Open discussion about economy of Northeast China

[AndrewJin]

Let's first have a look at GDP growth of provinces in the first six months of 2015.

National Bureau of Statistics(datas of mainland China only)

Economically, mainland China is divided in four major economic zones,
1, Costal China (GDP of 2014 5.3 trillion US dollar, 507 million people)
2, Central China (GDP of 2014 2.1 trillion US dollar, 356 million people)
3, Western China (GDP of 2014 2.1 trillion US dollar, 361 million people)
4, Northeast China (GDP of 2014 0.9 trillion US dollar, 110 million people)

The GDP per capita of NE China is not the lowest, however, the momentum of economy of NE China is on the slow track. What's your viewpoint towards economy of NE China? Any constructive suggestions to her future?

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[EAsian]

Take back russia occupied far east territory.The economy of NE China will climb like rocket.Otherwise it will fall back to the level of Central China for obivious reason.

 

[AndrewJin]

Young people leaving north-east China prompts fall in growth

Economic growth in north-east China slowed sharply in the first half of 2015. The north-east is regarded as the last stronghold of the former planned economy. There are growing concerns over the economic revival of the region as many are leaving for better opportunities elsewhere.

Statistics from the Sixth National Population Census show that on average, more than 2 million people have emigrated from northeast China every year. Here in Shenyang, we visited the country’s largest IT service provider to see how it is coping with the lack of young talent.

"Because young talents will go where there are opportunities, the same scenario applies to capital flow... Our company has always thrived by attracting talents and encouraged young employees to be a part of the company's future. People will stay when they have a sense of belonging," said Liu Jiren, chairman of Neusoft, Shenyang, Liaoning Province.

In general, population growth is often a key indicator of the state of the economy, whereas declining population often signals weak economic conditions. Fresh graduate Haoyan speaks his mind on the economic slowdown.

"I think the reason why many people my age chose to leave the northeast after graduation is that they tend to believe the jobs elsewhere often offer higher salary and faster promotion, but in my opinion, opportunities can be found anywhere if one is willing to seize them," said Qi Haoyan, undergraduate in Shenyang, Liaoning Province.

The legacy of the planned economy remains strong in the three northeastern provinces despite the spread of private enterprise in recent years. Expert thinks this could have pushed people to leave the region seeking employment elsewhere.

"The number of foreign companies and joint-ventures in the region account for only a small portion of the economy. Large SOEs don't seem to learn from these companies about modern human resource management and performance appraisal methods, which are crucial to retaining talent," said Zhang Sining, senior research fellow, Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences.

While the correlation between population outflow and regional economic growth is still a debate, one thing is clear: the change in the growth model and industrial restructuring will help to put the Northeast back to a path of steady growth.

 

[Lux de Veritas]

North East China has a lot of potential and in the long run, depopulation is a good thing for North East China.

The demise of NE China has historical reasons. First, during the Japanese Manchuria time NE China was the 2nd MOST prosperous state in Asia after Japan.

That has breed independence sentiment, which Gao Gang has tried to dabble with, but got shit from central CPC.

The China government after that embark with a plan economy transferring the wealth and resources from NE China to the rest of China.

NE China suffered greatly from the equalization. But equalization also quell the superiority of NE China and their independence sentiment.

Reviving NE China is not difficult given she have a lot of fertile land and resources. The fewer people the better, and wealth could be shared with fewer people. Everything depends on central government policy.

 

[AndrewJin]

The last four months of 2015 will be the harvest season for HSRs in Northwest China.
Hope better transportation can help NE China revive her economy and also attract more tourists.

Red lines = in operation
Blue lines = will open in 2015
And more lines are under construction or will start construction

CRH2G, cold/wind/sand-proof

Harbin West Railway Station, Harbin, capital of Heilongjiang

 

[Lux de Veritas]

I have studied China geography as an amateur. NE China has abundance flat land, low evaparation rate that make it suitable for animal husbandry and industrial agriculture (unfortunately she is not endowed with major rivers other than the Amur that shared with Russia)

The central China has higher evaporation rate. Industrial farming can be enable by water diversion such as SN water transfer.

