Tipu7
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Why Pakistan is important for Russia now?
I am creating this thread to summarize all reasons behind building up relation of Pakistan and Russia, and hope it will answer all Indian folks here who frequently ask what Pakistan offer to Russia?
I will describe all the reasons and actions which forced Russia to come closer to Pakistan who was its brutal rival few decades ago. Russian KGB was involved in separation of Western Pakistan and similarly Pakistani ISI was responsible for breakdown of Soviet Union and liberation of new states in Europe and Central Asia.
1: Indian turn towards west:
Russia and India are old friends and enjoyed deep relations on political, social, economic and particularly defense grounds. India was major hub of Soviet weaponry and this trend continued even after collapse of Soviet Union. Russia, unlike past in no longer economic giant and suffer from poor economy due to heavy sanctions placed by EU and USA. One of its major sources of income is its market of weapon systems. India recently showed a twist in its defense policies and preferred European and US weapon systems instead of Russian one. Selections of Rafale over Mig35, Chinook over Mi26, AH64D over Mi28N, Spike missiles over Russian ATGM counterpart are major examples. This sudden twist was surprising as well as disappointing for Russians. Although India still operates its entire fleet of Armor and navy based upon Russian systems, but this trend may (or may not) also change in future if India went for Western platform for its future tanks and inducted western subs instead of Russian one.
2: Growing Pak-China influence:
Pakistan, though suffered from terrorism for more than a decade but now it is showing signs of recovery. Economy of Pakistan is growing, situation of law and order is improving day by day also not to mention political stability thanks to recent measure taken by COAS. Operations in Waziristan and Karachi helped country to stand on its feet again and return back to action. Recently China and Pakistan relations covered a mile stone in the form of CPEC project. China will invest 46 billion$ in Pakistan markets and help to solve the energy crisis. But most important factor is Gwadar port which is taking shape thanks to CPEC project. Gwadar, deepest sea port in World is located at key strategic point and is fully capable to become hub of sea trade. China instead of coving long distance across sea in hostile waters of West Sea, will prefer to travel some 1000 miles through Pakistan. This will save time, money on one side and offer security and prevention of naval blockage in case of hostility with Japan, South Korea or Taiwan in future on other side. Chinese economy stands on its trade. And it cannot afford the blockage of its key sea routes. Gwadar provides China perfect alternative.
Russia also considers Gwadar great opportunity for same reasons. Russia need effective and secure access to Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea. And Gwadar is shortest route to justify that. If Russia practically becomes part of CPEC by linking Kashgar through road or rail, it will enjoy same benefits as China. This is the only opportunity which Pakistan can provide, not India.
3: Possible transformation of Gwadar port into naval base:
India fears that once Gwadar port become operational it will no longer work as trade route only, but will become a key port for People Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to operate. It is natural for Pakistan navy to use Gwadar for military purpose but it is believed and ‘’feared’’ by some that China will place its long range surface sea vessels or nuclear subs to protect its interests in sea. Indian navy right now is most dominant in Indian ocean. Heavy presence of Chinese navy plus Pakistan navy will completely nullify its dominance in region and it will no longer be possible for Indian navy to cause Naval blockage of Pakistan in case of any major future conflict. Russia just like previous case can enjoy same benefits. Although they got strong allied navy in region i.e Indian navy, but it is possible that Indian navy will turn towards West and Americans just like their Army and Air force. Recent agreements of India and USA to jointly produce air craft carrier is most prominent example. Russia will like to make its own presence in region instead of relying on Allied countries inorder to deter US navy. Its matter of time and opportunity when Russians will take this decision, however its opposite case cannot be ruled out.
4: Development of Influence in Afghanistan:
Afghanistan after with drawl of NATO forces is still in state of war. Afghan Taliban under the command of new leader has started to show muscles and it is very clear that Afghan armed forces lack both capability and time to counter them. In the meantime negotiations between Afghan government and Taliban are going on and Pakistan is guest of these games. It is not in India interest that Pakistan play decisive role in Afghanistan. It will simple ruin its efforts of past decade to engage proxies in Pakistan. India keen to use Afghanistan as second front and it is arming afghan army by indigenous weapons and also contributing in the field of intelligence. Pakistan on the other hand wants Afghanistan on its side inorder to secure its back in case of any conflict with India. But bonus point for Pakistan is that unlike past, Iran and Pakistan now have very common interests in Afghanistan. i.e to develop peace in region and make both Taliban and Afghan forces to counter ISIS instead of fighting with each other. Pakistan won the side of Iran (Indian ally) by taking a strong decision of avoiding any involvement in Yemen conflict. Iran and China both are supporting Pakistani efforts in Afghanistan and in near future if they succeed, Afghanistan and Iran may form collective front along with Pakistan and China to full fill their interest. Russia and China share common enemies (most of). And they know that none of them alone can counter NATO dominance in any part of Word. To secure their existence and future both giants are willing to work together on political, social, economical, defense and science and tech grounds. China involvement automatically brings Russia involvement as they share most of common interests in South Asia and Middle East without any intersection. Russia will be looking forward to join alliance of China, Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan if it ever came to existence. India hostility towards China and Pakistan as well as its different interests in Iran and Afghanistan put it out of table.
