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Pakistan Military options in Kashmir today - a perspective

Signalian

PDF THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
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What counter HybridCounterAttack we can launch? On paper they got more of everything... so what to do?
@Signalian my very brother, seems like NorthernFront has been considered since 2010... we have been training there since 2011 with the Chinese as well.

So WinterWar is coming?

Some here on PDF fear Shock n Awe type opening salvoz... Your thoughts?
Its best for PA to conduct offense before IA makes its move. This is not just to take war on enemy's turf, doing as much damage as possible to weaken offensive strength of the enemy, buying time to strengthen own position and defenses, force the enemy to go on defensive, maintaining choice of place of attack and luring in enemy reinforcement in this sector instead of letting enemy choose to use those forces in some other theater of war. If IA manages to break PA's offensive and chances are very bright for that, then PA forces start to deploy back to rear positions, delaying enemy advance during retreat. This just offsets IA's plans for conducting offensive and gives PA a chance to capture any enemy territory if possible. On the defensive, PA has better chances of success. This way maybe 4-7 days at start of war are lost in this cat and mouse game. PA should be able to defend positions in mountains for next 2 weeks, the withdrawing forces joining the reinforcements which are already manning defensive positions. Three weeks would have passed by then. This is worse case scenario when PA starts the offensive and loses all gains. If FCNA starts the offensive, while another infantry Division (such as 7th Infantry Division) acts as reserve and takes up defensive positions behind FCNA, then there are chances that Pakistan can defend the upper AJK region. If 7th Infantry is standing behind 12th Infantry Division as reserve, then FCNA has to rely on GB scouts for manning defensive positions. If FCNA gets run over, then its up to the GB scouts and withdrawing FCNA forces, which could be 50% remaining of the total strength that started the offensive.

The issue is mobility again; penetrating 5-6 km inside enemy territory will take hours especially if some sort of defense infrastructure like bunkers, MG positions, mortar dig-outs are in place. Back this with artillery fire and it may take up to 10-12 hours to achieve breakthrough.

Winter is a bad option for war in mountains. It not only affects mobility, it strains lines of supply whether animal or mechanical or aerial. Animals will need double food rations, veterinary medicines and some sort of covering (clothing), which means extra weight already. Mechanical transport like jeeps, trucks etc will need to traverse through snowy, wet and slippery roads. Plus the roads will need to be kept free from enemy fire, whether light arms or artillery fire. I can tell you right now, there will be hardly any aerial flights by helis for supplies, citing bad weather conditions everyday. Night operations will become more hectic and tough, not only due to snow but also drop in temperatures. Double rations, double medicines, extra barrels for rapid fire weapons which could freeze and more supplies for keeping hard shelters warm/extra clothing and gear. The good thing is that weather conditions will affect both armies. The Army which is well prepared to handle adverse weather conditions will come on top.

Shock and awe is achieved through surprise of mobility and suppression of firepower. Both of which are hard to achieve by both armies. Moving artillery in mountains is another headache. Roads are good, be mindful that IAF will strike and damage roads, cause land slides which will take Engineers few or many hours to clear. Mules can draw artillery on dirt tracks, but that will take even longer. There will be ammunition and spares also, which will need to be transported. AD will have tube launched (Anza/Stinger) and AAA weapons (35 mm and 40 mm). Some of this equipment could be taken apart and then assembled when required to be used. Engineers will need to move own equipment to build shelters, build bunkers, repair roads, repair bridges etc.

This is why helis are needed and IA/IAF has a bigger inventory than PA/PAF. While PA uses pack howitzers, IA has got the modern M-777 light howitzers. Back in good old days, PA transported Field Gun 130mm piece by piece through Mi-17's. 130 mm is not a howitzer, PA now uses Chinese 122 mm which can achieve elevation angles required in mountains. IAF not only operates Mi-26 but also CH-47's now, both are heavy Lift helis.

The only major advantage that PA holds is that NLI and GB scouts are composed of personnel and troops from Azad Kashmir. Their bodies are suited to the weather conditions, their grooming is composed of playing in mountains as teens and they have a good sense of navigating in Mountains. I am not sure how many kashmiris from IOK join IA.

