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Pakistan's Tactical Nukes : Hypes, Flaws and illusions - A Tactical blunder in the making.
Development of Nuclear missile power motivated by a state to improve its national security and expand its influence in a global scale.
Massive offensive nuclear capabilities are coming of age with sea-trials for its first ballistic missile submarine. The INS Arihantis expected to be introduced into service by 2016. New Delhi plans to field between four to six similar vessels by the end of 2025 and much more powerful SSBN in the near future to boost its second strike capability. These are are additional capabilities Indians will have along with their Aire and missile nuclear delivery systems. Pakistan is also likely to develop sea-based nuclear capabilities. Both are seeking to develop their own version of the nuclear triad, which incorporates air, land and sea-based systems. Some scholars have argued that second-strike capability will have a positive influence on strategic stability in the region while others have raised concerns about the dangers of a nuclear arms race. As Pakistan don't follow the same policy of India or China. Where the later follows 'No first Use ' policy
Report which rang alarm bells in high level corridors of power.
Report titled "Pakistan could have the world’s third largest stockpile of nuclear weapons after the US and Russia within a decade"
The report said if it(Pakistan) continues to build up to 20 nuclear warheads annually. *Pakistan became a nuclear power in 1998 when it carried out a series of six nuclear tests just three weeks after India carried out a second series of its own tests. Neither country has signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.
The production, maintenance and modernization of nuclear forces diverts vast public resources away from health. care, education, climate change mitigation, disaster relief, development assistance and other vital services. So will the Nukes save Pakistan from conventional retaliation from India?
According to Toby Dalton of the Carnegie Endowment for international peace and Michael Krepon of the Stimson Center, “the growth path of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, enabled by existing infrastructure, goes well beyond the assurances of credible minimal deterrence provided by Pakistani officials and analysts after testing nuclear devices.
Few months ago Pakistan’s foreign secretary notes that Islamabad is ready to use low-yield nukes against India’s “Cold Start” doctrine.
Pakistani official confirmed what had long been suspected by the arms control community: Pakistan will use low-yield nuclear weapons in responding to hypothetical Indian incursions into its territory. According to Pakistani Foreign Secretary Aizaz Chaudhary, Pakistan is formalizing it’s plans to use these low-yield nuclear bombs to forestall the advance of Indian troops under New Delhi’s “Cold Start” doctrine.
What is Cold Start : Cold Start emphasizes speedy and lithe offensive operations in case of any terror attacks. Already Indian armed forces posses hands down superiority over Pakistan. India commands huge fleet of Navy, Airforce to come into the aid of its world's 2nd largest Army in the world.
Chaudhary’s statement marks the first time Pakistani officials have acknowledged their intent to use low-yield, or so-called “tactical,” nuclear weapons in a potential future conflict with India.
Deployment of short-range, low-yield nuclear weapons as problematic and risky. Jeffrey D. McCausland, writing for the Stimson Center, notes that “the belief held by some Pakistani military leaders that the development, production, and induction of tactical nuclear weapons would cancel Indian conventional advantages while facilitate ‘sub-conventional’ warfare is both dangerous and problematic.”
Still India does not currently operate or plan to develop tactical nuclear weapons. Why? India on other hand facing huge threat from China. Not only that two front war is something that keep ringing alarm bells in New Delhi’s highest level of administration.
On the contrary to Pakistan, India believes in full and powerful retaliation using large strikes at multiple cities at a same time in such a way the adversaries are completely destroyed . So if Pakistan use its nukes in its own territory destroying it's own country it would put itself in a position where massive retaliation from India.
But let's see at what extend Pakistan will be able to exercise it's ability to launch missile strike against Indian force .
Let's say Pakistan managed to successfully launch another 26/11 mumbai terror attack. For sure given the priority for the new government at the center led by Hindu Nationalist leadership appropriate retaliation could be initiated.
1) An Air strikes and small military operations on the LoC won’t give Pakistan enough reason to escalate a conflict, mired as it is in a sapping internal war. Although there would likely be some retaliation against the Indian strikes, punishment for terrorism would have been delivered.
