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Pakistan shakes off US shackles

fatman17

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Dear Forum,
This is the ground reality...




Pakistan shakes off US shackles

The pervasive impression is that the impending judgement by the Supreme Court regarding the propriety of President General Pervez Musharraf's re-election as president of Pakistan for another term prompted the timing of his decision to impose emergency rule last week. The temptation to view the developments in Pakistan through the prism of democracy is almost irresistible.

But democracy is not even a sub-theme in the current world of
realpolitik in Pakistan. At best it forms a miniscule part of the story. What emerges beyond doubt is that Musharraf's move enjoys the support of the top brass of the Pakistan armed forces. Significantly, he signed the proclamation on emergency rule in his capacity as the chief of army staff rather than as the president. He has thereby signaled that the Pakistan armed forces as a whole are backing his move.

It is on occasions such as this that the incomprehensible alchemy of the US-Pakistan relationship fleetingly surfaces. Clearly, it stands to reason that Musharraf took care to consult Washington and Britain before announcing his move. But what was the nature of these consultations?

Musharraf spoke to British Prime Minister Gordon Brown on Thursday, hardly hours prior to the proclamation of emergency rule. Britain was the prime mover of the Musharraf-Benazir Bhutto rapprochement. Musharraf kept in view the need to assuage British feelings.

Equally, Admiral William Fallon, commander of the US Central Command, was on a visit to Pakistan, and he actually happened to be in the general headquarters of the Pakistan armed forces in Rawalpindi when Musharraf was giving the final touches to his proclamation on emergency rule. The political symbolism was unmistakable.

US reluctantly acquiesces
Fallon did his best to "dissuade" Musharraf from going ahead with his plan, but had to ultimately give in. Fallon apparently warned Musharraf that future American aid for his beleaguered regime might be in jeopardy if the US Congress took a negative view of the rollback of civil liberties in Pakistan. If so, it is obvious that Fallon failed to impress the tough Pakistani top brass. Equally, Musharraf estimated Washington has no choice but to support his regime for the foreseeable future.

This wouldn't be the first time that the generals in Rawalpindi have done their homework as regards their corporate interests and proceeded to set aside Washington's unsolicited counsel. Time and again in Pakistan's history it has appeared that the unequal relationship between the US and Pakistan is far from a one-dimensional tie-up. It would be a mistake to regard Pakistan as a mindless American proxy - which is part of the reason why China and Russia have an abiding interest in that country.

A famous instance arose when, as the then deputy secretary of state in the Bill Clinton administration, Strobe Talbott, narrates in his book Engaging India, his desperate pleas with the Pakistani leadership not to emulate India in exploding a nuclear device in 1998 were simply ignored by the Pakistani generals.

A decade earlier, another Pakistani military strongman, General Zia ul-Haq, simply refused to toe the US line to agree to an Afghan settlement that Washington had worked out with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, which would have restored Kabul's traditional neutrality in the geopolitics of the region. Zia insisted Pakistan's influence on a future regime in Kabul ought to be predominant.

Thus, in retrospect, it turns out that the former prime minister Bhutto's abrupt departure for Dubai in the United Arab Emirates last Thursday against the advice rendered by most of her party leaders happened just in time when it dawned on the US and Britain that despite their strong urgings, the generals were hell-bent on the imposition of emergency rule. The US and Britain counseled her to get out of harm's way and quickly leave the country.
The initial statements of "regret" by the Western capitals, especially Washington, need to be taken with a pinch of salt. To be sure, the US policy toward Pakistan finds itself in a cul-de-sac. Musharraf's move coincides almost to the hour with the thundering speech by President George W Bush at the Heritage Foundation, a Washington-based think-tank, on Thursday in which he blasted the US Congress for failing to take his "war on terror" not seriously enough, and he went on to compare Osama bin Laden to Adolf Hitler and Vladimir Lenin.

Addressing his neo-conservative acolytes, Bush came back to his favorite theme that via his "war on terror", he was actually waging a global war for democracy and freedom. He compared Islamist "plans to build a totalitarian Islamist empire ... stretching from Europe to North Africa, the Middle East and South East Asia" to the Third Reich. He claimed that US-led campaigns have "liberated 50 million people from the clutches of tyranny" in Iraq and Afghanistan. Bush said the people in the Middle East are "looking to the United States to stand up for them".

