Pak can't afford to move forces from 'wild' west: Dawn

[anonymous1]

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan "just cannot afford to redeploy" large number of its troops from its “wild” west to its eastern border with India in the
aftermath of the Mumbai attacks as such a move risks enhanced terrorist activities within the country, leading Pakistani newspapers warned on Sunday.

Pakistan "just cannot afford to redeploy any large number of its troops on the eastern border, leaving the 'wild' west in a free fall," Dawn newspaper said in an editorial amid reports that Islamabad has shifted some 20,000 troops from the troubled tribal areas to the international border with India.

The warning came as a suicide car bomb attack killed at least 30 people at a polling station in Buner district in North West Frontier Province (NWFP).

For Pakistan, the threat posed by terrorists operating out of Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) and from along the western border to the country's internal security and stability is no less tangible, the paper said, emphasising that Islamabad cannot afford to redeploy large number of its troops on the eastern border with India.

"Isn't that the area where the world’s best intelligence says the extremist militants are holed up in significant numbers and planning to strike targets everywhere? They cannot be allowed a breather at a time when military operations are ongoing to clear the area of their roguish presence. This will serve no ones cause India or the West's," the leading English language newspaper said.

"What happened in Mumbai defies all logic, unless derailing the composite dialogue between Islamabad and New Delhi is accepted as an overriding objective of the madness that was unleashed. This is one victory the terrorists must be denied," the editorial said.

 

[Anwar2]

Dawn's editor, the poor guy is only trying to score with the foreign missions in Islamabad as that great "Enlightened Moderate Visionary".
In fact moving the forces to the Eastern border is only going to make the US / NATO forces uncomfortable. It will just freeze the insurgency in the "wild west" in its tracks. It will enhance Pakistan's stability, though it may hurt the stability of Zardari sahib and his political / military cohorts.

 

[TruthSeeker]

In fact moving the forces to the Eastern border is only going to make the US / NATO forces uncomfortable. It will just freeze the insurgency in the "wild west" in its tracks. It will enhance Pakistan's stability, though it may hurt the stability of Zardari sahib and his political / military cohorts.

Is it possible that, if too much of the Pak Army is moved out of FATA, then the number of US drone strikes will increase, and, even, US "boots on the ground" incursions might occur? It will be interesting to see if drone strikes increase. Of course, the incoming Obama administration may put any such activity on "hold" until they decide, themselves, what policy risks they want to take.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

It will just freeze the insurgency in the "wild west" in its tracks.

You mean to say that the militants have been torturing and suppressing innocent Pakistanis, bombing and burning their businesses and properties under eh guise of immorality, and have burned down hundreds of schools just because the PA is deployed in FATA?

These wanton atrocities and intolerance are a pretty pathetic reflection of whatever 'code' these Takfiris subscribe to, and the only thing it indicates is that the insurgency will not die down were the PA to leave FATA without negotiating a surrender and disbanding of any Taliban/criminal militias and a return of authority to the traditional Tribal elders, at the very least.

Lets not forget that these very militants were responsible for initiating the first massive wave of suicide bombings and assaults on troops and civilians in the aftermath of the Lal Masjid operation, an event that had nothing to do with FATA.

The actions of the militants were directly responsible for the subsequent failure of the first round of peace accords, as they left no choice to the Pakistani military but to initiate military ops against the militants to quell their attacks.

The only thing that will happen with a PA removal from FATA is a strengthening and expansion of the militias.

 

[ejaz007]

Pakistan has already moved some troops out of Fata. We do not have an option other than troop redeployment in the present scenario.
So far drone attacks have not achieved much and civilian casualties have been far more than the actual targets. As far as US boots on ground let me assure you that without air sport they would have hard time operating in Fata.

 

[ejaz007]

Pakistan, India Can't Afford War: Analysts
By RANA JAWAD, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Published: 28 Dec 09:45 EST (14:45 GMT)

ISLAMABAD - The risk of war between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan has increased with the redeployment of troops along the common border, but neither can afford the cost of such a conflict, analysts say.