2) India might have to absorb some blows in return but it would have achieved it's objectives of eliminating terror camps deep inside Azad Kashmir.
3) Pressure will be on Pakistan from global community to stop harbouring terrorism against India. Image of Pakistan will have serious effects in it's actions.
4) Even if India managed to retake parts or whole of Kashmir it is much below the level for nuclear confrontation between countries with massive nuclear arsenals.
No point in using nuclear weapons here at all. The story, though, may not end there. Terrorists will, almost certainly, retaliate against the destruction of their infrastructure by staging more attacks. India’s government will have no option but to hit back. Each successive phase of Indian retaliation will, inexorably, be that much more intense, as New Delhi seeks to compel Pakistan’s military establishment to act against its terrorist proxies.
By end of the day India would have arm twisted Pakistan to stop it's proxies against India along with overwhelming support from majority of global community. India's global influence web has just got Modi-fied where as Pakistan struggling to keep its interest afloat in its own neighborhood. Today's foreign policies of Pakistan is like hungry man with a bread and butter which already expired.
Pakistan's military establishment thought /thinking that mass producing large number of nuclear weapons capabilities than India could serve as a shield against Indian retaliation for its Terror attacks in India.
Think about it : “If the military art could be reduced to arithmetic,” Soviet nuclear theoretician General Andrian Danilevich observed, “we would not need any wars. You could simply look at the correlation of forces, make some calculations, and tell your opponent, ‘we outnumber you 2:1, victory is ours, please surrender’.”
What Pakistan has done with its threatening strategy is to give India a stage to perform it's right to expand its nuclear arsenals against Nukes taunting Pakistan and insecure hence aggressive neighbor China . World will be more worried about Pakistan nuclear capability than of India for many reasons.
This tactical nuclear weapon's capabilities are very restrained and very risky. Once threshold to use nukes are breached nothing else could stop it's chain retaliations. Pakistani establishment must revisit it's policies which are poised to become a complete failure in the future.
Just my views. And views of others too. You like it or not
Development of Nuclear missile power motivated by a state to improve its national security and expand its influence in a global scale.
Massive offensive nuclear capabilities are coming of age with sea-trials for its first ballistic missile submarine. The INS Arihantis expected to be introduced into service by 2016. New Delhi plans to field between four to six similar vessels by the end of 2025 and much more powerful SSBN in the near future to boost its second strike capability. These are are additional capabilities Indians will have along with their Aire and missile nuclear delivery systems. Pakistan is also likely to develop sea-based nuclear capabilities. Both are seeking to develop their own version of the nuclear triad, which incorporates air, land and sea-based systems. Some scholars have argued that second-strike capability will have a positive influence on strategic stability in the region while others have raised concerns about the dangers of a nuclear arms race. As Pakistan don't follow the same policy of India or China. Where the later follows 'No first Use ' policy
Report which rang alarm bells in high level corridors of power.
Report titled "Pakistan could have the world’s third largest stockpile of nuclear weapons after the US and Russia within a decade"
The report said if it(Pakistan) continues to build up to 20 nuclear warheads annually. *Pakistan became a nuclear power in 1998 when it carried out a series of six nuclear tests just three weeks after India carried out a second series of its own tests. Neither country has signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.
The production, maintenance and modernization of nuclear forces diverts vast public resources away from health. care, education, climate change mitigation, disaster relief, development assistance and other vital services. So will the Nukes save Pakistan from conventional retaliation from India?
According to Toby Dalton of the Carnegie Endowment for international peace and Michael Krepon of the Stimson Center, “the growth path of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, enabled by existing infrastructure, goes well beyond the assurances of credible minimal deterrence provided by Pakistani officials and analysts after testing nuclear devices.
Few months ago Pakistan’s foreign secretary notes that Islamabad is ready to use low-yield nukes against India’s “Cold Start” doctrine.
