Not napping on NAP

[RescueRanger]

I decided to create this thread because since the attack on Bacha Khan university there has been talk of how does one measure the tangible gains of the national action plan on terrorism see: http://www.dawn.com/news/1234992/reviewing-nap

NAP has been on the discussion table before, see: http://www.dawn.com/news/1229012

Furthermore analysts have dissected "Zarb-E-Azb" and the Ranger operation in Sindh too, along with a host of security plans for schools and educational institutions in Pakistan. [1]

That being said the discussion of NAP and it's pro's and con's are beyond the scope of my opening thread. What I aim to do is present information (Open Source) in a easily digestible manner for readers to absorb, analyses and than critique if need be.

The overall review will cover the current dynamics moving on from December 2015 - January 2016 and will include a breakdown of a number of issues


Point 1: Is NAP working:

Terrorist Attacks 2014:

Terrorist Attacks 2015:

Recorded Terrorism Incidents: 2015 - Pakistan Security Situation Report

You will notice a dramatic decrease of recorded incidents of terrorism throughout all parts of Pakistan with the exception of the 1 incident spike in GB. This not only reinforces the suggestion that NAP is heading in the right direction, it also supports that opinion that the Ranger operations in Karachi were a dramatic success, see: http://tribune.com.pk/story/941494/pm-nawaz-arrives-in-karachi-for-one-day-visit/

Terrorism by it's very nature appeals to the sensational media around the world driving "TV ratings" and viewers to the said channel, who can blame them in this information driven age, whoever has the edge in information wins. However as you will see from the graph below, terrorism related incidents only represent a small number of responses vs the mundane daily occurrences that go unnoticed such as a car crash or building fire (more on this later).

Numbers of incidents attended by Rescue 1122 from 2004 - 2016​

Point 2: Targeting terrorism, targets crime and both destabilise our country.

Since the start of the war on terrorism, Pakistan witnessed a number of changes, one of the major changes that came about as a result of 9/11 was the change in Pakistan's internal security posture, one which would alter and alienate the very environment around us in the coming months and years.

2001 onwards saw a massive influx of multinational executives, logistics companies, NGOs, Government functionaries, foreign military, press and corporate sector types flood into Pakistan. At one point the housing in Islamabad was so saturated with demand that price of an average rented house in sector F8 went from $400 to $1500/$2000.

The prevalent lack of infrastructure and trust deficit between the public and law enforcement coupled with the rise in crime, insecurity and terrorism gave entrepreneurial minded ex military officers they idea of taking the traditional role of a Chowkidar and throwing in a few bells and whistles and this led to birth to the Private security industry.

In 2000 the Ministry of Interior pushed through "THE PRIVATE SECURITY COMPANIES ORDINANCE, 2001" Which was adopted in in Punjab, KPK and Sindh in 2002 "The Private Security Companies Ordinance-2002" Available to read here: http://www.defencejournal.com/2002/sept/private_security.htm

As the years passed, the dynamics of threat shifted and companies developed new and more innovative methods to capitalise on the insecurity of the masses, rapidly growing to around an estimated $60 Million US, that is one big pie.

At it's peak in 2011 Pakistan was host to the Who's Who of International Private security, however following the arrest of armed US contractors in Islamabad, Lahore and Peshawar, the government proposed the Foreign Security Agencies Act, along with greater scrutiny of foreign PSCs in the country: http://www.na.gov.pk/uploads/documen...318855_132.pdf

This subsequently led to heads rolling and the first on the chopping block was a Pakistan outfit InterRisk which closely followed by a major player Pax Mondial. After several complaints lodged by the security services, Paxmondial's Pakistan office was forcibly closed at the hands of the Securities & Exchange Commission:
http://www.secp.gov.pk/orders/pdf/or...L_PAKISTAN.PDF

Not soon after the closure of Pax Mondial's Pakistan Office, several larger companies decided to pack up and leave due to the hostile posture adopted by the state intelligence apparatus and rigid corporate regulations:

US security contractors survive, UK firms pack up | Latest news, Breaking news, Pakistan News, World news, business, sport and multimedia | DAWN.COM

Since then G4S has decided to sell off its Pakistani operations to it's partner Pakistani partner Wackenhut Pvt Limited.

