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Philippines 48 Fighter Jets, 6 Submarines, Anti-ship cruise missiles: CNAS

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This article is some 6 months old, but I think it´s worth to post here since it unveals long term view of Philippines defence (2020). The program is very ambitious, I believe.




AFP- Philippines 48 Fighter Jets, 6 Submarines, anti-ship cruise missile – Washington CNAS
Saturday, May 05, 2012 | http://betterphils.blogspot.d


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WASHINGTON – The Philippines needs up to four squadrons (48) of upgraded Lockheed Martin F-16 fighter jets, more well-armed frigates and corvette-size, fast to surface combatant vessels and minesweepers and four to six mini submarines, possibly obtained from Russia, to build a credible defense force in the face of China's increasing belligerence in the South China Sea, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) said.


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This level of capability would far exceed current Philippine planning and finances and it would be in Washington's interest to make it easier for Manila to acquire excess US fighters, frigates and other weapons system and encourage other countries such as Japan and South Korea to help modernize the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), it said in an article "Defending the Philippines: Military modernization and the challenges ahead."

The CNAS article on Thursday written by Richard Fisher said the AFP's modernization program was estimated to cost about $1 billion over the course of President Aquino's six-year term – an amount that pales in comparison to China's 2012 official military budget of more than $100 billion.

A high-level Philippine delegation led by Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario and Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin was in Washington this week for discussions on each other's needs to ensure freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.

A Hamilton-class frigate, now the flagship of the Philippine Navy, was turned over by the US last year and a second one is forthcoming. A third frigate is being sought.

The article lauded Aquino's determination to build up his country's military forces and said he has spent more than $395 million on AFP modernization since coming into office, compared with $51 million annually in the previous 15 years.

It said he is seeking to purchase a small number of F-16s supported by six to 12 Surface Attack Aircraft (SAA)/Lead-In Fighter Training (LIFT) aircraft such as the subsonic Italian Aermacchi T-346 or the supersonic Korean Aerospace Industries (KAI) T/A-50, both of which could be modified to perform secondary combat missions.

A considerable investment in training, logistical support and basing will have to precede the aircrafts' service entry, estimated to be in 2016, the article said.

In 2011, the Philippine Navy (PN) restored a program to acquire two multi-role vessels in the form of 5,000-to-10,000-ton Landing Platform Deck (LPD) ships capable of supporting Marine amphibious operations supplying outposts in the Spratly Islands or conducting disaster relief operations.

The PN is also looking for a land-based anti-ship cruise missile like a version of the US Boeing AMG-84 Harpoon which has a range of 120 kms and could also be used by frigates and F-16s, said Fisher, a senior fellow with the International Assessment and Strategy Center, in his article.

"Finally, the PN would like to acquire a submarine by 2020, which would become its most ambitious and expensive program to date," the article said.


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Given the economic and political stakes in ensuring that all East Asian countries maintain unimpeded access to the sea lanes near the Philippines, both those nations and the United States now share a real interest in the success of the AFP modernization.

The timing is also fortuitous, the article said, because "the United States now has a pragmatic partner in President Aquino who has proved his intention to invest in national defense and is willing to rise above nationalist resentments from the bases era."

The left wing Communist party dominant in the Philippines booted the biggest Americans Airbase in the Pacific in 1992.

USA real-time satellite surveillance assistance over maritime territory to the Philippines

The three-week standoff between the Philippines and China at Panatag Shoal (Scarborough Shoal) in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) has led the US to agree to provide the Philippines, its old ally, with satellite surveillance assistance, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said on Friday.

US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta in Washington announced the American assistance after a Philippine delegation conferred with him.

"In a meeting with the Philippine delegation at the Pentagon, Secretary Panetta agreed to intensify Philippine-US cooperation on real-time information-sharing to enable the Philippines to know what is happening in its maritime territory on a 24/7 basis and enforce its laws within its territory," a DFA statement said.

Panetta also gave assurance the US "will do everything possible to work with the Philippines."

The DFA also added that the US, one of the most advanced countries in intelligence gathering via surveillance satellites, will be sending PHL "real-time" information about territorial intrusions to assist the country in addressing and preventing similar incidents in the West Philippine Sea.

Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario and Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin had met this week with Panetta and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Washington.

The US has declared that it will be aiding the Philippines once it is attacked to honor its 60-year-old defense treaty with Manila, but until then it shall not take sides.

It also pledged to increase its foreign military financing allocation for the Philippines to $30 million from just $15 million last year, said Assistant Secretary Andrew Shapiro, head of the State Department's Bureau for Political-Military Affairs.

"The State Department will explore additional creative funding streams for the Philippines," Shapiro added.

A second Hamilton-class cutter will also be transferred by the US to PHL for use in monitoring the West Philippine Sea and other maritime territories.