If 34th Light Infantry Division gets in action and uses Helis to deploy troops inside IOK, then FCNA automatically gets a head start and will face minimal resistance, since the brunt of IA and BSF waves will be faced by sections/platoons/companies of LCB of 34th LID. A medium transport heli can carry 10-25 troops, a light transport heli can carry 3-4 troops. We are talking about northern kashmir, so probably light transport heli (Fennec, Ecureuil), 2 of them to drop a section strength (8-10 troops) at a peak. For a platoon (25-30 troops) level, 6 light Helis will be required. A medium heli ( Z-9, AW-139, Bell-206, Mi-17, Puma) could carry and deploy more troops but its to be seen if they can achieve altitudes. Catastrophe cannot only occur if these helis are shot down by IAF or IA AD, or through accidents in weather, but it will also occur if FCNA cannot relieve the LCB troops under 12-14 hours. By that time, LCB would have faced causalities with depleting ammunition and chances of them being over run or captured are bright. This is very risky but do able if no other alternate is there. India will probably direct BSF towards these peaks and use Regular IA forces to defend and then counter attack FCNA which by that time should be starting its attack.

PAF has to play a major part; firstly achieving air superiority for a few hours till deployment by helis is completed. Then PAF is required to conduct 2-3 sortie ground strikes at the location held by enemy formation when FCNA starts its attack. This will save lives of own soldiers. Followed by Artillery strikes, enabling FCNA to move forward under cover. Remember that FCNA is just 3-Brigade strength and it has a vast area of responsibility. FCNA has to maintain its strength amidst the setbacks of sick/wounded/killed soldiers. If LCB sitting at peaks is able to stop IA from reinforcing CFL with additional troops, then LCB has completed its first major task. If furthermore LCB can start targeting roads and intersection, completely blocking movement and provide all recon reports to FCNA, then it would help PA make gains inside IOK.

The above involves different types of weaponry, different types of forces and different tactics compiled over a broad strategy to make inroads into IOK that can lead to success in Operations.
 
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@Signalian Wah bhai , Great hypothesis .. But One question here, What if our initial push turn out to be successful ?you really think we will be able to drive IA forces ( roughly 700,000 ) out of J&K with a aggressive Attack which will be limited to a certain roads and valley's ? I Saw a glimpse of AJK if I believe the Terrain is bit similar to what I sew on the other side of border meaning J&K , how we will be denying IA forces to reinforce their BSF which we presume overrun by NLI ? unless J&K people rise up, take Defensive Position , block roads , cut off communication lines , disrupt logistics , provide enemy movements , blow up bridges , I think sending Troops in would be like sending them into a suicide Mission. In 65 some of the battalions which went in J&K headed by SSG's were barely make back to Pakistan . I fear this time we might not be that luck , what do you think ?
 
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@Signalian Wah bhai , Great hypothesis .. But One question here, What if our initial push turn out to be successful ?you really think we will be able to drive IA forces ( roughly 700,000 ) out of J&K with a aggressive Attack which will be limited to a certain roads and valley's ? I Saw a glimpse of AJK if I believe the Terrain is bit similar to what I sew on the other side of border meaning J&K , how we will be denying IA forces to reinforce their BSF which we presume overrun by NLI ? unless J&K people rise up, take Defensive Position , block roads , cut off communication lines , disrupt logistics , provide enemy movements , blow up bridges , I think sending Troops in would be like sending them into a suicide Mission. In 65 some of the battalions which went in J&K headed by SSG's were barely make back to Pakistan . I fear this time we might not be that luck , what do you think ?
This scenario is on the North west of IOK (basically north of kargil, a bit south of Kargil maybe). so this is just one part of Kashmir. I have not mentioned Ops of 12 ID, 19 ID, 23 ID etc, which are deployed on southern and south western side of IOK. I also wrote about importance of heli and the role of PAF, which is crucial in mountains for movement.

The role of Kashmiris inside IOK agaisnt IA and BSF is very important as u have pointed out and I mentioned @Psychic as he has debated with me in other threads also on Kashmir issue so he must be knowing what IO-Kashmiris will be able to do if PA makes its move.
 
