population growth has shown no signs of slowing down over the last four years with the family planning indicators remaining stagnant, according to official data and expert opinions.

With no improvement in the key indicators like total and adolescent fertility rates, contraceptive use and child marriage, Bangladesh remains one of the most densely populated countries in the world.

Take the total fertility rate (TFR) as an example.

TFR is the average number of children a woman would bear during her lifetime. The rate was 2.3 in the 2014 Demographic and Health Survey report and it remained unchanged in the latest study completed in 2017.

The contraceptive prevalence rate is still stuck at 62 percent, according to the 2017 survey. The rate was the same four years ago.

According to the latest national census held in 2011, the country’s population was 142.319 million with the density of 964 inhabitants per square kilometre.

And the country’s population growth rate or average annual change in the population was 1.37 percent.

In the census, the crude death rate stood at 4.8 per thousand and birth rate at 17.88.

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“Inefficient service, less home visit [by family planning officials] and unmet need for contraceptives are the reasons behind this stagnation,” Dr Barkat e Khuda, former professor of Dhaka University, told The Daily Star.

The adolescence fertility rate in Bangladesh is high compared to that in many other countries. Besides, the country is among the top four in the world in terms of child marriage rate, which is another contributing factor as child brides have been documented to be likely to bear more children, he added.

Government officials say the country’s adolescence fertility rate or births per 1,000 women aged 15-19 was 108 per thousand in 2017.

A UN study found 59 percent of the marriages that took place in Bangladesh between 2006 and 2017 involved brides below the age of 18.

Prof Md Mainul Islam, chairperson of population science department at Dhaka University, said adolescent fertility rate remains high and it has not decreased since 2014.

“In 1993-94, it was 33 percent and came down to 30 percent in 2011. But it rose to 31 percent in 2014,” he told The Daily Star.

“Without reducing the adolescent fertility rate, it is impossible to get the fruits of family planning because child marriage and early pregnancy is interlinked with the issue.”

In education, Barkat said, female enrolment rate is increasing but dropout rate remains high, which contributes to early marriages and teenage pregnancy. Female unemployment is also another big factor.

The professor added that quality and sustainable education, vocational and technical trainings, more budgetary allocation in health and education can move forward the family planning campaigns.

Prof Mainul too said there were a host of factors involved in family planning.

“Family planning is not only an issue of birth control. It is an issue of women empowerment. Husband and wife should take decisions collectively about having children, how many and after how long.”

According to the Demographic and Health Survey 2017, only 20 percent respondents were visited by family planning officials once in the last six months, which should have been once every two months. The survey covered 20,250 households across the country.

Experts also say the use of long-acting reversible contraceptives, or methods of birth control that provide effective contraception for an extended period without requiring user action, is also declining. Eight percent people use it but should be 20 percent.

GOVT INITIATIVES, LIMITATIONS
According to the Directorate General of Family Planning (DGFP), the government set up 70 adolescent-friendly health centres called Maa O Shishu Community Shastho Kendra in districts and upazillas. Similar services are provided at 350 union-level health service centres.

“We are planning to ensure such services in all the unions across the country by 2022 to make adolescents aware of the importance of family planning,” Kazi Mustafa Sarwar, director general of DGFP, told The Daily Star.

He said child marriage and adolescence fertility rate are big challenges as RMG workers and people in the slums remain out of family planning.

The government has formed 54 quality improvement teams at the district level and 10 regional teams to make people more cautious and encourage them to go for longer lasting birth control methods.

Apart from this, 12 facilitators were appointed in areas where use of contraceptives is low, like Chattogram, and in hard-to-reach places like haors.

In 1976, Bangladesh government approved a National Population Policy. At that time there were 23,500 family welfare assistants (FWA) but their number has not increased over the years.

“Currently there are 6,500 vacant posts at various levels of the department. We have already hired 3,500 paid volunteers to work in the field. We have signed an MoU with Brac and are hopeful that they will give us 1,500 family welfare assistants who will work until the vacant posts are filled up,” said the director general of DGFP.
 
