New Dead Line: India must try to become developed country by 2030: Jaitley

[UKBengali]

yes we are optimistic, why should be not.
Its not that we keep crying like bangladeshis all the time.

Be realistic at least for once.

By 2030, you may have doubled your GDP/capita but need to take into account that other
countries will also be going up, and so you would maybe relatively have increased your
GDP/capita by 50% in relative terms.

Optimism is one thing bit this is complete fantasy.

 

[randomradio]

By 2030, you may have doubled your GDP/capita but need to take into account that other countries will also be going up, and so you would maybe relatively have increased your GDP/capita by 50% in relative terms.

That's a very silly argument. Maybe your country is affected by that, but India is not. It doesn't matter how much the rupee or dollar fluctuates and how other countries grow, the prices in India are affected only by domestic changes.

Say, if rice is Rs 100/kg, it will go up based on the WPI/CPI within India only. If BD goes to hell, it won't affect rice prices in India.

The only major products India is affected by is oil prices, gold, some types of electronics and some chemicals, because India imports them. That's about it. And currently their prices are in India's favour.

 

[UKBengali]

That's a very silly argument. Maybe your country is affected by that, but India is not. It doesn't matter how much the rupee or dollar fluctuates and how other countries grow, the prices in India are affected only by domestic changes.

Say, if rice is Rs 100/kg, it will go up based on the WPI/CPI within India only. If BD goes to hell, it won't affect rice prices in India.

The only major products India is affected by is oil prices, gold, some types of electronics and some chemicals, because India imports them. That's about it. And currently their prices are in India's favour.

The wealth of a country can only be considered relative to the rest of the world dude.
At best India will roughly double GDP/capita by 2030. The rest of the world will maybe see an average
increase of around 50% in gdp/capita. So the target to hit a certain level of development will
have increased by 2030.

 

[randomradio]

The wealth of a country can only be considered relative to the rest of the world dude.
At best India will roughly double GDP/capita by 2030. The rest of the world will maybe see an average
increase of around 50% in gdp/capita. So the target to hit a certain level of development will
have increased by 2030.

You make zero sense. That's not how economies work. Super rich, highly developed Singapore doesn't compare in any metric against India when you compare diplomatic pull, military pull, scientific pull, manpower etc. Same with Saudi, UAE etc.

India can double its per capita, and the rest of the world can quadruple its per capita, it doesn't change anything within India. The two events are completely unrelated. In fact, it works in India's favour if other countries grow faster, that would mean India can export more and stay competitive and will reach development goals faster.

For India to be a developed country, it has to achieve some metrics, and those metrics are not influenced by foreign countries.

Read post 42 and my reply in post 44, that will give you an idea.

 

[Mista]

@randomradio

Are you the same guy whom I argued against a few weeks ago regarding India reaching $10 trillion economy in 10 years time?




Okay... This is the same guy who predicted India's economy will multiply by 5 times in 10 years time a few weeks ago...

https://defence.pk/threads/india-to-become-10-trillion-economy-by-2026.434500/page-8#post-8381275

 

[randomradio]

Okay... This is the same guy who predicted India's economy will multiply by 5 times in 10 years time a few weeks ago...

https://defence.pk/threads/india-to-become-10-trillion-economy-by-2026.434500/page-8#post-8381275

Why not? The Chinese economy increased by 6 times in 10 years.

@randomradio

Are you the same guy whom I argued against a few weeks ago regarding India reaching $10 trillion economy in 10 years time?




Okay... This is the same guy who predicted India's economy will multiply by 5 times in 10 years time a few weeks ago...

https://defence.pk/threads/india-to-become-10-trillion-economy-by-2026.434500/page-8#post-8381275

RBI has pegged a 12.2% nominal growth rate for the next 2 years.

http://indianexpress.com/article/in...cture-rbis-brighter-growth-forecast-for-fy17/

Close on the heels of Mid-Year Economic Review painting a grim picture for India’s nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate for next year, the Reserve Bank of India in its Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy has outlined a baseline scenario of higher growth rate of 12.2 per cent for 2016-17, sticking to the envisaged fiscal deficit target of 3.5 per cent of the GDP for next fiscal.

But higher growth rates can be expected.

