Poll: Do you think this deal will allow for Iran to eventually develop nuclear weapons ?

[Styx]

I want to know what Iranian members think.

request: everyone is free to discuss here but I'd like the voting to be restricted to Iranian members only.

go !

@2800 @haman10 @Blackmoon @Shahryar Hedayati @JEskandari @Serpentine @raptor22 @rahi2357 @SOHEIL @Gold Eagle @Arminkh .. guys please tag other Iranians too.

 

[haman10]

well i think your options are limited .

this deal can indeed block any efforts of making a nuke for about 15 years or so .

but Iran CAN indeed start working on a nuke afterwards , but the question is : Will she ?

the answer to that is quite simple : due to Fatwa (religious decree) of our leader , NO . we cannot . and this has nothing to do with any deal whatsoever . it's a religious issue .

 

[Max]

the answer to that is quite simple : due to Fatwa (religious decree) of our leader , NO . we cannot . and this has nothing to do with any deal whatsoever . it's a religious issue .

how about if Ayatullah from Najf give fatwa that building nukes for defense is allowed?

 

[haman10]

how about if Ayatullah from Najf give fatwa that building nukes for defense is allowed?

Not gonna happen . Ayatullah sistani is also a shia marja . we shia muslims believe that weapons of mass destruction are haram . because there is no "self defense" purpose for it .

it goes 2 ways :

1- you intend to use it when you're attacked , and you kill hundreds of thousands of people

2- you don't actually intend use it and it's just a show : then building it is mere stupidity and waste of resources .

 

[HttpError]

Not gonna happen . Ayatullah sistani is also a shia marja . we shia muslims believe that weapons of mass destruction are haram . because there is no "self defense" purpose for it .

it goes 2 ways :

1- you intend to use it when you're attacked , and you kill hundreds of thousands of people

2- you don't actually intend use it and it's just a show : then building it is mere stupidity and waste of resources .

Off-topic, is it true that supreme leader Ayatullah has to be a najf born ? I read it somewhere so was curious.

 

[Max]

Not gonna happen . Ayatullah sistani is also a shia marja . we shia muslims believe that weapons of mass destruction are haram . because there is no "self defense" purpose for it .

it goes 2 ways :

1- you intend to use it when you're attacked , and you kill hundreds of thousands of people

2- you don't actually intend use it and it's just a show : then building it is mere stupidity and waste of resources .

The Question is what if i want to use nukes as a tool of preventing wars? isnt that allowed in Islam... lets say in India Pakistani scenario After nukes.. we have 2002 stand off in which both armies were neck to neck whole 2 years on border but no one try to escalate bcoz of nukes and it save us from war... After Mumbai attacks India threaten Us with surgical strikes but it fails to do so fearing retaliation with nukes... so it save us from 2 bloody wars..

 

[Siavash]

It blocks it for 15 years but after that in 2 years Iran can upgrade to IR-8's and have a breakout time of 2 months instead if he wants.

I dont buy the Fatwa of Khameneie on Nukes! In Quran in Enfal 60 " ... و اعدولهم ما استطعتم من قوه و من رباط الخیل، ترهبون به" clearly encourages muslims to get the best and newest warfare as a deterrent tool. It doesn't need to be used against civilians it can be tactical nuke used in battlefield against concentration of soldiers and equipment. I think it is just a BS Fatwa to silence western critics. I don't think anybody in the west really bought it. I believe, it is a part of "Taghieh" or the act of deceive which Shia believes is possible against non believers to save muslim lives and when in danger it can be used to deceive enemy.

The political nature of Islam which obligates Muslims to be dominant inhabits such mentality and having Nukes is inevitable and a consequence of such hegemonic mentality in my opinion. So yes in my opinion under current ideology Iran will go towards Nukes eventually when it is strong enough to do so and if it become secular state (hopefully) in order to balance the forces in the region (Pakistan, Russia, possibly Arab states,..., Israel) would need a deterrent force either in the shape of threshold state or actual numbers of Nukes.

Overall, I see all paths going towards acquiring such weapon in 17 to 20 years regardless of what type of government rules over Iran. Shah clearly stated that and then denied it and he saw the same thing. Despite being a despotic ruler he understood the region very well and this was also planned at his time.

 

[macnurv]

Highly unlikely, the inspectors will have access to the sites virtually 24/7. Again Iranians are not stupid, they have already achieved most of their goals, nuclear threat was nothing but a bargaining chip which they had used to their advantage. But the situation could take a turn for the worst if KSA decides to get nuclear weapons, mind you today's KSA is far more assertive compared with any other time.