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It is a big gathering of people walking to their respective destinations. However, once the MetroRail starts functioning, the higher speed of movement of the people will cause less number of people to be seen in the narrow roads/streets of Dhaka. I am certain of this phenomenon. Only a few more years of patience is required. With Metro introduction, Dhaka will become a little more livable city by that time.

However, note the way men and women are dressed, all are well-dressed. It is a far cry from the pre-1971 days when on average people could afford less than 5m of clothes per year due to a shortage of production and unaffordable prices. Our people had to wait for Karachi-made clothes.
 
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Between 1941-51 something happened and population growth came to absolute hault. Something can be done this time around, where they are welcome. When Im in Dhaka city I feel great around more enlightened people. Apart from the traffic jam of course. But when Im on the outskirts of Dhaka narrow streets observing slums with overflowing dirty looking kids, I absolutely like to puke. Every girl barely passed her teenage year has one or two babies. So, I support the rise of living expenses, its indirect tax on population growth; as a result people would like to have less children and late marriages. Also helpful for quick growth of the country. On a funny note some of the poor population not helpful to country can be sent somewhere with Ghar wapasi with the nutjobs in helm, its a golden moment.
 
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Our TFR is around 2.1 which is its replacement level. We encourage people to have 2 children. The TFR should not fall anymore.
The growth rate is due to the fact that we have too many young people who are in productive age and as they grow older, the population growth rate will fall to 0 to negative.
 
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Our TFR is around 2.1 which is its replacement level. We encourage people to have 2 children. The TFR should not fall anymore.
The growth rate is due to the fact that we have too many young people who are in productive age and as they grow older, the population growth rate will fall to 0 to negative.
Even if the Total Fertility Rate now is 2.1, due to factors beyond control, the population will probably continue to increase for a few decades because of millions of small children will reach the productive age by this time and will produce children. Also, slum dwellers have a trend of producing more children than middle-class families. The number of slum dwellers is not very small.

Is it possible that the population will grow to 200 million sometime in 2040? It will be too large. Can someone highlight the demographic forecast?
 
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Even if the Total Fertility Rate now is 2.1, due to factors beyond control, the population will probably continue to increase for a few decades because of millions of small children will reach the productive age by this time and will produce children. Also, slum dwellers have a trend of producing more children than middle-class families. The number of slum dwellers is not very small.

Is it possible that the population will grow to 200 million sometime in 2040? It will be too large. Can someone highlight the demographic forecast?
It suppose to stabilize in 180 to 200 million. No prediction exceeds 200 million
 
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Our TFR is around 2.1 which is its replacement level. We encourage people to have 2 children. The TFR should not fall anymore.
The growth rate is due to the fact that we have too many young people who are in productive age and as they grow older, the population growth rate will fall to 0 to negative.
Bangladesh's current fertility rate is 2.0 to 2.2 child per woman. The recent study by influential The Lancet medical Journal placed BD's fertility rate at 2.0 which is just below replacement rate. We need another DHS report to see whether we already dipped below replacement rate. This report say, stagnant based on just one DHS report. But it is too early to say whether it is really stagnant. It can be just a small plateau. The decline in fertility rate is not linear. It fall rapidly for some years and then enters into plateau phage for few years, then fall again. Many countries usually face such plateau after rapidly declining fertility rate below 3.0 . Twenty years ago, our population was growing at more than 2 percent. Now it is growing at 1 percent. In the next 20-30 years, growth will become zero. By than, our population will stabilize at or below 200 million before gradual decline.
 
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Twenty years ago, our population was growing at more than 2 percent. Now it is growing at 1 percent. In the next 20-30 years, growth will become zero. By than, our population will stabilize at or below 200 million before gradual decline.
BD society has become quite polarized on religion practicers and non-practicers. What is the thinking of all those Mullah groups of people vis-a-vis birth control? Do not they find references to some clauses in the old books that prohibit birth control? Are also they practicing small family?
 