Source: G4S Pakistan buyout to be done in two weeks – The Express Tribune

At present the only three FSA's operating in Pakistan under permit are:

Dynacorp ( State Department & Government of PakistanContracts)
Catalyst Services LLC ( Providing construction and Life Support Services to the US diplomatic mission in Pakistan).
KSI Sallyport LLC

In addition to the above please read #7 for a full breakdown of how international non state actors impact our national security. Also see: http://pakconnects.blogspot.co.uk/2012/01/german-intelligence-cell-busted-in.html

Coming back to the subject of NAP. The operation in Karachi and the NAP go hand in hand to help improve public safety and the overall security outlook for the entire country, it is no secret that certain crime outfits fund and promote terrorism, see: http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=247792

Crime Statistics of Pakistan: 2015 - Pakistan Statistics Bureau

Source: http://www.dawn.com/news/1229193

There is a saying, no action from the top is effective unless it has people who are willing to carry it forward to ensure sustainable results and ultimately that has to include public buy in, points 4/5/6 of the national action plan dealing with issues such as restricting funding of terrorist groups, countering hate speech are only effective if the public engage in countering narratives at a grassroots level.

Furthermore security is never 100%, to quote US President Barrack Obama "We cannot continue to rely only on our military in order to achieve the national security objectives that we've set. We've got to have a civilian national security force that's just as powerful, just as strong, just as well-funded."

This includes school management, parents, communities, employers and members of the public playing their part, despite the tragic and heart wrenching incident of APS would it shock the readers to know that many schools continued to drag their feet on security school premises post APS, despite government notices for strengthening school security such as: Punjab, Home department issued notice NO.SO (IS-11) 3-3/09/2014.

In September 2015, the Sindh High Court initiated contempt of court proceedings against Education secretary for non compliance to a court order: http://tribune.com.pk/story/952542/...-proceedings-sought-in-schools-security-case/

Is it any surprise now that according to an audit conducted on the 28th of January 2015, 80% of the 20,000 schools and educational institutions in Karachi lacked adequate security measures as required under the security plan designed by the Sindh Government.

In closing, as is clearly evident, the government of Pakistan especially the military and law enforcement agencies have made huge sacrifices to help reduce terrorism, insecurity and instability. As a nation we should be looking at what role we can play at a grassroots level to make NAP a success and ensure the safety and security of our nation as whole, to read more on what actions communities can take please read: https://defence.pk/threads/safe-schools-its-up-to-us.418990/#post-8102246

Sources:
[1]
http://tribune.com.pk/story/927539/...easures-at-schools-shc-tells-chief-secretary/
http://tribune.com.pk/story/967921/...thorities-to-ensure-private-schools-security/
http://tribune.com.pk/story/952542/...-proceedings-sought-in-schools-security-case/


@WebMaster @Jango @WAJsal @Irfan Baloch @AgNoStiC MuSliM @Abu Zolfiqar

 

[WAJsal]

I decided to create this thread because since the attack on Bacha Khan university there has been talk of how does one measure the tangible gains of the national action plan on terrorism see: http://www.dawn.com/news/1234992/reviewing-nap

NAP has been on the discussion table before, see: http://www.dawn.com/news/1229012

Furthermore analysts have dissected "Zarb-E-Azb" and the Ranger operation in Sindh too, along with a host of security plans for schools and educational institutions in Pakistan. [1]

That being said the discussion of NAP and it's pro's and con's are beyond the scope of my opening thread. What I aim to do is present information (Open Source) in a easily digestible manner for readers to absorb, analyses and than critique if need be.

