News & Economy of Japan, Koreas, Russian Far East and Mongolia

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LDP remains the front-runner in Kyodo's final survey


The Liberal Democratic Party held onto its No. 1 position in the fifth and final pre-election poll by Kyodo News, while the Democratic Party of Japan managed to replace the recently formed Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Restoration Party) in second place.

In the nationwide telephone poll conducted Wednesday and Thursday, 22.9 percent of the 1,219 respondents said they intend to vote for the LDP in the proportional representation segment of Sunday's election, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous poll conducted last Saturday and Sunday.

Asked who would be more suitable as prime minister — current Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who heads the DPJ, or LDP chief Shinzo Abe — 34.2 percent of the respondents said Abe and 28.7 percent Noda. In the previous survey, Abe got 39.2 percent and Noda 30.7 percent.

Support for Nippon Ishin, headed by former Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara, stood at 10.1 percent, down 0.5 percentage point, while the DPJ got 11.3 percent, up 1.0 point.

If voting proceeds in line with the poll, the LDP would return to power for the first time in three years.

The survey found that 36.5 percent have yet to decide which party to vote for in the proportional representation section.

Slightly less than 21 percent of unaffiliated voters said they would vote for the LDP if they had to choose, 13.9 percent said Nippon Ishin and 12.4 percent said the DPJ.

Abe, who was prime minister five years ago, has said his party plans to form a coalition government with New Komeito, which is backed by the major lay Buddhist group Soka Gakkai.

A total of 32.7 percent, however, said they expect the new government formed after the election to be shaped by political realignment, while 20.8 percent are anticipating an LDP-led administration and 20.0 percent a grand coalition involving the DPJ and LDP.

New Komeito garnered 5.7 percent support in the latest poll, followed by Your Party at 3.8 percent. Support for the newly launched Nippon Mirai no To (Tomorrow Party of Japan) headed by Shiga Gov. Yukiko Kada stood at 2.5 percent, while the Japanese Communist Party secured 2.2 percent and the Social Democratic Party garnered 1.0 percent.

New Party Daichi, Shinto Kaikaku (New Renaissance Party) and DPJ coalition partner Kokumin Shinto (People's New Party) may not win a single seat, the latest survey shows.

LDP remains the front-runner in Kyodo's final survey | The Japan Times Online

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In the meantime the south Korean presidential election is on Dec 19


Park in Slight Lead in Last Presidential Opinion Polls

Park Geun-hye

Moon Jae-in.


The last opinion polls before the 18th presidential election show Saenuri Party candidate Park Geun-hye with a lead of 0.9 to 6.8 percent over Democratic United Party candidate Moon Jae-in.

A poll by KBS and Media Research on Tuesday and Wednesday gave Park 44.9 percent support, 3.5 percent ahead of Moon's 41.4 percent. A survey on Tuesday by Hangil Research for MBN and Maeil Business Newspaper showed Park in a 3.4-percent lead over Moon with 45.4 percent to 42 percent.

A poll by SBS and TNS Korea on Tuesday and Wednesday showed an even wider gap of 6.8 percent between the two candidates, with Park at 48.9 percent and Moon at 42.1 percent.

A Gallup poll for an association of provincial newspapers on Monday and Tuesday put Park ahead by 5.7 percent with 46 percent to Moon's 40.3. But another by Korea Research for the Munhwa Ilbo suggests a tighter race with Park at 42.8 percent and Moon at 41.9 percent.

With the exception the TNS and Gallup polls, which put Park in a secure lead, the other results are well within the margin of error and suggest a close race.

The Chosun Ilbo (English Edition): Daily News from Korea - Park in Slight Lead in Last Presidential Opinion Polls

 

[ahfatzia]

Mining saps Gobi lifeline

ULAANBAATAR - The Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine in the southern Gobi desert in Mongolia has become a symbol of a looming crisis: a limited water supply that could be exhausted within a decade, seriously threatening the lives and livelihoods of the local population.

Oyu Tolgoi is one of the world's largest copper deposits and has attracted major investors over the years, from Robert Friedland of Ivanhoe Capital Corp to the mining giant Rio Tinto, which now holds a majority stake in the investment, while the Mongolian government controls just 34% of the project.

Local communities fear that returns on investments will take precedence over their own subsistence, while simultaneously heightening the regions acute water shortage.

A 2010 World Bank water assessment report for the southern Gobi region projected a "lifespan" for water resources based on the number of mining projects in the pipeline, as well as a study of the region's growing population whose primary occupation is herding and rearing livestock.

The sparsely populated region, which consists of three aimags (provinces) occupying a combined area of 350,000 square kilometers, is home to 3.8 million livestock: 120,000 camels, 260,000 horses, 100,000 cows, and 3.4 million sheep and goats. Together these animals require an estimated 31,600 cubic meters of water daily.

Human consumption among the 150,000 residents in rural and urban settings across the southern Gobi is estimated at 10,000 cubic meters per day.