5: Defense market in Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan:
Russia sees a huge market in South Asia for selling its arms. Instead of India, Russia will look forward toward three Muslim countries in region to become market for its defense equipment.
Pakistan several defense projects are directly or indirectly related to Russian tech. Even most of Chinese weapon systems operational in Pakistan have Russian origin or components. Russia provided Pakistan RD93 engines via China inorder to develop complete fleet of Jf17 Blk1 air craft. It may look forward to offer new engines like derivatives of AL31 to Pakistan directly for future blocks of Thunder aircraft. Despite of this, Russia will provide Pakistan four Mi35 Hind Gunship helicopter as initial batch. It has also offered Pakistan Mig29, Buk, Tor anti air system, Panstsir S1 and small arms to replace old gadgetry of Pak army. News for deal of most developed Russian flanker Su35S is also in air.
This is just a beginning, in future Russia is interested to work in civil sector too (gas pipe line).
Iran although still embargoed suffered from shortage of state of art and modern weaponry. Despite of Iran self-reliance on reverse engineering old weapon systems helped it to maintain its presence but it clearly lags behind Arab states in the field of modern weapons. Once sanctions are lift, Iran will become purchaser of weapons and of course West and USA will not offer Iran any weaponry. It will be Russia, China, India and Pakistan which will compete with each other to fill up that vacuum. Very likely Iran will bend toward Pak China pool instead of Indian one, and Russia knows that very well. Russia want to grow influence in Iran and Afghanistan……… and for that Pakistan is key…………..!!!
I am creating this thread to summarize all reasons behind building up relation of Pakistan and Russia, and hope it will answer all Indian folks here who frequently ask what Pakistan offer to Russia?
I will describe all the reasons and actions which forced Russia to come closer to Pakistan who was its brutal rival few decades ago. Russian KGB was involved in separation of Western Pakistan and similarly Pakistani ISI was responsible for breakdown of Soviet Union and liberation of new states in Europe and Central Asia.
1: Indian turn towards west:
Russia and India are old friends and enjoyed deep relations on political, social, economic and particularly defense grounds. India was major hub of Soviet weaponry and this trend continued even after collapse of Soviet Union. Russia, unlike past in no longer economic giant and suffer from poor economy due to heavy sanctions placed by EU and USA. One of its major sources of income is its market of weapon systems. India recently showed a twist in its defense policies and preferred European and US weapon systems instead of Russian one. Selections of Rafale over Mig35, Chinook over Mi26, AH64D over Mi28N, Spike missiles over Russian ATGM counterpart are major examples. This sudden twist was surprising as well as disappointing for Russians. Although India still operates its entire fleet of Armor and navy based upon Russian systems, but this trend may (or may not) also change in future if India went for Western platform for its future tanks and inducted western subs instead of Russian one.
2: Growing Pak-China influence:
Pakistan, though suffered from terrorism for more than a decade but now it is showing signs of recovery. Economy of Pakistan is growing, situation of law and order is improving day by day also not to mention political stability thanks to recent measure taken by COAS. Operations in Waziristan and Karachi helped country to stand on its feet again and return back to action. Recently China and Pakistan relations covered a mile stone in the form of CPEC project. China will invest 46 billion$ in Pakistan markets and help to solve the energy crisis. But most important factor is Gwadar port which is taking shape thanks to CPEC project. Gwadar, deepest sea port in World is located at key strategic point and is fully capable to become hub of sea trade. China instead of coving long distance across sea in hostile waters of West Sea, will prefer to travel some 1000 miles through Pakistan. This will save time, money on one side and offer security and prevention of naval blockage in case of hostility with Japan, South Korea or Taiwan in future on other side. Chinese economy stands on its trade. And it cannot afford the blockage of its key sea routes. Gwadar provides China perfect alternative.