The overall review will cover the current dynamics moving on from December 2015 - January 2016 and will include a breakdown of a number of issues


Point 1: Is NAP working:

Terrorist Attacks 2014:

Terrorist Attacks 2015:

Recorded Terrorism Incidents: 2015 - Pakistan Security Situation Report

You will notice a dramatic decrease of recorded incidents of terrorism throughout all parts of Pakistan with the exception of the 1 incident spike in GB. This not only reinforces the suggestion that NAP is heading in the right direction, it also supports that opinion that the Ranger operations in Karachi were a dramatic success, see: http://tribune.com.pk/story/941494/pm-nawaz-arrives-in-karachi-for-one-day-visit/

Terrorism by it's very nature appeals to the sensational media around the world driving "TV ratings" and viewers to the said channel, who can blame them in this information driven age, whoever has the edge in information wins. However as you will see from the graph below, terrorism related incidents only represent a small number of responses vs the mundane daily occurrences that go unnoticed such as a car crash or building fire (more on this later).

Numbers of incidents attended by Rescue 1122 from 2004 - 2016​

Point 2: Targeting terrorism, targets crime and both destabilise our country.

Since the start of the war on terrorism, Pakistan witnessed a number of changes, one of the major changes that came about as a result of 9/11 was the change in Pakistan's internal security posture, one which would alter and alienate the very environment around us in the coming months and years.

2001 onwards saw a massive influx of multinational executives, logistics companies, NGOs, Government functionaries, foreign military, press and corporate sector types flood into Pakistan. At one point the housing in Islamabad was so saturated with demand that price of an average rented house in sector F8 went from $400 to $1500/$2000.

The prevalent lack of infrastructure and trust deficit between the public and law enforcement coupled with the rise in crime, insecurity and terrorism gave entrepreneurial minded ex military officers they idea of taking the traditional role of a Chowkidar and throwing in a few bells and whistles and this led to birth to the Private security industry.

In 2000 the Ministry of Interior pushed through "THE PRIVATE SECURITY COMPANIES ORDINANCE, 2001" Which was adopted in in Punjab, KPK and Sindh in 2002 "The Private Security Companies Ordinance-2002" Available to read here: http://www.defencejournal.com/2002/sept/private_security.htm

As the years passed, the dynamics of threat shifted and companies developed new and more innovative methods to capitalise on the insecurity of the masses, rapidly growing to around an estimated $60 Million US, that is one big pie.

At it's peak in 2011 Pakistan was host to the Who's Who of International Private security, however following the arrest of armed US contractors in Islamabad, Lahore and Peshawar, the government proposed the Foreign Security Agencies Act, along with greater scrutiny of foreign PSCs in the country: http://www.na.gov.pk/uploads/documen...318855_132.pdf

This subsequently led to heads rolling and the first on the chopping block was a Pakistan outfit InterRisk which closely followed by a major player Pax Mondial. After several complaints lodged by the security services, Paxmondial's Pakistan office was forcibly closed at the hands of the Securities & Exchange Commission:
http://www.secp.gov.pk/orders/pdf/or...L_PAKISTAN.PDF

Not soon after the closure of Pax Mondial's Pakistan Office, several larger companies decided to pack up and leave due to the hostile posture adopted by the state intelligence apparatus and rigid corporate regulations:

US security contractors survive, UK firms pack up | Latest news, Breaking news, Pakistan News, World news, business, sport and multimedia | DAWN.COM

Since then G4S has decided to sell off its Pakistani operations to it's partner Pakistani partner Wackenhut Pvt Limited.

