ziaulislam
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We know the next PM, FM(miftah ismail as establishment said no to ishaq dar) and CM punjab(H. shahbaz) and CM KPK(kundi) or governor raj
Question is where do we go from here.
Answer is it really depends upon three key issues
1- international inflation and oil prices
2- donars especially china, USA and arab world
3- exports policies & monetory policies
I expect inflation/oil prices to stay high for two years, i also expect roshan digital to be emptied since that is very risk investment. This alone with stress the rupee.
What i dont know is how china and arab countries will respond if they respond in same way as expected then we will have support from there, USA will probabaly resume CSF so thats an additional monetry stream
New govt seems to want to do election in 6-12 months, but that is not possible without new laws..it will have to scrap law of both EVMs and foreign pakistani voting rights..
In the interim it will have to first scrap the oil susbidy that will take oil to 220ish and rupee to where it was being speculated in 2018(to 200-250) since heavy withdrawals
This phase will also be led with several infrastucture mega projects as that PMLN forteo and is the only way you can make money (a.k.a kick backs) that impossible to prove.
In 6-12 months it would have dumped the rupee down and scrapped oil subsidy blaming it on PTI and simultaneouosy would have built enough infrastruture projects to regain its support base and cool down the temp around politics. Part of deal with establishment is not to bankruot the country so it should be generally fine
It may need to arrest few opposition leaders
But such turmoil will further destablize the rupee. There fore i would recomend swift arresting of opposition leaders
The bottom line is from my experience its sometimes not worth fixing everything.
Since public support is lacking and IK in inflexible what we need is a leader who allowz corruption but keeps good policies thus benefiting both himself/ayan ali and general public
If PMLN-PPPP can keep the rupee free float, keep sehat card, keep export subsidy the govt should resonable do okay given support from western instiution/CSF.
Question is where do we go from here.
Answer is it really depends upon three key issues
1- international inflation and oil prices
2- donars especially china, USA and arab world
3- exports policies & monetory policies
I expect inflation/oil prices to stay high for two years, i also expect roshan digital to be emptied since that is very risk investment. This alone with stress the rupee.
What i dont know is how china and arab countries will respond if they respond in same way as expected then we will have support from there, USA will probabaly resume CSF so thats an additional monetry stream
New govt seems to want to do election in 6-12 months, but that is not possible without new laws..it will have to scrap law of both EVMs and foreign pakistani voting rights..
In the interim it will have to first scrap the oil susbidy that will take oil to 220ish and rupee to where it was being speculated in 2018(to 200-250) since heavy withdrawals
This phase will also be led with several infrastucture mega projects as that PMLN forteo and is the only way you can make money (a.k.a kick backs) that impossible to prove.
In 6-12 months it would have dumped the rupee down and scrapped oil subsidy blaming it on PTI and simultaneouosy would have built enough infrastruture projects to regain its support base and cool down the temp around politics. Part of deal with establishment is not to bankruot the country so it should be generally fine
It may need to arrest few opposition leaders
But such turmoil will further destablize the rupee. There fore i would recomend swift arresting of opposition leaders
The bottom line is from my experience its sometimes not worth fixing everything.
Since public support is lacking and IK in inflexible what we need is a leader who allowz corruption but keeps good policies thus benefiting both himself/ayan ali and general public
If PMLN-PPPP can keep the rupee free float, keep sehat card, keep export subsidy the govt should resonable do okay given support from western instiution/CSF.