The two sides have raised tensions by whipping up war hype for domestic reasons since the Mumbai attacks last month, but must step back from the brink to focus on more pressing issues such as the spread of militancy, they say.

A war is even less likely as the United States, a key ally of both Islamabad and New Delhi, would suffer as a result, the experts warn.

"The risk of war has increased with troop mobilization," Hasan Askari, a political analyst and former head of the political science department at the University of Punjab, told AFP.

"However this does not necessarily mean that the two countries will go to war. There are a number of considerations which impel the two sides not to cross the red line."

Senior Pakistani security and defense officials said Friday the military had moved a "limited number" of troops fighting Taliban militants in the tribal areas near Afghanistan to the Indian border as a "minimum security" measure.

This followed intelligence intercepts indicating that India had put its forces on notice to move to the border and cancelled all leave, they said. An Indian army spokesman however told AFP that no troops had been moved.

Retired Pakistani general Talat Masood said: "While the political and military leadership in both countries don't want war to happen, this action-and-reaction phenomenon is promoting escalation."

Both sides say they do not want war but would respond if attacked.

Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee has said that "all options" are open since the Mumbai attacks, which New Delhi has blamed on Pakistan-based militants. The attacks left 172 people dead.

"By declaring all options are on the table, New Delhi has pushed Pakistan toward a limited war scenario - something which Islamabad was reluctant to contemplate a couple of weeks ago," defense analyst Riffat Hussain told AFP.

Hussain, the head of strategic studies at Islamabad's Quaid-e-Azam University, said any escalation could lead to a catastrophic point of no return that no one could envision.

"As nuclear-armed adversaries, India and Pakistan cannot afford any kind of shooting war between them," he said.

Analysts say while tensions in South Asia may persist for some time, they will eventually be defused because of international interest in the region, especially in Washington.

Askari said U.S. and Western interests in Afghanistan would be "threatened" if Pakistan were to pull significant numbers of troops out of the tribal areas, as it would expose foreign forces to more cross-border militant attacks.

Such a withdrawal would also endanger the flow of supplies to NATO and U.S. forces in Afghanistan, as the roads through northwest Pakistan would not be secure, he said.

Masood agreed, saying: "Pakistan should be focusing more on the tribal territories to fight Al-Qaeda and control Talibanisation. Any diversion will be disastrous for the country, for the region and for international peace."

New Delhi-based security expert C. Uday Bhaskar said Pakistani troop movements "seem to be part of the army's strategy to obfuscate the real issue of the (Mumbai) attacks."

"It is a signal to the Americans that they should not push the Pakistani army beyond a point. Although it seems like an India-Pakistan issue, the operative part is Pakistan-U.S. ties," Bhaskar told AFP.

Hussain warned that India's tough stance would backfire if maintained, as it would embolden the forces of extremism in Pakistan - a price neither country could afford to pay.

"That would not only imperil the internal security of Pakistan but also permanently damage prospects of a lasting peace between the two states," he said.

Pakistan, India Can't Afford War: Analysts - Defense News

 

[Kasrkin]

The only thing that will happen with the removal of PA would be a complete and wide spread massacre of factions and individuals seen as even remotely subscribing to Jinnah's vision of Pakistan in FATA and the consolidation of the enemy. Within a year the PA will be fighting to hold territory outside of FATA, places like Swat, Kohat, Cherat, Abbottabad you name it. All the way to the homes of the people who right now blame the PA for being deployed against their ‘own people’, with shells landing on their roofs these very same people would be the ones crying about why PA didn’t deal with this threat when it was easier to contain. If we withdraw from FATA not only do we lose FATA and our honor, but we have a tougher fight on our hands which we might not be able to afford. War is that you hit the enemy has hard as you can, as quickly as you can so no one gets away. Pussying off will not bring us any victory or respite, only further death and defeat.

