Not Possible to Industrialize Like China

[ohmrlobalobayeh]

I think China is now working on the step 4 and laying the ground work for the step 5.

atually a nation can prosper based on services alone.

Singapore and Switzerland(lack of manfuacturing, lack of heavy- even lack of agricultural industries. We even have to import our water from Malaysia across a pipeline)are the prime examples- international banking + R& D centres.

But why couldnt India do it?

answer: High Education investment and Infrastructure. A highly-educated workforce with developed amenities.

 

[TaiShang]

atually a nation can prosper based on services alone.

Singapore and Switzerland)lack of manfuacturing, lack of heavy- even lack of agricultural industries. We even have to import our water from Malaysia across a pipeline)are the prime examples- international banking + R& D centres.

But why couldnt India do it?

answer: High Education investment. A highly-educated workforce,

I think India is too blessed with population dividend to rely on services only and develop meaningfully. Small countries (and regions like Taiwan) can identify certain areas and, through smart government leadership, can build up progressive, income and employment generating service industries. But, difficult to impossible for India to achieve that: First, they have immense (and uneducated, low-skilled) population; and second, they are not known for their efficiency in public governance.

 

[ohmrlobalobayeh]

I think India is too blessed with population dividend to rely on services only and develop meaningfully. Small countries (and regions like Taiwan) can identify certain areas and, through smart government leadership, can build up progressive, income and employment generating service industries. But, difficult to impossible for India to achieve that: First, they have immense (and uneducated, low-skilled) population; and second, they are not known for their efficiency in public governance.

oh n i wanna add in:

ironically and despite having a high level of english proficiency(why im bilingual myself), singapore do not have a call centre industry <=== lol


*ps in fact, i think i've mentioned b4 somewhere in this forum that our postal services even outsourced its call centre contracts to India

 

[rambro]

Call center/shared service center/low cost service center whatever they call it is not a stable industry.

Commonly move to another country in 5 years or so.

 

[antonius123]

atually a nation can prosper based on services alone.

Singapore and Switzerland(lack of manfuacturing, lack of heavy- even lack of agricultural industries. We even have to import our water from Malaysia across a pipeline)are the prime examples- international banking + R& D centres.

But why couldnt India do it?

answer: High Education investment and Infrastructure. A highly-educated workforce with developed amenities.

Singapore and Switzerland are small countries and unique.

Singapore is blessed to be there among SEA countries with natural resources and their problems.
Singapore and Switzerland can obtain devisa by exporting their services or tourist. Both countries used to be depending on manufacturing as well.

Huge countries like India cannot depend on devisa from exporting services or tourist alone to propel economic growth.

 

[TaiShang]

and the latter one is even worse, do you know India is paying the highest interest rate around 8% to those Dollar and Euro lenders world wide? they are basically raping India off, well it is India to blame, as it has no leverage in negociation and India international creditability is very bad! (ask any traders they will tell you the truth)

This may explain why the US and the likes wish (and manage) to lure India into false and fake concepts such as anti-China Indo-Pacific, which helps perpetuate the lender/borrower condition at the disadvantage of India.

While they put out badly painted expensive military systems with lots of foreign content, SP12 has to pay for it in borrowed money to be later paid for with a heavy interest.

 

[Sh@msu]

I think India is too blessed with population dividend to rely on services only and develop meaningfully. Small countries (and regions like Taiwan) can identify certain areas and, through smart government leadership, can build up progressive, income and employment generating service industries. But, difficult to impossible for India to achieve that: First, they have immense (and uneducated, low-skilled) population; and second, they are not known for their efficiency in public governance.

too much democracy,Time is over in exchanging opinion for doing anything rather than actually doing anything.you will find every people having their own opinion there,having opinion is not the problem,but wasting days defending that opinion is what they actually do.
I do not see they are doing good.the bulk of youth has already arrived.but proper infra is not in place,now their population will increase to a danger level(already 450 per sqr km).
They should have been prepared for this youth,putting proper infras in place and train them,could have been a huge human capital,but they missed it.

 

[Thanatos]

None of the countries in South Asia can claim that they are developing rapidly. But the problem with India is , on one hand they are poor on the other side if you watch their media it shows completely different story. It portrays india as an emerging super power, which is far from reality. They spend half their time bashing Pakistan and China.
There are problems in Pakistan, but indian media magnifies them . They look down on all their neighbours. This is the attitude that is sickening. The arrogance that indians have , will eventually damage themselves. The fact that they are delusional is because they have been kept in darkness by their paid media which is controlled by government and military establishment.

