OPPORTUNITY - Pentagon suspends weapon deliveries to Iraq, leaving Iraqi F-16 fleet in the air

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Beauty doesn't win the fight when it can't fly under sanctions.

We really need to diversify away from Western sanctions prone equipment.

Ramp up JF-17 BLKIII, couple of J-10s and stop gap like FC-31 until AZAM materializes. But also keep battery testing and hammering our planes to find any flaws and upgrades that need to be done.



My feeling is the same -- right now the F-16 pilots might be wearing glasses and showing off but when sanctions bite they'll all be stuck in the cafe room.

The interest in the F-16 stems from the fact that the PAF already has the infrastructure to operate both the Block-15 A/B and the Block-52 C/D. It's a pragmatic look at how to quickly build-up a fleet, and, in a way, secure against the effect of sanctions by having more of the same fighter on hand (for storage as spares for parts and attrition).

That said, I'd be against new-built F-16s. The ideal scenario would be picking up Iraq's F-16s and running them (as well as our existing fleet) through the F-16V upgrade in Pakistan. Of course, it won't happen. It's 'too good' and 'too simple,' and for Pakistan, that can never happen, not in our dreams. So, we're going to end up eating grass.

Otherwise, the money that could go into an off-the-shelf fighter -- J-10CE included -- will end up in Project Azm. It's Project Azm or nothing, basically. The only exception the PAF will make is for the F-16, but more so for the sake of upgrading what it already has, and expanding a fleet it already supports. But it won't put money down for a new so-called 4+/4.5-gen platform; too few birds for too much money.

If, by some twist of fate, the PAF can scrounge up the Iraqi F-16s plus some used A/Bs from Europe, plus the Qatari, Egyptian and some French Mirage 2000s, then it'd be ecstatic, and it'll happily wait until AZM comes alive. But again, their road is never an easy one.

 

[StormBreaker]

Mirage-3/5 Delta-Wing family are widely regarded as very stable weapons platform with a good payload for it's era. But being a conventional tailless delta it is restricted in medium to slow speed maneuverability (the usual speed domain for WVR dogfights).

The whole design is emphasized to attain the highest Mach number at the Tropopause. It has proved excellent, however, as a Ground Attack aircraft.

The Mirage-3/5 family owe their success greatly to the mastery of the Pakistani and Israeli pilots ... that made this type world famous ... also it was a very futuristic looking design for it's time.

The Mirage-F1 was a much better design with better maneuverability at all flight envelopes than the Mirage-3/5 family.

The Mirage-2000 is a modern relaxed stability CCV-FBW evolution of the older Mirages. This dramatically improves the maneuverability of the traditional tailless delta and it's canard like intake strakes help spread flow vortices that further enhance that maneuverability.

The introduction of the full fledged canards, like in the EuroFighter, Rafale and J-10 ... further enhances the flow vortices based response.

The most superb dedicated strike fighter i.e. Tornado was not a delta wing design but a swing wing one. Which gave excellent low level and high level ride performance. The low level smoothness of flight at tansonic speeds (vital for strike missions) of Tornado, is unsurpassed to this day.

So J-10 type fighters incorporate features of Deltas as well as Tailed aircrafts ?

 

[aliyusuf]

So J-10 type fighters incorporate features of Deltas as well as Tailed aircrafts ?

As per my layman's opinion, yes.

 

[GumNaam]

I obviously meant Pakistan -_-

this is an opportunity for Pakistan to offer the JF17s to Iraq. We are now independent of wanting to import F16s...don't need 'em, don't want 'em.

 

[Raider 21]

a mix of history and shia proxy..we have a very bad history..iraq has openely done things against pakistan interest though in last days of saddam things were getting better

Yet at the same time PAF Academy were training their pilots to be qualified IPs from FIS. The weird thing is the Iranian general who got whacked in Iraq by the US would threaten Pakistan yet they still get Iranian AF pilots trained at PAF Risalpur.

Jeez, this topic still going.

Why in the PAF section?

Just because the title reads 'Opportunity'.

Look in order to get F-16 is quite simple. You need two parties to agree. Pakistan should want them. US should be willing to give 'em.

Where they come from is irrelevant...Norway, Belgium, Egypt or...Iraq.

