Pakistan to be 20th most powerful economy by 2030: PwC

[Hyde]

I can assure you, even in 2050 US will remain the leading and largest economy worldwide.

Yuan is losing value against the US Dollar

China’s yuan tumbles to its lowest in nearly eight years as dollar jumps after US election
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/14/chin...r-lows-as-dollar-jumps-after-us-election.html

According to Western analysts like The Conference Board, China's real growth rate was 3,9 percent last year, not 6, 5. https://www.conference-board.org/chinacenter/

This is just one example to show you how speculative such rankings are. Pakistan will rise, that is certain, but I don't believe that Western countries will drop behind newly industrialized countries like Indonesia, Turkey or Russia.

Take the UK. There is a major risk (Brexit) to heavily fall back in economic terms. Such rankings are soothsaying.

China deliberately weakens Yen as it gives sigh of relief to its export industry. China has already surpassed USA in terms of purchasing power parity and there is no second opinion in the world that it is likely to overtake in GDP nominal in few years

 

[GumNaam]

here you go indians, apply generously on your burning anus, no need to thank me.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

In another words it asserts to the fact that we will continue to remain second largest economy of South Asia.

I think these figures do not count the potential of CPEC as frankly speaking I was trying to compare Pakistan's GDP from the IMF website and my calculations also came to similar conclusion without realising the potential of CPEC.

The GDP (PPP) stands at around 988 Billion USD in 2016 and it will likely be doubled in 8-10 years, you already reach that target. IMF projects that Pakistan's GDP will be around $1.4 trillion USD by 2021 but frankly speaking their estimations are based on the historical data and short term forecast when Pakistan was under performing (often between 1-3% growth in GDP).

So I guess it is likely with CPEC factor it will be able to create more jobs and higher spending power for the people and exceed expectations from the figures forecast by both IMF and PriceWaterCooper. IMF estimates the economy of Pakistan will grow at around 5% whereas we are hopefully CPEC will do 1-2% growth in the GDP easily taking it beyond 6-7% and the figures will change quickly.

But what's about putting the undocumented part of the economy into equations? In the Turkish case, it's 40% of the official figures, and the government doesn't want to touch it. It's a great source of P2K (patronage to kinship) activities, which is the central theme of the Muslim societies. In Pak's case I am pretty sure it's >100%. And, going by Pak security oriented mindset it's kept as a secret...

 

[Abingdonboy]

In 2014 it was stated in the PWC report that Pakistan will take the 15th spot with $4253 billion in PPP terms. However in the 2016 PWC report Pakistan will be at 16th spot with $4236 billion in PPP terms. Pakistan has been downgraded by 1 spot and 17 billion dollars.


Must be the power of CPEC....

 

[Taimoor Khan]

One thing that is missing from this projection is the future geopolitics which will impact the economic conditions of the nations. We have to understand that it is American lead west which is pumping and bank rolling Indian economy, without their support and blessing, India will come crashing down, back to maruti days. Looking in future and judging how center of power is gradually slipping away from American led west to China/Russia block with Pakistan being part of this, will surly without any doubt will have impact on socio-economic development of Pakistan and India. America is going into isolationist mode and we already seeing indications of this with LM now being told to hold that thoughts of moving F16 plants to India.

 

[VCheng]

In 2014 it was stated in the PWC report that Pakistan will take the 15th spot with $4253 billion in PPP terms. However in the 2016 PWC report Pakistan will be at 16th spot with $4236 billion in PPP terms. Pakistan has been downgraded by 1 spot and 17 billion dollars.


Must be the power of CPEC....

Just a revision of estimates of future growth, that is all.

 

[Danish saleem]

because India's growth has a direct consequence on your security paradigm
The more India faster grows the more money it has to spend on defence, It's also inflates India's regional as well as International clout and In consequence of it pakistan feel itself more vulnerable and insecure.

So from the pakistani perspective they should grow at least what India has been growing otherwise the gap between two countries is just going to get bigger by each passing year.

look at the chart below to understand this

and then watch this video

so it's important from pakistan's perspective to maintain parity between two countries

brother,

India have to feed 1.22 Billion People , and Pakistan just have to take care of around 240 Million, so impact on progress will be far better in Pakistan as compere to India.

 

[MultaniGuy]

brother,

India have to feed 1.22 Billion People , and Pakistan just have to take care of around 240 Million, so impact on progress will be far better in Pakistan as compere to India.

India is overpopulated. Agreed with you there.

 

[haviZsultan]

With 4-5th largest population by that time it will be a joke if we are the 20th most powerful economy by that time. We should aim for atleast being the 4th largest economy by that time. By this standard a lot of our people will still be living in poverty by 2030.

 

[MultaniGuy]

With 4-5th largest population by that time it will be a joke if we are the 20th most powerful economy by that time. We should aim for atleast being the 4th largest economy by that time. By this standard a lot of our people will still be living in poverty by 2030.

Guess you have a point there. There is much work to be done.

 

[proud_indian]

brother,

India have to feed 1.22 Billion People , and Pakistan just have to take care of around 240 Million, so impact on progress will be far better in Pakistan as compere to India.

what kind of mathematics is this?
To cater the needs of bigger population we have a bigger gdp as well to provide and not to forget much bigger foreign reserve



@Danish saleem

look at these chart to understand what is actually happening

I guess you've got the idea


@Nilgiri @Abingdonboy would you like to add something?

 

[Danish saleem]

what kind of mathematics is this?
To cater the needs of bigger population we have a bigger gdp as well to provide and not to forget much bigger foreign reserve



@Danish saleem

look at these chart to understand what is actually happening

I guess you've got the idea

@Nilgiri @Abingdonboy

Brother,

where is the chart of Per ca pita Income comparison.

 

[proud_indian]

Brother,

where is the chart of Per ca pita Income comparison.

here you go bro

if you need any data just let me know

 

[KediKesenFare3]

China deliberately weakens Yen as it gives sigh of relief to its export industry. China has already surpassed USA in terms of purchasing power parity and there is no second opinion in the world that it is likely to overtake in GDP nominal in few years

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/china-exports-2016-1.3933840

Don't get me wrong. China's problems are luxury problems. Still, many people are overestimating China's economic performance with respect to the distant future.

China's annual growth rate | 2007 - 2017

Declining growth rates + weak Yuan + assuming no major economic shock will occur in China = not possible to catch up with the US

Basic math.

 

[Danish saleem]

here you go bro

if you need any data just let me know

what about per capita future forecast?