An excellent read. It is high time that we change our Afghan policy. Back in the 2001, I think our establishment made the grave mis-judgment of thinking Americans won't stay in Afghanistan for long. Whatever regime they setup in Afghanistan will eventually fall to Taliban, and hence we hedged our bets. It has already been 17 years and we have suffered economically and diplomatically because of that mis-judgement.
The fact of the matter is, ANA with Nato air support, will not allow Taliban to hold any major city. We have seen it in case of Kunduz a couple of year ago, Taliban were able to capture the city but could not hold it when the air support arrived. Similarly, while Sangin was a perfect example of how incapable ANA is on its on, but with US air support things always change. Taliban can control the countryside, but Kabul will not fall in the foreseeable future.
Also we have to think about whether we actually want Taliban to take over Afghanistan. I did not agree with Huntington's Clash of Civilization theory in its totality, but in his book one of his point that I agree to was that ever since the Soviet Afghan war, militant groups in Islamic world got a new hope that yes it can be done. Now if US backs down and Kabul falls, what will stop these groups to try the same within Pakistan or Sinkiang, do we really want that.
So instead of hedging our bets on Taliban, we should first try to agree them to a meaningful dialogue with Kabul. And if it all fails, treat them as our enemies. Yes it will be a very controversial stance but in current world scenario we'll have to take it. We can't wait any longer for things to happen.
But my dear Afghan friend, Afghanistan has to change its policies towards us as well. There is a reason we prefer Talibans and religious minded militias in your country over nationalist Afghans. Ever since 1949 when you convened that Loy Jirga to not accept our international border with you guys, we have seen only trouble from our western borders. While the Pushtunistan boogie man is long dead and buried. But unless your leadership openly accepts that they accept the Durand line as an international border, we will continue to see you with doubt. Also Kabul should be ready to give concessions to Taliban if you guys are to have a genuine dialogue.