 

[MultaniGuy]

India is no match for China.
This is something everyone knows.

 

[Dungeness]

The reasons that India can't industrialize like China are multi-folds:

1. Historically, Indians are traders but not craftsman. They don't have the tradition of mass manufacturing.

2. Socially, they subconsciously avoid any manual work including manufacturing, as the manual work are usually associated with lower castes in India society.

3. Culturally, Indians in general lack the strong desire/drive to improve their material life, which propelled Chinese to create the biggest social development in human history. It is in part due to their religiously believings.

4. Economically, there is a disconnection between the social elites from "First India" and the ground reality of "Second India". Indian elites believe their genetic connection and "shared values" will somehow take India to "developed country status". IT and service sectors gives them a sense of equality to their counterpart in West developed countries, but manufacturing, which could have benefited masses, is viewed as something that belongs to "lowly developing countries". Hence their economic policy in 90's and 00's.

Until India as a country reforms/revolutionizes its culture, mindset and social structure, we will not see the nation transformation in India that we've witnessed in China.

 

[randomradio]

China's economic growth for 2017 was 6.8% and India's was 6.7%. That means both economies are doing well, right? Not quite.

Firstly, India's population is growing. About 1% of India's economic growth comes solely from population growth, which is not sustainable. Indian cities are already overcrowded.

Secondly, the quality of the growth means India will hit a wall economically.

Take a look at Forbe's chart of China's and India's top export categories (see below).

China's top export categories are computers, telecommunications equipment, telephones, integrated circuits, and light fixtures (LEDs?). These are high value-added products.

China is expanding into consumer and military drones, computer memory chips (3D NAND and DRAM), passenger jet aircraft, industrial robots, AI, self-driving cars, electric vehicles, etc. These are also high-value products.

China's future economic expansion makes a lot of sense and it's all high-tech.

However, India's top export categories are refined petroleum, diamonds, jewelry, packaged medicines, and automobiles. Aside from automobiles (or is it really auto parts?), there is no place for India to go. Indian exports are mostly low-tech with no room for expansion. For example, diamonds and jewelry are not scalable (which is very different from computer DRAM chips).

In conclusion, while India may grow economically at 6.7% for a few more years, it will eventually slam into an immovable economic wall. There is limited demand for diamonds and jewelry. This phenomenon is typically called the "low income trap" or the "middle income trap."
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India Will Outgrow China In 2018, But Must Invest In Next-Generation Value Chains To Succeed | Forbes (January 2, 2018)

"The real long-term challenge for India isn't the size of its exports, but the structure of its exports.
...
To see India's challenge, just look at its top export industries: petrochemicals and jewelry....India's second big export industry is finished jewelry, which like petrochemicals is a one-time value-add play with no potential to power real economic transformation.
...
It is difficult to see how India could break into -- let alone climb -- the kinds of major global value chains that could bring truly transformative economic growth."

Interestingly, all forecasts from all major international institutions say India will surpass China in GDP by 2050.

Indian automobile exports are extremely low end. Basically tin boxes with no AC and airbags.

http://www.autocarpro.in/analysis-reports/india-surpasses-china-passenger-car-exports-20224
India has beaten China in passenger car exports for the fiscal year 2015-16. According to numbers collated from SIAM statistics, Indian passenger car exports for FY2016 totaled 532,053 units. This was higher than Chinese passenger car exports for the fiscal – 409,800 units – which were recorded by the China Association Of Automobile Manufacturers. Complementing this data is the 2015 Forbes 2000 list of the world’s largest car exporting countries which lists India as the 20th largest exporter in the world compared to China, which sits at the 22nd position.

I think the Indian strategy is rational.

India will never beat Huawei in telecommunications equipment. In fact, Huawei outcompeted Ericsson.

India will never beat DJI in consumer drones. GoPro lost to DJI.

Alibaba beat Ebay in China.

Didi Chuxing beat Uber in China.

India is smart to stay out of China's way. It would be a losing battle. The problem is India has not distinguished itself in software. It has to fight IBM, Oracle, and Microsoft.

Whether it's China in hardware or the US in software, India has a big problem. How do you compete against the world's two most competitive economies? I'm not sure there's an answer to this dilemma.

You didn't compete with anybody, you simply kicked them out.

