Pakistan Elections 2018 Predictions; Nawaz Sharif's Future

[RiazHaq]

http://www.riazhaq.com/2018/07/pakistan-elections-2018-predictions.html

What will be the impact of tragic terror attacks with mass casualties on Pakistan's July 25, 2018 general elections? How does the current situation compare with the situation in 2013 elections? Will the elections proceed as scheduled?


Pakistan Elections 2018 Forecast by Intermarket and Exotix Investment Firms

Which party is likely to get the most votes and parliamentary seats in Pakistan's July 25, 2018 general elections? Will one party get a clear majority? Who will form the new government? Is PTI Chief Imran Khan likely to be the next prime minister of Pakistan? Will it be a coalition government? How can a weak coalition government implement a radical reform agenda proposed by Imran Khan?

Why did former prime minister of Pakistan Mr. Nawaz Sharif, convicted recently by a Pakistani court on charges of having assets beyond income, come back to Lahore to face certain arrest? What is his strategy? What is Nawaz Sharif's future in Pakistani politics after his conviction and arrest? How will PMLN fare in 2018 and future elections? Will the disgraced Sharif be able to rehabilitate himself and reclaim the mantle of national leadership? Will future judges of Pakistan Supreme Court set aide his conviction to clear the way for him to become Pakistan's prime minister for the fourth time?

Viewpoint From Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses these questions with panelists Misbah Azam and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

Here's Urdu version streamed live on Facebook:

Related Links:

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South Asia Investor Review

Nawaz Sharif's Report Card 2013-18

CPEC Transforming Pakistan's Least Developed Regions

Pakistan: The Other 99% of the Pakistan Story

How Pakistan's Corrupt Elite Siphon Off Public Funds

Bumper Crops and Soaring Credit Drive Tractor Sales

Panama Leaks

How West Enables Corruption in Developing Countries

Declining Terror Toll in Pakistan

Riaz Haq's YouTube Channel

http://www.riazhaq.com/2018/07/pakistan-elections-2018-predictions.html

 

[Imad.Khan]

This scenario is also very likely, but depends on how many seats PTI and PMLN get.

PMLN + PPP + MMA + MQM-P + ANP + PkMAP + Independents (including Nisar group)

 

[expert]

PML and PPP will team up to "save democracy." They've already hinted at that. PML and PPP are no longer a threat to each other. PTI is a threat to both.

 

[AUz]

PML(n) and PPP along with other status quo parties will outflank PTI and form govt. Their supporters will cheer this move as well—to “save democracy” and defeat Army oppression.

Both parties have successfully developed this “aura” of unfairness at the hands of army. I don’t see PTI coming to power and implementing the necessary reforms to take Pakistan to the next level. Sorry to say....

 

[Imad.Khan]

PML(n) and PPP along with other status quo parties will outflank PTI and form govt. Their supporters will cheer this move as well—to “save democracy” and defeat Army oppression.

Both parties have successfully developed this “aura” of unfairness at the hands of army. I don’t see PTI coming to power and implementing the necessary reforms to take Pakistan to the next level. Sorry to say....

Don't forget that they will also have support from MMA and PkMAP, so yeh you might be right with your conclusion

 

[Zibago]

Practical solution to all our problems

https://twitter.com/x/status/1018706166036271104

@django @PakSword @Moonlight @RiazHaq @BHarwana

 

[PakSword]

This scenario is also very likely, but depends on how many seats PTI and PMLN get.

PMLN + PPP + MMA + MQM-P + ANP + PkMAP + Independents (including Nisar group)

It will be a miracle if PPP makes government in Sindh this time. GDA will make government these..

Riaz Haq Sahib have forgotten to mention GDA in his analysis.. GDA will form an alliance with PTI..

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

Can somebody break this 90 seats figure of PTI ? need it for my knowledge

It will be a miracle if PPP makes government in Sindh this time. GDA will make government these..

Riaz Haq Sahib have forgotten to mention GDA in his analysis.. GDA will form an alliance with PTI..

GDA/PML-Q/Awami Muslim league (Sheikh Raheed)/BNP is included in that 'Others'

Even with 142 seats, PTI is likely to make the govt. Though opposition will be really strong but establishment will back PTI led Govt so odds are in favor of Imran Khan at end of the day.

 

[PakSword]

Can somebody break this 90 seats figure of PTI ? need it for my knowledge



GDA/PML-Q/Awami Muslim league (Sheikh Raheed)/BNP is included in that 'Others'

Even with 142 seats, PTI is likely to make the govt. Though opposition will be really strong but establishment will back PTI led Govt so odds are in favor of Imran Khan at end of the day.