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BD society has become quite polarized on religion practicers and non-practicers. What is the thinking of all those Mullah groups of people vis-a-vis birth control? Do not they find references to some clauses in the old books that prohibit birth control? Are also they practicing small family?
Bangladeshi mullahs are not against birth control. Even the most traditional type of mullah do not oppose it. At least I have never heard them talking aganist birth control. They are mainly focused on Purdah and Zinah. Actually Islam is the most permissive religion towards birth control among the 3 Abrahamic religion. Unlike Bible, there is no equivalent passage in Quran which urge the followers to ''be fruitful and multiply''. And there is no organized opposition to contraceptive and abortion in Islamic societies unlike the Roman Catholic Church. The current relative higher fertility rate among some Muslims is due to lack of human development.
 
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Actually Islam is the most permissive religion towards birth control among the 3 Abrahamic religion. Unlike Bible, there is no equivalent passage in Quran which urge the followers to ''be fruitful and multiply''.
Bold part: Where did you find any direct or indirect reference to birth control in any of the old Books? I think this is your own imagination and a feel-good thing that is not found in those Books.
 
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Bold part: Where did you find any direct or indirect reference to birth control in any of the old Books? I think this is your own imagination and a feel-good thing that is not found in those Books.
Permissive in a sense that, in Islam birth control is not prohibited. You can study about birth control and Islam to know this. But I do not think you will do that as you are not after the truth, you have some preconceived prejudice against Islam and Muslim and I don't think you want to shed that. So, yes turn this thread as your opportunity to bash Bangladeshi Muslim. I do not care.
 
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Bold part: Where did you find any direct or indirect reference to birth control in any of the old Books? I think this is your own imagination and a feel-good thing that is not found in those Books.
I heard there was a hadith which asked people to not take child if they cant afford it.
There was no instruction in Islam where it encourages people to take more children unlike Judaism.
 
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I heard there was a hadith which asked people to not take child if they cant afford it.
There was no instruction in Islam where it encourages people to take more children unlike Judaism.
But, it encourages people to take four wives. Is it not a recipe for ten or twenty children?

@Homo Sapiens, I certainly do not have to like the superstitious, quarrelsome and ignorant Muslims. I am not also willing to go to a Paradise infested with these parasite Muslims, who failed to build up their respective countries and kill each other at the slightest provocation in the name of their faith and fitna, and have many other inhuman qualities. No doubt with their many vices they will convert the Paradise into a real Hell.

I would like to be with meritorious people with knowledge and righteousness during their lives on Earth. I wonder if it will be a fire and fiery Hell because the Muslims are taught they will be the only passengers to the journey to the Paradise world. They superstitiously believe it and do not feel the urge to do righteous things as a living being because Paradise has been guaranteed to them. Please refer to yourself and your surroundings.
 
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But, it encourages people to take four wives. Is it not a recipe for ten or twenty children?

@Homo Sapiens, I certainly do not have to like the superstitious, quarrelsome and ignorant Muslims. I am not also willing to go to a Paradise infested with these parasite Muslims, who failed to build up their respective countries and kill each other at the slightest provocation in the name of their faith and fitna, and have many other inhuman qualities. No doubt with their many vices they will convert the Paradise into a real Hell.

I would like to be with meritorious people with knowledge and righteousness during their lives on Earth. I wonder if it will be a fire and fiery Hell because the Muslims are taught they will be the only passengers to the journey to the Paradise world. They superstitiously believe it and do not feel the urge to do righteous things as a living being because Paradise has been guaranteed to them. Please refer to yourself and your surroundings.

Some people here like to portray rosy picture. I'm sure I heard this Maulana Tarek Monower saying not have any kinds of birth control. Present govt had put many people to places, but this guy seems to be out of leash. This guy's personal life should be checked and banned from future propagation if he is doing something extra. This guy also wants 100% Muslim people in the country through conversion. That I find a nationalistic tone. Later these people can be put something to hotchpotch of things, not related to any old beliefs.
 
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