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Pakistan and its debt bomb

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From 1947 to 2008: It took us 61 years to accumulate total public debt of Rs6,000 billion. In 1971, every man, woman and child in this country was indebted to the tune of Rs500. In 2008 – when the PPP took over the government – every man, woman and child in this country was indebted to the tune of Rs36,000. We went from Rs500 per capita debt in 1971 to Rs36,000 in 2008.

2008-2013: It took the PPP a mere five years to take us from Rs6,000 billion to Rs16,000 billion. The PPP took us from Rs36,000 per capita debt to Rs88,000 per capita debt in a mere five years.

2013-2018: It took the PML-N a mere five years to take us from Rs16,000 billion to Rs30,000 billion. The PML-N took us from Rs88,000 of per capita debt to Rs144,000 of per capita debt in a mere 5 years. Wait, the best is yet to come.

2018-2020: It has taken the PTI less than two years to take us from Rs30,000 billion to Rs43,000 billion. Imagine, the PTI has taken us from Rs144,000 of per capita debt to Rs195,000 of per capita debt in less than two years. Lo and behold, the Rs43,000 billion public debt does not include the exploding ‘circular debt’ which on its own stands at Rs2,000 billion.

For the record, the PPP borrowed an average of Rs166 billion a month every month of its five-year tenure. The PML-N borrowed an average of Rs235 billion a month every month of its five-year tenure. Please welcome the PTI which has so far been borrowing an average of Rs540 billion a month every month of its 22-month tenure.

The PPP in its five-year term borrowed 23 percent of our total debt outstanding. The PML-N in its five-year term borrowed 33 percent of our total debt outstanding. Lo and behold, the PTI has already borrowed 30 percent of our total debt over the past 22 months. As a percentage of GDP, our debt has gone up from 86 percent in 2018 to 98 percent.

Didn't the PTI establish a ‘Debt Inquiry Commission’ to investigate the increase in public debt from Rs6,000 billion to Rs30,000 billion over a 10-year span (ruled over by the PPP and the PML-N). Who will now investigate the Rs13,000 billion worth of additional debt that has been taken on by the PTI government over in just 22 months?

Where are all these billions and trillions going? Well, the PTI borrowed a colossal Rs7 trillion just to finance its budget deficits. Yes, there’s a bloodbath going on at our Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs) where losses are accumulating like never before in our history. For the record, PSEs have added Rs1.5 trillion to their existing debt of Rs1.4 trillion (when the PTI took over). Imagine: the PM's Inspection Commission “has found almost $2 billion worth of losses annually in the natural gas supply chain…”

What’s the way out? The only way out is reforms but anyone who shows even an intent of reforming the government is asked to leave the government. To be certain, public debt is now growing faster than at any time in our 73-year financial history.



The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.



Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com Twitter: @saleemfarrukh


https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/669034-debt-burden
 
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From 1947 to 2008: It took us 61 years to accumulate total public debt of Rs6,000 billion. In 1971, every man, woman and child in this country was indebted to the tune of Rs500. In 2008 – when the PPP took over the government – every man, woman and child in this country was indebted to the tune of Rs36,000. We went from Rs500 per capita debt in 1971 to Rs36,000 in 2008.

2008-2013: It took the PPP a mere five years to take us from Rs6,000 billion to Rs16,000 billion. The PPP took us from Rs36,000 per capita debt to Rs88,000 per capita debt in a mere five years.

2013-2018: It took the PML-N a mere five years to take us from Rs16,000 billion to Rs30,000 billion. The PML-N took us from Rs88,000 of per capita debt to Rs144,000 of per capita debt in a mere 5 years. Wait, the best is yet to come.

2018-2020: It has taken the PTI less than two years to take us from Rs30,000 billion to Rs43,000 billion. Imagine, the PTI has taken us from Rs144,000 of per capita debt to Rs195,000 of per capita debt in less than two years. Lo and behold, the Rs43,000 billion public debt does not include the exploding ‘circular debt’ which on its own stands at Rs2,000 billion.

For the record, the PPP borrowed an average of Rs166 billion a month every month of its five-year tenure. The PML-N borrowed an average of Rs235 billion a month every month of its five-year tenure. Please welcome the PTI which has so far been borrowing an average of Rs540 billion a month every month of its 22-month tenure.

The PPP in its five-year term borrowed 23 percent of our total debt outstanding. The PML-N in its five-year term borrowed 33 percent of our total debt outstanding. Lo and behold, the PTI has already borrowed 30 percent of our total debt over the past 22 months. As a percentage of GDP, our debt has gone up from 86 percent in 2018 to 98 percent.