The standoff between the Philippines and China began on April 10 when Chinese fishermen were said to have intruded and poached at Panatag Shoal. The Philippine Navy tried to arrest them but two Chinese government ships intervened which started the standoff.

Both countries regard Panatag Shoal as their territory with the Philippines claiming it to be part of its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) which is within 200 nautical miles of the nearest Philippine land mass. China said the shoal, which it refers to as Huanyang Island, has been theirs since the Yuan dynasty in the 13th century.

However, the Philippines pronounces its claim based on the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) rule, which gives it the exclusive right to explore and develop Panatag Shoal, a part of its EEZ. UNCLOS was approved by both countries.

The shoal is a coral reef surrounding a lagoon located 124 nautical miles from the Philippines' Zambales province and 472 nautical miles from China's Hainan province.

Composed of more than 200 islands, rocks, reefs and coral outcrops, West Philippine Sea has always been a place of uneasy conflict where the Philippines, China, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam are all claiming part of it. The sea is home to immeasurable natural resources

AFP- Philippines 48 Fighter Jets, 6 Submarines, anti-ship cruise missile – Washington CNAS | Rebuilding for the Better Philippines
 
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PAF: F-16s & a possible Harpoon missiles
PN: Hamilton Class Cruiser, What Sub will the PN buy?
 
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PAF: F-16s & a possible Harpoon missiles
PN: Hamilton Class Cruiser, What Sub will the PN buy?

Well it can't be a Virginia class boat that is similar in appearance on the pic. Maybe from Japan they can buy some. Australia is also interested in them.
 
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Perhaps India should help them with Brahmos missile for anti-shipping role, on a soft loan.
 
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Well it can't be a Virginia class boat that is similar in appearance on the pic. Maybe from Japan they can buy some. Australia is also interested in them.

pfffft.... Everybody know it won't be any Americano Subs. Euro or Ozzie probably.
 
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Well this just a rumor but i think its an french or Japanese for the subs for others for planes its both or either south korean or Italian ( we been buying a lot for Italy from Army weapons weapons and Naval ship contracts are already sign and we have two anti sub frigates bought from Italy and a possible anti sub corvettes no news yet on those corvettes) And other Gregorio del Pilar class (former Hamilton-class cutters) the BRP Ramon Alcaraz (that will be equip with new equipments and weapons contracts are now sign and will be carried out by next year)but for the cruise missiles i think its an antiship missile sir maybe an American Harpoon missile but i think if we are getting one i would be an Indian or Israeli model Anyhow we are waiting for official announcement at the AFP(Armed forces of the Philippines) Anniversary Dec 22 so we can have an idea.
 
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I think it is Philippines´s right to defence its assets. The Phlippines economy is improving a lot and giving room for increased spending on arms.
 
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Great to hear that our neighbor is finally making good decision to arm themselves with better equipment. But this crossed my mind, U.S donated more than 30 F16s with upgrade packages to Indonesia and not to her closest ally in S.E.A, and from what I heard, Phil have been making 2 attempts to get the same offer that Indonesia got. So far, neither of those attempts succeeded, free 48 jets seems too high to be expected. Let's say Phil Armed force finally decided to buy new jets, 4 squads of brand new pure fighter jets (not LIFT) could cost Phil USD 3 - 4 billions more or less, ground support facilities and training (because PAF pilots have no experiences with 4th gen jets) would make the price even higher. Arming an ex-coast guard boat plus 2 maestrale frigates and buying new corvettes could cost Phil more than USD 1 Billion, 2 if Phil really want to add P100 yakhont, Brahmos, or any heavy AShM. Acquiring brand new six submarines could cost Phil more than USD 2 billions (assuming that Indo can get 3 subs with USD 1.1 bil). The rough estimation of costs for this ambitious plan is around USD 7 - 9 billions, and according to the news, Mr. Acquino will provide USD 1 billion for six years term. Counting down from 2020 to 2013, Phil only have 7 years, Phil can't accomplish that plan with lesser money allocation than it's needed. Judging from that, wouldn't it seems to be unrealistic? CMIIW
 
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Money is always a issue. Thanks for your quick estimation.

Great to hear that our neighbor is finally making good decision to arm themselves with better equipment. But this crossed my mind, U.S donated more than 30 F16s with upgrade packages to Indonesia and not to her closest ally in S.E.A, and from what I heard, Phil have been making 2 attempts to get the same offer that Indonesia got. So far, neither of those attempts succeeded, free 48 jets seems too high to be expected. Let's say Phil Armed force finally decided to buy new jets, 4 squads of brand new pure fighter jets (not LIFT) could cost Phil USD 3 - 4 billions more or less, ground support facilities and training (because PAF pilots have no experiences with 4th gen jets) would make the price even higher. Arming an ex-coast guard boat plus 2 maestrale frigates and buying new corvettes could cost Phil more than USD 1 Billion, 2 if Phil really want to add P100 yakhont, Brahmos, or any heavy AShM. Acquiring brand new six submarines could cost Phil more than USD 2 billions (assuming that Indo can get 3 subs with USD 1.1 bil). The rough estimation of costs for this ambitious plan is around USD 7 - 9 billions, and according to the news, Mr. Acquino will provide USD 1 billion for six years term. Counting down from 2020 to 2013, Phil only have 7 years, Phil can't accomplish that plan with lesser money allocation than it's needed. Judging from that, wouldn't it seems to be unrealistic? CMIIW
 