Finally, Southern China is least suitable for industrial farming due to her mountainous geography.

NE China

Central plains

Southern China

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Northeast has some factors in its favor:

1. lots of established universities per capita (大连理工，吉林大学，哈尔滨工程大学). Western China and select provinces of central China are fked in this respect. The toughest places to go to university in China: Shandong, Henan, Shanxi.
2. proximity to Koreas, Russia and Japan
3. experience in aerospace and heavy industry
4. low population, large land
5. speaks standard Mandarin.

not all northeastern provinces are equal. Liaoning is already pretty well developed due to its proximity with Beijing/Tianjin/Shandong, establishments in Shenyang and the port of Dalian. Jilin and Heilongjiang are not as well developed.

to develop the Northeast:

1. a tunnel connecting Dalian to Yantai would be a HUGE boost in Northeast economy.
2. intercity rails and airports
3. raising the status of northeastern universities.
4. environmental protection and development of sustainable tourism - eliminate coal burning heaters is #1 for this
5. using the large land area, relatively clean air, strong universities and low population density to attract elite people looking for high quality of life away from major metropolitan centers.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

My best and most viable solution:

Unify Korea, if the Koreans agree to kick US troops out of the country.

A region's development has a lot to do with connectivity. Dongbei has the idiots of N Koreans on its South, and vast sparsely populated areas north and west. Once Korea is united, there will be direct train routes from Seoul to Shenyang!

South Korea is already a very major economy. And once united, North will also start developing, and it will serve as a connector for NE China into the wider East Asian Economy.

Today NE China is NOT a part of East Asian Miracle, precisely because it is in what I call the Far Upper East Asia. Far Upper East Asia is a group of regions composed of N Korea, Dongbei, East Siberia, which are not connected to the East Asian Supply Chain.

Once N Korea merges, it will lead to integration of Dongbei in East Asia proper.

 

[AndrewJin]

Northeast has some factors in its favor:

1. lots of established universities per capita (大连理工，吉林大学，哈尔滨工程大学). Western China and select provinces of central China are fked in this respect. The toughest places to go to university in China: Shandong, Henan, Shanxi.
2. proximity to Koreas, Russia and Japan
3. experience in aerospace and heavy industry
4. low population, large land
5. speaks standard Mandarin.

not all northeastern provinces are equal. Liaoning is already pretty well developed due to its proximity with Beijing/Tianjin/Shandong, establishments in Shenyang and the port of Dalian. Jilin and Heilongjiang are not as well developed.

to develop the Northeast:

1. a tunnel connecting Dalian to Yantai would be a HUGE boost in Northeast economy.
2. intercity rails and airports
3. raising the status of northeastern universities.
4. environmental protection and development of sustainable tourism - eliminate coal burning heaters is #1 for this
5. using the large land area, relatively clean air, strong universities and low population density to attract elite people looking for high quality of life away from major metropolitan centers.

Very profound insights,
Her location sometimes is also a hindrance, too close to Beijing.
I think some headquarters of SOEs in Beijing should be relocated to other places including NE China. Tourism is promising of course, the scenery of NE China is top-notch.

My best and most viable solution:

Unify Korea, if the Koreans agree to kick US troops out of the country.

A region's development has a lot to do with connectivity. Dongbei has the idiots of N Koreans on its South, and vast sparsely populated areas north and west. Once Korea is united, there will be direct train routes from Seoul to Shenyang!

South Korea is already a very major economy. And once united, North will also start developing, and it will serve as a connector for NE China into the wider East Asian Economy.

Today NE China is NOT a part of East Asian Miracle, precisely because it is in what I call the Far Upper East Asia. Far Upper East Asia is a group of regions composed of N Korea, Dongbei, East Siberia, which are not connected to the East Asian Supply Chain.

Once N Korea merges, it will lead to integration of Dongbei in East Asia proper.

Thanks for the advises.
But Dongbei(Northeast China) is not connected to East Asian Supply China?
It takes only 4 hours from Beijing to Shenyang by bullet train.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Thanks for the advises.
But Dongbei(Northeast China) is not connected to East Asian Supply China?
It takes only 4 hours from Beijing to Shenyang by bullet train.