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In defensive role PA should dissolve and adopt more loose unit structure with guerilla tactics. Where Captains, subedars jco's and nco's have more intiative but pertaining to the general staff's greater objectives during the campaign. Kinda like what Zaid Hamid was saying (yeah he's a nutjob) but what he was saying makes sense and is a good option. US did same with JSOC in Iraq. But we need to merge JSOC Iraq example with what TTP was doing in the mountains intricate tunnels, ieds, ambushes and shoot & scoot etc.
Its best for PA to conduct offense before IA makes its move. This is not just to take war on enemy's turf, doing as much damage as possible to weaken offensive strength of the enemy, buying time to strengthen own position and defenses, force the enemy to go on defensive, maintaining choice of place of attack and luring in enemy reinforcement in this sector instead of letting enemy choose to use those forces in some other theater of war. If IA manages to break PA's offensive and chances are very bright for that, then PA forces start to deploy back to rear positions, delaying enemy advance during retreat. This just offsets IA's plans for conducting offensive and gives PA a chance to capture any enemy territory if possible. On the defensive, PA has better chances of success. This way maybe 4-7 days at start of war are lost in this cat and mouse game. PA should be able to defend positions in mountains for next 2 weeks, the withdrawing forces joining the reinforcements which are already manning defensive positions. Three weeks would have passed by then. This is worse case scenario when PA starts the offensive and loses all gains. If FCNA starts the offensive, while another infantry Division (such as 7th Infantry Division) acts as reserve and takes up defensive positions behind FCNA, then there are chances that Pakistan can defend the upper AJK region. If 7th Infantry is standing behind 12th Infantry Division as reserve, then FCNA has to rely on GB scouts for manning defensive positions. If FCNA gets run over, then its up to the GB scouts and withdrawing FCNA forces, which could be 50% remaining of the total strength that started the offensive.

The issue is mobility again; penetrating 5-6 km inside enemy territory will take hours especially if some sort of defense infrastructure like bunkers, MG positions, mortar dig-outs are in place. Back this with artillery fire and it may take up to 10-12 hours to achieve breakthrough.

Winter is a bad option for war in mountains. It not only affects mobility, it strains lines of supply whether animal or mechanical or aerial. Animals will need double food rations, veterinary medicines and some sort of covering (clothing), which means extra weight already. Mechanical transport like jeeps, trucks etc will need to traverse through snowy, wet and slippery roads. Plus the roads will need to be kept free from enemy fire, whether light arms or artillery fire. I can tell you right now, there will be hardly any aerial flights by helis for supplies, citing bad weather conditions everyday. Night operations will become more hectic and tough, not only due to snow but also drop in temperatures. Double rations, double medicines, extra barrels for rapid fire weapons which could freeze and more supplies for keeping hard shelters warm/extra clothing and gear. The good thing is that weather conditions will affect both armies. The Army which is well prepared to handle adverse weather conditions will come on top.

Shock and awe is achieved through surprise of mobility and suppression of firepower. Both of which are hard to achieve by both armies. Moving artillery in mountains is another headache. Roads are good, be mindful that IAF will strike and damage roads, cause land slides which will take Engineers few or many hours to clear. Mules can draw artillery on dirt tracks, but that will take even longer. There will be ammunition and spares also, which will need to be transported. AD will have tube launched (Anza/Stinger) and AAA weapons (35 mm and 40 mm). Some of this equipment could be taken apart and then assembled when required to be used. Engineers will need to move own equipment to build shelters, build bunkers, repair roads, repair bridges etc.

This is why helis are needed and IA/IAF has a bigger inventory than PA/PAF. While PA uses pack howitzers, IA has got the modern M-777 light howitzers. Back in good old days, PA transported Field Gun 130mm piece by piece through Mi-17's. 130 mm is not a howitzer, PA now uses Chinese 122 mm which can achieve elevation angles required in mountains. IAF not only operates Mi-26 but also CH-47's now, both are heavy Lift helis.

The only major advantage that PA holds is that NLI and GB scouts are composed of personnel and troops from Azad Kashmir. Their bodies are suited to the weather conditions, their grooming is composed of playing in mountains as teens and they have a good sense of navigating in Mountains. I am not sure how many kashmiris from IOK join IA.