Subsistence herders must share a limited water supply with numerous mines. A 2009 World Bank report found that mining exploration licenses cover 55% of this area. Omongovi province, for instance, "has 63 licenses issued for extraction and 400 licenses for exploration".

Though not all these licenses will be granted, the copper extraction process guzzles so much water that locals have good reason to worry: the World Bank assessment found that in 2010, Oyu Tolgoi used about 67,000 cubic meters of water a day, while the government-owned Tavan Tolgoi coal mine consumed 76,000 cubic meters daily.

D Enkhat, director of the Ministry of Environment and Green Development, told IPS that Oyu Tolgoi's water usage is closely monitored and does not exceed the maximum allowance of 870 liters per second for the construction phase. But the fact remains that each mine's water consumption was more than double that of all the livestock in the entire region.

Basing its projections on the total number of mines in the area, World Bank researchers concluded that current known water resources could last just 10 to 12 years, unless additional sources are promptly located and utilized.

Another option would be to divert water from the Orkhon River, considered a "partially renewable" source, experts say. The environment ministry has clarified that the "first priority is for drinking water supply for locals, herders and mining workers", but others fear that the mines will consume more than all these three combined.

Alternative water sources
In 2003, managers of the Oyu Tolgoi located a saline aquifer some 35 kilometers away from the mine. The pipeline connecting this aquifer to the project is already going through the commissioning stage.

Mark Newby, principal water resources advisor for Oyu Tolgoi, said that national authorities gave the miners permission to use just 20% of the water over a 40-year period, thus ensuring that 80% of the aquifer remains, as per regulations set by the Mongolian Water Authority. The aquifer is not expected to impact the shallow herder wells that *** the desert, nor the large fresh-water aquifer on which the nearby town of Khanbogd relies.

The government-owned Tavan Tolgoi, on the other hand, does not have access to a saline aquifer and might initially use fresh water sources such as Lake Balgas, also used by herders, or rely on the river diversion project until other sources are located.

A recent mining and human rights conference held last month in the capital, Ulaanbaatar, provided a platform for herders, NGOs and local officials in the southern Gobi region to voice their concerns about the project to the central government.

Chondmani Dagva, governor of the Dungovi province, which lies directly north of the Omnigovi aimag, lamented his inability to halt the rapid clearance of mining licenses. He complained that local authorities have little power to protect their constituencies, given that mining licenses are issued in the capital.

Herders, whose voices have been almost completely silenced in the rush to develop the region's mining sector, simply expressed disbelief at the scale and possible impact of the projects. One herder, representing 4,000 people from his soum, or sub-district, where four mines are operating, said he fears not being to retain his camels and his livelihood.

"If that fifth mine opens, there will be no more livelihoods in my soum," he said.

Sara Jackson, a PhD candidate in geography at the Toronto-based York University who is researching the impact of the Oyu Tolgoi on herders, said that a herder had told her that "the mining companies are telling us to have fewer animals, so basically they are telling us to be poor".

Herders have also hinted that corruption affected relations between local authorities and the mining companies. In 2011, Transparency International ranked the country 2.7 out of 10, two places away from "highly corrupt".

But the mines are lucrative enough to drown out locals' concerns. Oyu Tolgoi alone is expected to contribute about 30% of Mongolia's gross domestic product by the time the project is up and running in 2013.

It is unlikely that residents in the southern Gobi region will share in the spoils of these extraction projects. Khanbogd, the soum located closest to Oyu Tolgoi, is very poor in comparison to Ulaanbaatar, which has been the recipient of generous government funding.

According to local researchers, Khanbogd receives the smallest revenue from the central government of any soum or aimag.

Asia Times Online :: Mining saps Gobi lifeline

 

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The Russian Far East Gateway to Asia

By Liz Bagot and Josh Wilson

Constituting over one-third of Russia’s territory, home to major natural resource deposits, and essential to maintaining increasingly valuable Asian trade routes, the Far East Federal District is a strategically important asset for Russia. About half of the district's landmass lies within the enormous Sakha Republic, which is often considered to be geographically more a part of neighboring Eastern Siberia. But even without the republic, the smallest interpretation of the geographic Russian Far East (from the Pacific Watershed to the Pacific Ocean), would still be the world's eighth largest country if it declared independence, ranked just below the rising power of India.

While valuable, the region has also always been problematic for Russia. The Far East borders Japan and China, with which Russia has nearly always had shaky political relations. Nearby is the volatile Korean Peninsula. Thousands of miles and several time zones away from Moscow, the Far East has always maintained a streak of independence from the central government and has never been easy to rule. Largely mountainous and cold, it supports only a small population: if it were truly independent, it would hold fourth place among the world's least densely populated states, just below desolate Mongolia. Defending and managing the area, therefore, has always been a challenge for the Kremlin.

