No free lunches for USA anymore!

[nahtanbob]

Even USA wont need BD... I do not hate BD as its our friend country but I am just purely talking by looking at geography.... Don't know why some members here have this delusion of strategic importance of BD. Take a look of this BoB map.... If USA opens up bases in BD then it will be cornered up to the north of BoB in small territory like BD where they will be highly vulnerable to supersonic missile attacks and even HIMARS type of Chinese rocket artillery from Myanmar....

whereas India not only gives them a large strategic depth but also access to north from Orissa or to south from Andhra-Tamilnadu in BoB due to her sheer size... Look where the Andamans are located which are Indian islands....Malacca as well BoB both maritime traffic can be blocked from here.... why go to BD in this case??? USA navy IOR fleet alone is capable of blockading entire Chinese naval movements here lets not even talk if Indian navy too joins....

View attachment 876688

India might not be capable of doing this alone. Nothing stops USA and India from seizing Arakan region of Myanmar to supply North Eastern India.
@Nergal

 

[vishwambhar]

India might not be capable of doing this alone. Nothing stops USA and India from seizing Arakan region of Myanmar to supply North Eastern India.
@Nergal

While I won't advocate for capturing someone's territory as we have to respect territorial integrity of every nation, from military point of view capturing Arakan from Burma is not a cake walk..... Burmese are tough fighters like Vietnamese and they can make life of invading army miserable..... They are battle hardened too that too in jungle warfare from the years of experience fighting with various insurgencies in that country.... We should not underestimate them....

Only cakewalk is cutting a chicken neck from India and capturing seven sisters for fanboys here.....

 

[nahtanbob]

While I won't advocate for capturing someone's territory as we have to respect territorial integrity of every nation, from military point of view capturing Arakan from Burma is not a cake walk..... Burmese are tough fighters like Vietnamese and they can make life of invading army miserable..... They are battle hardened too that too in jungle warfare from the years of experience fighting with various insurgencies in that country.... We should not underestimate them....

Only cakewalk is cutting a chicken neck from India and capturing seven sisters for fanboys here.....

Pakistani generals wisely allowed US access to Afghanistan. I doubt Myanmar generals would stand in the way anymore than Pakistani generals

 

[vishwambhar]

Pakistani generals wisely allowed US access to Afghanistan. I doubt Myanmar generals would stand in the way anymore than Pakistani generals

Myanmar is a different case.... Firstly Myanmar mostly keeps itself away from being a global flashlight...... As per Junta the less they are discussed on international stage it's better.... Only and only power that is not barred is China..... America and India no chance...

And most importantly why we need Myanmar access to reach NE when we have our own siliguri corridor? With BD help it will be cheaper without his help it will be expensive but off course not impossible....

 

[cloud4000]

USA has been bleeding developing countries for a hundred years.

It started with world bank and IMF loans to dictators. Whereby loans were given to pliant dictators who put the cash into Swiss bank accounts.

Once these countries got into a spiral of debt - US would give them “aid” - which was used to payoff the interest on the loans.

It’s a scam that lasted for a 100 years until China turned up with actual infrastructure like mega roads and mega bridges.

Bangladesh should never ever fall into USA debt trap.

If USA wants us to “facilitate QUAD” - it must include GSP and cash transfers. Stingy USA needs to match the offers from China.

You know this post is BS when China is considered a better imperialist than the US, when, in reality, they are one and the same. They use the same techniques, the same carrots, and the same sticks.

Do you seriously consider the countries in China build infrastructure are not corrupt? Like the US, they prefer corrupt leaders -- civilian or military -- because they can be easily bought with cash deposits in offshore accounts. China then lends them money to build these projects at unfavorable terms because corrupt leaders only care about themselves and not their country.

It would be in Bangladesh to avoid any debt trap, but this requires a government that is not easily corruptible.

 

[dbc]

Umm , actually that's not a problem since China as Myanmar. China will move it's army and navy through Myanmar in a full scale war. Chicken neck will be wringed ,and India can't save it. If China can control the bay of Bengal India is encircled actually!

Couple of flaws in your theory.

1. India shares a border with Myanmar, much longer than the land border between Myanmar and Bangladesh. When Chinese troops begin massing in Myanmar the Indians will mobilize on their side of the border as well.
2. Chinese logistical re-supply lines through Myanmar will be problematic due to poor road and rail infrastructure in Myanmar.
3. You speak of the Chinese navy staging from Myanmar and forget access to the Myanmar coast necessitates the Chinese take the Andaman Islands from India first - there is no way around it.
4. The threat to India's chicken neck from Myanmar is overstated the Chinese already have direct access to India's chicken neck from the north - there is no reason to take a circuitous route via Myanmar.

For all the reasons I mentioned above and more Pakistan is a superior option for China.