Source: G4S Pakistan buyout to be done in two weeks – The Express Tribune

At present the only three FSA's operating in Pakistan under permit are:

Dynacorp ( State Department & Government of PakistanContracts)
Catalyst Services LLC ( Providing construction and Life Support Services to the US diplomatic mission in Pakistan).
KSI Sallyport LLC

In addition to the above please read #7 for a full breakdown of how international non state actors impact our national security. Also see: http://pakconnects.blogspot.co.uk/2012/01/german-intelligence-cell-busted-in.html

Coming back to the subject of NAP. The operation in Karachi and the NAP go hand in hand to help improve public safety and the overall security outlook for the entire country, it is no secret that certain crime outfits fund and promote terrorism, see: http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=247792

Crime Statistics of Pakistan: 2015 - Pakistan Statistics Bureau

Source: http://www.dawn.com/news/1229193

There is a saying, no action from the top is effective unless it has people who are willing to carry it forward to ensure sustainable results and ultimately that has to include public buy in, points 4/5/6 of the national action plan dealing with issues such as restricting funding of terrorist groups, countering hate speech are only effective if the public engage in countering narratives at a grassroots level.

Furthermore security is never 100%, to quote US President Barrack Obama "We cannot continue to rely only on our military in order to achieve the national security objectives that we've set. We've got to have a civilian national security force that's just as powerful, just as strong, just as well-funded."

This includes school management, parents, communities, employers and members of the public playing their part, despite the tragic and heart wrenching incident of APS would it shock the readers to know that many schools continued to drag their feet on security school premises post APS, despite government notices for strengthening school security such as: Punjab, Home department issued notice NO.SO (IS-11) 3-3/09/2014.

In September 2015, the Sindh High Court initiated contempt of court proceedings against Education secretary for non compliance to a court order: http://tribune.com.pk/story/952542/...-proceedings-sought-in-schools-security-case/

Is it any surprise now that according to an audit conducted on the 28th of January 2015, 80% of the 20,000 schools and educational institutions in Karachi lacked adequate security measures as required under the security plan designed by the Sindh Government.

In closing, as is clearly evident, the government of Pakistan especially the military and law enforcement agencies have made huge sacrifices to help reduce terrorism, insecurity and instability. As a nation we should be looking at what role we can play at a grassroots level to make NAP a success and ensure the safety and security of our nation as whole, to read more on what actions communities can take please read: https://defence.pk/threads/safe-schools-its-up-to-us.418990/#post-8102246

Sources:
[1]
http://tribune.com.pk/story/927539/...easures-at-schools-shc-tells-chief-secretary/
http://tribune.com.pk/story/967921/...thorities-to-ensure-private-schools-security/
http://tribune.com.pk/story/952542/...-proceedings-sought-in-schools-security-case/


@WebMaster @Jango @WAJsal @Irfan Baloch @AgNoStiC MuSliM @Abu Zolfiqar

No one denies the fact that there has been a change as far as terrorist attack is concerned, since Zarb-e-azb has started. The real problem lies with following the whole of NAP, interior minister himself has confessed that work has been slow as far as some points are concerned, let me make a mention of them:

1. Implementation of death sentence of those convicted in cases of terrorism.
2. Special trial courts under the supervision of Army. The duration of these courts would be two years.
3. Militant outfits and armed gangs will not be allowed to operate in the country.
4. NACTA, the anti-terrorism institution will be strengthened.
5. Strict action against the literature, newspapers and magazines promoting hatred, decapitation, extremism, sectarianism and intolerance.
6. All funding sources of terrorists and terrorist outfits will be frozen.
7. The defunct outfits will not be allowed to operate under any other name.
8. Establishing and deploying a dedicated counter-terrorism force.
9. End to religious extremism and protection of minorities will be ensured.
10. Registration and regulation of religious seminaries.
11. Ban on glorification of terrorists and terrorist organisations through print and electronic media.
12. Administrative and development reforms in FATA with immediate focus on repatriation of IDPs.
13. Communication network of terrorists will be dismantled completely.
14. Concrete measures against promotion of terrorism through internet and
social media.
15. No room will be left for the extremism in any part of the country.
16. Ongoing operation in Karachi will be taken to its logical end.
17. Balochistan government to be fully empowered for political reconciliation with complete ownership by all stakeholders.
18. Action against elements spreading sectarianism.
19. Formulation of a comprehensive policy to deal with the issue of Afghan refugees, beginning with registration of all refugees.
20. Reforms in criminal courts system to strengthen the anti-terrorism institutions including provincial CIDs.

