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Pakistan: Rampant inflation piles on the pressure

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Pakistan is witnessing an unprecedented economic turmoil, with the inflation rate rising exponentially. DW spoke to some locals who say it has become impossible for them to make ends meet.
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Abid Hussain, 40, a factory worker in Faisalabad city, says he is planning to send his two children to an Islamic madrassa as he cannot afford to pay their fee for a private school. The madrassa offers free education, boarding and meals, he said.

"My wife is not in favor of the children's madrassa education," he told DW. "But I earn around rupees 28,000 (€139) per month, and my income is not sufficient to make ends meet. I pay around 3,000 rupees only for the electricity bill," he added.

Hussain lives in a small house that he shares with his brother and his family. The nine family members are crammed in two rooms, as they cannot afford to rent a bigger house.

Lower-and middle-income classes are struggling to buy basic food items as inflation skyrockets in Pakistan.

Prime Minister Imran Khan's government has come under heavy criticism for not reining in the price hike. The petrol price is over 145 rupees per liter, and the rupee value is rapidly depreciating.

Khan, who came to power in 2018, vowed to fix the country's economy and improve governance, but experts say that after three years at the helm, he has not been able to deliver on his promises. His popularity, therefore, has been waning, and political experts suggest it would be difficult for him to secure a second term in the 2023 general election.

Pakistan inflation rate since 2015

Impossible to make ends meet
According to Pakistan's Dawn newspaper, in the past three years, the vegetable oil price has risen 27% on average. Retail prices for cooking oil, sugar and pulses have also increased manifold since October 2018.

Dr Azra Talat Saeed, a prominent economist, says the gasoline price has seen a hike of 49% in just one year.

An official at Pakistan's Poverty Alleviation Fund told DW on condition of anonymity that they have been flooded with phone calls and applications for financial assistance, adding that even sections of middle-class Pakistanis are applying for educational funds as they want to save money for food items.

Laborer Hussain says he cannot afford to buy fish and mutton anymore. "We can only eat meat on special occasions," he said. "The last three years have economically been the worst in my life because of the high inflation," he added.

Hussain is not the only one who is facing financial hardship. Laal Khan, a 50-year-old cab driver in Islamabad, told DW that his children were recently expelled from school because he could not pay their fee. "Then I contacted the Poverty Alleviation Fund, which paid the fee, but I don't know how I am going to pay the fee for the next month."

Khan said the economic situation was much better in 2018. "I could at least make ends meet, but I don't know how we are going to survive now."

The inflation rate in Pakistan under former Premier Nawaz Sharif in 2015 was 4.5%, which has almost doubled to 8.9% in 2021.

A dire economic situation
Economist Saeed says that Pakistan's 2019 economic deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is responsible for the price hike. "Finance and revenue advisors to PM Khan have acknowledged that the IMF wanted Islamabad to increase electricity and gas prices, as well as taxes," she told DW.

Pakistan's poorest overwhelmed by high inflation
Pakistani finance officials are trying to close a deal with the IMF to release a suspended $1 billion (€0.87 billion) tranche from a bailout package, which Islamabad says is desperately needed to stabilize the country's struggling economy.

In May 2019, Khan's government reached an agreement with the IMF after months of difficult negotiations on a $6-billion bailout package.

The 39-month bailout program is subject to regular IMF reviews of Pakistan's economic policy and growth.

In January 2020, the program was put on hold after Prime Minister Khan did not follow IMF recommendations to increase electricity prices and impose additional taxes.

In March 2021, the IMF released a $500 million tranche, but talks in June to release further funds were inconclusive.

Pakistan's economy contracted by 0.47% in 2019-20 during the coronavirus pandemic, which hobbled the already weak economy.

Prime Minister Khan's top finance adviser, Shaukat Tarin, said last month he was optimistic that the latest round of negotiations on economic reforms with the IMF would result in the disbursement of the $1 billion tranche. In total, Pakistan has so far received $2 billion out of the $6-billion package via the IMF.

Fluctuation in the global market
Opposition parties are blaming Khan's government for the economic mismanagement, but authorities say the instability in the global market due to the COVID pandemic is the main reason behind rising inflation in Pakistan.

Inflation rates in South Asian countries

"We are not responsible for this inflation," Jamshed Iqbal Cheema, a former advisor to PM Khan on food security, told DW.

"Prices have increased in the global market, and this has had an impact on Pakistan as well," he said, adding that the government has offered subsidies to mitigate the financial hardship for citizens.