If 34th Light Infantry Division gets in action and uses Helis to deploy troops inside IOK, then FCNA automatically gets a head start and will face minimal resistance, since the brunt of IA and BSF waves will be faced by sections/platoons/companies of LCB of 34th LID. A medium transport heli can carry 10-25 troops, a light transport heli can carry 3-4 troops. We are talking about northern kashmir, so probably light transport heli (Fennec, Ecureuil), 2 of them to drop a section strength (8-10 troops) at a peak. For a platoon (25-30 troops) level, 6 light Helis will be required. A medium heli ( Z-9, AW-139, Bell-206, Mi-17, Puma) could carry and deploy more troops but its to be seen if they can achieve altitudes. Catastrophe cannot only occur if these helis are shot down by IAF or IA AD, or through accidents in weather, but it will also occur if FCNA cannot relieve the LCB troops under 12-14 hours. By that time, LCB would have faced causalities with depleting ammunition and chances of them being over run or captured are bright. This is very risky but do able if no other alternate is there. India will probably direct BSF towards these peaks and use Regular IA forces to defend and then counter attack FCNA which by that time should be starting its attack.

PAF has to play a major part; firstly achieving air superiority for a few hours till deployment by helis is completed. Then PAF is required to conduct 2-3 sortie ground strikes at the location held by enemy formation when FCNA starts its attack. This will save lives of own soldiers. Followed by Artillery strikes, enabling FCNA to move forward under cover. Remember that FCNA is just 3-Brigade strength and it has a vast area of responsibility. FCNA has to maintain its strength amidst the setbacks of sick/wounded/killed soldiers. If LCB sitting at peaks is able to stop IA from reinforcing CFL with additional troops, then LCB has completed its first major task. If furthermore LCB can start targeting roads and intersection, completely blocking movement and provide all recon reports to FCNA, then it would help PA make gains inside IOK.

The above involves different types of weaponry, different types of forces and different tactics compiled over a broad strategy to make inroads into IOK that can lead to success in Operations.
 
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This scenario is on the North west of IOK (basically north of kargil, a bit south of Kargil maybe). so this is just one part of Kashmir. I have not mentioned Ops of 12 ID, 19 ID, 23 ID etc, which are deployed on southern and south western side of IOK. I also wrote about importance of heli and the role of PAF, which is crucial in mountains for movement.

The role of Kashmiris inside IOK agaisnt IA and BSF is very important as u have pointed out and I mentioned @Psychic as he has debated with me in other threads also on Kashmir issue so he must be knowing what IO-Kashmiris will be able to do if PA makes its move.

Any plans to write other Ops ? Please remember me in your tag if you do ..
 
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@Psychic

Above is a military plan related to PA offensive in IO-kashmir, can you tell how Indian suppressed Kashmiris in IOK will assist PA ?
How?

Without weapons and training, the only way they can assist is by facilitating the invading forces by providing them lodging facilities, food and shelter(esp useful for special forces). Even if weapons are provided on an emergency basis, not much can be expected from untrained people or people with rudimentary training. Maybe, the numbers of invasion troops can be swelled by the induction of local people, but when one can't be certain how they'll react to mortar or arty round (run away or hold fast) so it remains a gamble.
Furthermore, 4-5km is still the mountains, not the valley which is boiling --- the reaction of those people might be different than the reaction of the valley dwellers. We must also remember that Kashmir is not a homogeneous entity, Ladakh has never seen an uprising till now, Jammu remains pre-dominantly Sikh/Hindu region. The valley has a strong support for Pakistan today but it is much deeper than 5-6 km.
Ground needs to be prepared for that.

As we speak, there are only around 400 armed fighters inside IOK, most of whom are lightly armed, lack proper training and seem to be unfamiliar with the intricacies of guerrilla warfare bar a few top leaders like Naikoo. Indian army has more than enough manpower required to crush even a well trained guerrilla force of that number. Unless the LOC is softened and safe heavens plus volunteers provided on this side of the border to initiate a well organized uprising in IOK before we launch an actual invasion, we can only hope for food, shelter, intel and navigation. We can muster 25k-40k armed volunteers within 2-3 months who can be used in IOK as a guerrilla force (based on past estimates, we did have much more than that number of armed Mujahideen from Punjab, AJK and KPK)

In any case other than limited asymmetric warfare, the role of airforce will be the deciding factor. Whoever achieves air-supremacy is bound to win. IMO we should've spent more on PAF and less on PA
We musn't forget that AJK is our first line of defence which protects Pakistan's geographic vulnerabilities in the North; Water from there is our lifeline which is threatened over and over again by India.
 