In 1639, a band of Cossacks under the leadership of Ivan Moskyitin reached the Okhotsk Sea, completing an important step in Russia's long drive to push its eastern border to the Pacific and establish ports and a naval presence there. The port and naval base would be appear only after 1858, when the area that would become the Primorsky Krai of today's Russian Far East was claimed from the Chinese in the Treaty of Aigun. The port, Vladivostok, is also an important industrial and urban center as well as the final stop on the Trans-Siberian Railroad. It is also the district's largest and wealthiest city, although the administrative capital for the district has been placed in Khabarovsk, slightly further north.

Kamchatka is known for its rugged beauty as well as geothermic and volcanic activity. Pictured here are the "Three Brothers" - granite slabs at the entrance of Avacha Bay. Native legend says that three brothers went to protect their village from a tsunami. They were successful, but turned to stone in the process and now forever guard the bay.

The Far East Federal District boasts 6.7 million inhabitants (about 5% of the entire Russian population) most of which reside in the more hospitable and developed southern regions. The area gained a large Russian-speaking population starting in 1861 with the Stolypin agricultural reforms, which offered freedom from serfdom and free land in exchange for relocation to the Russian frontier. In 1882, the Russian government initiated a program bringing 2,500 Ukrainian families to the region annually. Settlement was later supplemented under the Soviets by prisoners of war and Gulag prisoners, who built infrastructure and harvested natural resources.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, however, the population has been in rapid decline. Loss of the massive Soviet subsidies has meant rapidly deteriorating living conditions for the population, of which 14% has now emigrated to more prosperous areas of Russia. Estimates predict that the population will plummet to an all-time low of 4.5 million by 2015. This alarming statistic has attracted the attention of the Russian government, which is currently discussing repopulation, reindustrialization, and massive infrastructure programs for the area, particularly around its major city, Vladivostok.

Resources and Infrastructure

Economically, the region has traditionally relied heavily on its resources: fish, oil, natural gas, pulp, wood, diamonds, iron ore, coal, gold, silver, lead, and zinc. This natural wealth contributes to the region’s 5% share in Russia’s GDP, and simultaneously to its environmental deterioration. For example, over-poaching of otters for their pelts led to severe depletion of the species in the 19th century, instigating a ban on otter hunting in the 20th century. Today, the poaching of sturgeon is still a major problem, and a porous border with China sees much lumber and wildlife smuggled illegally to the neighboring giant.

President Medvedev meets with a local man on a 2008 trip to Chukotka, where reindeer herding is a major

Despite the region’s richness, over half the population lives in poverty. Transport infrastructure is virtually nonexistent or in disrepair over much of its territory. The Trans-Siberian Railroad and the Baikal-Amur Mainline, the area's only major rail services, cover only a sliver of the southern-most territory. Residents of the northern-most land of Chukotka have no continuous overland route to reach Vladivostok, much less Moscow. Oddly, this is the case even as proposals to connect the area with neighboring Alaska via a massive tunnel or bridge are perennially raised.

Infrastructure is gradually improving as regional governments construct airports, roads, piers, geothermal power plants, and housing. Perhaps the biggest boon for the region will be the 2012 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) annual summit, which will be hosted in Vladivostok. Planning for the summit has resulted in a massive influx of federal funding for the construction of hotels, bridges, and roads. Federal funds will help create one of Russia's largest universities, based in Vladivostok, and is also helping to bolster existing universities such as the progressive Vladivostok State University for Economics and Service. Even the US Consulate in Vladivostok is making efforts to increase the number American students studying there – realizing the value that Russia's Far East will have in the world's new economic and geopolitical order and wanting to make sure that the US has citizens who understand the oft-overlooked land.

International Importance

The Russian Far East has historically served as the springboard for trade with the Far Eastern nations of China, the Koreas, and Japan. China is Russia’s number two trading partner overall after the European Union, and Japan is its fifth largest source of imports, mostly cars and electronics. The Russian government is prioritizing trade relations with the Far Eastern nations and has been successful in scoring several valuable partnerships. South Korea and Russia, for instance, are collaborating on the construction of an industrial complex in Russia's Nakhodka Free Economic Area and on the development of gas fields around Irkutsk. There are also plans to connect the Trans-Siberian to Korea's rail network, facilitating the transport of South Korean exports to Europe. However, this would require a fully reconnected inter-Korean transport system, severed by the Korean War and still effectively unusable due to continued tensions.

Despite the potential value of the rail project and the marginal importance of exports to North Korea from Russia's Far East, Russia has been forced to reconsider its friendly stance toward North Korea, as outlined in the 2000 Treaty on Friendship, Good-Neighborly Relations, and Cooperation. When Vladimir Putin came to office in 2000, he prioritized mending tensions with North Korea, which had tattered by hostility between Kim Jong Il and Boris Yeltsin. However, North Korea’s nuclearization and disobedience of international law have caused Putin to backtrack. In addition, North Korea’s recent attack on South Korea has triggered an exodus of North Korean immigrant workers from the Russian Far East, as they rush home to join what may soon be a war effort. North Korean immigrants are a significant source of cheap labor to the Russian Far East.

