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Pakistan now a bigger basket case than even Bangladesh
Devil’s brew of economic crisis, political chaos and natural disaster is arguably edging Pakistan toward failed state statusBy FEISEL KHANNOVEMBER 29, 2022
The infelicitous phrase “international basket case” might better apply to Pakistan today than when it was applied to Bangladesh in the 1970s — Pakistan’s former eastern half. Bangladesh has surpassed Pakistan economically and in quality of life.
There is even talk of Bangladesh graduating to upper middle-income country status. Quite a reversal of fortune as no one talks about Pakistan that way.
Pakistani economists lament that Bangladesh overtook Pakistan in just a couple of decades. Pakistan’s remittance earnings are greater than its stagnating export earnings, and both combined can’t pay for its imports.
As long as the unholy economic trinity of real estate development, retail business and the sugarcane barons remain outside the tax net, Pakistan will not be able to generate enough fiscal revenue to pay its bills, much less improve its socio-economic welfare indicators.
Pakistan has serious long-term structural economic problems, and the costs for this year’s devastating floods will be in the tens of billions of dollars. Suffering from mammoth floods every 10-12 years, which are becoming worse and more frequent due to climate change, Pakistan is one of the world’s most water-stressed countries.
Rebuilding the destroyed infrastructure will be impossible for a country that is already heavily indebted, desperate for an IMF bailout and begging for financial assistance from the world community. Inflation was high even before the floods hit and is now about 25% and climbing.
Miftah Ismail, who negotiated the US$1.17 billion temporary IMF bailout, was Pakistan’s fourth finance minister in five years. Ismail resigned and was replaced by ex-finance minister Ishaq Dar.
Dar has ruled out a loan default, although he has asked for $27 billion in bilateral-debt rescheduling, presumably to ensure the repayment of sukuk (Islamic bonds) due in December.
The ability of its economy to manufacture and export high-value-added items — essential for sustaining growth in real worker wages and living standards — is lower than comparable countries.
Further complicating the political situation is former prime minister Imran Khan who was removed in a vote of no confidence in April 2022. Still, Khan appears to be gaining in popularity daily and is planning mass rallies to destabilize the current government and force early elections.
General Bajwa, the head of Pakistan’s army and a particular target of Imran Khan’s, has retired, but his replacement, General Asim Munir, is also likely to be in Khan’s cross-hairs. This will further exacerbate political tensions and increase the likelihood of domestic unrest.
Pakistan is a country that is unstable at the best of times. It now confronts a veritable devil’s brew of natural disaster, economic crisis and political instability.
Feisal Khan is in the Economics Department at Hobart and William Smith Colleges, New York.
Pakistan now a bigger basket case than even Bangladesh - Asia Times
The infelicitous phrase "international basket case" might better apply to Pakistan today than when it was applied to Bangladesh in the 1970s — Pakistan’s
asiatimes.com
@Imran Khan any suggestion?