Alas, we knew only a day later that just as Bush was speaking, one of his staunchest allies in his pet global war was squashing democracy and freedom. The US doublespeak becomes all too apparent in the mildly reproachful comment over Musharraf's move, bordering on resignation, by the US spokesmen. It indicates that Washington's dealings with the Musharraf regime will continue and normal business will resume once the dust has settled down.

Military ties intact
The statement by the Pentagon spokesman is particularly important for the top brass of the Pakistani armed forces. The spokesman said the development "does not impact our military support for Pakistan ... Pakistan is a very important ally in the 'war on terror' and he [Secretary of Defense Robert Gates] is closely following the fast-moving developments there".

Traditionally, it is the opinion of the Pentagon that matters most to the brass in Rawalpindi - and not the perspectives of the State Department or readings by the Central Intelligence Agency. As long as the Pentagon's support remains intact, as is the case presently, Rawalpindi will be pleased, and Musharraf will continue to enjoy the support of the corps commanders.
At the moment, Musharraf is not looking much beyond the endorsement of the emergency rule by the top brass of the Pakistani armed forces. He doesn't care for his popularity ratings in Pakistan. And, conceivably, he wouldn't be particularly flustered by the international reaction either. Musharraf has assessed that the worsening situation in Afghanistan leaves the US with hardly much choice in the matter other than working with the regime that he chooses to head.

Developments in the western Afghan province of Farah (bordering Iran) and the southern province of Kandahar have taken a particularly serious turn lately. The US failed to extract any increased troop commitments at the recent North Atlantic Treaty Organization defense ministers meeting. German Chancellor Angela Merkel during her first-ever visit to Kabul on Saturday flatly refused to deploy German troops in the volatile southern provinces of Afghanistan. The new government in Tokyo has cut back on Japan's involvement by stopping refueling of US ships servicing the war in Afghanistan. The new government in Poland is reviewing its association with Bush's war.

No need of US advice
Thus, Musharraf knows that the US dependence on him is only likely to deepen in the coming weeks. Besides, Musharraf has succeeded in underscoring in Western capitals that he is the anchor of "stability" in Pakistan. No matter the actual ground reality, he has succeeded in projecting a perceived threat from militants. (The international community has no independent means of verifying these threat perceptions either.)

To a degree, even the reaction by New Delhi - a mild statement of "regret" and a pious hope that "normalcy" will return soon - is an acknowledgement that Musharraf has maintained an overall climate of peace and tranquillity as well as a degree of predictability in relations with India. Western capitals are quite aware of the extreme fluidity of the situation but are literally forced to suspend their disbelief in Musharraf's claim as the guardian of Pakistan's stability. What choice do they have?

In the short term, therefore, Musharraf doesn't have to look over his shoulder any more or listen to irritating Western hectoring about democracy while he goes about resetting the parameters of Pakistan's political life. He correctly estimates that what matters most is his apparent willingness to wage a strong military campaign against militants; his helping hand in advancing an "intra-Afghan dialogue" involving the Taliban; and his role in the event of Washington deciding on a military showdown with Iran in the coming months.

In sum, Musharraf assesses he has a relatively free hand to press ahead with his political agenda within Pakistan. He must be pretty much fed up with the intrusive attitude adopted by pretentious US functionaries and think-tanks in recent months with regard to Pakistan's political future. He has a point insofar as there aren't any real "Pakistan experts" as such that the Bush administration could claim to have. His sense of exasperation was clearly showing in recent weeks that functionaries in the US administration who have no real grasp of the tough lay of the land in Pakistan have been dictating to him democracy lessons. They didn't even understand that one way or another, historically, Pakistan always remained on the razor's edge while life moved on.

Washington's insistence that Bhutto should join his team was the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back. Under tremendous US pressure, Musharraf, seemingly against his gut instincts, acquiesced with the game plan choreographed in Washington. He knows Bhutto is a complex personality. But he also knows she has influential supporters, like US ambassador to the United Nations, Zalmay Khalilzad, whose antipathies toward Musharraf date to his posting in Kabul.