Amid the economic turmoil, the poor are relying on charity organizations to avail basic food items. An official at the Saylani Welfare Trust non-governmental organization told DW on condition of anonymity that more people are seeking food items and financial assistance than ever before.

 
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what would you suggest be done to ease this pressure? other than ending corruption, of course.
 
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Well according to some overseas pakistanis, Pakistan is one of cheapest countries and having cheap food and stuff. I suggest all these Pakistanis should leave the foreign countries and settle in Pakistan and enjoy the cheap and affordable life.
 
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Well according to some overseas pakistanis, Pakistan is one of cheapest countries and having cheap food and stuff. I suggest all these Pakistanis should leave the foreign countries and settle in Pakistan and enjoy the cheap and affordable life.

It is comparatively. That is not to say that things being cheaper than elsewhere make them affordable to the poor. Those are two different matters.
 
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It is comparatively. That is not to say that things being cheaper than elsewhere make them affordable to the poor. Those are two different matters.

Exactly brother. Its something most ppl dont understand. Doesnt matter if petrol is cheaper than UK, we cant afford it.
 
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Well according to some overseas pakistanis, Pakistan is one of cheapest countries and having cheap food and stuff. I suggest all these Pakistanis should leave the foreign countries and settle in Pakistan and enjoy the cheap and affordable life.
That's rich. Honestly, when entire Pakistan can't match in value what we send in just remittances, I think we have a right to say and feel how we do. And honestly, this inflationary pressure is quite artificial with all the hoarding that a common Pakistani is doing. In a way, we ourselves have brought it onto ourselves. With exports rising and capital investments touching all time high, our economy is on the right track.
 
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Exactly brother. Its something most ppl dont understand. Doesnt matter if petrol is cheaper than UK, we cant afford it.

Unfortunately some Pakistani people are still idol worshippers, unfortunately our idols are not political figures. It doesn't matter which party they support, each party has it's share of idol worshippers. Their leader can do no wrong, and everyone else wrong. The truth is even a broken clock is right two times a day.

Inflation is up, cost of living is up, however in my opinion this is something that Pakistani people will have to live with. I don't think there is very much the government can do, for three main reasons.

1. The price of oil is up, which forces up the price of everything.
2. Pakistan is over-reliant on imports.
3. IMF conditions.

Some people will suggest cheaper fuel from Iran, there is a political risk with that. There are solutions like import subsitution, better planning of resources, moving freight/people by train powered by electricity, etc, but all these are long/medium term solutions. Nothing big can be done short term. Even the IMF money, we need it to pay loans etc. It's like asking a fat person to go on a diet - they'll lose weight slowly, nobody is going to look like a fitness model in the short term.

People on our forum and in wider society aren't thinking in a balanced way. Take the example of the man quoted in this article, Abid who makes 28,000PKR. Realistically, Abid was living in poverty 5 years ago too, he'll be living in poverty in 5 years time. 28,000 is far too low a salary to survive on in Pakistan. Abid isn't poor because of the current inflation - although Abid is definitely poorer because of the current inflation.
 
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Unfortunately some Pakistani people are still idol worshippers, unfortunately our idols are not political figures. It doesn't matter which party they support, each party has it's share of idol worshippers. Their leader can do no wrong, and everyone else wrong. The truth is even a broken clock is right two times a day.

Inflation is up, cost of living is up, however in my opinion this is something that Pakistani people will have to live with. I don't think there is very much the government can do, for three main reasons.

1. The price of oil is up, which forces up the price of everything.
2. Pakistan is over-reliant on imports.
3. IMF conditions.

Some people will suggest cheaper fuel from Iran, there is a political risk with that. There are solutions like import subsitution, better planning of resources, moving freight/people by train powered by electricity, etc, but all these are long/medium term solutions. Nothing big can be done short term. Even the IMF money, we need it to pay loans etc. It's like asking a fat person to go on a diet - they'll lose weight slowly, nobody is going to look like a fitness model in the short term.

People on our forum and in wider society aren't thinking in a balanced way. Take the example of the man quoted in this article, Abid who makes 28,000PKR. Realistically, Abid was living in poverty 5 years ago too, he'll be living in poverty in 5 years time. 28,000 is far too low a salary to survive on in Pakistan. Abid isn't poor because of the current inflation - although Abid is definitely poorer because of the current inflation.