India might not leave us with much of a choice in this regard, but a war with India might be the morale boaster our nation and therefore Army needs to deal with the FATA threat as well. A contained conflict with India will lead to the redeployment to the East, but it would be hard for the Taliban/Al-Qaeda to take advantage of that in a serious way IMO because the Pakistani public would feel that the PA is being cornered and attacked by both sides. With that much public support for their 'underdog' of an Army, I feel not only will the Army be able to arrange a fitting response for any Indian aggression but also be able to role back and re-reinforce our positions in the West as part of the WoT once the Indians have been taught a lesson. I don't have a very high opinion of the Pakistani Taliban, but one thing I have to grudgingly admit is that these bastards excel at selling their bullcrap to the Pakistani people; those disillusioned enough to believe that the Taliban are only humble, loyal Pakistanis who are only fighting in self-defense against the American backed devilishly evil PA. It would be hard for them to maintain that advantage and confusion if they are seen acting correspondingly against the PA when at war with India. I seriously doubt the Taliban will help us in a war, but at the same time I don't think they will have the maneuverability options to make inroads against the under-manned Pakistani held territories. This would make horrible news for the Taliban PR i.e. "8 Pakistan soldiers killed defending Indian thrusts in Azad Kashmir also other news militants in FATA killed 5 Pakistani soldiers and destroyed their bunkers." The population would be up in arms, even the tribal population would be disinclined to take up arms against a Muslim Army fighting the ‘evil’ Hindus for the time being, we’ll be okay if we play our cards right. Organize quick deployments and redeployments and keep the munitions and spare parts supply lines with the US open.

My Conclusion:
Redeploying of ALL forces just because the JI Amir thinks it’s a good idea= Retarded move.
Redeploying forces because of national security compulsions from the Indian side=Acceptable move.

 

[Bane Blade]

The only thing that will happen with the removal of PA would be a complete and wide spread massacre of factions and individuals seen as even remotely subscribing to Jinnah's vision of Pakistan in FATA and the consolidation of the enemy. Within a year the PA will be fighting to hold territory outside of FATA, places like Swat, Kohat, Cherat, Abbottabad you name it. All the way to the homes of the people who right now blame the PA for being deployed against their ‘own people’, with shells landing on their roofs these very same people would be the ones crying about why PA didn’t deal with this threat when it was easier to contain. If we withdraw from FATA not only do we lose FATA and our honor, but we have a tougher fight on our hands which we might not be able to afford. War is that you hit the enemy has hard as you can, as quickly as you can so no one gets away. Pussying off will not bring us any victory or respite, only further death and defeat.

I think that the Pakistan Army should secure there current position on the western front make our borders secure as far as they can to the point they have reached and start by helping the people that have been displaced and secure the Eastern front first not only will this create jobs but our society and the people of FATA will grow as a whole. I think withdrawl doesn't mean pack your bags and leave we will continue to demolish the terrorists later. Untill then we can leave our intelligence to investigate so our second wave on the terrorists after securing the eastern front would come as a crushing and final blow. During this period we can keep our border on the west secure upto the point we have reached although this may sound alarm bells for a U.S. invasion from the west I seriously doubt that would happen.We should allow allow all Pakistani citizens to come to safety upto the point we have reached, I think it is time to rebuild all the demolished areas where the terrorists have been pushed out from because if we continue to attack and hopefully finish off the terrorists the army may lose its PR over the damage they have done to the villages causing a loss for all the Pakistanis which the media is escalating to huge proportions.