All the same, within the fortnight since Bhutto's arrival in Pakistan from exile on October 12, Musharraf has been proved right. The American blueprint for Pakistan's democratic transformation became stuck in the mud. It was so visible that all could see, especially when Bhutto began trading charges that the establishment was conspiring to kill its future prime minister, and the negotiations between the two sides over fine-tuning their "deal" ground to a halt. The frustrations deepened when Bhutto realized that she was virtually confined to her Karachi home.

Ironically, Musharraf found he could seize the high ground once it began to dawn on Washington that its hare-brained plan to foist Bhutto atop the political heap in Islamabad was simply unworkable. Plainly put, Bhutto was not acceptable to the Pakistani establishment. Washington had no "Plan B", either.

Musharraf's agenda
Musharraf struck fast. Now that he has "liberated" himself from the political burden that Washington expected him to carry, he feels free to act on his own terms. This means first and foremost that he will hold both the offices of president and chief of army staff, at least until the elections, whenever they are held (the January date seems unlikely now). He will in all probability expect a new Supreme Court to endorse his re-election as president, which will enable him to be sworn in for another term in office. Musharraf's overwhelming win in last month's presidential polls has not yet been ratified by the court.

Musharraf has certainly sized up that Bhutto's political image has been badly tarnished due to her controversial "deal" with him. It will take a while for her to regain her credibility in popular opinion within Pakistan. From Musharraf's point of view, therefore, in the short term at least, she is virtually rendered ineffectual as a rallying point of opposition, even assuming that she has the will to act in such a role.

But he may well keep a line of communication open to her. Who knows, he may still have a need for her, but that is something for the future. More important, Musharraf needs to factor that even after the present setback, Washington and London may still not give up hope completely regarding Bhutto's return to mainstream politics in Pakistan's leadership structure. The sad reality is that there are no other credible figures in the democratic opposition other than Bhutto who would be prepared in today's circumstances to play according to the US script.
Meanwhile, Musharraf has virtually decided to continue to rely on the present ruling party, the Pakistan Muslim League, which has staunchly resisted Bhutto's political accommodation. He has chosen not to upset the apple cart. The intelligence agencies feel greatly relieved that the judiciary has been cracked and the dark days of public accountability are over.

Musharraf continues to rely on the resourceful, crafty Choudhury clan for holding fort in Punjab, the heartland of Pakistani politics. His equations with the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM), the party of the "Mohajirs" (migrants from India at the time of the partition in 1947), remain intact. MQM leader Altaf Hussain, who lives in exile in London, has mildly distanced himself from the imposition of emergency rule in Pakistan, but he pointedly drew attention to the "reasons" behind Musharraf's decision. Hussain said sections of the judiciary, the legal fraternity and the media exceeded their "rights, traditions and etiquettes".

The MQM's support for the regime is important for Musharraf. It ensures that Pakistan's most populous city of Karachi takes the imposition of emergency in its stride. Again, it is highly possible that some elements of the Islamic parties, such as the Jamaat-e-Ulema-e-Islam of Maulana Fazlur Rehman will be co-opted in the coming weeks. Rehman is a valuable link with the militant Islamist camp. The regime has also assessed that former prime minister Nawaz Sharif's return to Pakistan can be endlessly stalled in the new circumstances with a pliant judiciary.

All in all, the chances of an eruption of popular agitation under the leadership of the democratic opposition are almost nil in immediate terms. This is despite the fact that the reasons advanced by Musharraf for imposing emergency rule lack credibility. He can now count on the intelligence agencies to play their traditional role of manipulating a coalition of political forces that will steer the regime successfully past the next parliamentary elections. Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz has hinted elections are unlikely for another year. Musharraf is evidently planning for the long haul.