The reasons that India can't industrialize like China are multi-folds:

1. Historically, Indians are traders but not craftsman. They don't have the tradition of mass manufacturing.

2. Socially, they subconsciously avoid any manual work including manufacturing, as the manual work are usually associated with lower castes in India society.

3. Culturally, Indians in general lack the strong desire/drive to improve their material life, which propelled Chinese to create the biggest social development in human history. It is in part due to their religiously believings.

4. Economically, there is a disconnection between the social elites from "First India" and the ground reality of "Second India". Indian elites believe their genetic connection and "shared values" will somehow take India to "developed country status". IT and service sectors gives them a sense of equality to their counterpart in West developed countries, but manufacturing, which could have benefited masses, is viewed as something that belongs to "lowly developing countries". Hence their economic policy in 90's and 00's.

Until India as a country reforms/revolutionizes its culture, mindset and social structure, we will not see the nation transformation in India that we've witnessed in China.

You don't know anything about India or India's history.

 

[Martian2]

Interestingly, all forecasts from all major international institutions say India will surpass China in GDP by 2050.

Any moron can draw a straight-line projection 30 years into the future. Look at my graph. India grows at 6.5% for 30 years. India's GDP is bigger than China's in 2050!! This is called stupidity.

China's massive economy is based on high-tech products and new high-tech industries. China exports $2 trillion of manufactured goods every year.

India's economy is based on exporting diamonds and jewelry. India CANNOT sell $2 trillion of diamonds and jewelry per year. Global demand for diamonds and jewelry is very limited. This means India has NO ECONOMIC FUTURE. Hence, my argument of the "low income" or "middle-income" trap for India.

I'm arguing that India will hit an economic wall and Indian 6.5% economic growth is not sustainable.

 

[Dungeness]

You don't know anything about India or India's history.

The people who don't know about India are the ones who predicted India a Superpower by 2012.

 

[randomradio]

Any moron can draw a straight-line projection 30 years into the future. Look at my graph. India grows at 6.5% for 30 years. India's GDP is bigger than China's in 2050!! This is called stupidity.

China's massive economy is based on high-tech products and new high-tech industries. India's economy is based on exporting diamonds and jewelry. India has NO ECONOMIC FUTURE. Hence, my argument of the "low income" or "middle-income" trap for India.

I'm arguing that India will hit an economic wall and Indian 6.5% economic growth is not sustainable.

India's low growth (only for this financial year) is due to temporarily punishing and radical reforms. Anybody with a basic degree in high school economics will tell you that. We withdrew all our cash, our cash flow came to a standstill and we are still growing at more than 6%. What does that tell you?

If you could read the only link I posted, you will notice that it says India exports more cars than China does. Just because you assemble piecemeal western stuff or make piddly stuff doesn't mean anything. Haven't you seen our pharma exports either?

Don't fool yourself. China is not a high tech exporter. You don't even beat India in car and pharma exports let alone the actual high tech exporting nations. All you do is assemble some iphones and computers, which we have started doing as well. Mental masturbation is all well and good, but it only works in your head.

India won't face a middle income trap, the economy is primarily running on services. Services keeps growing. It's countries like yours that have to transition from a cheap goods factory to the services industry that have to worry about the middle income trap. India has no economic wall. We will simply start delivering higher quality services very quickly, which we have already started doing with analytics and big data.

We are coming to train you in IT.
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-pape...na-students-on-‘Big-Data’/article14380036.ece

The Chinese govt wants Indian companies in the Big Data Valley.
https://analyticsindiamag.com/china-encourages-indian-companies-invest-big-data-pilot-zone/

And then, have you even seen how much data the Indian public consumes today?

Otoh, China's GDP is set to slow drastically the next decade. No more 5%+ growth once the population wall hits. India will grow 3-4 times faster than China will over the next 3 decades and will continue growing by at least 2 times after that. That's why all global experts are saying India will surpass China's GDP by 2050.

The people who don't know about India are the ones who predicted India a Superpower by 2012.

No one predicted anything. Only High IQ Chinese jumping up and down over nothing.

 

[Dungeness]

No one predicted anything. Only High IQ Chinese jumping up and down over nothing.

Liar!

"Though I have envisioned India to become a superpower by 2020, the attitude and the confidence of the youth, to conquer everything in the right spirit, would make the country a global leader and super power within five years," Kalam told reporters.

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