India might not leave us with much of a choice in this regard, but a war with India might be the morale boaster our nation and therefore Army needs to deal with the FATA threat as well. A contained conflict with India will lead to the redeployment to the East, but it would be hard for the Taliban/Al-Qaeda to take advantage of that in a serious way IMO because the Pakistani public would feel that the PA is being cornered and attacked by both sides. With that much public support for their 'underdog' of an Army, I feel not only will the Army be able to arrange a fitting response for any Indian aggression but also be able to role back and re-reinforce our positions in the West as part of the WoT once the Indians have been taught a lesson. I don't have a very high opinion of the Pakistani Taliban, but one thing I have to grudgingly admit is that these bastards excel at selling their bullcrap to the Pakistani people; those disillusioned enough to believe that the Taliban are only humble, loyal Pakistanis who are only fighting in self-defense against the American backed devilishly evil PA. It would be hard for them to maintain that advantage and confusion if they are seen acting correspondingly against the PA when at war with India. I seriously doubt the Taliban will help us in a war, but at the same time I don't think they will have the maneuverability options to make inroads against the under-manned Pakistani held territories. This would make horrible news for the Taliban PR i.e. "8 Pakistan soldiers killed defending Indian thrusts in Azad Kashmir also other news militants in FATA killed 5 Pakistani soldiers and destroyed their bunkers." The population would be up in arms, even the tribal population would be disinclined to take up arms against a Muslim Army fighting the ‘evil’ Hindus for the time being, we’ll be okay if we play our cards right. Organize quick deployments and redeployments and keep the munitions and spare parts supply lines with the US open.

I agree with your point but I think that after securing the Eastern front our enemies will fear us and the terrorist will be destroyed we will also have a reason to celebrate because hopefully we will also have rebuilt part of Pakistan that we were ignoring from time to time. If a restricted defence is put up against a full scale war from the Indians we may soon have to wake up to the reality that all of Pakistan has been lost making us wonder what the point was to fight the terrorists was anyway. Leaving the western front as it is can be a better option but in a cautious manner. I don't think that our public feels we are an underdog army at all infact the media keeps on projecting the army as an overspending institution not only that but the army has always been our symbol of pride so we are no underdogs from a critical or a positve view of our army. On top of that I admit that the terrorists have already put on a mask saying that we have stopped fighting PA and will support them in the war against India and not allow anyone to pass through. Although I seriously doubt this but I still think they wouldn't attack because it will be marketing suicide for them leaving people not to trust there type.

My Conclusion:
Redeploying of ALL forces just because the JI Amir thinks it’s a good idea= Retarded move.
Redeploying forces because of national security compulsions from the Indian side=Acceptable move.

I can't agree more I think that Pakistan has to defend both sides of the border but they need to concentrate more on the battle thats looming because we don't want to be crushed from both sides. Terrorists are a threat to our society but I still think that Pakistan needs to deal with enemies before inner issues. The JI Amir has more knowledge of the region and maybe he knows better than you and I do. We should redeploy from now or we may have to make a rushed exit causing more harm than good.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

The JI Amir has more knowledge of the region and maybe he knows better than you and I do.

The JI amir also has a vested interest in seeing the taliban succeed and enforce 'Shariah' (or a perverted interpretation of it) through force, since the religious parties have very little hope or chance of ever accomplishing that through a free and fair democratic process.

While I agree with Kasrkins argument of setting priorities and dealing with the larger Indian threat, at the moment, I do not think there shoudl be a complete withdrawal of forces or assets. The territory that has been fought over and claimed should be retained through a smaller force presence, though an expansion of the operation in FATA, as seemed imminent, should be postponed.

Organized attempts to retake lost positions by the Taliban should continue to be repulsed, as should their attempts to infiltrate into the settled districts.

 

[Kasrkin]

^^^Which is exactly my opinion and I quote myself:

Redeploying of ALL forces just because the JI Amir thinks it’s a good idea= Retarded move.

Normally I'd say it goes against military sense to occupy undermanned positions, putting your troops through unnecessary risk and exposure without a creditable chance of gain or retain-ment of objectives. But a war with India would be different; almost perfect way to do exactly that. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not entirely counting on some blind expectations of tribesmen loyalty or honor not to attack us on our 6, but I’m sure that even their primitive notions of strategical perception would oblige them to contend with the fact that killing our men (and they WILL have to kill our men if they wish to retake or reoccupy our positions because I have advocated maintaining skeleton forces at our present disposition in the West with unrestrained and aggressive Non-Ceasefire RoEs) would result in full scale vindictive and unforgiving rumbling through of their territories by the freed up PA Army juggernaut. I believe that recent offensives have taught the Taliban that there is no territory that they can hold if the PA wishes to contest it, also if we continue to retain our (diminished) forces at their former aggressive postures in the West…it would send a clear message to the enemy that despite the eastern war, we are there to stay.