Who has the last laugh?
When the epitaph of the Bush era in Pakistan's contemporary history finally gets to be written in a year's time, there will be a complex, engrossing story to tell. Bush began reasonably well in 2001 by threatening to bomb the daylight out of Pakistan and to dispatch that country to the Stone Age. His threat of shock and awe indeed worked. Musharraf quickly fell in line in the "war on terror". The world community applauded Bush. But in the process, Musharraf ensured his regime gained international legitimacy.

Also, Musharraf promptly put a price tag on Pakistan's role in the "war on terror". He negotiated hard. And he extracted out of the Bush administration in bits and pieces over the past six years a staggering amount of US$10 billion as assistance. That kept the Pakistani economy going, the army well equipped and his support base intact.

Of course, he took care to endear himself and the Pakistan army as an indispensable ally to Bush. As time passed, like a skilful commando, he began walking a fine line - in and out of the "war on terror" - almost unnoticed, as he pleased. Certainly, Bush noticed but had to pretend he didn't. There was no other option. Bush was preoccupied in Iraq, and Musharraf knew that as well.

In fact, Bush, who once saw Russia's President Vladimir Putin's soul in his deep blue eyes and liked it, has no choice but to keep insisting he is on a "hunt" with Musharraf in the Hindu Kush. Now, with a much-weakened Bush presidency almost entering a lame-duck phase, it is only natural that Musharraf feels he must look ahead. He will know by now as well as anyone that his number one public liability within Pakistan is his close association with the George W Bush presidency.

But continued US backing remains vital for Musharraf's regime. How he reconciles the conflicting interests remains to be seen. One thing is for sure. None of Pakistan's previous military dictators had such mastery over the art of the possible.
 
Interesting analysis, but as clever as Musharraf may have been, it still doesn't answer for me the question of what exactly will be acomplished by this act? Is he going to push through more social, political and economic reforms - how is the WOT going to be conducted differently?
 
Interesting analysis, but as clever as Musharraf may have been, it still doesn't answer for me the question of what exactly will be acomplished by this act? Is he going to push through more social, political and economic reforms - how is the WOT going to be conducted differently?

The main thing that he earned out of this is making his mandate legal. The elections coul dhave been declared illegal and he would have been forced to step down as army chief or president.

My gut feeling is that in a few months he would announce emergency being lifted as 'normalcy has returned and the nation has fought of the evils'. And again he would be cheered as the saviour when he was just saving his own ***.
 
The main thing that he earned out of this is making his mandate legal. The elections coul dhave been declared illegal and he would have been forced to step down as army chief or president.

My gut feeling is that in a few months he would announce emergency being lifted as 'normalcy has returned and the nation has fought of the evils'. And again he would be cheered as the saviour when he was just saving his own ***.

Honestly the only thing that makes sense, at this point, is that he was trying to save his kursi, but that doesn't jive with his personality and reputation of not being corrupt. He hasn't amassed billions, or constructed mansions in Europe, so if it is Kursi, then he genuinely believes that the direction the country was going in was dangerous, and that BB would have been Pakistan's downfall.

I personally think the reaction from DC was one of surprise, since it was toned down initially, and a lot sharper later (which could just be for domestic consumption- their actions will speak louder), so is it possible that the US was attempting to pull another Iran? There was an article in the news that what acted as the catalyst for this emergency wa a taped conversation of the CJ in which he claimed that he knew that 8 judges would rule against Mush, and who they were - 8 judges also signed the order, in record time, after the coup, declaring it illegal.
 
Interesting analysis, but as clever as Musharraf may have been, it still doesn't answer for me the question of what exactly will be acomplished by this act? Is he going to push through more social, political and economic reforms - how is the WOT going to be conducted differently?


i think we all have to wait for the answer!. for example the WOT could be conducted on his (Pakistan's) terms.!
 
There was an article in the news that what acted as the catalyst for this emergency wa a taped conversation of the CJ in which he claimed that he knew that 8 judges would rule against Mush, and who they were - 8 judges also signed the order, in record time, after the coup, declaring it illegal.

one very influential journalist has confirmed this!
the full article/news has been posted!
 
He was the man who use to speak about democracy at the top of his voice, going for emergency rule, in my opinion will futhure hurt his reputation among the people. But hes not the only person responsible for it, our opposition parties had palyed a huge part getting it imposed. The article is well written and i aggree there isnt much washinton can do about it.
 
