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Pakistan to exceed $31 billion remittances target

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Pakistan to exceed $31 billion remittances target
Muzaffar Rizvi /Dubai
muzaffarrizvi@khaleejtimes.com Filed on October 9, 2021

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Foreign exchange inflows may hit $70 billion in 2021-22 on rising exports and surging RDA

Pakistan is on track to achieve a record $32 billion in remittance inflows in the current fiscal 2021-22 as its over nine million overseas workers remitted a record $8.04 billion during the first quarter ended on September 30.
The latest data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the central bank, showed that non-resident Pakistanis sent 12.5 per cent more money back home during the July-September quarter compared to the same period last year. It is the highest ever quarterly remittance received by the country in its 75 years of history.
"If the first-quarter trend persists, Pakistan remittances could hit the figure of $32 billion during the current financial year. This contributes significantly to countering external pressure on balance of payment," according to the Trust Securities and Brokerage Limited.

UAE, Saudi Arabia lead
Overseas Pakistanis residing in the UAE and Saudi Arabia contributed a major share in total remittances as they sent $1.55 billion and $2.03 billion, respectively. The remittance outflows from the UAE to Pakistan climbed nine per cent year-on-year basis, while Saudi Arabia registered a slight decline of three per cent during the quarter.
Remittances from the US and UK soared 32 per cent ($833 million) and 13 per cent ($1.12 billion), respectively. First-quarter inflows from the European Union surged 48 per cent to $889 million from $601 million in the same quarter last year.
"Proactive policy measures by the government and SBP to incentivise the use of formal channels, curtailed crossborder travel in the face of Covid19, altruistic transfers to Pakistan amid the pandemic, and orderly foreign exchange market conditions have positively contributed towards the sustained improvement in remittance inflows since last year," the SBP said.

Record-breaking rally
Pakistan economy has received much-needed support and relief through a consistent upward remittances trend since June 2020.
Remittances to Pakistan remained above $2 billion since June 2020. The central bank said this is also the seventh consecutive month that inflows were around $2.7 billion on average.
Pakistan received record $29.4 billion remittances during the financial year 2020-21 compared to $23 billion it received during the financial year 2019-20.
The government expects $31 billion in remittances for the present fiscal year of 2021-22.
Samiullah Tariq, head of research at Pakistan Kuwait Investment, said the country is likely to exceed the $31 billion remittances target this year due to strong first-quarter data.
"Yes, I believe Pakistan should achieve $31 billion remittances target in 2021-22," Tariq told Khaleej Times on Saturday.
He attributed the growth in remittances to the government and the central bank's measures and growing awareness about terrorism financing and anti-money laundering. The majority of overseas workers now prefer to send money through official channels.
"Digital means to remit money from abroad have also played a major role in boosting remittances," Tariq said.
Records forex inflows
Another analyst said the country is expected to receive record $70 billion foreign exchange inflows this year that will ease pressure on balance of payment and the rupee, which depreciated more than 8.5 per cent since June 2021.
Elaborating, he said remittance inflows will lead with $32 billion and followed by export of goods ($30 billion), services export ($6 billion) and Roshan Digital Account ($2 billion).
On Friday, the central bank said cumulative inflow under the Roshan Digital Account (RDA) reached $2.411 billion since its inception in September 2020.
"Out of the $2.411 billion deposited in RDAs, about $1,660 million, or over 68 per cent, have been invested in Naya Pakistan Certificates," the SBP said.
The central bank data shows that 248,723 accounts have been opened from 175 countries during the 13-month period.

"The number of accounts opened increased by 12.6 per cent on monthly basis in September while the value of inflows surged 21 per cent to $297 million," according to the SBP.
 
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So....Pakistan has more overseas expatriates than the entire population of Sweden 😅
 
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more then exports of country what a shame . 10 million oversease earn more then 210 million pakistanis . our exports must be 150 billions now .