Didn't the PTI establish a ‘Debt Inquiry Commission’ to investigate the increase in public debt from Rs6,000 billion to Rs30,000 billion over a 10-year span (ruled over by the PPP and the PML-N). Who will now investigate the Rs13,000 billion worth of additional debt that has been taken on by the PTI government over in just 22 months?

Where are all these billions and trillions going? Well, the PTI borrowed a colossal Rs7 trillion just to finance its budget deficits. Yes, there’s a bloodbath going on at our Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs) where losses are accumulating like never before in our history. For the record, PSEs have added Rs1.5 trillion to their existing debt of Rs1.4 trillion (when the PTI took over). Imagine: the PM's Inspection Commission “has found almost $2 billion worth of losses annually in the natural gas supply chain…”

What’s the way out? The only way out is reforms but anyone who shows even an intent of reforming the government is asked to leave the government. To be certain, public debt is now growing faster than at any time in our 73-year financial history.



The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.



Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com Twitter: @saleemfarrukh


https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/669034-debt-burden

The writer also needs to keep the value of rupee in view as well.....what its value was 70 years ago and what it is now....merely numbers can be misleading at times.
 
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The writer also needs to keep the value of rupee in view as well.....what its value was 70 years ago and what it is now....merely numbers can be misleading at times.


yes , PK , correct

yet this article talks specifically about government debt aka govt borrowing from local and intl financiers to run its operations

like,

salaries, pensions , development works , day to day affairs etcetra

in a nutshell, the govt is spending 'more' vs 'producing' .

the govt leech depts like PIA, steel mill, SNGP etc are under loss and being financed via debt .



this 'debt clock' is a ticking time bomb


currency devaluation is another collateral damage when central bank has to 'print' more money to finance govt debt . ultimately, the more money supply, the more devaluation

-------

vicious circle

--------
 
.
yes , PK , correct

yet this article talks specifically about government debt aka govt borrowing from local and intl financiers to run its operations

like,

salaries, pensions , development works , day to day affairs etcetra

in a nutshell, the govt is spending 'more' vs 'producing' .

the govt leech depts like PIA, steel mill, SNGP etc are under loss and being financed via debt .



this 'debt clock' is a ticking time bomb


currency devaluation is another collateral damage when central bank has to 'print' more money to finance govt debt . ultimately, the more money supply, the more devaluation

-------

vicious circle

--------

yes. But then this should have foreseen.

Back in 50s, 60s etc, our needs were not that much, our population wasnt that much.

Now it takes a lot to feed so many people, to feed a nuclear power, defence spending etc....

Today, its almost the same industrial and other bases of 50s which are trying to sustain a population of many times its size of 50s.
 
.
From 1947 to 2008: It took us 61 years to accumulate total public debt of Rs6,000 billion. In 1971, every man, woman and child in this country was indebted to the tune of Rs500. In 2008 – when the PPP took over the government – every man, woman and child in this country was indebted to the tune of Rs36,000. We went from Rs500 per capita debt in 1971 to Rs36,000 in 2008.

2008-2013: It took the PPP a mere five years to take us from Rs6,000 billion to Rs16,000 billion. The PPP took us from Rs36,000 per capita debt to Rs88,000 per capita debt in a mere five years.

2013-2018: It took the PML-N a mere five years to take us from Rs16,000 billion to Rs30,000 billion. The PML-N took us from Rs88,000 of per capita debt to Rs144,000 of per capita debt in a mere 5 years. Wait, the best is yet to come.

2018-2020: It has taken the PTI less than two years to take us from Rs30,000 billion to Rs43,000 billion. Imagine, the PTI has taken us from Rs144,000 of per capita debt to Rs195,000 of per capita debt in less than two years. Lo and behold, the Rs43,000 billion public debt does not include the exploding ‘circular debt’ which on its own stands at Rs2,000 billion.

For the record, the PPP borrowed an average of Rs166 billion a month every month of its five-year tenure. The PML-N borrowed an average of Rs235 billion a month every month of its five-year tenure. Please welcome the PTI which has so far been borrowing an average of Rs540 billion a month every month of its 22-month tenure.

The PPP in its five-year term borrowed 23 percent of our total debt outstanding. The PML-N in its five-year term borrowed 33 percent of our total debt outstanding. Lo and behold, the PTI has already borrowed 30 percent of our total debt over the past 22 months. As a percentage of GDP, our debt has gone up from 86 percent in 2018 to 98 percent.

Didn't the PTI establish a ‘Debt Inquiry Commission’ to investigate the increase in public debt from Rs6,000 billion to Rs30,000 billion over a 10-year span (ruled over by the PPP and the PML-N). Who will now investigate the Rs13,000 billion worth of additional debt that has been taken on by the PTI government over in just 22 months?