Number 4, 6, 7, 10, 12, 18, 19, 20, are a direct responsibility of the federal government, or cal it political leadership. Anyone can tell that it is not being worked on, as well as it could be, let me do a comprehensive analysis:

4. NACTA, the anti-terrorism institution will be strengthened; is NACTA a operational institute? last i heard funds have yet to be allocated for it.

6. All funding sources of terrorists and terrorist outfits will be frozen; this is one of the points you can say Rangers or other LEA are working to tackle, militants collect funds through Bhata, collecting Chanda, Skins, kidnapping; a major source of funding is through political parties too, it is a well-known fact. This responsibility comes under the Federal government, which has failed to fully take it seriously. Though the work on it is satisfactory enough, though not enough.

7. The defunct outfits will not be allowed to operate under any other name; i don't even have to elaborate on it. No comprehensive strategy to tackle this issue. another one makes the list.

10. Registration and regulation of religious seminaries; Enough programs have been done on it, don't even have to elaborate, some work on it has been satisfactory, but who are we kidding, right?

12. Administrative and development reforms in FATA with immediate focus on repatriation of IDPs; A committee is formed to work on it, in my opinion work is too slow on reforming FATA. You can argue that some wish to keep the present status.

18. Action against elements spreading sectarianism; We have a Mullah Burkah in our capital spreading hate, sectarianism, and our government is literally scared to take action against him. Kills the whole debate itself.

19. Formulation of a comprehensive policy to deal with the issue of Afghan refugees, beginning with registration of all refugees; Yeah right? what progress has been done on this.

20. Reforms in criminal courts system to strengthen the anti-terrorism institutions including provincial CIDs; This is just embarrassing. Again no work on it.

Conclusion
We can't simply take terrorists out through Zarb-e-azb, we need to tackle their mentality, we need the support of religious scholars, we need political parties to be serious about it. Federal and provincial governments are not serious about NAP, i would not agree with you, we are napping on NAP. We fight about Rangers powers every other day, political parties look to work for their interest.

@Icarus , @HRK , can provide a better analysis on this topic.

regards

@Neutron

 

[Shah01]

Good read RescueRanger.

We can't simply take terrorists out through Zarb-e-azb, we need to tackle their mentality, we need the support of religious scholars, we need political parties to be serious about it. Federal and provincial governments are not serious about NAP, i would not agree with you, we are napping on NAP. We fight about Rangers powers every other day, political parties look to work for their interest.

Good detailed analysis WAJsal. I will agree with the above conclusion especially the bold part. If I may highlight a few things which I think will make the operation difficult to complete.
The demographic of Pakistan is very complex. Pakistanis are divided into provinces, languages, sects, political affiliation, tribes etc. We also have religious divide, Shiite and Sunni (but living in peace). Sunnis are further divided into many sects. it is perfectly fine to have such division in societies except there is one big element missing in our society and that is tolerance.
People from one group/sect are unable to tolerate a different group/sect. People are unable to respect someone else's opinion. This happens almost at every level (be it province/religious/sect).
Furthermore I will argue that this mentality has been there for decades and it will take a life time to eradicate/change. This can only be achieved by educating the masses with religious knowledge and modern sciences. The key would be to teach tolerance. To make them think critically and learn from differences in the society and sects. Learn and work together and use this knowledge for the betterment of country and mankind.

The western societies started to progress and excel when they stopped fighting each other and started to learn from each others differences. They started to think critically and apply the knowledge gained for their future generations. This whole knowledge base/critical thinking did not come in a day/year. It took them generations to get to this point.
If we think one Zarb-e-Azb is going to fix our problems than we are living in a fairy land. I don't expect much to change till the next generation takes over. It takes a long time to dilute the way people think and act. I hope we prepare our next generation with better knowledge, ability to think critically and tolerance.

 

[ghazi52]

..............................

.

..