The thing is we expected PTI to atleast improve governance and bring in better policies, insentives for export oriented businesses. We expected PTI followers to be more aware and not become blind patwaris or jialas but unfortunately that has happened. Worshipping ppl and stuff is the norm of most Pakistanis, yet claiming imaan.
That's rich. Honestly, when entire Pakistan can't match in value what we send in just remittances, I think we have a right to say and feel how we do. And honestly, this inflationary pressure is quite artificial with all the hoarding that a common Pakistani is doing. In a way, we ourselves have brought it onto ourselves. With exports rising and capital investments touching all time high, our economy is on the right track.

A prime example here. Start off with "ehsaan jatana", while forgetting that most remittances are sent by labourers and low skilled workers, who work hard and feed huge families back home. If u r sending money to ur family and feeding them, its not ur ehsaan on us.
Again, hoarding? Who is doing hoarding? The people or the few elite class mafia? I accept overseas Pakistanis have the best interest of Pakistan at heart, there is not an iota of doubt about their patriotism, but they are not well aware of ground situation.
How will an overseas voter know the performance of the local MPA with the ppl?
 
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The thing is we expected PTI to atleast improve governance and bring in better policies, insentives for export oriented businesses. We expected PTI followers to be more aware and not become blind patwaris or jialas but unfortunately that has happened. Worshipping ppl and stuff is the norm of most Pakistanis, yet claiming imaan.


A prime example here. Start off with "ehsaan jatana", while forgetting that most remittances are sent by labourers and low skilled workers, who work hard and feed huge families back home. If u r sending money to ur family and feeding them, its not ur ehsaan on us.
Again, hoarding? Who is doing hoarding? The people or the few elite class mafia? I accept overseas Pakistanis have the best interest of Pakistan at heart, there is not an iota of doubt about their patriotism, but they are not well aware of ground situation.
How will an overseas voter know the performance of the local MPA with the ppl?

Brother since you mentioned you are open to reasoning let's break down this inflation with logical reasoning. I will touch on the core of the argument and I will elaborate if you need me to go further in depth for clarity.

Every developing country needs a set amount of inflation depending on their productivity to grow. You can not overcome that. If you try to manage it artificially it becomes unsustainable and pile up. ( For example I have to pay some one 2 rupees every day if I don't pay him today tomorrow I will have to pay 4). It does not disappear.

If everything is going normally you expect a certain degree of inflation each year but it is staggered and your other indicators catch up like GNI. They move in parallel in a sustainable way.

The reason why we see a saw tooth graph in Pakistan is because of manipulation (the boom and bust cycle) , due to policies based on politics instead of economics.

Take one indicator e.g. Pkr. It is expected of our currency based on our macroeconomics that it will depreciate at a rate of 5-6% per annum (Indian currency e.g. at 2% annually because of their better macroeconomic stability).
If you fix the currency it becomes unsustainable and reverts back to its baseline but now its 20% suddenly in one year instead of in 4 years. ( It does not disappear).

Let's take a local example, agriculture. Keeping our baseline inflation projection agriculture follows that too, there are human beings working in agriculture that have necessities to fulfill ( since we do not have a completely free market other, I will use MSP for reference which should have been increased every year this did not happen and now the catching up). If this did not happen the sector will end up suffocating due to stagnation low capital flows and low investment.

Same goes for other sectors. Medical services, housing even barbershops.

Now to sum up, if we had been following a sustainable economic model we would not see periods of low inflation followed by catchup rather all the economic indicators move in parallel in a balanced way ( buying power, inflation, productivity).

The salaried class suffers the most as a result. Nominal GDP has crossed Pkr 53 trillion, economy is coming out of the bust cycle the effects will trickle down in due time.

Now coming to remittances, brother it might sound like 28b contribution is minute in comparison to overall 300b GDP. Remove that 28b and you will end up loosing most of 300b. Those 60b (remittances, exports) are necessary to run your economy from fuel to DAP (fertiliser) to industrial raw materials/ chems to pharma , the day you loose those 30b your economy will collapse.

It is painful to see the ignorance regarding the importance of remittances.
 
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Brother since you mentioned you are open to reasoning let's break down this inflation with logical reasoning. I will touch on the core of the argument and I will elaborate if you need me to go further in depth for clarity.

Every developing country needs a set amount of inflation depending on their productuctivity to grow. You can not overcome that. If you try to manage it artificially it becomes unsustainable and pile up. ( For example I have to pay some one 2 rupees every day if I don't pay him today tomorrow I will have to pay 4). It does not disappear.

If everything is going normally you expect a certain degree of inflation each year but it is staggered and your other indicators catch up like GNI. They move in parallel in a sustainable way.

The reason why we see a saw tooth graph in Pakistan is because of manipulation (the boom and bust cycle) , due to policies based on politics instead of economics.