Where are all these billions and trillions going? Well, the PTI borrowed a colossal Rs7 trillion just to finance its budget deficits. Yes, there’s a bloodbath going on at our Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs) where losses are accumulating like never before in our history. For the record, PSEs have added Rs1.5 trillion to their existing debt of Rs1.4 trillion (when the PTI took over). Imagine: the PM's Inspection Commission “has found almost $2 billion worth of losses annually in the natural gas supply chain…”

What’s the way out? The only way out is reforms but anyone who shows even an intent of reforming the government is asked to leave the government. To be certain, public debt is now growing faster than at any time in our 73-year financial history.



The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.



Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com Twitter: @saleemfarrukh


https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/669034-debt-burden

This article made my flesh creep. It really isn't relevant that it is about Pakistan, and I am not supposed to feel unhappy at this situation. This kind of debt trap is a really dangerous state of affairs, not just for Pakistan, but for all her neighbours as well. I cannot help thinking about Weimar Germany and the consequences of hyperinflation; economics makes for bad politics.
 
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The writer also needs to keep the value of rupee in view as well.....what its value was 70 years ago and what it is now....merely numbers can be misleading at times.
The simplest and easiest away to look at debt is in gdp to debt ratio..

the burden can be looked at revenue to debt servicing

lastly its important to not group local debt with foreign debt

Pakistan debt to gdp ratio was around 50% in 2008 (90% in 1998) that has now increased to 80% and is projected to start dropping after 2021, if discipline is maintianed....

so while we are at the cusp of debt bomb we can still get out of it..

however, i expect us going back to debt accumulation soon, as govt doesn't want to balance it books..this has been the trend in previous govts

yes , PK , correct

yet this article talks specifically about government debt aka govt borrowing from local and intl financiers to run its operations

like,

salaries, pensions , development works , day to day affairs etcetra

in a nutshell, the govt is spending 'more' vs 'producing' .

the govt leech depts like PIA, steel mill, SNGP etc are under loss and being financed via debt .



this 'debt clock' is a ticking time bomb


currency devaluation is another collateral damage when central bank has to 'print' more money to finance govt debt . ultimately, the more money supply, the more devaluation

-------

vicious circle

--------
the solution is easy don't print money
before covid-19 state bank had no printed any money for 2019-2020 but of course that was under IMF
 
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This article made my flesh creep. It really isn't relevant that it is about Pakistan, and I am not supposed to feel unhappy at this situation. This kind of debt trap is a really dangerous state of affairs, not just for Pakistan, but for all her neighbours as well. I cannot help thinking about Weimar Germany and the consequences of hyperinflation; economics makes for bad politics.
Yeah that's why many Pakistanis keep banging their heads against the wall with frustration...
...to make matters worse not only are we cursed with these slimy corrupt leaders...but even the citizens can't seem to band together to fix the problem(as in oust the corrupt and bring them to justice). U will see many die hard supporters of PPP, PML-N, MQM, PTI, etc. To them...their respective party and their respective leaders can do no wrong. If the ppl could unite...and hold mass protests...it would force whoever is in charge to go after the looted money. That is just among one of the many steps...which can materialize...
..all that's needed is for the ppl to put the country before anything else...but apparently that's a tall order.
 
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Yeah that's why many Pakistanis keep banging their heads against the wall with frustration...
...to make matters worse not only are we cursed with these slimy corrupt leaders...but even the citizens can't seem to band together to fix the problem(as in oust the corrupt and bring them to justice). U will see many die hard supporters of PPP, PML-N, MQM, PTI, etc. To them...their respective party and their respective leaders can do no wrong. If the ppl could unite...and hold mass protests...it would force whoever is in charge to go after the looted money. That is just among one of the many steps...which can materialize...
..all that's needed is for the ppl to put the country before anything else...but apparently that's a tall order.

I think that ship has sailed.At best, in both countries,the effort may at best be to prevent further looting in future.
 
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I think that ship has sailed.At best, in both countries,the effort may at best be to prevent further looting in future.
That ship is theoretically still there. Mass protests of millions demanding money be brought back...would force any prime minister of any party to act on it.
 
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That ship is theoretically still there. Mass protests of millions demanding money be brought back...would force any prime minister of any party to act on it.

Good luck to you. Modi_of_the_56"_chest once calculated (at election time, natch) that each Indian would get 15,00,000 (1.5 million rupees) in his or her account if all the looted money was brought back.

I'm still waiting.

The ministers have made a hundred times that amount - each - in the same time that I've been waiting.
 
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Articles like this make my blood pressure go up
More than 70% of Pakistan's annual budget goes to the defence sector and for paying debt. I think Pakistan's defence expenditure should be reduced into half and this money should be investee elsewhere.
 
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