One-dimensional Indians in the Asia-Pacific
I am not a professional think tanker hopping from conference to conference and I would any day prefer solitude to indulge in sweet silent sessions of cogitations with an open unread book on the lap, but somehow found myself cooped up incomprehensibly in the fabulous environs of Shangri-La in Singapore for three days in a ‘workshop’ on Russia and China and how they mate in the choppy waters of the Asia-Pacific and the vast mysterious expanses of Siberia and the Far East. The best part was that It gave a rare expose to thinkers from far and wide — Europe, America, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea and Australia — and there were great conversations over wine and terrific seafood.
But I am returning home feeling bewildered. The point is, neither Russia nor China can be discussed in the sequestered theatre of the Asia-Pacific. By coincidence, only yesterday Russia entrapped Ukraine in friendship — and European politics is not going to be the same again.
Nor is the story of the US’ rebalance in Asia ever quite complete if one ignores that amidst all the cacophony over China’s air defence zone and the risky naval encounter between a Chinese and American boat, US Treasury figures Monday showed that Beijing’s holdings of America’s debt surged past $1.3 trillion for the first time to touch a record figure of $1.44 trillion in October.
To my mind, in strategic terms Russia’s rescue package for Ukraine once again testifies to the fact that Europe is receding into retired life and without the traditional allies to chip in, the US is mostly by itself and feeling increasingly lost. Again, the US, too, did not show the political will to put on the table an offer that would outbid Russia’s — $15 billion dollar financial support, gas supplies at concessional price and preferential access for Ukrainian exports.
Are the Southeastern countries so dumb they can’t comprehend what is going on? Suffice to say, with all the drum beating by Australia or Japan, they know it is with China that they have a special matchless thing going on the economic side. They would be smart enough to know that if Australia whose entire prosperity is virtually linked to the exports of raw materials to the Chinese buyers has an identity crisis to resolve in the developing situation and an existential angst to grapple with over the US’ decline, it is essentially Canberra’s problem.
The amusing part was about Russia in the Asia-Pacific, whose rapidly growing ties with China are driving the Europeans and Americans crazy. All their sustained efforts to drill into the Russian mind the corrosive thought that the Chinese are an inscrutable people do not seem to be working.
On the other hand, there is a contradiction insofar as the Americans are shooting at their own feet by continuing to make life pretty difficult for Russia on the beaches, the landing grounds, in the fields and streets and in the hills (Winston Churchill) — missile defence and NATO expansion, the Arctic, Ukraine, Syria, shale gas, NSA (Edward Snowden’s employer) and so on.
Whereas, common sense would suggest that if China is the problem, then, it is best tackled by co-opting Russia and thereby isolating Russia.
But then, Russia too is the problem and not the solution, as it were, given the fact that no matter the death of communism and the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia is still the only country with the thermo-nuclear capacity to destroy the US at least a dozen times. So, Russia needs to be defanged and cut down to the size of, say, Spain or Portugal.
When life gets tough, the tough get going, don’t they? The US’ missile defence deployments in Japan become a shared concern for Russia and China. (President Vladimir Putin disclosed that Russia is deploying through 2014 at least forty more ultramodern ICBM missiles.) Again, Russia knows that the US Navy’s P-8A Poseidon patrol aircraft being deployed in Japan have the capability to as well hunt down Russian submarines.
Russia is an old practitioner of diplomacy and is savvy enough to play along with Japan’s overtures of the 2+2 (defence and foreign ministers) format, et al, and, of course, Russia genuinely welcomes Japanese investments in Siberia and the Russian Far East. But a settlement of the dispute over the Kurile islands may still have to wait.
Meanwhile, new tensions are appearing over the Arctic. Last week Putin directed the Russian military leadership in Moscow to build up their forces in the Arctic. This followed Canada’s announcement of plans to claim the resource-rich continental shelf under the North Pole. Now, when Canada advances, the US won’t be far behind it. Russia re-opened this summer an old Soviet-era airbase abandoned with the end of the cold war on the Novosibirsk islands in the high Arctic.
These past three days in Singapore convinced me more than ever that China watchers often sound like frogs in the well — blissfully unaware of the US’ missile defence system, never having heard about such a thing called the Arctic on our planet or the latest Chinese offer to “strengthen coordination” with Russia against the backdrop of the upcoming Geneva 2 over Syria and the unspoken Russian-Chinese understanding with regard to the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula.
Suffice to say, without factoring in the huge tremors being felt in world politics, our comprehension of the interplay of the big-power politics in Asia-Pacific remains insufficient.
But the comical part was the quaint notion that was repeatedly aired at the workshop in Singapore that the Indians are an one-dimensional lot who are blindly sold out on the US’ rebalance strategy. Maybe, Singapore interacts only with one-dimensional Indians, or, perhaps, as part of the psywar on China, it helps to create such a misperception. But the beauty of the strategic ambiguity in Delhi’s stance has been best expressed in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s recent words that the elaborate pantomime being played out in the Asia-Pacific ultimately aims at “shaping the behaviour of major powers” — nothing more, nothing less.