Doubt it. Iraqis love the Vipers a lot. Not to mention they have a good fleet of L-159s and T-50s coming in.

 

[Signalian]

Bhaijan, thanks for the reply.

Just a general knowledge question for myself.

What edge does deltas like Mirages have over normal wing config like F-16/Thunders.?

I know it has got to do with altitude and Low profile as well as better operability and maneuvering.

Could you explain me all this in bold and their differences in delta and normal wings with hor stabs.

Also, the reason was, the general doctrine or way PAF operates with regards to Cross border A2G missions as well as mountainous regions and how Mirage 2000 would fit better than J-10 (canard delta).

Also, why does canard delta not fit in all this? (Not referencing J-10 or M2K but just a general question)

Sorry for too many questions but can’t find the answers to all these since good posts are buried deep in random threads so no where to learn this.

Not my area of study neither expertise. @messiach is one of the members who should have a good idea.

Few things that i know, Delta wing has larger life span, more structural integrity due to design, but should have better engines for gaining air speed. Supersonic flight is more stable. Angle of attack becomes higher. Delta is more stable at low altitudes also. Delta wing can reduce drag during change of speed. Some 4.5 Gen jets use canards, with or without Delta. Canard helps in lift, putting less stress on wings but there could be a compromise on stability.

F-7 P/PG also has a somewhat delta designed wing, but its role is diminishing slowly in PAF.

PAF uses Mirage-III/V for surface attacks, maybe because of delta config, but also since F-16s are lesser in number so used in AD role, though no lesser capable than Mirage-V in surface attack. If perhaps, PAF had 150+ F-16s, then PAF would be using them for strike roles consistently. Have you seen what happened in WOT ? PAF used F-16 in strike role for bombing missions, there was no enemy AF, but when there is a conflict with another country like India which has IAF, so F-16 primarily went on AD role to face Mig-21, Mig-29, SU-30 and Mirage-2000.
The upgraded ROSE-I Mirage-III are 33 only, for AD role. ROSE-II and ROSE-III are combined 34 (20+14) Mirage-V upgraded for strike role with terrain hugging night capability. I am not sure how many have been cannibalized, but lets say around 50 non upgraded Mirage-III and 50 non upgraded Mirage-V are flown by PAF. Thats a total around 165 aircraft (upgraded and non upgraded). Basically Mirage-III was a primarily for air to air role, while Mirage-V was strike variant of Mirage-III., however PAF gave strike role to Mirage-III by deploying Ra'ad and using it in strike role in previous wars too.

PAF has 76 F-16s. The 18 x F-16 Block 52+ are the tip of the spear and bear the brunt of pressure in any scenario. They are expected to deliver anything and everything: Strike-AD-Escort-CAP-EW etc. JF-17 are around 100+, JF-17 has one more role - SEAD. Probably experience with Mirage-III/V also led PAF to use them for strike rather than JF-17 which has debuted just few years ago.The psyche i saw was that PAF used first tier aircrafts for AD role and second tier for strike.

When i posted about Mirage 2000, it was not about delta wings, it was mainly about accessibility to older tech that can be upgraded as required as in case of Mirage III and Mirage V. French have allowed PAF to integrate weapons of choice on Mirage-III/V so could let PAF do the same on Mirage-2000. It was about Politics too, Mirage 2000 is an older aircraft of European origin whose production line has ended. Some friendly countries have them and can sell them to PAF. The aircraft seems suitable for Ra'ad deployment.

Would Russians let PAF deploy Ra'ad on say SU-25 or SU-35 or SU-34, if PAF buys any ?

Mirage-III is ending life, Mirage-V is on same track. Azm is all under covers. F-16 tech cannot be altered. JFT, AFAIK, cannot carry Ra'ad. PAF is not interested in J-10 and wants to bring JF-17 closer in tech to J-10 through Block III. I am all for J-10, but realistically PAF is not.

Unless Pakistan Air Force, Intelligence Services or other in the Pakistan Military establishment have managed to find a way to accumulate large cache of Viper parts.

So what kept PAF F-16s flying during a decade of sanctions ?

Ramp up JF-17 BLKIII, couple of J-10s and stop gap like FC-31 until AZAM materializes. But also keep battery testing and hammering our planes to find any flaws and upgrades that need to be done.