Well judiciary is political party now. Killed its own impartiality.
 
There was an article in the news that what acted as the catalyst for this emergency wa a taped conversation of the CJ in which he claimed that he knew that 8 judges would rule against Mush, and who they were - 8 judges also signed the order, in record time, after the coup, declaring it illegal.

one very influential journalist has confirmed this!
the full article/news has been posted!

I think that should make everyone pause and think, even those who are extremely critical of Muharraf. Why was the judiciary playing such a dangerous game? It also sheds a different light on the postponement of the verdict to just a couple of days before Musharraf was planning to doff his uniform, ostensibly an attempt to deny him any time to react. It also implies that the judiciary was not impartial at all, and may deserve the majority of the blame for this turn of events. Musharraf was on his way out. He would have hung up his uniform and we would have had a peaceful transition. There is more to this than meets the eye.
 
I would support Mush if such is the intention.

But he can't keep the blackout on the media on for long. He can't arrest the opposition for long.

He needs to up his PR game, but can't stop the propaganda against him by force.

It would be interesting to see if he can take Pakistan out of US shackles through all this. Also expect some more assassination attempts on Musharraf and this time really serious ones if that really is the case.

We all know the prevailing theory behind who killed Zia and through whom. Both of them seem to be in the picture this time around too.

Musharraf IS good for Pakistan. However America and BB are not. I sincerely hope the NRO is in the dustbin by now.
 
Musharaf know's its difficult to Survive in Pakistan if not in Power, He is reluctant to give away Army chief's post fearing another coup. He knows well that his day's are numbered when he is out of Power.
 
agreed Haider and Agno here judiciary is not considered is not considered impartial as almost all the lawyers are affiliated with political parties.
Every local as well as Supreme Court lawyers have their bodies calles bar associtions in other words equaliant to unions at different institutes.

Now if any of you has the he experience and knowledge to know the names of different organisations of lawyers. some of these are
People's Lawyers Forum backed by PPP of BB, Malgari Wakilan backed by Awami National Party, Muslim Lawyers Forum backed by (PML-N) and same is the case with other political parties who back a concerned group of lawyers during their elections also.

Aitizaz Ahsan recently been elected president of Superme Court Bar Association.
Now coming to EX-CJ Iftikhar Chaudhary and as fatman and others here said the news of his disclosing the verdict in advance to his friends can be seen as unprofessionalims rather betrayl with the profession.
This itself undermins the crdibility of Chaudhry Iftikhar.
and one more thing how can on earth a man who had head the campaign against the president can be termed impartial ????

Though the reference against his was not a good move but than all these were within the constituional powers of the government if the CJ was not gulity and these were fabricated refrences than he should have refused to politicise the issue and counter the these allegations in court.

But instead he advocated for political parties and strangly no one questioned the expenditure, the amount of money run into billions spend on CJ campaign.
Who paid for that ??
Normaly apart from high profile lawyers all others; thousands of them are even without job and have no resources.
So who spend that huge money ?????

its anybody's guess.
 
Analysis from Pakistan Think Tank.org

“President Musharraf is hanging by a thread and is totally confused about what may happen to him. Incompetence, corruption, betrayals and coercion by allies makes a deadly package for any ruler let alone for a ruler who is struggling for political, moral and religious legitimacy. Whatever political chaos and confusion is happening in Pakistan these days is partly to do with incompetence and corruption of present ruling party and Presidential advisors and allies and partly to do with US insistence to force Benazir down the throat of President Musharraf and also to force him to throw the caution to winds when dealing with religious radicals in tribal and Swat regions. The result is that today after being 8 years in power, President Musharraf is weakest today, being taken for a ride by all and sundry not sure of being in power next week or the week after next and stands most vulnerable and exposed in the cold against very hostile elements from external and internal threat axis.

If he is still there it is because his opposition is bunch of comedians and army remains firmly behind him so far. That has more to do with his good luck than brilliant strategy. But he is indeed pushing himself beyond limits now.