I don’t deny that this is some seriously aggressive and what some might even call callous thinking, but I believe it can work and that we as guardians of Pakistan are obliged to fend it against every threat. We will have to redeploy anyway, might as well still do it when the momentum is with you and the men have been sufficiently brutalized by a real war. Also enemy morale will be adversely affected due to reasons of religious loyality and confusion that would give rise to, a factor they have been utilizing marvelously well against us and our people for so long. Say we are still fighting Indian backed forces in the West, and that will even shut the JI up.

All hypothetical at the moment ofcourse, but I hope you will forgive my little indulgences.

 

[Patriot]

nevermind..

 

[waraich66]

Pakistan "just cannot afford to redeploy any large number of its troops on the eastern border, leaving the 'wild' west in a free fall," Dawn newspaper said in an editorial amid reports that Islamabad has shifted some 20,000 troops from the troubled tribal areas to the international border with India

Pakistan did the right move.Pakistan should not lose advantage of strategic depth in west.
"Man behind the gun is more important".

 

[Anwar2]

Dear AgNoStIc MuSliM

“”You mean to say that the militants have been torturing and suppressing innocent Pakistanis, bombing and burning their businesses ……….””

Such pathetic atrocious acts happen when war hysteria overwhelms human senses, and turns man into a beast .. Sometimes temporarily sometimes permanently.

Please have the moral courage to condemn the carnage of non-combatants and innocents as a result of shelling, bombing by the Army in equally strong words. The fact that more than 30% of Bajaur’s population has been displaced at one time or another cannot be dismissed lightly. The worst part is coordinating UAV strikes with the US on “positions” in Pakistani territory.

Lal Masjid transformed Pakistan’s political psychology, perhaps permanently … in much the same way as 9/11 for the USA. Majority of the 300 girl students who were converted into various organic compounds of phosphorus belonged to Swat and FATA.

PA negotiates and gets surrender and disband ceremonies almost every week! Therefore its time for PA to declare Victory and deploy to their correct locations.

 

[Anwar2]

Dear Kasrkin:
By your own admission Taleban do not have the guts or the resources to hold on to any territory. Also they don’t have much in terms of direct or indirect fire support. Therefore the likelihood of “shells landing on the roofs” in Kohat, Abbottabad etc is pretty minimal.
By the same token a shell landing on the roof of a house in Kabal, Swat has exactly the same effect as one landing on Wahdat colony, Lahore. BOTH are parts of Pakistani territory.

“”War is that you hit the enemy has hard as you can, as quickly as you can so no one gets away””.
Yes that makes great strategy once taken in the context of a REAL war. But this one is a rather phony war, which is self created by our political / leadership to Score with the Americans.

Dear brother, having read the last part of your post, my sincere advice is for you to study the First war of Kashmir (1948), Operation Grand Slam (1965) and Al-Badr Mujahideen operations in Kargil 1999. Also please visit easy access FATA areas like Landi Kotal or Miranshah to understand the people and even the “bad guys”.
Please don’t worry about the reactions of FATA people and Taleban in event of a war with India. After the first PA chief General Gracey point blank refused Quaid-e-Azam in 1948 to deploy to Kashmir; it was tribal lashkars and militias from Waziristan, Khyber, Swat and Chitral that liberated what we have of Azad Kashmir and Northern Areas. The slight debacles in Zojila pass and Laddakh Nubra valley in the last phases were attributed to the reluctance of the then British PA leadership.

The greatest threat during an India-Pak war will be from a US/NATO incursion into tribal areas in the guise of a “stabilization” operation. PA only needs to leave a few ANZA and AAA platoons to take care of low-level threats. The rest will be addressed by logistics circumstances prevailing at that time.