Russo-Chinese relations are currently at an all-time high. In 1995, 2004, and 2008, a series of long-standing border disputes were resolved by the two countries. On January 1, 2011 the Eastern Siberia – Pacific Ocean (ESPO) oil pipeline began oil shipments to China, the pipeline's biggest beneficiary (it will also serve the Koreas and Japan). In late 2010, in a move to boost their own currencies, Beijing and Moscow bilaterally switched to domestic currencies for use in their growing trade relations, dropping the US dollar. This signals Russia’s commitment to China as a serious trading partner and ally, and one that may overshadow the EU in importance someday.

Although Russo-Japanese trade relations are lucrative, political relations are greatly hindered by a dispute over the Kuril Islands, an archipelago which separates the Sea of Okhotsk from the North Pacific Ocean. These islands are officially under Russian jurisdiction, but Japan claims four of them as its own. The conflict arose after World War II, when Japan was forced to abandon the islands, but the Soviet Union was not explicitly granted sovereignty over them. In large part because of this disagreement, the two countries have actually never signed a treaty to formally end their WWII conflict. A 2008 decision by the Japanese government requiring that school textbooks state that Japan has sovereignty over the islands reignited tensions. Dmitri Medvedev's 2010 visit to the islands ignited tensions further. The islands are rich sources of fish and also home to mineral deposits of pyrite, sulfur, and various polymetallic ores. Forming a barrier between the open sea and the still more important Russian island of Sakhalin, with its oil, gas, new liquefied natural gas plant and export hub, the islands are also of militarily strategic importance. Russia maintains a military presence on the Kurils.

Domestic Issues and Hope

Domestically, the Russian Far East has recently been brought nearer to Moscow by consolidating Russia's time zones. These time zones were established by the Soviet Union with an eye to increasing productivity and maximizing daylight. However, in an era of modern governance and global business, they have proven highly inconvenient. Just as workers arrive to work in Moscow, they are clocking out in Vladivostok. This makes getting real-time information and communication between the two destinations very difficult. The zones were also not globally optimized: oddly, Vladivostok was one hour ahead of Tokyo, even though Tokyo is further east than Vladivostok.

Officers from a visiting Japanese destroyer are greeted with traditional Russian bread and salt in 2007. Relations have since soured over a long-standing dispute over the Kuril Islands. Vladivostok often hosts visiting warships - including from the US.

Domestic Issues and Hope

Domestically, the Russian Far East has recently been brought nearer to Moscow by consolidating Russia's time zones. These time zones were established by the Soviet Union with an eye to increasing productivity and maximizing daylight. However, in an era of modern governance and global business, they have proven highly inconvenient. Just as workers arrive to work in Moscow, they are clocking out in Vladivostok. This makes getting real-time information and communication between the two destinations very difficult. The zones were also not globally optimized: oddly, Vladivostok was one hour ahead of Tokyo, even though Tokyo is further east than Vladivostok.

President Medvedev, on whose initiative two time zones were cut from Russia, bringing Vladivostok within six hours of Moscow, claims that reducing the time gap between the two ends of Russia will facilitate economic modernization and ease the strain on industry. However, he faces much opposition, as many Russians argue that such changes could affect the physical and mental health of residents of affected regions. Some inhabitants of the Russian Far East are also reluctant to accept Medvedev’s proposal out of principle: they pride themselves in their disassociation with Moscow, and they prefer to keep their distance.

As Russia seeks a greater place on the on the world stage, it will need to develop more of its territory, especially in its east which will allow it to effectively participate in the growing markets of Asia. Russia has promised to focus on trade with East Asia, so greater development of the Russian Far East is logical for the near future. Greater economic ties will also help encourage and facilitate Russia's work for peace in the East Asian region, in which it has a vested interest due to its territorial proximity and economic interests. Although a logistical challenge due to its size and distance from Moscow, maintaining and supporting the Russian Far East is crucial to Russia's near- and long-term goals.

Russian Far East

 

[ahfatzia]

Final campaign push day before Japan vote

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan delivers a campaign speech

Japan's main opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader Shinzo Abe gestures as he speaks in support of his party's candidate in Matsudo city


TOKYO -- Candidates made final impassioned appeals Saturday to Japanese voters a day before parliamentary elections that are likely to hand power back to a conservative party that ruled the country for most of the postwar era.

While many voters remain undecided — reflecting widespread disillusionment with any party — polls suggest that the electorate will dump Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's ruling Democratic Party of Japan three years after it swept to power amid high hopes for change.

The DPJ's inability to deliver on a string of promises and Noda's push to double the sales tax have turned off voters, who appear to be turning back to the Liberal Democratic Party. The LDP ruled Japan almost continuously since 1955 until it lost badly to the DPJ in 2009.

If the LDP wins on Sunday, it would give the nationalistic Shinzo Abe, who was prime minister from 2006-2007, the top job again. His hawkish views raise questions about how that might affect ties with rival China amid a territorial dispute over a cluster of tiny islands claimed by both countries.