So what is happening now is that judges of SC are really concerned about the possibility of a Martial law in the country in case they give an adverse judgment against the General. If they were not concerned about this threat, we have no doubt that they would have judicially slaughtered the General by now. Since the military is still loyal and disciplined behind the General and the political opposition is still much divided to offer any helping hand to the Supreme Court, the only hope which the SC has is from the US. If the US can guarantee that there will be no Martial law in the country, the judges would feel very comfortable but so far this is not happening. Few judges of SC are even giving mixed signals and defending their role to take a fresh oath if the military rule is enforced or warning the nation that their adverse judgment could lead to a “revolution”.

In our assessment, the SC judges are divided over the possibility and still the US has not been able to give them enough assurance about the eventuality. Not just the political parties but also the SC and judges also have a huge stake if the General decides to get radical in case of an adverse judgment. Most of the judges would prefer to let the system make progress and not to rock the boat. But this is not decided yet and the judges are needlessly dragging the case which could have been finished two weeks ago. They say they would finish it next week but we have to see.

So what next from here? We shall summarize it in sequential priority:

Supreme Court is waiting to see the direction of the wind to announce its judgment on Presidential eligibility. If the SC feels that opposition or the US is not able to convince the General to accept the adverse judgment and fear of Martial law gets the better of them, they will allow the General to continue as President. In that case, he will take the oath and take his uniform off, form a caretaker government and hold elections as schedule. Else, he will not go down without a fight and may impose Martial law and continue as army chief as well as the President despite US pressure. His sense of survival may trigger fully once he sees that he is falling off the cliff for good and may get very radical. Right now, he is under tremendous pressure from US to avoid any such radical move and he is frozen in indecision waiting for the SC to decide. SC is not in a hurry either and is taking their time.

US would continue to aggressively intrude into national political confusion to make sure that it gets what it wants – BB in power and Musharraf weak enough not to be able to resist what BB does in future. This is their objective and they plan to get very ruthless about it. Their success would mean political or even physical death of General Musharraf. He is indeed passing through most deadly and riskiest times of his tenure in power. Now US want him removed! The only way President Musharraf can remain relevant for the Americans and get control back is that if he makes BB politically irrelevant. So far, he has not been able to do that.

He was being squeezed from 4 sides ruthlessly and finally his own sense of survival got the better of him. Those four elements which were increasing pressure on him were:

Supreme Court Judges, CJ and SC Bar association who were finally convinced that US would not allow the General to impose Martial law and emergency. The Chief Justice and some of his closest comrades were about to go ahead and slaughter the General.

The Religious Radicals and Militants who had almost taken away the State writ from the government and were taking over large territories within the country even in settled areas through their ruthless campaign of bombings, assassinations and terrorism.

The United States, which was actually beginning to dictate even the micro level details in war against religious radicals and next government and political setup of the country forcing the General to abandon his long term allies PML(Q) and giving radical concessions to US candidate BB. This had totally isolated him politically in the country as PML (Q) was extremely disappointed while BB kept making grounds in leaps and bounds.

The private media which was never given any media policy in the haste to appear as “liberal and democratic” was being fully exploited by the religious radicals as well everyone who could pay and buy air time including foreign governments. The fact is that while the government liberalized the media, it played into the hands of many dubious players and remained directionless even in issues as critical as war against terrorism and militancy.
So it was natural that his move would hurt all the above four players who were pushing him to the wall. And so it did.

Pakistan Think Tank
 
:) ahhh Agno you had posted it from their site.

Good but let me send you when icome online the entire week report by them :)
 
I would support Mush if such is the intention.

But he can't keep the blackout on the media on for long. He can't arrest the opposition for long.

He needs to up his PR game, but can't stop the propaganda against him by force.

It would be interesting to see if he can take Pakistan out of US shackles through all this. Also expect some more assassination attempts on Musharraf and this time really serious ones if that really is the case.

We all know the prevailing theory behind who killed Zia and through whom. Both of them seem to be in the picture this time around too.

Musharraf IS good for Pakistan. However America and BB are not. I sincerely hope the NRO is in the dustbin by now.

How is he trying to shake of US shackles/influence through this act, i just cant get it.
 
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