If IK is given 10 more years I easily see our exports in the 150-200 bn Range. Unfortunately I think our remittance growth will significantly plateau in the 45-50 bn Range once income increase 2-3x the current rate.
 
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more then exports of country what a shame . 10 million oversease earn more then 210 million pakistanis . our exports must be 150 billions now .
It was at 20-25 billion USD in 2018. Today it is well poised to breach 32 billion USD (merchandise only, if you add services, it would be around 38 billion USD). A journey of 1000 miles begins with the first step. We have started taking the initial steps. Hopefully a sustained focus in growing the ICT exports that could give quantum leaps, promoting a freelancing culture that would spike remittances further (freelancing payments come to shore in the form of remittances), and support to industries in the shape of policy consistency, access to cheap credit & power tariffs, we could grow our exports considerably within 5 years. I see exports (goods + services) rising to 40 billion USD by the term end of this government. It doesn't appear they would be back in power due to runaway inflation. I just hope whoever comes, doesn't screw the momentum they have created and instead puts in even more effort, as there is no salvation for us other than export-led growth. The lessons from our neighborhood are very telling. Exports-led growth lifts communities, raises living standards (hence people have more to spend on health and education; both of which spur further long-term prosperity and produce better quality human resources). And most importantly, foreign investment only begins when domestic investment boosted by high export earnings picks up. Investors want to invest in BD today because of their sharply rising exports. They see BD as a valuable manufacturing destination. The current announcement of APTMA regarding the investment of 5 billion USD in increasing productive capacity is a great sign. Once domestic investment picks up, foreign investment follows suit. How was this made possible? Due to SBP's TERF facility that provided access to cheap credit. Cheap credit allowed manufacturers to expand capacity, create higher exportable surpluses, increase cash flows in the long term and invest from their own working capital as well as SBP offered cheap credit. Government should seriously consider the demand of APTMA (and maybe other high potential export industries) for a flat power tariff for 5 straight years (it has been extended for one year right now). This would allow the domestic manufacturer to commit to investing in capacity enhancement and generate higher exportable surpluses. Secondly, this would also address the power capacity trap we find ourselves in today. With increasing industrial activity, power would be absorbed much quicker. Right now, we are making idle capacity payments as well courtesy take or pay agreements signed by PML N in desperation to address the power crisis within an election cycle.
If IK is given 10 more years I easily see our exports in the 150-200 bn Range. Unfortunately I think our remittance growth will significantly plateau in the 45-50 bn Range once income increase 2-3x the current rate.
Remittances will definitely plateau with time even if we keep exporting manpower. Remittances are no solution. The bulk comes from GCC which is susceptible itself to boom and bust cycles linked to crude prices. Export growth is the only option. Sustained and brisk export growth would put Pakistan on the map of foreign investors as well. Once that happens, you could begin attracting FDI as well which is the missing link in our inflows right now.
 
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Why is it something to be proud of, why are we setting goals for remittances.
I have been saying for last 10 years, amount of remittances is inversely proportional to financial strength of Pakistani public. Ex-pats send more money because their loved ones are going thru hardships....then why are these morons advertising it like it is their achievement.

why are our achievements laughable.
 
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Why is it something to be proud of, why are we setting goals for remittances.
I have been saying for last 10 years, amount of remittances is inversely proportional to financial strength of Pakistani public. Ex-pats send more money because their loved ones are going thru hardships....then why are these morons advertising it like it is their achievement.

why are our achievements laughable.
Not really it also shows investor confidence in real estate and other equity purchase

Look at india and china remittences

Though focus should be services & goods exports
 
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No country can survive or grow on remittance..... It's an add-on to your economy, not a lifeline. Govt and the private sector did NOTHING to grow our economy from the past 30-40 years to be fair. I have never seen such a phatu businessman community anywhere in the world like we have who is more concerned about the ROI.

