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Pakistan may return $2b Saudi Arabian loan
Country weighs options to secure more lending to maintain $12 billion foreign exchange reserves

ISLAMABAD:


Pakistan may return $2 billion Saudi Arabian loan and is looking for various options to secure more lending aimed at retaining gross official foreign exchange reserves at their current level of over $12 billion, Ministry of Finance sources told The Express Tribune.

The second tranche of $1 billion of Saudi loan is maturing next month and there is likelihood that the government will return the money – two years after the borrowings, the sources added.

The Saudi Arabian financial assistance package, originally estimated at $6.2 billion, had helped the government of Prime Minister Imran Khan to avoid looming default on international debt obligations.

“It is a bilateral confidential matter,” said the Ministry of Finance in a terse response on Friday.
But a top government official said on condition of anonymity that there is a possibility that Pakistan will be returning the money next month.

The Express Tribune sent questions to the Ministry of Finance on Tuesday. The finance ministry had been requested to comment on whether Pakistan will payback $1 billion to Saudi Arabia next month and whether it will also return a $2 billion loan to the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Although there was hope that the political level contacts may help to convince the Gulf countries to extend these loans for another year, the chances were not high, said the Finance Ministry sources.

After coming into power, Prime Minister Imran Khan had twice flown to Saudi Arabia to secure the package, which provided space to the first-timer PTI government to negotiate a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Saudi Arabia had agreed to provide $6.2 billion worth of financial package to Pakistan for three years. This included $3 billion in cash assistance and $3.2 billion worth of annual oil and gas supply on deferred payments.

As per the agreement, the Saudi cash and oil facility was for one year with an option to roll over the amount at the end of the year for a period of three years.

Pakistan was paying 3.2% interest on the $3-billion facility, according to the information that the Ministry of Finance shared with the National Assembly. The Saudi oil facility has already been suspended while Pakistan has also paid back Saudi Arabia $1 billion out of the $3 billion in May this year.

The sources said the government was considering various options to repay the Saudi loan, which is booked on the balance sheet of the State Bank of Pakistan.

A senior Finance Ministry official said that Pakistan could get $2 billion from China, like it did last time when it paid back $1 billion to Saudi Arabia. The official did not explain whether the Chinese lending will be concessional or the commercial loans.
Chinese authorities have privately expressed reservations over slow progress on the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) but they are likely to bail out Islamabad due to the strategic nature of the relations, said the sources.

The government has also not been able to get the suspended $6 billion IMF programme restored, which is making it difficult for it to continue uninterrupted foreign inflows. The sources said if the IMF programme is not restored in near future, the World Bank inflows may start drying up.

The IMF is not bending on two conditions of introducing a mini-budget and increasing electricity tariffs, which has complicated matters for Prime Minister Imran Khan whose government is already facing criticism for constantly high inflation.

The programme loans from the other two multilateral creditors were also critical to return $10.6 billion in maturing loans in the current fiscal year, excluding the Saudi Arabian and UAE debt. Pakistan’s gross official foreign currency reserves of about $12.2 billion are largely built by taking foreign loans.

Pakistan has also utilized a $3 billion Chinese trade financing facility to cushion its reserves. The $3 billion facility is also expiring in May next year, which Pakistan has decided to request China to rollover.

As of September this year, the central bank has also borrowed $5.8 billion from commercial banks under the forward and currency swap arrangements, according to the SBP data.


Just six months ago, in February 2020 when Pakistan was implementing the IMF loan programme, the SBP’s borrowing under the swap and future contracts was $2.9 billion, including $1.6 billion in long-term contracts.

After excluding all short term liabilities, the central bank’s reserves are negative by about $10 billion.

 
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The current account is in surplus and there are no major imports in recent times due to the COVID situation also USD inflow is positive due to record remittances.

State bank should do a major open market operation and buy as many USD from the open market as it can and hopefully 1 billion won't be much of an issue. It will drive the USD exchange rate upwards in short term but it's better than taking more loans.
 
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Good move.

Trump losing presidency, watch these camel jokies of GCC lose their shite in no time. There is absolute panic now in GCC as all their deals, the Israel recognition, Iran issue, that was all done with Trump administration. That kid Kushner!
 
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Our current account position is much better now than it was at start of this govt. From record deficit toward surplus was no small feet and slowly our reserves will buildup if they keep up with economic management. Govt already arranged a substitute from world bank and ADB. Pakistan will also likely cap its borrowing from china in the backdrop of these new lending agreements.
 
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Both KSA and UAE have signaled willingness to roll over the loans. Its up to GOP to decide if it wants to accept or repay. There is no geopolitical pressure.
 
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Pakistan should throw their money to their face and cast its lot with Erdogan of Turkey. Stop treading on two boats. Imran khan should just make foreign policy change and align with new emerging order involving Turkey, Iran and China.
 
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The current account is in surplus and there are no major imports in recent times due to the COVID situation also USD inflow is positive due to record remittances.

State bank should do a major open market operation and buy as many USD from the open market as it can and hopefully 1 billion won't be much of an issue. It will drive the USD exchange rate upwards in short term but it's better than taking more loans.

you do realize that its the governments job to prop up a local currency against "hard curencies" like the USD?

if the central bank started to buy USDs off the market and flood it with pakistani currency. That would give you zimbabwe levels of hyperinflation and currency collapse ..
 
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if the central bank started to buy USDs off the market and flood it with pakistani currency. That would give you zimbabwe levels of hyperinflation and currency collapse ..

Your statement is correct in normal circumstances. But as it is current account is surplus and no major import orders by private sector sue to covid. recently passed strict money laundering laws are also discouraging the hoarding of USD by investors.

There is an oversupply of USD in the open market at the moment. It's Better for the state bank to soak it up else it will be smuggled to Afghanistan.
 
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Your statement is correct in normal circumstances. But as it is current account is surplus and no major import orders by private sector sue to covid. recently passed strict money laundering laws are also discouraging the hoarding of USD by investors.

There is an oversupply of USD in the open market at the moment. It's Better for the state bank to soak it up else it will be smuggled to Afghanistan.
Pakistan should maintain currency at around 175 pkr to dollar. And soak up USD and raise it to somewhere near $25 billion. Once you have 6 months worth import cover. IMF is no longer needed. World bank and ADB development assistance will flow uninterrupted.

Pakistan can then grow at over 5 percent in stable macroeconomic conditions. Allowing PKR to raise at this juncture atleast is non sensical to me. India had been maintaining its currency at 73-75 band, even as its foreign reserves are up $100 billion since Covid. I think Pakistan should follow similar approach for now. Pakistan could have easily added $4-5 billion had it soaked up dollars from the market.

@zartosht Government's job is maintain currency at a stable rate based on the needs of the economy. It has to go for inflation targeting. Pakistan economy got adjusted to 170 to dollar over the year. Why rock the boat again?
 
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Saudi Arabia is one lucky country.
Please stop hurting sentiments of the masses.
May i ask, what will be official figure of forex reserves in state bank after this return and what will be true figure?
 
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I hope now people will realize the importance of CAD and external borrowings, and it's implication on autonomy. Especially those people who argued for 'compromised GDP growth on imports' against 'living within our means'.
The impact will be subtle given our macroeconomic situation at present.
 
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Please stop hurting sentiments of the masses.
May i ask, what will be official figure of forex reserves in state bank after this return and what will be true figure?

Not sure but this will improve borrowing credibility and help Pakistan become self sufficient and financially independent.

CPEC is integral to Vision 2030.
 
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