Today russian currency was traded at 85 rubles per dollar.
Russia planned a budget deficit of 1,8trln rubles for 2023, but it is only June and the budget deficit is 3,9trln rubles and will be 7-8trln rubles by the end of this year.
Russia funds its budget deficit with its dollar Reserve Fund that has 6,3trln rubles. They thought this Reserve Fund will last for three years of war, but it seems like they will exhaust this Reserve Fund by the end of this year.
In addition, Russia's trade balance and current account balance is worsening due to Western oil/gas embargo and price cap on the Russian energy....Budget revenues from oil/gas decreased by 46% this year.
Exhaustion of the dollar Reserve Fund on the one hand and worsening of the current account balance on the other hand will devalue russian ruble even further by 2024.
In addition, Russia will have to heavily borrow money on the domestic market to fund its 2024 budget deficit.
Devaluation of the Russian currency in 2024 due to decreased supply of dollars (due to worsening of the current account balance and exhaustion of the dollar Reserve Fund) will increase inflation and will force Russian Central Bank to tighten monetary policy and increase interest rate.
Tight monetary policy on the one hand and heavy demand for money from the government on the other hand (due to heavy borrowings) will increase bank interest rates even further and result in recession in Russia in 2024.
Next year nominal GDP per capita and average salary in countries like Turkey and Kazakhstan will probably surpass nominal GDP per capita and average salary in Russia.
Next year it will be very difficult for Russia to fund its expensive war in Ukraine, while undefeated Ukraine will still be funded and armed by the entire West.
Everything is moving towards disaster......