It's not only about trains. Its about a host of issues.

Number 1, Shipping. Shipping is by far the most convenient and cheap way of transporting goods. Dongbei doesn't has access to many ports, especially the far eastern dongbei.

Just imagine how much easier it will be when ports are developed in North Korea and nearby.

Number 2 Centrality,

No matter how best you are connected to one place, centrality also matters. Dongbei is connected to economic power house only on south. And that too one has to cross land, and train freight networks have no similar efficiency of shipping.

Imagine if the whole eastern and south eastern frontier presently blocked by Russia and North Korea opens up?

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

My best and most viable solution:

Unify Korea, if the Koreans agree to kick US troops out of the country.

A region's development has a lot to do with connectivity. Dongbei has the idiots of N Koreans on its South, and vast sparsely populated areas north and west. Once Korea is united, there will be direct train routes from Seoul to Shenyang!

South Korea is already a very major economy. And once united, North will also start developing, and it will serve as a connector for NE China into the wider East Asian Economy.

Today NE China is NOT a part of East Asian Miracle, precisely because it is in what I call the Far Upper East Asia. Far Upper East Asia is a group of regions composed of N Korea, Dongbei, East Siberia, which are not connected to the East Asian Supply Chain.

Once N Korea merges, it will lead to integration of Dongbei in East Asia proper.

so basically what you're saying is that Dongbei is not integrated, despite being one of the highest GDP per capita regions in China already and being major suppliers of software services and aerospace parts, and the only way to integrate it is to spend trillions of dollars and a shit ton of political capital, to somehow remove a ruler who isn't a threat but will be if you try to mess with him, for vague promises that can be broken any time.

wow.

 

[badguy2000]

Northeast China has a large heavy-chemical industry base.

China has two main military-industrry bases ,that were set up to sustain the 3rd world war during the cold war.

the primary one is in northeast China, the other is in southwest China( which was set up as the backup once Northeast China were occupied by Soviet Union)


Either of the two bases can produce indenpendently almost all weapons ,form Chip to SHip, from bulliet to missle, form nuke to aircrarft.

 

[AndrewJin]

It's not only about trains. Its about a host of issues.

Number 1, Shipping. Shipping is by far the most convenient and cheap way of transporting goods. Dongbei doesn't has access to many ports, especially the far eastern dongbei.

Just imagine how much easier it will be when ports are developed in North Korea and nearby.

Number 2 Centrality,

No matter how best you are connected to one place, centrality also matters. Dongbei is connected to economic power house only on south. And that too one has to cross land, and train freight networks have no similar efficiency of shipping.

Imagine if the whole eastern and south eastern frontier presently blocked by Russia and North Korea opens up?

I think u were mentioning Midwest? Then whole non-costal regions are doomed to death. Why Shanxi in northeast is also prosperous when most products from there are transported to the sea by railway?

 

[EAsian]

I think u were mentioning Midwest? Then whole non-costal regions are doomed to death. Why Shanxi in northeast is also prosperous when most products from there are transported to the sea by railway?

Yet still，It's a poor province.even poorer than some southeast province.

Northeast China has a large heavy-chemical industry base.

China has two main military-industrry bases ,that were set up to sustain the 3rd world war during the cold war.

the primary one is in northeast China, the other is in southwest China( which was set up as the backup once Northeast China were occupied by Soviet Union)


Either of the two bases can produce indenpendently almost all weapons ,form Chip to SHip, from bulliet to missle, form nuke to aircrarft.

None of the two bases can produce indenpendently almost all weapons ,form Chip to SHip, from bulliet to missle, form nuke to aircrarft.

 

[Lux de Veritas]

It seems to me that Chinese government is interested in aggregating population into 3 mega cities, namely the Pearl River Delta (Guangdong SZ), the Yangtze River Delta (Shanghai environ) and the Beijing/Hebei region. The next tier is Wuhan, Chongqing/Chengdu.

That would mean a depopulation for the rest of the provinces given the low birthrate, and that is a good thing. You cannot have the cake and eat it.