illusion8
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As the Arab world descends into sectarian turmoil, with rival Sunni and Shi’i militias fighting on multiple fronts, a new battlefield is opening up in Pakistan. Although much of the Western attention has focused on clashes between the Pakistani military and Sunni militant groups in the remote tribal regions, these armed actors are expanding their terrorism against civilians across urban Pakistan. A key component of this campaign is a systematic attempt to harden identity-based divisions and provoke wider conflict between Sunnis and Shi’a. Not only does Islamabad have no effective response to this calculated offensive, which has cratered public confidence in the state, it is also getting sucked into the vicious sectarian politics of the Middle East, which will only yield further ideological violence on its soil.
According to the Pew Research Center, in both 2011 and 2012, Pakistan had the highest rate of social hostilities involving religion in the world. Of the 4,725 deaths caused by terrorism and violence in Pakistan in 2013, 687 people were killed in sectarian attacks, a rise of twenty-two percent from 2012. While few minorities are safe in Pakistan today, the anti-Shi’i killings have the greatest destabilizing potential, given that up to 26 million Shi’a live in the country, the world’s second highest population after Iran.
Internal factors alone, however, do not explain the rising intensity of violence inside Pakistan, which is also affected by the wider geopolitics of the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, long engaged in an intense rivalry with Iran across the Muslim world, seeks to contain Tehran’s influence in Pakistan as well. Saudi fears have escalated in recent years since the rise of Shi’i rule in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein and the growing influence of Iran in the region. Donors in Riyadh and the other Persian Gulf monarchies have funded Sunni radical groups, including anti-Shi’i militant factions, inside Pakistan. Shi’i militant groups also have a presence in Pakistan, but their reach is comparatively limited and they generally retaliate against the leaders of Sunni radical groups, rather than targeting Sunni communities indiscriminately, as it is not in their interest to spark a wider war.
It is not hard to see the results of this investment. In 2011, thousands of retired Pakistani army personnel were sent over to serve in Bahrain’s special forces, National Guard, and riot police, helping to put down aShi’i uprising against the Sunni monarchy whose closest ally is Saudi Arabia. Last November, there were reports that Saudi Arabia is deploying a new rebel army to take on Bashar al-Assad’s regime, in which Pakistani military instructors will play a crucial role in training insurgent brigades.
Pakistan’s growing ensnarement with Arab civil wars will have dire consequences for its own stability. Pakistan’s relations with Iran have steadily worsened in recent years.
Tehran has repeatedly alleged that Pakistan-based Sunni militant groups carry out attacks in its eastern province, bordering Pakistan. In 2012, Pakistan arrested three Iranian border guards after accusing them of crossing into the country and shooting a Pakistani national. Late last year, Iran rescinded a planned $500 million loan that would have funded the construction of a pipeline enabling the importation of Iranian gas, an important project for Pakistan’s energy-starved economy.
Currently, Tehran is accusing “state-sponsored extremist groups” of kidnapping Iranian border guards, on one occasion even threatening to send troops to recover them.
If Iran perceives Pakistan to be another enemy in its ideological and political struggle with Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf monarchies, then there may be no end in sight to Pakistan’s sectarian turn.
Pakistan’s Sectarian Turn, by: Ahmed Humayun | Eutopia Institute
According to the Pew Research Center, in both 2011 and 2012, Pakistan had the highest rate of social hostilities involving religion in the world. Of the 4,725 deaths caused by terrorism and violence in Pakistan in 2013, 687 people were killed in sectarian attacks, a rise of twenty-two percent from 2012. While few minorities are safe in Pakistan today, the anti-Shi’i killings have the greatest destabilizing potential, given that up to 26 million Shi’a live in the country, the world’s second highest population after Iran.
Internal factors alone, however, do not explain the rising intensity of violence inside Pakistan, which is also affected by the wider geopolitics of the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, long engaged in an intense rivalry with Iran across the Muslim world, seeks to contain Tehran’s influence in Pakistan as well. Saudi fears have escalated in recent years since the rise of Shi’i rule in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein and the growing influence of Iran in the region. Donors in Riyadh and the other Persian Gulf monarchies have funded Sunni radical groups, including anti-Shi’i militant factions, inside Pakistan. Shi’i militant groups also have a presence in Pakistan, but their reach is comparatively limited and they generally retaliate against the leaders of Sunni radical groups, rather than targeting Sunni communities indiscriminately, as it is not in their interest to spark a wider war.
It is not hard to see the results of this investment. In 2011, thousands of retired Pakistani army personnel were sent over to serve in Bahrain’s special forces, National Guard, and riot police, helping to put down aShi’i uprising against the Sunni monarchy whose closest ally is Saudi Arabia. Last November, there were reports that Saudi Arabia is deploying a new rebel army to take on Bashar al-Assad’s regime, in which Pakistani military instructors will play a crucial role in training insurgent brigades.
Pakistan’s growing ensnarement with Arab civil wars will have dire consequences for its own stability. Pakistan’s relations with Iran have steadily worsened in recent years.
Tehran has repeatedly alleged that Pakistan-based Sunni militant groups carry out attacks in its eastern province, bordering Pakistan. In 2012, Pakistan arrested three Iranian border guards after accusing them of crossing into the country and shooting a Pakistani national. Late last year, Iran rescinded a planned $500 million loan that would have funded the construction of a pipeline enabling the importation of Iranian gas, an important project for Pakistan’s energy-starved economy.
Currently, Tehran is accusing “state-sponsored extremist groups” of kidnapping Iranian border guards, on one occasion even threatening to send troops to recover them.
If Iran perceives Pakistan to be another enemy in its ideological and political struggle with Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf monarchies, then there may be no end in sight to Pakistan’s sectarian turn.
Pakistan’s Sectarian Turn, by: Ahmed Humayun | Eutopia Institute