The deal is a Win-Win for both sides, but both must boast to local audience for point scoring, but in US things are a bit more complicated.

 

[Arya Desa]

It blocks it for 15 years but after that in 2 years Iran can upgrade to IR-8's and have a breakout time of 2 months instead if he wants.

Interesting, you view your country as a he instead of she.

 

[Siavash]

Interesting, you view your country as a he instead of she.

You are right that was a mistake which I didn't even notice I made! May be what you are saying is correct and I view it that way. Never had thought about it before! Good observation! If it is a correct observation I don't mind knowing why?

 

[Arya Desa]

Good observation! If it is a correct observation I don't mind knowing why?

Are you asking why I observed it? Because only a few people, and by extension, cultures view their country as he. Most call their country she as you are born and nourished in a country just like you're born and nourished by a mother.

 

[Siavash]

Are you asking why I observed it? Because only a few people, and by extension, cultures view their country as he. Most call their country she as you are born and nourished in a country just like you're born and nourished by a mother.

Interesting, thinking about it, I think I don't see the nourishing side of my country when thinking of those ruling over it. May be I see the nourishing side of my country being forcefully occupied by those who force their way on the country and those are the ones deciding if Iran will have Nukes or not. The nourishing side of my country has no need of the Nuke. It will remain as so and its nourishing nature will be intact even if it is occupied by successive forces during the centuries as it has been since 1400 years ago. Sounds too poetic may be.

I think now after I wrote above I get why cultures refer it as he. Culture doesn't project its force it dominates naturally ...

 

[Aramagedon]

Iran was not\will not going to build nuclear weapons but Iran has the capability to build and it is it's right to have this capability due to obvious reasons.
Meanwhile Iran is not that fool to give this capability to US and it's allies. Libya and Iraq are two examples that trusted US...

Today Iran has this capability and no one dare to attack Iran.

Interesting, thinking about it, I think I don't see the nourishing side of my country when thinking of those ruling over it. May be I see the nourishing side of my country being forcefully occupied by those who force their way on the country and those are the ones deciding if Iran will have Nukes or not. The nourishing side of my country has no need of the Nuke. It will remain as so and its nourishing nature will be intact even if it is occupied by successive forces during the centuries as it has been since 1400 years ago. Sounds too poetic may be.

I think now after I wrote above I get why cultures refer it as he. Culture doesn't project its force it dominates naturally ...

Mr. siavash mass destruction weapons or any sort of weapons that use against civilians are clearly haram in Islam. That's why Iran always has said don't want mass destruction weapons.

The Islamic fatwas prevent Iran to test or build nuclear weapons, but another reason is, if Iran build nuclear weapons UN sanctions will come for Iran and also west will find a stronger reason to attack Iran. Building nukes is not good for security and economy of Iran.

Iranians are wise and know what they are doing.

 

[rahi2357]

Iran doesn't want to build nukes but wants to be able to build one or two in anytime needed . And one does not simply say the uranium enrichment program is peaceful or not .Once you got enough centrifuge machines to enrich uranium you will be able to produce reactor grade uranium fuel (which is called a peaceful program ) or weapons grade uranium.

Now let's see the potential capability of Iran's facilities to make weapons grade uranium/plutonium before and after the nuclear deal.

1- Before the nuclear deal : Iran's Arak reactor could make enough weapon's grade plutonium for 3 weapons per year . Beside that Iran were able to enrich enough weapon's grade Uranium for 4 weapons each year .
(But Iran never tried to make one . We are talking about the ability of Iran's facilities to do so )

2- During the nuclear deal period : Arak reactor would be redesigned so that it produces much less plutonium . (which it takes 3 years to produce enough plutonium for one weapon ) . Beside that Iran will reduce it's installed enrichment centrifuges from 19,000 to 6,000 (13000 extra centrifuges will be stored for 8 years and not destroyed ). only 5,000 (out of 6000 ) of which will be spinning and is able to produce enough Uranium for one weapon per year. (That's why they are saying the breakout time for Iran is about one year )

3- After 8 - 10 - 15 years : Iran starts manufacturing advanced IR-6 and IR-8 centrifuges and is permitted to install unlimited numbers of centrifuges while is permitted to add more heavy water reactors and can reduce the breakout time to almost zero .

So what i think is that Iran wants it's peaceful nuclear program and beside that wants to be a nuclear threshold state but not a nuclear weapons state . At least for now !

 

[Shahryar Hedayati]

Off-topic, is it true that supreme leader Ayatullah has to be a najf born ?

No