If China can control the bay of Bengal India is encircled actually!

I don't see how China can control the bay of bengal when PLAN can't pass through the strait of malacca without being shot at by the Indians. Unless you think the PLAN will somehow move their ships into the bay of bengal overland through Myanmar?

Once again the Chinese must take Andaman from India to have any hope of bringing its navy into the fight against India. True, Bangladesh is an important supply route to India's northeast if the Chinese launch a massive offensive from the north to take the Chicken neck.

Tell me , shall USA take the risk of direct conflict with China? I don't think so .

It depends, If China attacks Japan or South Korea or Australia there is no doubt the US will be in direct conflict with China. For India, I don't think so. the support will be through intelligence sharing, logistics and weapons supply. I don't see any scenario in which the US will need or want military bases in Bangladesh.

 

[aviator_fan]

USA has been bleeding developing countries for a hundred years.

It started with world bank and IMF loans to dictators. Whereby loans were given to pliant dictators who put the cash into Swiss bank accounts.

Once these countries got into a spiral of debt - US would give them “aid” - which was used to payoff the interest on the loans.

It’s a scam that lasted for a 100 years until China turned up with actual infrastructure like mega roads and mega bridges.

Bangladesh should never ever fall into USA debt trap.

If USA wants us to “facilitate QUAD” - it must include GSP and cash transfers. Stingy USA needs to match the offers from China.

Bangladesh's per capita GDP has gone from $90 to over $2500 so what are you complaining about. BD was never Qatar or Norway that US bled you dry. Its better in many respects so how is the 100 year theory applying to you. Its also its largest trading partner

US interferes (mostly needlessly everwhere) is true. But famines have gone down, and GDP per capita is generally higher in most poor countries outside of the last 2 years so your emotions don't match reality

 

[Bengal71]

ভাই আমি তো আগেই বলেছি যে আন্দামান কে ইউজ করলে ভারত জড়িয়ে যাবে, আর এতে চীন প্রতিশোধ স্বরুপ ভারতের মুরগির ঘাড় ( শিলিগুড়ি করিডর) চেপে ধরবে! এতে ভারত সেভেন সিস্টার্স কে হারাবে। এই রিস্ক নিয়েও কি ভারত আমেরিকাকে আন্দামান ব্যবহার করতে দেবে?

চিন শিলিগুড়ি করিডর ব্লক করলে দুনিয়ার কোন শক্তি নাই ওটাকে বাঁচায়, যদি না বাংলাদেশের মধ্যে দিয়ে আপনি সেনা আর রসদ পাঠাতে পারেন সেভেন সিস্টার্সে!


অত নৌ অপারেশনের সামর্থ্য কি আমেরিকার আছে? টাকা দেবে কে? ইউক্রেনকেই তো সেভ করতে পারে না। পাঠাক না নেভী সেখানে, পাঠায় না কেন?

সেখানে ইকোনমিক পাওয়ার হাউস চিনের বিরুদ্ধে কাজ টা এতই সোজা? গোপনে এই এলাকার সবাই ( ভারত ছাড়া; বাংলাদেশ কেও বাদ দিলাম), চীন কে নানা ভাবে সাহায্য করবে৷ ইরান বসে থাকবে না। আমেরিকার নেভির বিরুদ্ধে নাশকতা করবেই তারা।

পাকিস্তানও তলে তলে চীনের পক্ষেই কাজ করবে।

আমার মনে হয়না এর চেয়ে ভালভাবে আমি আপনাকে বুঝাতে পারব। ধন্যবাদ।

I don't see any scenario in which the US will need or want military bases in Bangladesh.

I agree with this. However, there seems to be increased interest on the part of US about BD. There must be something that caused this increased interest and some people are trying to explain it by the US base in BD theory. I wonder what the reason for the interest is, I am not fully discounting the US base theory, just that it's unlikely.

 

[Bengal71]

Couple of flaws in your theory.

1. India shares a border with Myanmar, much longer than the land border between Myanmar and Bangladesh. When Chinese troops begin massing in Myanmar the Indians will mobilize on their side of the border as well.
2. Chinese logistical re-supply lines through Myanmar will be problematic due to poor road and rail infrastructure in Myanmar.
3. You speak of the Chinese navy staging from Myanmar and forget access to the Myanmar coast necessitates the Chinese take the Andaman Islands from India first - there is no way around it.
4. The threat to India's chicken neck from Myanmar is overstated the Chinese already have direct access to India's chicken neck from the north - there is no reason to take a circuitous route via Myanmar.

For all the reasons I mentioned above and more Pakistan is a superior option for China.

Not disagreeing with you but a couple of points.

1. India does have a land border with Burma but it's going to be immensely difficult to mobilize. That part of Burma is mountainous and covered in thick jungles.