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@Signalian do u believe the war will be limited to LOC and wont open up IB

best chance for Pakistan to win is that war remain limited to Kashmir region, Where we can concentrate our fire power and lower numbers of Troops wont matter much , One good positioned MG bunker can stop waves of Soldiers from Advancing , For India the best chance would be to Open up IB to stretch PA thin , force us to spread our forces which is 1/3rd of Indian Troops . The thinner our forces get the easier it will be for India to break through . Same Strategy was used by India in 1965, if the war remains in Kashmir region eventually PA reinforcements would reach Srinagar , and eventually some of the Kashmiri's would join in with PA to take defensive Positions , India feared that hence it opened up IB to divert PA forces from J&K to Punjab and Sindh sectors .
 
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Doubt local Kashmiris except a few would support such a move. They obviously don't like the Indian Army presence. But almost all Kashmiris belonging to the middle class have family members in Delhi, Bangalore etc. as students or working in corporate jobs. A few years ago the only Baltistani towns in India (captured in 1971) were opened up for tourism and the people are happy there. The few pockets of Pak support will not make a mass movement.
 
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How does both navies come into play in all this? Or will they just sunbath while mess is created here & there ?
 
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best chance for Pakistan to win is that war remain limited to Kashmir region, Where we can concentrate our fire power and lower numbers of Troops wont matter much , One good positioned MG bunker can stop waves of Soldiers from Advancing , For India the best chance would be to Open up IB to stretch PA thin , force us to spread our forces which is 1/3rd of Indian Troops . The thinner our forces get the easier it will be for India to break through . Same Strategy was used by India in 1965, if the war remains in Kashmir region eventually PA reinforcements would reach Srinagar , and eventually some of the Kashmiri's would join in with PA to take defensive Positions , India feared that hence it opened up IB to divert PA forces from J&K to Punjab and Sindh sectors .
Why would India limit it to Jammu and Kashmir? Full IB will be opened.
Imo air superiority is the most important aspect.
Tbh War looks a distant chance , very low for the both sides. The game of attrition will continue for both sides
 
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Its best for PA to conduct offense before IA makes its move. This is not just to take war on enemy's turf, doing as much damage as possible to weaken offensive strength of the enemy, buying time to strengthen own position and defenses, force the enemy to go on defensive, maintaining choice of place of attack and luring in enemy reinforcement in this sector instead of letting enemy choose to use those forces in some other theater of war. If IA manages to break PA's offensive and chances are very bright for that, then PA forces start to deploy back to rear positions, delaying enemy advance during retreat. This just offsets IA's plans for conducting offensive and gives PA a chance to capture any enemy territory if possible. On the defensive, PA has better chances of success. This way maybe 4-7 days at start of war are lost in this cat and mouse game. PA should be able to defend positions in mountains for next 2 weeks, the withdrawing forces joining the reinforcements which are already manning defensive positions. Three weeks would have passed by then. This is worse case scenario when PA starts the offensive and loses all gains. If FCNA starts the offensive, while another infantry Division (such as 7th Infantry Division) acts as reserve and takes up defensive positions behind FCNA, then there are chances that Pakistan can defend the upper AJK region. If 7th Infantry is standing behind 12th Infantry Division as reserve, then FCNA has to rely on GB scouts for manning defensive positions. If FCNA gets run over, then its up to the GB scouts and withdrawing FCNA forces, which could be 50% remaining of the total strength that started the offensive.

The issue is mobility again; penetrating 5-6 km inside enemy territory will take hours especially if some sort of defense infrastructure like bunkers, MG positions, mortar dig-outs are in place. Back this with artillery fire and it may take up to 10-12 hours to achieve breakthrough.