FC-31 and then whatever comes out of AZM ?
Why fly two types of 5th gen aircrafts ?

FC-31 variant could be Project Azm.

 

[Signalian]

With regards to Iraqi F-16s, they are similar to PAF F-16s (Blk-52s) but lack some AA capability (can't fire Aim-120) which is not to difficult for the manufacturer to rectify.

USN is operating 14 x F-16 A/B as aggressor that PAF had asked for.

 

[StormBreaker]

Not my area of study neither expertise. @messiach is one the members who should have a good idea.

Few things that i know, Delta wing has larger life span, more structural integrity due to design, but should have better engines for gaining air speed. Supersonic flight is more stable. Angle of attack becomes higher. Delta is more stable at low altitudes also. Delta wing can reduce drag during change of speed. Some 4.5 Gen jets use canards, with or without Delta. Canard helps in lift, putting less stress on wings but there could be a compromise on stability.

F-7 P/PG also has a somewhat delta designed wing, but its role is diminishing slowly in PAF.

PAF uses Mirage-III/V for surface attacks, maybe because of delta config, but also since F-16s are lesser in number so used in AD role, though no lesser capable than Mirage-V in surface attack. If perhaps, PAF had 150+ F-16s, then PAF would be using them for strike roles consistently. Have you seen what happened in WOT ? PAF used F-16 in strike role for bombing missions, there was no enemy AF, but when there is a conflict with another country like India which has IAF, so F-16 primarily went on AD role to face Mig-21, Mig-29, SU-30 and Mirage-2000.
The upgraded ROSE-I Mirage-III are 33 only, for AD role. ROSE-II and ROSE-III are combined 34 (20+14) Mirage-V upgraded for strike role with terrain hugging night capability. I am not sure how many have been cannibalized, but lets say around 50 non upgraded Mirage-III and 50 non upgraded Mirage-V are flown by PAF. Thats a total around 165 aircraft (upgraded and non upgraded). Basically Mirage-III was a primarily for air to air role, while Mirage-V was strike variant of Mirage-III., however PAF gave strike role to Mirage-III by deploying Ra'ad and using it in strike role in previous wars too.

PAF has 76 F-16s. The 18 x F-16 Block 52+ are the tip of the spear and bear the brunt of pressure in any scenario. They are expected to deliver anything and everything: Strike-AD-Escort-CAP-EW etc. JF-17 are around 100+, JF-17 has one more role - SEAD. Probably experience with Mirage-III/V also led PAF to use them for strike rather than JF-17 which has debuted just few years ago.The psyche i saw was that PAF used first tier aircrafts for AD role and second tier for strike.

When i posted about Mirage 2000, it was not about delta wings, it was mainly about accessibility to older tech that can be upgraded as required as in case of Mirage III and Mirage V. French have allowed PAF to integrate weapons of choice on Mirage-III/V so could let PAF do the same on Mirage-2000. It was about Politics too, Mirage 2000 is an older aircraft of European origin whose production line has ended. Some friendly countries have them and can sell them to PAF. The aircraft seems suitable for Ra'ad deployment.

Would Russians let PAF deploy Ra'ad on say SU-25 or SU-35 or SU-34, if PAF buys any ?

Mirage-III is ending life, Mirage-V is on same track. Azm is all under covers. F-16 tech cannot be altered. JFT, AFAIK, cannot carry Ra'ad. PAF is not interested in J-10 and wants to bring JF-17 closer in tech to J-10 through Block III. I am all for J-10, but realistically PAF is not.


So what kept PAF F-16s flying during a decade of sanctions ?


FC-31 and then whatever comes out of AZM ?
Why fly two types of 5th gen aircrafts ?

FC-31 variant could be Project Azm.

It would be interesting to know what role PAF appoints to Block 3, releasing pressure on Block 52s, they could very well be used for AD not immediately but time to come.

 

[AMRAAM]

It would be interesting to know what role PAF appoints to Block 3, releasing pressure on Block 52s, they could very well be used for AD not immediately but time to come.

That would be possible only if PL-15 is integrated. IMO.

 

[StormBreaker]

That would be possible only if PL-15 is integrated. IMO.

I don’t understand why all of you discredit SD-10 as if it is nothing ??
Our AIM-120C5s have range no more than 100km, and SD-10 is also not much more or less, around 90-100.