Pakistani official confirmed what had long been suspected by the arms control community: Pakistan will use low-yield nuclear weapons in responding to hypothetical Indian incursions into its territory. According to Pakistani Foreign Secretary Aizaz Chaudhary, Pakistan is formalizing it’s plans to use these low-yield nuclear bombs to forestall the advance of Indian troops under New Delhi’s “Cold Start” doctrine.
What is Cold Start : Cold Start emphasizes speedy and lithe offensive operations in case of any terror attacks. Already Indian armed forces posses hands down superiority over Pakistan. India commands huge fleet of Navy, Airforce to come into the aid of its world's 2nd largest Army in the world.
Chaudhary’s statement marks the first time Pakistani officials have acknowledged their intent to use low-yield, or so-called “tactical,” nuclear weapons in a potential future conflict with India.
Deployment of short-range, low-yield nuclear weapons as problematic and risky. Jeffrey D. McCausland, writing for the Stimson Center, notes that “the belief held by some Pakistani military leaders that the development, production, and induction of tactical nuclear weapons would cancel Indian conventional advantages while facilitate ‘sub-conventional’ warfare is both dangerous and problematic.”
Still India does not currently operate or plan to develop tactical nuclear weapons. Why? India on other hand facing huge threat from China. Not only that two front war is something that keep ringing alarm bells in New Delhi’s highest level of administration.
On the contrary to Pakistan, India believes in full and powerful retaliation using large strikes at multiple cities at a same time in such a way the adversaries are completely destroyed . So if Pakistan use its nukes in its own territory destroying it's own country it would put itself in a position where massive retaliation from India.
But let's see at what extend Pakistan will be able to exercise it's ability to launch missile strike against Indian force .
Let's say Pakistan managed to successfully launch another 26/11 mumbai terror attack. For sure given the priority for the new government at the center led by Hindu Nationalist leadership appropriate retaliation could be initiated.
1) An Air strikes and small military operations on the LoC won’t give Pakistan enough reason to escalate a conflict, mired as it is in a sapping internal war. Although there would likely be some retaliation against the Indian strikes, punishment for terrorism would have been delivered.
2) India might have to absorb some blows in return but it would have achieved it's objectives of eliminating terror camps deep inside Azad Kashmir.
3) Pressure will be on Pakistan from global community to stop harbouring terrorism against India. Image of Pakistan will have serious effects in it's actions.
4) Even if India managed to retake parts or whole of Kashmir it is much below the level for nuclear confrontation between countries with massive nuclear arsenals.
No point in using nuclear weapons here at all. The story, though, may not end there. Terrorists will, almost certainly, retaliate against the destruction of their infrastructure by staging more attacks. India’s government will have no option but to hit back. Each successive phase of Indian retaliation will, inexorably, be that much more intense, as New Delhi seeks to compel Pakistan’s military establishment to act against its terrorist proxies.
By end of the day India would have arm twisted Pakistan to stop it's proxies against India along with overwhelming support from majority of global community. India's global influence web has just got Modi-fied where as Pakistan struggling to keep its interest afloat in its own neighborhood. Today's foreign policies of Pakistan is like hungry man with a bread and butter which already expired.
Pakistan's military establishment thought /thinking that mass producing large number of nuclear weapons capabilities than India could serve as a shield against Indian retaliation for its Terror attacks in India.
Think about it : “If the military art could be reduced to arithmetic,” Soviet nuclear theoretician General Andrian Danilevich observed, “we would not need any wars. You could simply look at the correlation of forces, make some calculations, and tell your opponent, ‘we outnumber you 2:1, victory is ours, please surrender’.”
What Pakistan has done with its threatening strategy is to give India a stage to perform it's right to expand its nuclear arsenals against Nukes taunting Pakistan and insecure hence aggressive neighbor China . World will be more worried about Pakistan nuclear capability than of India for many reasons.
This tactical nuclear weapon's capabilities are very restrained and very risky. Once threshold to use nukes are breached nothing else could stop it's chain retaliations. Pakistani establishment must revisit it's policies which are poised to become a complete failure in the future.
Just my views. And views of others too. You like it or not