Winter is a bad option for war in mountains. It not only affects mobility, it strains lines of supply whether animal or mechanical or aerial. Animals will need double food rations, veterinary medicines and some sort of covering (clothing), which means extra weight already. Mechanical transport like jeeps, trucks etc will need to traverse through snowy, wet and slippery roads. Plus the roads will need to be kept free from enemy fire, whether light arms or artillery fire. I can tell you right now, there will be hardly any aerial flights by helis for supplies, citing bad weather conditions everyday. Night operations will become more hectic and tough, not only due to snow but also drop in temperatures. Double rations, double medicines, extra barrels for rapid fire weapons which could freeze and more supplies for keeping hard shelters warm/extra clothing and gear. The good thing is that weather conditions will affect both armies. The Army which is well prepared to handle adverse weather conditions will come on top.

Shock and awe is achieved through surprise of mobility and suppression of firepower. Both of which are hard to achieve by both armies. Moving artillery in mountains is another headache. Roads are good, be mindful that IAF will strike and damage roads, cause land slides which will take Engineers few or many hours to clear. Mules can draw artillery on dirt tracks, but that will take even longer. There will be ammunition and spares also, which will need to be transported. AD will have tube launched (Anza/Stinger) and AAA weapons (35 mm and 40 mm). Some of this equipment could be taken apart and then assembled when required to be used. Engineers will need to move own equipment to build shelters, build bunkers, repair roads, repair bridges etc.

This is why helis are needed and IA/IAF has a bigger inventory than PA/PAF. While PA uses pack howitzers, IA has got the modern M-777 light howitzers. Back in good old days, PA transported Field Gun 130mm piece by piece through Mi-17's. 130 mm is not a howitzer, PA now uses Chinese 122 mm which can achieve elevation angles required in mountains. IAF not only operates Mi-26 but also CH-47's now, both are heavy Lift helis.

The only major advantage that PA holds is that NLI and GB scouts are composed of personnel and troops from Azad Kashmir. Their bodies are suited to the weather conditions, their grooming is composed of playing in mountains as teens and they have a good sense of navigating in Mountains. I am not sure how many kashmiris from IOK join IA.

If 34th Light Infantry Division gets in action and uses Helis to deploy troops inside IOK, then FCNA automatically gets a head start and will face minimal resistance, since the brunt of IA and BSF waves will be faced by sections/platoons/companies of LCB of 34th LID. A medium transport heli can carry 10-25 troops, a light transport heli can carry 3-4 troops. We are talking about northern kashmir, so probably light transport heli (Fennec, Ecureuil), 2 of them to drop a section strength (8-10 troops) at a peak. For a platoon (25-30 troops) level, 6 light Helis will be required. A medium heli ( Z-9, AW-139, Bell-206, Mi-17, Puma) could carry and deploy more troops but its to be seen if they can achieve altitudes. Catastrophe cannot only occur if these helis are shot down by IAF or IA AD, or through accidents in weather, but it will also occur if FCNA cannot relieve the LCB troops under 12-14 hours. By that time, LCB would have faced causalities with depleting ammunition and chances of them being over run or captured are bright. This is very risky but do able if no other alternate is there. India will probably direct BSF towards these peaks and use Regular IA forces to defend and then counter attack FCNA which by that time should be starting its attack.

PAF has to play a major part; firstly achieving air superiority for a few hours till deployment by helis is completed. Then PAF is required to conduct 2-3 sortie ground strikes at the location held by enemy formation when FCNA starts its attack. This will save lives of own soldiers. Followed by Artillery strikes, enabling FCNA to move forward under cover. Remember that FCNA is just 3-Brigade strength and it has a vast area of responsibility. FCNA has to maintain its strength amidst the setbacks of sick/wounded/killed soldiers. If LCB sitting at peaks is able to stop IA from reinforcing CFL with additional troops, then LCB has completed its first major task. If furthermore LCB can start targeting roads and intersection, completely blocking movement and provide all recon reports to FCNA, then it would help PA make gains inside IOK.

The above involves different types of weaponry, different types of forces and different tactics compiled over a broad strategy to make inroads into IOK that can lead to success in Operations.

Now I am merely waiting for Indian Army's plan, non-stop articles, Indian Official's statements, no first use policy threats & Modi visiting every country out there for preparation based upon your report. You know what I mean so wait for it.

Regards,
 
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