I am not a professional think tanker hopping from conference to conference and I would any day prefer solitude to indulge in sweet silent sessions of cogitations with an open unread book on the lap, but somehow found myself cooped up incomprehensibly in the fabulous environs of Shangri-La in Singapore for three days in a ‘workshop’ on Russia and China and how they mate in the choppy waters of the Asia-Pacific and the vast mysterious expanses of Siberia and the Far East. The best part was that It gave a rare expose to thinkers from far and wide — Europe, America, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea and Australia — and there were great conversations over wine and terrific seafood.
But I am returning home feeling bewildered. The point is, neither Russia nor China can be discussed in the sequestered theatre of the Asia-Pacific. By coincidence, only yesterday Russia entrapped Ukraine in friendship — and European politics is not going to be the same again.
Nor is the story of the US’ rebalance in Asia ever quite complete if one ignores that amidst all the cacophony over China’s air defence zone and the risky naval encounter between a Chinese and American boat, US Treasury figures Monday showed that Beijing’s holdings of America’s debt surged past $1.3 trillion for the first time to touch a record figure of $1.44 trillion in October.
To my mind, in strategic terms Russia’s rescue package for Ukraine once again testifies to the fact that Europe is receding into retired life and without the traditional allies to chip in, the US is mostly by itself and feeling increasingly lost. Again, the US, too, did not show the political will to put on the table an offer that would outbid Russia’s — $15 billion dollar financial support, gas supplies at concessional price and preferential access for Ukrainian exports.
Are the Southeastern countries so dumb they can’t comprehend what is going on? Suffice to say, with all the drum beating by Australia or Japan, they know it is with China that they have a special matchless thing going on the economic side. They would be smart enough to know that if Australia whose entire prosperity is virtually linked to the exports of raw materials to the Chinese buyers has an identity crisis to resolve in the developing situation and an existential angst to grapple with over the US’ decline, it is essentially Canberra’s problem.
The amusing part was about Russia in the Asia-Pacific, whose rapidly growing ties with China are driving the Europeans and Americans crazy. All their sustained efforts to drill into the Russian mind the corrosive thought that the Chinese are an inscrutable people do not seem to be working.
On the other hand, there is a contradiction insofar as the Americans are shooting at their own feet by continuing to make life pretty difficult for Russia on the beaches, the landing grounds, in the fields and streets and in the hills (Winston Churchill) — missile defence and NATO expansion, the Arctic, Ukraine, Syria, shale gas, NSA (Edward Snowden’s employer) and so on.
Whereas, common sense would suggest that if China is the problem, then, it is best tackled by co-opting Russia and thereby isolating Russia.
But then, Russia too is the problem and not the solution, as it were, given the fact that no matter the death of communism and the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia is still the only country with the thermo-nuclear capacity to destroy the US at least a dozen times. So, Russia needs to be defanged and cut down to the size of, say, Spain or Portugal.
When life gets tough, the tough get going, don’t they? The US’ missile defence deployments in Japan become a shared concern for Russia and China. (President Vladimir Putin disclosed that Russia is deploying through 2014 at least forty more ultramodern ICBM missiles.) Again, Russia knows that the US Navy’s P-8A Poseidon patrol aircraft being deployed in Japan have the capability to as well hunt down Russian submarines.
Russia is an old practitioner of diplomacy and is savvy enough to play along with Japan’s overtures of the 2+2 (defence and foreign ministers) format, et al, and, of course, Russia genuinely welcomes Japanese investments in Siberia and the Russian Far East. But a settlement of the dispute over the Kurile islands may still have to wait.
Meanwhile, new tensions are appearing over the Arctic. Last week Putin directed the Russian military leadership in Moscow to build up their forces in the Arctic. This followed Canada’s announcement of plans to claim the resource-rich continental shelf under the North Pole. Now, when Canada advances, the US won’t be far behind it. Russia re-opened this summer an old Soviet-era airbase abandoned with the end of the cold war on the Novosibirsk islands in the high Arctic.
These past three days in Singapore convinced me more than ever that China watchers often sound like frogs in the well — blissfully unaware of the US’ missile defence system, never having heard about such a thing called the Arctic on our planet or the latest Chinese offer to “strengthen coordination” with Russia against the backdrop of the upcoming Geneva 2 over Syria and the unspoken Russian-Chinese understanding with regard to the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula.
Suffice to say, without factoring in the huge tremors being felt in world politics, our comprehension of the interplay of the big-power politics in Asia-Pacific remains insufficient.
But the comical part was the quaint notion that was repeatedly aired at the workshop in Singapore that the Indians are an one-dimensional lot who are blindly sold out on the US’ rebalance strategy. Maybe, Singapore interacts only with one-dimensional Indians, or, perhaps, as part of the psywar on China, it helps to create such a misperception. But the beauty of the strategic ambiguity in Delhi’s stance has been best expressed in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s recent words that the elaborate pantomime being played out in the Asia-Pacific ultimately aims at “shaping the behaviour of major powers” — nothing more, nothing less.
