New Estimate Puts CoronaVirus Death Rate at 1%

[beijingwalker]

Bloomberg News. Feb 11 2020
New Estimate Puts Virus Death Rate at 1% (10:37 a.m. NY)

The mortality rate from the coronavirus is an estimated 1%, researchers at the Imperial College London said in a new report that attempts to account for mild cases as well as more severe ones at the center of the outbreak in China.

Researchers have been trying to estimate how severe the virus is, and to calculate how fast it spreads as well as how many people get severe illnesses or die. In China’s Hubei province, where the outbreak began, the fatality rate may be 18% for patients with severe symptoms, the researchers calculated.

“The impact of the unfolding epidemic may be comparable to the major influenza pandemics of the twentieth century,” Neil Ferguson, an infectious disease researcher at Imperial College London, said in a statement.

The researchers said the 1% mortality rate was an estimate of what will happen once all cases are counted, and after previously undiagnosed ones drive the rate down.

Any estimates ”should be viewed cautiously” given the numerous uncertainties involved, the researchers warned in in their report. Mortality rates tend to shift in the middle of an outbreak as new and milder cases are found.

The U.K. researchers estimated that the typical time between onset of symptoms and death has been about 22 days, meaning that there may be a multiweek time lag between reporting of cases and when deaths from those cases become apparent.

Overall, the Imperial College London researchers estimated that 1.3% of Wuhan residents were infected with the virus as of Jan. 31, but only 1 in 19 of them were being tested for the virus – suggesting that the actual number of cases could be far higher than the official numbers indicate.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-10/death-toll-tops-1-000-mortality-estimate-at-1-virus-update

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

If it spreads to 1 billion people worldwide 1% would be 10 million deaths
World population is 5-7 billion

The issue with this illness is , that it is very contagious

 

[khansaheeb]

Bloomberg News. Feb 11 2020
New Estimate Puts Virus Death Rate at 1% (10:37 a.m. NY)

The mortality rate from the coronavirus is an estimated 1%, researchers at the Imperial College London said in a new report that attempts to account for mild cases as well as more severe ones at the center of the outbreak in China.

Researchers have been trying to estimate how severe the virus is, and to calculate how fast it spreads as well as how many people get severe illnesses or die. In China’s Hubei province, where the outbreak began, the fatality rate may be 18% for patients with severe symptoms, the researchers calculated.

“The impact of the unfolding epidemic may be comparable to the major influenza pandemics of the twentieth century,” Neil Ferguson, an infectious disease researcher at Imperial College London, said in a statement.

The researchers said the 1% mortality rate was an estimate of what will happen once all cases are counted, and after previously undiagnosed ones drive the rate down.

Any estimates ”should be viewed cautiously” given the numerous uncertainties involved, the researchers warned in in their report. Mortality rates tend to shift in the middle of an outbreak as new and milder cases are found.

The U.K. researchers estimated that the typical time between onset of symptoms and death has been about 22 days, meaning that there may be a multiweek time lag between reporting of cases and when deaths from those cases become apparent.

Overall, the Imperial College London researchers estimated that 1.3% of Wuhan residents were infected with the virus as of Jan. 31, but only 1 in 19 of them were being tested for the virus – suggesting that the actual number of cases could be far higher than the official numbers indicate.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-10/death-toll-tops-1-000-mortality-estimate-at-1-virus-update

Going by what the Chinese officials provided it was close to 3%.

 

[beijingwalker]

If it spreads to 1 billion people worldwide 1% would be 10 million deaths
World population is 5-7 billion

The issue with this illness is , that it is very contagious

It becomes less virulent now than it first started, I don't think it can infect 1 billion population, genetically it's very close to SARS and it's very like to follow SARS path, but of course it's still too early to make any predictions.

Going by what the Chinese officials provided it was close to 3%.

The intial rate was very high cause only severe cases were tested and confirmed, since then it has been falling, the fatality rate outside Hubei province is just 0.16%, outside China can be even lower.

 

[Suika]

An infected person either recovers or dies. The official numbers has about 4,000 cured and about 1,000 dead. That makes for 20% death rate. The other 40,000 confirmed cases are yet to reach their conclusion of "healed" or dead. So using the ratio of death to confirmed cases isn't really a substantial statistic but more like a statisitic that is more well suited for the CCP and for money people every where else in the world that want to down play the risk to business.

Other countries have several dozens infected but with only a death in HK and one in the Philippines. But the total number of infected in these places are still very low because of travel controls, which means that the medical facilities in those places aren't being overloaded like in Hubei province. This virus seems very contiguous and if allowed to spread around with lax control, then it seems like it could easily overwhelm the medical facilities in other countries as well.

 

[beijingwalker]

An infected person either recovers or dies. The official numbers has about 4,000 cured and about 1,000 dead. That makes for 20% death rate..

Its's the first time that I see fatality rate is calculated this way, you can apply for a patent to WHO.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

It is not factored in not all countries have same medical care / facilities

 

[Mista]

If it spreads to 1 billion people worldwide 1% would be 10 million deaths
World population is 5-7 billion

The issue with this illness is , that it is very contagious

Not to downplay but to put things into perspective, 10 million people die in China every year. Or around 27k every day.

 

[Menthol]

If it spreads to 1 billion people worldwide 1% would be 10 million deaths
World population is 5-7 billion

The issue with this illness is , that it is very contagious

And the most dangerous is... you don't know whatever you have it or not until 10 days later.

During that 10 days, you already spread it to other people.

 

[beijingwalker]

An infected person either recovers or dies. The official numbers has about 4,000 cured and about 1,000 dead. That makes for 20% death rate.

In the early days there were several times more deaths than the cured, so in the early days the mortality rate must be 300%, you will die 3 to 4 times if you get this virus.

 

[GumNaam]

So, 1% mortality rate means that 99 out of a 100 will be cured...even if it's the worse case scenario of 3% mortality rate, that means 97 out of a 100 will be cured. Now how the blippin' hell does that actually as a "global epidemic that threatens mankind's existence"? heck, even over here in Washington, the first patient caught with Corona was treated, successfully cured and walked away from the hospital in a weeks time off on his merry little way! friggin drama queens!