GDA will take many more seats in Sindh. PPP is losing in Sindh believe me.. GDA/ PTI/ PSP combines will beat PPP/ MQM-P in numbers in Sindh.. The first name of the next CM Sindh is Sardar and the last name is Meher..

(Don't tell anyone.. it's a secret)

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

GDA will take many more seats in Sindh. PPP is losing in Sindh believe me.. GDA/ PTI/ PSP combines will beat PPP/ MQM-P in numbers in Sindh.. The first name of the next CM Sindh is Sardar and the last name is Meher..

(Don't tell anyone.. it's a secret)

MQM-P will make an alliance with GDA and PTI as well. I think GDA vote bank is no more than 7-8 seats. They have fielded more candidates in provincial assembly than NA.

Btw can you please come up with a break of potential 90 seats for PTI ? i need to know ....(though hoping for 100 but looks difficult)

 

[IceCold]

PML(n) and PPP along with other status quo parties will outflank PTI and form govt. Their supporters will cheer this move as well—to “save democracy” and defeat Army oppression.

Both parties have successfully developed this “aura” of unfairness at the hands of army. I don’t see PTI coming to power and implementing the necessary reforms to take Pakistan to the next level. Sorry to say....

This is a possibility but with Zardari cases looming and threats of cases on Shahbaz sharif, such an alliance will work temporarily but i highly doubt if its going to last whole 5 years. Not to mention their internal differences. For example Nisar might find a way to again work with PMLN however i doubt if Nisar will be able to work with PPP and vice verse.
So even if such a government is formed it will be very weak and establishment will continue to manipulate it. However PTI will sadly not be able to play a bigger role as one excepts them too.

 

[Imad.Khan]

It will be a miracle if PPP makes government in Sindh this time. GDA will make government these..

Riaz Haq Sahib have forgotten to mention GDA in his analysis.. GDA will form an alliance with PTI..

Sorry mate but i dont think GDA will make a big dent to PPP. Actually i heard that they are thinking of forming an alliance with PPP.

 

[expert]

MQM-P will make an alliance with GDA and PTI as well. I think GDA vote bank is no more than 7-8 seats. They have fielded more candidates in provincial assembly than NA.

Btw can you please come up with a break of potential 90 seats for PTI ? i need to know ....(though hoping for 100 but looks difficult)

PTI is hoping for 30 in KPK, 60 in Punjab and 5-10 in Sindh.

This is a possibility but with Zardari cases looming and threats of cases on Shahbaz sharif, such an alliance will work temporarily but i highly doubt if its going to last whole 5 years. Not to mention their internal differences. For example Nisar might find a way to again work with PMLN however i doubt if Nisar will be able to work with PPP and vice verse.
So even if such a government is formed it will be very weak and establishment will continue to manipulate it. However PTI will sadly not be able to play a bigger role as one excepts them too.

PML PPP will form a government but the government will collapse once Zardari goes to jail. PTI will have a better chance then. People will realize PML and PPP is one.

 

[Imad.Khan]

PTI is hoping for 30 in KPK, 60 in Punjab and 5-10 in Sindh.



PML PPP will form a government but the government will collapse once Zardari goes to jail. PTI will have a better chance then. People will realize PML and PPP is one.

I have a similar feeling about the future, if PTI gets less than 120 seats than we will see PMLN, PPP and mulla diesal and Achakzai will form govt.

People have not paid attention to hints that SS has been throwing about a National govt. Which basically means PMLN from punjab, PPP from Sindh, MMA & ANP & PkMAP from kpk and balochistan and maybe even MQM from Karachi.

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

PTI is hoping for 30 in KPK, 60 in Punjab and 5-10 in Sindh.

You forget Jamalis and Rind of Baluchistan, together they have 3-4 seats for sure (electable). However, 5-10 seats from Sindh is very optimistic possibility. IK has neglected Karachi all together when there are seats here to be taken. Grabbing 60 from Punjab will be nothing less than a miracle. Gujranwala, Lahore, Sialkot, Faisalabad, Sarghoda were nearly clean swept by PMLN last time around. Let's see how much electables policy works for PTI this time around.

I have a similar feeling about the future, if PTI gets less than 120 seats than we will see PMLN, PPP and mulla diesal and Achakzai will form govt.

People have not paid attention to hints that SS has been throwing about a National govt. Which basically means PMLN from punjab, PPP from Sindh, MMA & ANP & PkMAP from kpk and balochistan and maybe even MQM from Karachi.

That's there ONLY possibility to form a Govt else pmln are not touching 100 on it own. PTI with even 100 NA seats (though i am not sure about it) will do the job since establishment support will be the key in next 5 years time. Infact after a defeat, I am seeing forward block in PML-N.