“We want to restore a Japan where children are proud to have been born here. Please give us your hand,” Abe, who would be Japan's seventh prime minister in 6 1/2 years, declared from the top of a truck at a campaign stop in Wako, a city northwest of Tokyo.

A win for Abe and the LDP would signal a shift to the right for Japan. The party calls for a more assertive foreign policy and revisions in Japan's pacifist constitution that would strengthen its military posture. The controversial proposals include renaming the Self-Defense Forces to call them a military — taboo since World War II — and allowing Japanese troops to engage in “collective self-defense” operations with allies that aren't directly related to Japan's own self-defense.

With Japan's economy stuck in a two-decade slump, the Liberal Democrats also call for more public works spending. They are generally more supportive of nuclear energy even though most Japanese want atomic energy phased out following last year's disaster at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant.

Prime Minister Noda, meanwhile, has sought to cast the election as a choice between moving forward or going back to the old politics of the LDP.

“It was of the Democratic Party of Japan who put in the effort to recover from Japan's 20-year slump. Are we giving this up now and are we going back to the 20-year slump? We must not do that,” Noda told listeners in Tokyo.

Surveys this past week showed about 40 percent of people were undecided, reflecting a lack of voter enthusiasm for any party, as well as confusion over the emergence of several fledgling parties that have popped up in recent months espousing a wide range of views.

The right-leaning, populist Restoration Party of Japan, led by ex-Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara and Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto — both outspoken, colorful politicians — is calling for a more assertive Japan, particularly in its dealings with China. But their forceful leadership styles and differing views on nuclear power and free trade have raised questions in voters' minds.

The anti-nuclear Tomorrow Party, formed just two weeks ago, is led by Yukiko Kada, an environmental expert and the governor of Shiga prefecture. But the party's image has taken a hit after she joined forces with a small DPJ breakaway party led by Ichiro Ozawa, a veteran power broker with a negative reputation among many Japanese.

Major Japanese newspapers are projecting that the LDP will win a majority of seats in the 480-seat lower chamber of parliament, meaning it could rule alone or perhaps form a coalition with the closely allied Komeito, a party backed by a large Buddhist lay organization.

Those newspaper predictions were based on telephone polls, educated guesswork from reporters in voting districts across the country and analysis of past voting patterns. While such projections have generally been accurate in the past, some experts have cautioned that the actual results may be quite different, especially since so many are undecided.

“I don't know whether there is any alternative” to the current ruling party, said Keiko Seki, a-60-year-old Tokyo woman who was listening to Abe's speech. “I find this election very difficult to decide who to vote for.”

Final campaign push day before Japan vote - The China Post

 

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Japan's conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) surged back to power in an election on Sunday just three years after a devastating defeat, giving ex-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe a chance to push his hawkish security agenda and radical economic recipe.

Japan's LDP surges back to power, eyes two-thirds majority with ally | Reuters

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Japan's Shinzo Abe: comeback kid with conservative agenda

(Reuters) - Japan's Shinzo Abe may be thoroughly modern when it comes to pitching his policies on a widely followed Facebook page, but his conservative agenda for shedding the shackles of post-war pacifism is one that he learned at his grandfather's knee.

The dapper, soft-spoken Abe first took office in 2006 as Japan's youngest prime minister since World War Two. But he quit suddenly after a year plagued by scandals in his cabinet, public outrage at lost pension records and his Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) big defeat in an election for parliament's upper house.

Now with a hawkish Abe again at the helm, the LDP -- ignominiously ousted in 2009 -- surged back to power on Sunday, giving Abe a rare second chance to lead the world's third-largest economy and its 10th most populous nation.

"I have experienced failure as a politician and for that very reason, I am ready to give everything for Japan," Abe wrote in a recent magazine article, referring to his September 2007 resignation, which he blamed on a chronic intestinal ailment.

Abe, 58, hails from a wealthy political family that included a foreign minister father and a great-uncle who served as premier. But when it comes to policies, his grandfather, the late prime minister Nobusuke Kishi, seems to have mattered most.

"If one lists the many problems Japan faces ... they all stem from one root cause," Abe wrote.

"Haven't we put off problems without clarifying Japan's will to protect the lives and assets of its people and territory with its own hands, and merely accepted the benefits of economic prosperity?" added Abe, who wants to loosen the limits of Japan's post-World War Two pacifist constitution.

Kishi, a wartime cabinet minister who was imprisoned but never tried as a war criminal after World War Two, served as prime minister from 1957 to 1960, when he had to resign due to a public furor over a renegotiated U.S.-Japan security pact.

Five years old at the time, Abe famously heard the sound of violent clashes between police and leftist crowds protesting against the pact outside parliament as he played on his grandfather's lap.

Kishi tried without success to revise Japan's U.S.-drafted 1947 constitution, become an equal partner with the United States and adopt a more assertive diplomacy -- all central to Abe's agenda both in 2006 and today.