2. This is correct but China may build roads and infrastructure in Burma.

3. He is probably alluding to Chinese effort to build a naval base in Burma in the future. Meaning in a conflict they will have existing naval ships in the Burmese base.

4. He is talking about a large scale war where China tries to attack the chicken neck and India in it's response tries to move troops through BD territory to fight China. And that will trigger a BD response of bringing Chinese troops through Burma and BD. In reality attacking the chicken neck is not easy, it's extremely difficult and I think India has enough capability to increase the pain manifold for the Chinese forces.
I think this is a highly fictitious scenario and unlikely to play out. I even doubt US and China will ever get into a shooting war.

 

[Bengal71]

While I won't advocate for capturing someone's territory as we have to respect territorial integrity of every nation, from military point of view capturing Arakan from Burma is not a cake walk..... Burmese are tough fighters like Vietnamese and they can make life of invading army miserable..... They are battle hardened too that too in jungle warfare from the years of experience fighting with various insurgencies in that country.... We should not underestimate them....

Only cakewalk is cutting a chicken neck from India and capturing seven sisters for fanboys here.....

Anything is possible, so taking chicken neck is also possible, in theory. But reality is not theory. Chicken neck is defended by nature and it's extremely difficult to take even by the Chinese army. I don't think Indians need to worry too much about it.

 

[VikingRaider]

I think this is a highly fictitious scenario and unlikely to play out. I even doubt US and China will ever get into a shooting war.

With the rest of your messages I agree.

However maybe it's fictitious scenerio , but in theory it's still possible!

After all if USA want to block malacca strait , surely Chinese wouldn't want to surrender like a scared chicken , would they?

That's why they will do everything to secure their position!

If they make naval base in Myanmar, I see no trouble for them, as Myanmar is actually an extension of Chinese land! Myanmar will anytime allow it when China really wants it.

And now you already answer about the full scale war secenerio!

My analysis might be fictitious , but I see no other option for China in a full scale war ; surely Chinese generals will find a better option , if there is any!

Chicken neck is hard to move troops maybe , but you see it's under Chinese missile range. China is far superior to India militarily!

So if it's under Chinese missile range , it will harder to move Indian troops ( specially infantry ) since it's a narrow corridor!

On the other hand China can use Myanmar land to enter seven sisters. It's broad area and China can make better roads for it.


Yes again all are possibilities ,there might be better ways , but indeed China will remain prepared, if they don't want to bend their knees in front of USA!

That's the reason china also wouldn't let Bangladesh join USA side.

If still Bangladesh joins , the consequences will be worse than 2001-2006.

Why BNP govt faced so problem? Because they allowed consulate of tawian in Dhaka. BAL closed it.

Half of BAL development came from Chinese loan! USA doesn't have this ability to provide it.

So at least a neutral Bangladesh maybe still be beneficial!

Also USA have the tendency of using a nation as toilet tissue and through it out , when they are no longer needed.

Pakistan faced the same consequence after Soviet fall!

 

[VikingRaider]

Anything is possible, so taking chicken neck is also possible, in theory. But reality is not theory. Chicken neck is defended by nature and it's extremely difficult to take even by the Chinese army. I don't think Indians need to worry too much about it.

You will find many articles that why and now India is embarrassed because of chicken neck!

All are written by expert analysts , not by amateur like me!

 

[Bengal71]

You will find many articles that why and now India is embarrassed because of chicken neck!

All are written by expert analysts , not by amateur like me!

What articles? Analysts are dime a dozen, it doesn't make it true. Missile force, air force doesn't occupy territory, infantry does. Chinese infantry can win some small scale battles in the chicken's neck but they can occupy and hold territory.

 

[VikingRaider]

What articles? Analysts are dime a dozen, it doesn't make it true. Missile force, air force doesn't occupy territory, infantry does. Chinese infantry can win some small scale battles in the chicken's neck but they can occupy and hold territory.

I posted a talk show of Mr Abu rushd ,the chief editor of defens journal Bangladesh and an ex military officer!

It's one hour long. He was talking about the strategy in this region with map explantion.

you can search YouTube for this interview. Write open the eyes , Abu rushd.

you have to watch it in YouTube, as it's not opening here.

yes there are tons of articles , but you have to gather pearl from oyster.

besides I'm not claiming that it's inevitable. I said it's a possibility. Also said their might be better option for China to save themselves and chines generals know much better than any of us thank you.

 

[BananaRepublicUK]

Anything is possible, so taking chicken neck is also possible, in theory. But reality is not theory. Chicken neck is defended by nature and it's extremely difficult to take even by the Chinese army. I don't think Indians need to worry too much about it.

Chicken neck is very perilous. Moving troops and supplies will be very slow. Means China will have free reign in the seven sisters.