We think and talk too much and do nothing from top to bottom. We are nowhere in the market. Except exporting a few masalay and textile (not even contributing 1% of the global economy - a country of 210M). A person whose income is 0.2-0.4M paying 30-40K tax max aur samajta hey mainay bohta kamaal kardiya hey its a shame. The biggest hoax -- I have heard since my childhood "ham Pakistani sab say ziada charity detay hain". What a BS. mulk economies charity say nahe chaltieen. People in the western countries paying 25 - 45% of the tax (in general depends on the slabs) and then govt diverted/spends 15 - 25% of the taxpayer money on the poor and on low wages. Same with the investors. That's how you manage your poor while running the economy without depending on international lenders.

I haven't seen any single reform in any sector from the past 3 years. While trying to halt our imports, govt significantly damaged large-scale manufacturing without doing any constructive debate with the business community. Half of exported maal is actually made with the help of "imported raw material". It's a long debate but dependent on the ex-pats remittance or glorifying this at the govt level is a shame.
 
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If IK is given 10 more years I easily see our exports in the 150-200 bn Range. Unfortunately I think our remittance growth will significantly plateau in the 45-50 bn Range once income increase 2-3x the current rate.
Bhai niklo idher sai. Give that asshole another 10 years and we will be eating dust. Incompetence ki intaha nahi chori har idaray farigh kardiya hai
 
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Why is it something to be proud of, why are we setting goals for remittances.
I have been saying for last 10 years, amount of remittances is inversely proportional to financial strength of Pakistani public. Ex-pats send more money because their loved ones are going thru hardships....then why are these morons advertising it like it is their achievement.

why are our achievements laughable.

Government has set a target to milk you. they are holding your families hostage to inflation.

on the other hand if you have millions stashed away in black, no better time than now to take the risk and whiten it.
 
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Most of the remittances come from Saudi Arabia and UAE but those living in western countries take credit. One reason for increase in remittances can be devaluation of rupee they can buy more things in Pakistan with less dollars. Price of dollar is increasing faster than most other things

People in the west are systematically engineered to be careful with money. I think they are trying to get the 200 billion dollars they promised.

Government has found a goldmine. Nobody can stop this inflow but someone should stop the outflow which is far greater.

If you don't work the slaves, they will rebel outta sheer boredom.
 
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There has to be a system in place to tax land that is held. In the US real estate is taxed at 1-2% a year in most states.

In Pakistan speculators are rewarded handsomely to holding on to plots while business owners are punished via taxes on setting up factories. This must change.
 
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Pakistan is on track to achieve a record $32 billion in remittance inflows in the current fiscal 2021-22 as its over nine million overseas workers remitted a record $8.04 billion during the first quarter ended on September 30.

And then we wonder where the demand for imported luxury items comes from.
 
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And then we wonder where the demand for imported luxury items comes from.
To be honest, even the demand in itself isn't the issue.

12 years back, I studied how the Philippines took their economic growth to another gear by channeling remittances into the local industry by 'encouraging' (read: regulating) foreign brands to source locally. They also incentivized the recipients of remittances to invest locally. Interestingly, the Filipinos were pretty advanced in their thinking because a lot of these recipients would invest in stocks or equity in big Filipino companies, thus giving the latter capital to grow. So, the big Filipino manufacturers, BPOs, etc, could owe it to that policy.

Anyways, the cumulative effect of those targeted policies basically turned the Philippines into a Newly Industrialized Country akin to Turkey.

We could do something similar by gatekeeping the market. E.g., if you're an auto-maker, then the only way you're going to sell cars in Pakistan is if you source 70%+ of the car's value from Pakistan. Now in this scenario, those remittances are actually powering the local economy. Potentially, Pakistan-based manufacturers could become capable exporters, especially in Central Asia. You apply this across appliances, consumer electronics, household chemicals, foodstuffs, etc, and we could do a lot.

Ultimately, it takes sincere leadership and a patient population. Unfortunately, we lack both. We do have a listless population that can stop caring, but that's not the same as patience.
 
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