The RBI, however, has detailed other plausible scenario of higher nominal growth rate of 13.5 per cent, 14.0 per cent and 14.5 per cent respectively in 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2017-18,

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/ec...egs-nominal-gdp-growth-at-11fy17_5690321.html

Budget 2016: Jaitley pegs nominal GDP growth at 11% in FY17

Is it more realistic now?

At India's current pace, it can easily reach $8T. But the economy is yet to reach full steam.

 

[faithfulguy]

Indians are very optimistic.

By 2030, they won't even have hit middle-income level.

Some Indians believe that India will have imported white servants in 2030.

 

[Mista]

Why not? The Chinese economy increased by 6 times in 10 years.

The Chinese economic fundamentals are much much stronger than India's. Strong capital accounts, established manufacturing base, educated workforce, massive investments in infrastructure, and efficient governance. I'm still reading the thread on GST getting passed in India after 15 years...

And the external environment are favorable then. Developed markets going strong and absorbing China's exports, allowing China to hit 14% real growth rate in a year. The Yuan also appreciated against the USD over the years. Not to mention QE, which led to massive devaluation of the USD and appreciation of Asian currencies. The US is going to hike interest rates in the coming years.

Both the internal and external factors are there. Basically China is lucky that almost everything was in her favour. India shouldn't think such miraculous growth comes naturally just because she too has a population of over 1 billion.

 

[randomradio]

The Chinese economic fundamentals are much much stronger than India's. Strong capital accounts, established manufacturing base, educated workforce, massive investments in infrastructure, and efficient governance. I'm still reading the thread on GST getting passed in India after 15 years...

And the external environment are favorable then. Developed markets going strong and absorbing China's exports, allowing China to hit 14% real growth rate in a year. The Yuan also appreciated against the USD over the years. Not to mention QE, which led to massive devaluation of the USD and appreciation of Asian currencies. The US is going to hike interest rates in the coming years.

Both the internal and external factors are there. Basically China is lucky that almost everything was in her favour. India shouldn't think such miraculous growth comes naturally just because she too has a population of over 1 billion.

At RBI's rate of 14.5%, India will still be a $9.8T economy in 2025. And people are predicting appreciation in the near future, especially with Brexit. Even with the lower threshold of 12.2% which our experts say will be met easily, India will be a $8T economy. Even with current growth rates and stable exchange rates, India will easily be between 8 and 10T by 2025, and we are planning to add 1-2% real growth from GST alone. Just a 10% appreciation will push us above 10T. Do the math yourself, RBI has pegged nominal growth at 12.2% and I've already given the link.

And we are expecting at least 1% more in real growth from agriculture this year.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...t-boost-from-la-nina/articleshow/51926221.cms

India is already on the cusp of such "miraculous" growth. And is not even dependent on exports. India is growing at 8% real with a CAD this quarter. So you need to stop talking about exports. India's domestic consumption is 60% of the GDP and is growing way faster in volumes than exports ever will.

http://www.ibef.org/industry/indian-consumer-market.aspx

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...ion-driven-stanchart/articleshow/49833695.cms

Many people make this mistake of comparing India's economic growth with that of others. Come on, India is still years away from export related growth, industry is just 30% of the GDP, manufacturing is expected to be 25% of GDP only in 2025. That's why India's growth is a consumption story. Just look at the figures. In fact, we could get to 9% real this year and 10% real the next year with GST. With a 6% inflation, that would mean nominal growth is 14-16%. Sustain that growth for 10 years and we are at $9T to $11T without appreciation of the rupee.

And there may be a rate cut in the offing in the near term, which will boost investment into India.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/04/bank-of-england-shuts-the-door-on-a-fed-rate-hike-this-year.html

 

[A_Poster]

It would be good if we improve educational standards, complete electrification, full fledge rail, road and shipping connectivity by 2030... leave developed country status aside.

I think we should go slow on improving education for now. There is already an oversupply of educated and capable people which is evident in stagnant wages in sectors requiring highly educated people and pressure on competitive exams for not so popular government jobs like Engg services exams.

Most important priority will be 100% quality education for all, low cost/free health care, better infrastructure and 100% population connected to energy and information grid.

