INDUSTRY
Could Malaysian Interest in JF-17 Signal Export Sales for Pakistan?
By Usman Ansari
Aamir Qureshi/AFP via Getty Images
A Pakistani JF-17 Thunder performs on Sept. 6 during celebrations to mark the country's Defense Day in Islamabad.
ISLAMABAD — Malaysia is considering the JF-17 Thunder aircraft as an option for its air force modernization program. However, despite analysts saying the aircraft is well suited to Malaysia's requirements, it's unclear whether the country will actually buy the Sino-Pakistan jet.
The uncertainty is especially so when considering entrenched opposition from other suppliers already well established in this area of defense sales and machinations by Pakistan's arch-rival India.
Malaysian interest in the JF-17 was signaled by its High Commissioner to Pakistan Dr. Hasrul Sani, who according to the Associated Press of Pakistan (APP), discussed the fighter against the backdrop of boosting the bilateral relationship in general.
Malay-Pakistani relations are wide-ranging, but Pakistani defense equipment sales to Malaysia have halted at anti-tank and anti-aircraft missile systems.
However, Kaiser Tufail, analyst, and former air force pilot, said he thinks consideration for the JF-17 may move to a higher level.
"I think the Malaysians might be genuinely interested because Pakistan has a respectable defense industry, with the products being considerably cheaper compared to the West due to cheap labor," he said.
"These products have been amply proven in the hands of very professional armed forces. These are reasons enough for many developing countries to look for defense hardware from Pakistan," he added.
Malaysia has long indicated a desire to replace its remaining US supplied F-5E/F fighter aircraft, and the MiG-29s it acquired from Russia in the 1990s. This may result in an order for 36-40 aircraft, according to information available on the program.
Though the JF-17 appears to be very well suited to Malaysia's requirements and would complement the heavier Su-30MKM Flanker fighters in service, Malaysian sources indicate privately that the JF-17 may face an uphill battle because European and US fighters already stated as being under consideration.
However, Brian Cloughley, analyst and former Australian defense attache to Islamabad, said he also believes the Malaysian interest to be genuine, but cautions there is more to consider.
"Heads of diplomatic missions don't usually say things publicly that aren't accurate," he said. "So there is probably something in this, in that interest appears to have been expressed, but the devil is as always in the detail, and there will have to be agreement by Beijing to any movement towards a deal."
Coughley added: "If that is arranged it will be behind well-closed doors and nobody will know what the [Chinese] terms are."
News of Malaysian consideration of the JF-17 comes against the backdrop of renewed Egyptian interest in the aircraf and reports of interest from Morocco and Sri Lanka. After years of efforts, Tufail said he believes the JF-17 is on the cusp of achieving export sales.
"I think 2016 is going to see at least three export orders, as the deals are in the final stages", he said.
Though the JF-17 "stands a fairly good chance," Tufail highlighted "the Indians are certain to field the Tejas in the international market in the coming months," in reference to India's own lightweight fighter.
"The marketing tussle is expected to be interesting."
Morocco is reported to have requested that the JF-17 participate in the Rabat Air Show in 2016 amid local speculation the type is being considered to replace the F-5E Tiger II fighters in Moroccan service.
Morocco has already purchased the VT-1A tank, which is a Chinese-produced version of the Pakistani Al-Khalid; therefore, analysts are confident the JF-17 has a good chance based on the existing defense relationship.
Sri Lanka, on the other hand, has been speculated as a JF-17 customer for a number of years, though no confirmation has emerged despite numerous inquiries by Defense News. Pakistani officials said they do not comment on such deals before they have been signed as a matter of policy.
A JF-17 sale to Sri Lanka may not be so easy, however.
News reports from Sri Lanka indicate the interest is genuine, but it has run into ferocious Indian opposition. New Delhi demanded the deal be canceled and any alternative to be purchased instead, and at Indian expense, if need be.
Other reports stated India has offered the Tejas as an alternative.
"The Indians are coming on strong in this," said Cloughley. "They will do everything they can to disrupt Pakistan-[Sri Lankan] military cooperation of any sort.
He cited domestic India considerations in respect to the Indian state of Tamil Nadu "because it's quite important vote-wise" as a major driving force behind this opposition.
Tufail, however, points to a rather more base reason for the India opposition: "[India] has no reason to oppose Sri Lanka for a JF-17 bid, except suffering from a 'sour grapes' syndrome."
Nevertheless, Cloughley said a JF-17 sale to Sri Lanka may not transpire.
"The feeling in Colombo is one of resentment, but I think the Indians' bullying may well work."
Copyright Gannett 2015