'ESCAPING THE POST-WAR REGIME'

Abe often speaks of "escaping the post-war regime", a legacy of the U.S. Occupation that conservatives argue deprived Japan of national pride and weakened traditional mores.

"I have not changed my view from five years ago when I was prime minister that the biggest issue for Japan is truly 'escaping the post-war regime'," Abe wrote.

First elected to parliament in 1993 after his father's death, Abe rose to national fame by adopting a tough stance toward Japan's unpredictable neighbor North Korea in a feud over Japanese citizens kidnapped by Pyongyang decades ago.

More recently, he has promised not to yield in a territorial row with China over tiny islands in the East China Sea and boost defense spending to counter Beijing's growing clout.

He also wants to recast Japan's wartime history in less apologetic tones, and in April visited the Yasukuni Shrine, seen in much of Asia as a symbol of Japan's past militarism.

Whether Abe, who is also prescribing radical monetary policy steps to beat deflation, will stick faithfully to his ultra-conservative agenda once in office is a matter for debate.

"He can say whatever he wants during the campaign that will win him votes but when he becomes prime minister again, he ... will quickly shift to governing mode. That means he will be, and should be, more realistic," said Kunihiko Miyake, research director at the Canon Institute for Global Studies in Tokyo.

"He is one of the most realistic and pragmatic politicians of my generation," said Miyake, a former diplomat.

Abe surprised many in his first term by moving quickly to mend ties with China, chilled by his predecessor's visits to Yasukuni. He went to China on his first overseas trip and stayed away from the shrine -- a decision he has since said he regrets.

Skeptics question whether pragmatism will trump ideology this time. "He's been two Abes -- pragmatic and ideological," said Richard Samuels, director of the Center for International Studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Boston.

"It's going to be much harder for him to be pragmatic than before. The general public is in a less conciliatory mood than in 2006. Positions have hardened."

Whether Abe has matured enough to become a more competent leader also remains to be seen. Critics charged his first term was characterized by a cabinet filled with close friends and worry he may fall into the same trap this time, too.

"The return of the cabinet of chums!" blared one tabloid magazine ahead of Sunday's vote.

Japan's Shinzo Abe: comeback kid with conservative agenda | Reuters

 

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South Korea Vote Will Change Policy Toward North


SEOUL, South Korea — No matter who wins South Korea’s presidential election on Wednesday, the end is near for the hard-line policy on North Korea promoted by the departing president: the two top candidates both agree on a more moderate approach.

But the question of how much aid and investment South Korea should offer the North, and under what conditions, has become a major point of contention, one that could create discord with Washington.

The neck-and-neck race pits Park Geun-hye, the candidate of President Lee Myung-bak’s conservative Saenuri Party, against Moon Jae-in, who represents the liberal Democratic United Party.

Their backgrounds are as different as those of any two Koreans could be. Ms. Park is the daughter of Park Chung-hee, who ruled South Korea with an iron fist from 1961 to 1979. Mr. Moon is a former student activist who was jailed in the 1970s for opposing Mr. Park’s dictatorship.

But both agree that Mr. Lee’s policy of backing international sanctions to compel North Korea to end its nuclear programs and refraining from dialogue with the North has failed to tame its hostility toward the South. North Korea’s successful launching of a three-stage rocket on Wednesday has not changed the candidates’ promises to provide more generous aid to the North and to try to hold talks with its new leader, Kim Jong-un.

“The launch doesn’t seem to be having much effect on the current presidential contest one way or the other,” said John Delury, a professor at Yonsei University in Seoul who is an expert on North Korea. Here in the South Korean capital, not far from the North Korean border, “most people don’t see this rocket launch as a security threat, for the simple reason that North Korea can use quicker and more effective short- and midrange capabilities to strike the South, if it ever came to that,” Mr. Delury said.

For the Obama administration, the timing of the transition of power in South Korea is problematic. After the rocket launching, American officials talked of imposing “Iran-like sanctions” on North Korea, suggesting curbs on investment and banking outside the country and on purchases of North Korean goods. Finding new sanctions that truly hurt will be difficult; the North is already one of the most penalized countries on earth.

But winning approval of those sanctions in the United Nations Security Council will be even more difficult if South Korea appears to be headed in the other direction. Susan E. Rice, the American ambassador to the United Nations, clashed on Wednesday with her Chinese counterpart over whether the rocket launching merited a response at all; the Chinese argued it did not. Marshaling support among United States allies will be almost impossible if a new South Korean president is announcing renewed initiatives.

“This could put us back to where we were in the Bush administration,” one American diplomat said, “where the White House was going in one direction, imposing sanctions, and a South Korean president was going in the other.”

President Obama and President Lee have pursued a policy of “strategic patience,” isolating and penalizing North Korea for its provocations and hoping that China would rein in its ally. China never did.