Russia also considers Gwadar great opportunity for same reasons. Russia need effective and secure access to Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea. And Gwadar is shortest route to justify that. If Russia practically becomes part of CPEC by linking Kashgar through road or rail, it will enjoy same benefits as China. This is the only opportunity which Pakistan can provide, not India.
3: Possible transformation of Gwadar port into naval base:
India fears that once Gwadar port become operational it will no longer work as trade route only, but will become a key port for People Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to operate. It is natural for Pakistan navy to use Gwadar for military purpose but it is believed and ‘’feared’’ by some that China will place its long range surface sea vessels or nuclear subs to protect its interests in sea. Indian navy right now is most dominant in Indian ocean. Heavy presence of Chinese navy plus Pakistan navy will completely nullify its dominance in region and it will no longer be possible for Indian navy to cause Naval blockage of Pakistan in case of any major future conflict. Russia just like previous case can enjoy same benefits. Although they got strong allied navy in region i.e Indian navy, but it is possible that Indian navy will turn towards West and Americans just like their Army and Air force. Recent agreements of India and USA to jointly produce air craft carrier is most prominent example. Russia will like to make its own presence in region instead of relying on Allied countries inorder to deter US navy. Its matter of time and opportunity when Russians will take this decision, however its opposite case cannot be ruled out.
4: Development of Influence in Afghanistan:
Afghanistan after with drawl of NATO forces is still in state of war. Afghan Taliban under the command of new leader has started to show muscles and it is very clear that Afghan armed forces lack both capability and time to counter them. In the meantime negotiations between Afghan government and Taliban are going on and Pakistan is guest of these games. It is not in India interest that Pakistan play decisive role in Afghanistan. It will simple ruin its efforts of past decade to engage proxies in Pakistan. India keen to use Afghanistan as second front and it is arming afghan army by indigenous weapons and also contributing in the field of intelligence. Pakistan on the other hand wants Afghanistan on its side inorder to secure its back in case of any conflict with India. But bonus point for Pakistan is that unlike past, Iran and Pakistan now have very common interests in Afghanistan. i.e to develop peace in region and make both Taliban and Afghan forces to counter ISIS instead of fighting with each other. Pakistan won the side of Iran (Indian ally) by taking a strong decision of avoiding any involvement in Yemen conflict. Iran and China both are supporting Pakistani efforts in Afghanistan and in near future if they succeed, Afghanistan and Iran may form collective front along with Pakistan and China to full fill their interest. Russia and China share common enemies (most of). And they know that none of them alone can counter NATO dominance in any part of Word. To secure their existence and future both giants are willing to work together on political, social, economical, defense and science and tech grounds. China involvement automatically brings Russia involvement as they share most of common interests in South Asia and Middle East without any intersection. Russia will be looking forward to join alliance of China, Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan if it ever came to existence. India hostility towards China and Pakistan as well as its different interests in Iran and Afghanistan put it out of table.
5: Defense market in Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan:
Russia sees a huge market in South Asia for selling its arms. Instead of India, Russia will look forward toward three Muslim countries in region to become market for its defense equipment.
Pakistan several defense projects are directly or indirectly related to Russian tech. Even most of Chinese weapon systems operational in Pakistan have Russian origin or components. Russia provided Pakistan RD93 engines via China inorder to develop complete fleet of Jf17 Blk1 air craft. It may look forward to offer new engines like derivatives of AL31 to Pakistan directly for future blocks of Thunder aircraft. Despite of this, Russia will provide Pakistan four Mi35 Hind Gunship helicopter as initial batch. It has also offered Pakistan Mig29, Buk, Tor anti air system, Panstsir S1 and small arms to replace old gadgetry of Pak army. News for deal of most developed Russian flanker Su35S is also in air.
This is just a beginning, in future Russia is interested to work in civil sector too (gas pipe line).
Iran although still embargoed suffered from shortage of state of art and modern weaponry. Despite of Iran self-reliance on reverse engineering old weapon systems helped it to maintain its presence but it clearly lags behind Arab states in the field of modern weapons. Once sanctions are lift, Iran will become purchaser of weapons and of course West and USA will not offer Iran any weaponry. It will be Russia, China, India and Pakistan which will compete with each other to fill up that vacuum. Very likely Iran will bend toward Pak China pool instead of Indian one, and Russia knows that very well. Russia want to grow influence in Iran and Afghanistan……… and for that Pakistan is key…………..!!!
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