Take one indicator e.g. Pkr. It is expected of our currency based on our macroeconomics that it will depretiate at a rate of 5-6% per annum (Indian currency e.g. at 2% annually because of their better macroeconomic stability).
If you fix the currency it becomes unsustainable and reverts back to its baseline but now its 20% suddenly in one year instead of in 4 years. ( It does not disappear).

Let's take a local example, agriculture. Keeping our baseline inflation projection agriculture follows that too, there are human beings working in agriculture that have necessities to fulfill ( since we do not have a completely free market other, I will use MSP for reference which should have been increased every year this did not happen and now the catching up). If this did not happen the sector will end up suffocating due to stagnation low capital flows and low investment.

Same goes for other sectors. Medical services, housing even barbershops.

Now to sum up, if we had been following a sustainable economic model we would not see periods of low inflation followed by catchup rather all the economic indicators move in parallel in a balanced way ( buying power, inflation, productivity).

The salaried class suffers the most as a result. Nominal GDP has crossed Pkr 53 trillion, economy is coming out of the bust cycle the effects will trickle down in due time.

Now coming to remittances, brother it might sound like 28b contribution is minute in comparison to overall 300b GDP. Remove that 28b and you will end up loosing most of 300b. Those 60b (remittances, exports) are necessary to run your economy from fuel to DAP (fertiliser) to industrial raw materials/ chems to pharma , the day you loose those 30b your economy will collapse.

It is painful to see the ignorance regarding the importance of remittances.

Thanks for the detailed post. The root of the problem is known, we know our economic policies have been crap. We know why this inflation but the question is, what have this govt changed? Have they changed policies? Are they supporting export oriented businesses and encouraging them? Has corruption been controlled? Is the governance improved? Im sorry but answer to most of questions is no. The reason is because just putting IK on PM seat while the same elite class rules wont change anything. If the sugar mafia, petrol mafia, construction mafia, land mafia etc all are part of govt then nothing will change. the status quo chanhe that imran promised is nowhere to be seen.
I have not discounted the importance of remittances at all, its one of our main source of foreign currency but that does not change many facts on the ground.
 
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Thanks for the detailed post. The root of the problem is known, we know our economic policies have been crap. We know why this inflation but the question is, what have this govt changed? Have they changed policies? Are they supporting export oriented businesses and encouraging them? Has corruption been controlled? Is the governance improved? Im sorry but answer to most of questions is no. The reason is because just putting IK on PM seat while the same elite class rules wont change anything. If the sugar mafia, petrol mafia, construction mafia, land mafia etc all are part of govt then nothing will change. the status quo chanhe that imran promised is nowhere to be seen.
I have not discounted the importance of remittances at all, its one of our main source of foreign currency but that does not change many facts on the ground.

Regarding policies or support. They have done a satisfactory job on the remittances, exports front ( you can judge yourself by the end of this year figures). SBP autonomy ( root cause of boom and bust cycles), focus on LSM, SME etc.
Regarding corruption/incompetence they are better off by a long margin ( maybe your metric is different) There is not a single poorly negotiated contract be it LNG or power sector or general tendering even metro bus. These are the things that damage a country the most, to give some perspective just 2015 IPP policy and resulting contracts has increased your power bill by roughly 50%. Focus on BOT, avoiding sovereign guarantees be it refinery investments or Gas pipeline or in power sector. ( Look at the financing model WAPDA is undertaking for Dam Construction, they are gearing up for a 2nd green bond now, its a sharp contrast to the usual loot and plunder done earlier in power sector).

Regarding Mafias, there is little truth to petrol and construction. Sugar, Land, Media on the other hand are real, they are part of this flawed system.

To be frank bro I think your observation is grossly uninformed especially on the incentives to export and I do not mean to come off as rude or anything.

The facts on ground are nothing unexpected rather the consequences of own doing, blaming expatriates is the last thing one should do because they are the only ones stepping up. I understand the bipolar response in general when the things get tough.
 
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Exactly brother. Its something most ppl dont understand. Doesnt matter if petrol is cheaper than UK, we cant afford it.

Bro Brent or Arab light costs the same for UK and Pakistan. The government can only regulate taxes, currently it is 0 % sales tax and 9 Rs petroleum levy ( lowest ever).

BTW Petrol is still more expensive in India than in Pakistan after taking into account respective buying power.

Public consumption/sales volume figures are one of the highest in October. People are consuming more and more even after the price hike.

Internationally oil prices will come down, they don't stay in these ranges for long.
 
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