“The United States is more than willing to let South Korea take the lead on North Korea — as long as it is comfortable with the general direction,” said David Straub, deputy director at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University. “The Obama administration will only be willing to go so far unless and until Pyongyang signals a genuine willingness to negotiate away its nuclear and missile programs on reasonable terms.”

Mr. Lee’s liberal predecessors, Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun, pursued a “sunshine policy” of reconciliation and economic cooperation with North Korea from 1998 to 2008. Billions of dollars of South Korean investment, aid and goods flowed into the North to encourage it to shed its isolation and hostility, and to try to reduce the economic gap between the two Koreas and the cost of reunification in the future.

When the political pendulum swung toward Mr. Lee, who took office in 2008, he reversed the policy and said the North would need to give up its nuclear weapons if it wanted South Korean largess to continue. In the years that followed, the North cut off all official dialogue, conducted its second nuclear test, launched a long-range test missile, was accused of sinking a South Korean warship and fired an artillery barrage at a South Korean island.

“Lee Myung-bak’s policy did nothing to stop North Korea from expanding its nuclear capability or change its behavior — it only worsened the problem,” said Mr. Moon, who wants to revive the sunshine policy.

more: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/18/w...d-north-will-change.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=0

............


On eve of South Korea vote, Park sounds father's battle cry

Conservative Saenuri Party candidate Park Geun-hye


(Reuters) - With just a day to go before a tight presidential vote in South Korea, front-running conservative candidate Park Geun-hye evoked her dictator father's economic call to arms in a bid to rally her party faithful.

She pledged in a news conference to recreate Park Chung-hee's "Let's Live well" miracle of rapid economic gains for a country that she said was laboring under heavy household debt, the high cost of raising children and poverty among old people.

Data shows that South Korean households are more indebted than those in the United States were just before the 2008 credit crisis.

The elder Park's 18-year rule from 1961 to 1979 helped transform South Korea's from a war-torn backwater into an export powerhouse. In a bid to get people to work towards prosperity, a song based on the "Let's Live Well" catch phrase blared out from loudspeakers across the country under his rule.

Park's daughter had earlier sought to distance herself from the divisive legacy of her father's rule that also saw political repression in the name of securing the country.

The gap between the conservative Park and her left-wing challenger, Moon Jae-in, could be as little as 0.5 percentage points, according to some polls.

"It comes down to the demographics of the voter turnout," said Hong Hyung-sik of pollster Hangil Research.

Polls show that older voters are more likely to pick Park and more likely to vote, while Moon is reliant on more fickle younger voters.

Park would be South Korea's first female president.

She campaigned on a platform of "economic democratization", better regulation and more welfare spending and has tacked back to the right in recent days with a more conciliatory tone towards business.

PROMISES

On a visit to the country's stock exchange on Tuesday, Park called for growth and job creation through innovation and investment in science and technology.

"To help the KOSPI index reach the 3,000-mark, we need to grow the pie and make new jobs, new growth engines and new markets," she said, pledging that she would achieve this in her 5-year term.

The benchmark KOSPI index of core South Korean stocks, has been trading at a 200-day moving average of 1,924.41 points.

Park has also said that she wants to increase welfare spending from its current level of 7.6 percent of gross domestic product, less than half the rich nation average of 19 percent, but she has not spelled out by how much.

Her plan to fund this hinges on cutting wasteful spending and increasing the tax base, rather than through tax increases.

Park has signaled that she will not take action to break up a system of cross-shareholdings through which a few families control a sprawling network of so-called chaebol, or industrial conglomerates, that dominate South Korea.

The top 5 chaebols, which include household names such as Samsung Electronics and Hyundai Motor, make up more than half the value of all listed South Korean companies.

Her rival, Moon, has promised an $18 billion jobs package on top of existing spending plans and to crack down on the chaebol, although they have often proved more resilient than governments.

In his final news conference on Tuesday, Moon tied Park firmly to the ruling party, which he said had proved unworthy of governing.

"If you don't rebuke them, the wrongs will continue. It is time to be harsh and pick up the rod to beat them. Tomorrow is that moment," he urged.

More than 40 million people are eligible to vote on Wednesday. The polls open at 6 a.m. (2100 GMT) and close at 6 p.m. (0900 GMT).

The winner will take office in February after the mandatory single term of President Lee Myung-bak ends.

On eve of South Korea vote, Park sounds father's battle cry | Reuters

 

[Viet]

It is sad to see Japan, Korea, Russian Far East and Mongolia share a single thread, similar to fate of other South East Asian nations. Do they count less?

You may join my appeal to the Mods here to open country related sections (like Chinese defence): so Japan defence, Vietnam defence, etc...

 

[ahfatzia]

It is sad to see Japan, Korea, Russian Far East and Mongolia share a single thread, similar to fate of other South East Asian nations. Do they count less?

You may join my appeal to the Mods here to open country related sections (like Chinese defence): so Japan defence, Vietnam defence, etc...