PL-15 is a game changer but AIM-120 and SD-10 are already even now the greatest threat to IAF

That would be possible only if PL-15 is integrated. IMO.

Can i mount you on thunders Mr.AMRAAM ?

 

[Signalian]

It would be interesting to know what role PAF appoints to Block 3, releasing pressure on Block 52s, they could very well be used for AD not immediately but time to come.

Range and Payload of F-16 C/D Block 52+ will remain more than JFT Block III. They could compliment each other though. Even the F-16 A/B Block 15 MLU should be able to compliment JFT Block III - F-16 A/B being the escort and JFT as strike platform. Data Links will be different - Link 16 and Link 17.

PAF should get additional F-16 Block 52+ or F-16 Block 70/72. The combo of JFT Block III and F-16 Block 70/72 will prove a major headache for Rafale. Major difference between Block 52+ and Block 70 is the AESA Radar.

That would be possible only if PL-15 is integrated. IMO.

What if Pl-15 is already integrated on JFT Block I and Block II and the internet isn't aware of this development?

 

[StormBreaker]

Range and Payload of F-16 C/D Block 52+ will remain more than JFT Block III. They could compliment each other though. Even the F-16 A/B Block 15 MLU should be able to compliment JFT Block III - F-16 A/B being the escort and JFT as strike platform. Data Links will be different - Link 16 and Link 17.

PAF should get additional F-16 Block 52+ or F-16 Block 70/72. The combo of JFT Block III and F-16 Block 70/72 will prove a major headache for Rafale. Major difference between Block 52+ and Block 70 is the AESA Radar.


What if Pl-15 is already integrated on JFT Block I and Block II and the internet isn't aware of this development?

You see, the sole problem would be datalink differences.

Is there any way to create an interface between Link 16 and 17 to use output data from each other and try to come up with some sort of joint solution to overcome the link differences ? Answer would be best from @denel in this regards.

I also think that Block 3 unless reaches around 50, and 4 years operational status, won’t be formally used for AD roles even though they can complement in the time before 2024-2025. If PAF does get F-16s, even B52s, that would be a blessing for us.
Since we are not seeing block 3s formally in AD roles for some time, we should use this to our advantage and get F-16s as soon as possible with Rafale being the bargaining chip.

The period between 2020 and 2025 is very crucial for PAF to plan and execute their motives for the current fighters in fleet, such as F-16s and Mirages. If V upgrade becomes a possibility, we should try to get that done by 2024 and get some more F-16s. Ozgur will be ready by 2023 latest, if everything goes ok, but I don’t think they will be implemented at fast rate, TuAF will divert most of the production to their own fleet instead of selling to others and I don’t see ozgur going to anyone else even Pakistan as USA won’t let that happen.

Sooner or later, we might start hearing about V upgrades happening as that is the most probable scenario. Once that happens, then it will be very much interesting to see how PAF divides the roles to Block 3, and F-16s. Even Block 1 might start getting MLUs by 2025-26 and upgrades to Block 3 level followed by Block 2. Block 1s are already flying with many flight hours since they have been used aggressively in the timespan.

 

[aliyusuf]

I also think that Block 3 unless reaches around 50, and 4 years operational status, won’t be formally used for AD roles ......
Since we are not seeing block 3s formally in AD roles for some time

So we are basing this on what?

 

[StormBreaker]

So we are basing this on what?

Basing this upon mixing up some facts and ideas

- F-16 especially B52s are the most advanced and competent fighters in our inventory and are the front line of Defence. But block 3 will be far above it in critical terms

- Thunders lack the weight carrying capacity of F-16s so we can say that for every F-16 in AD, 1.5/2 Thunders should replace the same role when done.

- The fact that Rafales would be really a threat and sending in B52s would be a bad or highly risky idea so better send in Block 3 and higher in numbers than Rafale or F-16 to counter an intruder. PL-15 is also the reason.

- Most important of all, Link 17 and its association with our ground assets, radars, SAMs, and AWACS. Link 16 falls short here unlike TuAF which has made Link-16 central to all its equipments in air and ground.

 

[AMRAAM]

What if Pl-15 is already integrated on JFT Block I and Block II and the internet isn't aware of this development?

That will be ice on the cake.