JI Amir can go to hell or heaven! He is entitled to his views like other politicians. In my opinion the only sincere politician left in the fray is Imran Khan.

 

[Kasrkin]

Very good brother, very good.

By your own admission Taleban do not have the guts or the resources to hold on to any territory. Also they don’t have much in terms of direct or indirect fire support. Therefore the likelihood of “shells landing on the roofs” in Kohat, Abbottabad etc is pretty minimal.

Actually, I never said that they lack sufficient guts or resources because that would be a dangerous underestimation of the enemy and this enemy in particular. In fact my view is quite to the contrary (I'm looking at you Indian consulates in Afghanistan), they have waaaay too much guts but the PA is also starting to excel at decorating the ground with them.

Also by ‘shells landing of the roofs’ my meaning was simple, the shells can be from the Army or from the Taliban and their allies who would inevitability acquire such capabilities were they to grow in influence and strength if we give them free rein (they already have access to have wide variety of indirect fire weapons like mortars and rockets) like deserted artillery pieces from the FC and other paramilitaries. Anyway the point is that in war, shells and bombs do fall on people’s houses. Something not many Imran Khan types seem to appreciate. It’s important that you understand at the end of the day NO ONE wants Taliban running down their streets and the Army and the Air Force having to bomb them there. Better the mountains and forts of Waziristan than your homes.

Yes that makes great strategy once taken in the context of a REAL war. But this one is a rather phony war, which is self created by our political / leadership to Score with the Americans.

That’s a pretty offensive and un-substantiated thing to say brother. Musharraf or anyone else in the government didn’t ask for the Al-Qeada scum to just walk into our essentially remote and unguarded border areas, heck we even tried to stop them. It was the tribes that failed in their age old responsibility to keep our frontiers secure from those who would undermine our sovereignty. Not only that but the tribes were infiltrated, and unhelpful to the point of engaging Army units (logistics and engineers at first) who came to rectify the problem and establish some semblance of over watch. Besides it can hardly be said that Pakistani leaders are ‘scoring’ with the US in the WoT, in fact quite to the contrary. Terrorists from Waziristan just tried to blow Musharraf up twice before the Army was ordered in, now what else would anyone have done?

Please don’t worry about the reactions of FATA people and Taleban in event of a war with India. After the first PA chief General Gracey point blank refused Quaid-e-Azam in 1948 to deploy to Kashmir

First of all brother, Pakistan Army’s first Chief was not General Gracey, it was General Messervy (had to learn all that stuff for ISSB, lol) but as to the point about the role played by irregulars in the First Kashmir War then be assured that I am very aware of that. Perhaps more that you, also about the messes these tribesmen made while they were there as recounted by former Pakistani officers serving at that time. They were a “law onto themselves” and would not have withstood the Indian invasion had the PA not reinforced them when Jinnah was finally able to prevail over Gracey. That’s not to say I don’t appreciate their contributions, but I’m realistic and it is easy to suggest that their actions were not completely selfless or patriotic as their conduct later on demonstrated.

The greatest threat during an India-Pak war will be from a US/NATO incursion into tribal areas in the guise of a “stabilization” operation. PA only needs to leave a few ANZA and AAA platoons to take care of low-level threats.

I do not think that would be wise brother because first of all, I don’t think NATO/US would invade a nuclear armed Pakistan in the middle of a potentially nuclear war. Second because we will need those platforms and systems to our east to fight the Indians, thirdly because leaving weaponry like that out in these mountains could very well result in them being captured and used by the Taliban (probably with the help of foreign advisors) against the very Pakistani Army choppers.

JI Amir can go to hell or heaven! He is entitled to his views like other politicians. In my opinion the only sincere politician left in the fray is Imran Khan.

JI and Imran Khan are pretty much on the same page bro. Both feel that it is the Pakistan Army that is to blame for the war and that the tribesmen are just loyal humble warriors defending themselves and that Al-Qaeda/Taliban elements who have murdered tribal leaders in their hundreds and intimidated the population don’t exist.