There's no need, as you can see nobody interests in this corner of the world and one phony Korean, plus a Japanese right winger who hardly log in, in this forum can't substantiate a section by themselves.

Sadly I'm probably the only one wants to know what people think in this wilderness.

 

[nufix]

Japan reports 5th month of trade deficit


Japan is reporting its fifth straight month of trade deficits for November, marking a lengthy span of lagging exports that highlights a struggling economy.

The Finance Ministry released data Wednesday showing the trade deficit soared nearly 38 percent last month compared to November the previous year.

November exports stood at 4.98 trillion yen ($59.3 billion), while imports totaled 5.94 trillion yen ($70.7 billion), making for a deficit of 953.4 billion yen ($11.4 billion).

Japanese companies are moving production abroad to compete globally. Exports to China plunged following a territorial dispute that set off anti-Japanese sentiments and a boycott. Energy imports have shot up since the nuclear disaster.

The political party that made a comeback in Sunday's election is making economic revival a priority, promising public spending and an inflation target.

Japan reports 5th month of trade deficit | The Jakarta Post

 

[Viet]

There's no need, as you can see nobody interests in this corner of the world and one phony Korean, plus a Japanese right winger who hardly log in, in this forum can't substantiate a section by themselves.

Sadly I'm probably the only one wants to know what people think in this wilderness.

Wilderness? Seems so. Let me check if I can contribute some inputs into this thread.

 

[Viet]

Mongolia, Vietnam ink education agreement
12/17/2012 5:15:48 PM VOV online

(VOV) - Deputy Minister of Education and Training Tran Quang Quy and Mongolian ambassador to Vietnam Dorj Enkhbat signed a 2013-2016 agreement on education cooperation in Hanoi on December 17.

Accordingly, the two countries will increase the exchange of delegations to share experience in education development and cooperation. They will particularly encourage the exchange of lecturers, scientists and young researchers to learn from each other’s experience for joint future projects.

They will promote bilateral cooperation programmes between their universities and institutions and consider the possibility of signing an agreement on mutual recognition of their university degrees.

Vietnam and Mongolia began exchanges of students and cultural cooperation in the 1960s. Under the 2006 agreement, Vietnam has received 15 Mongolian students every year. Since 2009 it has received a total of 62 students from Mongolia, and sent 14 students to Mongolia for studies.

The two countries have signed some 20 cooperative agreements on economics, trade, culture, education, science-technology and other areas.

 

[Kolaps]

Japan reports 5th month of trade deficit


Japan is reporting its fifth straight month of trade deficits for November, marking a lengthy span of lagging exports that highlights a struggling economy.

The Finance Ministry released data Wednesday showing the trade deficit soared nearly 38 percent last month compared to November the previous year.

November exports stood at 4.98 trillion yen ($59.3 billion), while imports totaled 5.94 trillion yen ($70.7 billion), making for a deficit of 953.4 billion yen ($11.4 billion).

Japanese companies are moving production abroad to compete globally. Exports to China plunged following a territorial dispute that set off anti-Japanese sentiments and a boycott. Energy imports have shot up since the nuclear disaster.

The political party that made a comeback in Sunday's election is making economic revival a priority, promising public spending and an inflation target.

Japan reports 5th month of trade deficit | The Jakarta Post

Japan trade deficit is not a big deal. Because some of them are contributed by inner-company trade, a trade by Japanese own companies that operating in other countries to reduce labor cost (which is good for company profit). It just sound bad in the newspaper and politics for people who don't understand.

 

[Viet]

Vietnam, Mongolia recognise market economy status
12/7/2012 3:09:23 PM VOV Online

(VOV) - Vietnam and Mongolia have exchanged diplomatic notes on mutual recognition of their full market economy status.

Mongolian ambassador to Vietnam Dorji Enkhbat presented the note to Deputy Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son in Hanoi on December 7. The same day, the Vietnamese ambassador to Mongolia handed over a similar document to the State Minister of Mongolia in Ulan Bator.

 

[Shardul.....the lion]

It is sad to see Japan, Korea, Russian Far East and Mongolia share a single thread, similar to fate of other South East Asian nations. Do they count less?

You may join my appeal to the Mods here to open country related sections (like Chinese defence): so Japan defence, Vietnam defence, etc...

Yes MODs can think on opening of Vietnamese section, as there as several vietnamese posters and vietnamese threads are regularly visited by Chinese, Indians and others also.

 

[ahfatzia]

Park Geun-hye sure to become the first female president in Korea: NEC


SEOUL, Dec. 19 (Yonhap) -- Park Geun-hye, the candidate of the ruling conservative Saenuri Party, is certain to win the tightly contested South Korean presidential race, the country's election watchdog said Wednesday.

The National Election Commission (NEC), citing its count of votes, said Park is sure to become South Korea's first female president after defeating Moon Jae-in, the candidate of the main opposition Democratic United Party.

(2nd LD)(Election) Park Geun-hye sure to win presidential election: NEC | YONHAP NEWS