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Great to hear that our neighbor is finally making good decision to arm themselves with better equipment. But this crossed my mind, U.S donated more than 30 F16s with upgrade packages to Indonesia and not to her closest ally in S.E.A, and from what I heard, Phil have been making 2 attempts to get the same offer that Indonesia got. So far, neither of those attempts succeeded, free 48 jets seems too high to be expected. Let's say Phil Armed force finally decided to buy new jets, 4 squads of brand new pure fighter jets (not LIFT) could cost Phil USD 3 - 4 billions more or less, ground support facilities and training (because PAF pilots have no experiences with 4th gen jets) would make the price even higher. Arming an ex-coast guard boat plus 2 maestrale frigates and buying new corvettes could cost Phil more than USD 1 Billion, 2 if Phil really want to add P100 yakhont, Brahmos, or any heavy AShM. Acquiring brand new six submarines could cost Phil more than USD 2 billions (assuming that Indo can get 3 subs with USD 1.1 bil). The rough estimation of costs for this ambitious plan is around USD 7 - 9 billions, and according to the news, Mr. Acquino will provide USD 1 billion for six years term. Counting down from 2020 to 2013, Phil only have 7 years, Phil can't accomplish that plan with lesser money allocation than it's needed. Judging from that, wouldn't it seems to be unrealistic? CMIIW

You are basing on the fact that the Filipino are after new jet. F-16, but there are talks with US, Netherland, and even singapre to acquire their second hand jet with equipment package and they will be half of what a new jet cost. With Philippine already servicing F-5 in the past, the upgrade from F-5 and F-16 is not as much from starting from scratch. There are also deals drawing from Singapore to get their F-16 or even F-15 second hand when the Singaporean got their F-35, also another deal have been discussed a few months back to have 50 Australian F-18A in practically free offer after the Aussie retire those airframe, i don't know how's the deal fared. Not to mention Philippine could look at USAF ex-F16 for a cheap start.

There are also way to get new arms on cheap too. You can have a loan, on credit, or even lease/buy option or a mix of buy some, lease some. Money is not really an issue here actually.
 
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India got the free aircraft carrier from Russia and how much have they paid for this freebie so far? It is not cold war any more and no country will help other countries for free.

You are basing on the fact that the Filipino are after new jet. F-16, but there are talks with US, Netherland, and even singapre to acquire their second hand jet with equipment package and they will be half of what a new jet cost. With Philippine already servicing F-5 in the past, the upgrade from F-5 and F-16 is not as much from starting from scratch. There are also deals drawing from Singapore to get their F-16 or even F-15 second hand when the Singaporean got their F-35, also another deal have been discussed a few months back to have 50 Australian F-18A in practically free offer after the Aussie retire those airframe, i don't know how's the deal fared. Not to mention Philippine could look at USAF ex-F16 for a cheap start.

There are also way to get new arms on cheap too. You can have a loan, on credit, or even lease/buy option or a mix of buy some, lease some. Money is not really an issue here actually.
 
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I don't know and don't care if the said program could be realized by 2020。Good luck to the Philippines。

I do know however that by 2020,China's economic output will be north of 25 trillion US dollars,giving the country almost unlimited resources to build anything and everything it pleases。And the economy then will still be expanding 8% plus a year。

It is time that we Asians have some teeth。:azn:
 
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India got the free aircraft carrier from Russia and how much have they paid for this freebie so far? It is not cold war any more and no country will help other countries for free.

lol...........

Do you know what those country do to their old frame when they are retiring them?? They scrap them. If you want you can buy a second hand F-16 from next to nothing, place them back to General Electric (now boeing) and upgrade them for faction of the price.

Not every case of second hand equipment are crap like the Russian one.

And fighter aircraft are always less complicate than the Aircraft Carrier. There are numerous second hand fighter force in South America, or even IRan flew US Aircraft from the 1970 and still using them with ease. How hard is it to refub those equipment is different between country to country.

Switzerland using EX-USN converted F-18, Thailand using ex-Germany Alpha Jet. Romania using ex-USAF F-16s, Jordanian using ex-netherland F-16. I cna name more if you want.

As i said, there are market for second hand aircraft. How they deal with it is their problem, you can add more upgrade or fly them away as is (Given they are still air worthy), money ois not a problem for any arms sale.

If all else fail, you can always go for lease-buy option
 
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