Jobs that go along with that educational improvement are even more important, else we would exchange uneducated and unemployed for educated and employed. There has been oversupply in Indian market of well educated people for past 3 years due to low job growth while at the same time massive improvement in education scenario, brought not by government but by private entities, mostly coachings and ICT which could improve your standard of education ,if you are willing to put in hard work. Before it was that if you do not get into IIT, you are screwed as rest colleges are pile of turds for most of the time.

Well, you maybe thinking it is easier to be a Superpower than to be a developed country. Sure, It would be very interesting to see a "Developing Superpower".

He is correct.

You could become a superpower when you have nearly 1/2 to 3/4 of defence budget as USA (depending on outcomes as money go farther in CHina and India than USA but at the same time technology here is backward), which China would have within five years, and India within 15 years as even at low per capita income, they are pretty big economies which bring high revenue for government, even though their citizens are comparatively poor.

Becoming developed in much difficult and a different ball game as it would need improving per capita income which in India and China is very difficult due to their large population.

Be realistic at least for once.

By 2030, you may have doubled your GDP/capita but need to take into account that other
countries will also be going up, and so you would maybe relatively have increased your
GDP/capita by 50% in relative terms.

Optimism is one thing bit this is complete fantasy.

LOL!!

Indian economy would be between 6-8 times of what it is today in 15 years ,even if it grow at same rate as it is growing today depending on inflation. For Indian economy to just double in 15 years, Indian economy has to actually shrink in real term by 1.27%, rather than grow at 7% as it is growing today. This when coupled only a marginal increase in Indian population (would be only 19% more than it is today, with a growth rate of 1.6% even we does not take decreasing population growth rate in consideration)easily meant nearly 4 time growth in per-capita income.

Don't you people every learn about compound interests (certainly not as anyone having intutive understanding of componding would understand that it would need extremely low level of growth for doubling in 15 years) and about growth rates (difference between real and nominal).

5. Uniformed health care system and social welfare system

I don't think this point has anything to do with developed status. Social welfare could be morally corrosive to society and avoided as proven by outcomes in Europe and Japan.

It is much better to ensure that cost of basic services does not become so high that poor people could not afford them.

 

[Dem!god]

Some Indians believe that India will have imported white servants in 2030.

And may be a few Taiwanese too.

 

[AndrewJin]

Indian politicians are well ahead of the game.



Well, if I define the term of "developed country" for today, it should meet the following qualifications:

1. Per capital GDP is above $20,000
2. Average life expectancy is above 78 years
3. Literacy of the whole population is above 95%
4. HDI is above 0.85
5. Uniformed health care system and social welfare system
6. Minimal gender inequity.

To answer your question, yes, USSR was a developed country in her time.

I think your criteria are relatively low.
Such lower criteria, if accepted by our central government, will make people easily self-content.

From my perspective
1, Per capita GDP (in real dollars) $25000 (only a few cities in mainland China have achieved)
2, life expectancy 80 years (many regions have achieved including my city in the interior of China)
3, literacy 99% (for younger generation, never a problem)
4, HDI 0.85 (probably better at 0.88 to avoid southern european countries like Italy and Spain which are in the serious economic and social welfare troubles)
(I agree with you on 5-7)
5. Same.
6. Same.
7. Same
8. low Engel‘s Coefficient (I don't know what kind of standards we should adopt, and available data seem not very up-to-date. One report in 2013 shows US= 7%, China=20%. I advise the criterion is <10%)
9. High discretionary spending
etc.

On the 9th point, pls refer to the following thread
McKinsey: Consumerism, but China?

 

[Dungeness]

I think your criteria are relatively low.
Such lower criteria, if accepted by our central government, will make people easily self-content.

From my perspective
1, Per capita GDP (in real dollars) $25000 (only a few cities in mainland China have achieved)
2, life expectancy 80 years (many regions have achieved including my city in the interior of China)
3, literacy 99% (for younger generation, never a problem)
4, HDI 0.85 (probably better at 0.88 to avoid southern european countries like Italy and Spain which are in the serious economic and social welfare troubles)
(I agree with you on 5-7)
5. Same.
6. Same.
7. Same
8. low Engel‘s Coefficient (I don't know what kind of standards we should adopt, and available data seem not very up-to-date. One report in 2013 shows US= 7%, China=20%. I advise the criterion is <10%)
9. High discretionary spending
etc.

On the 9th point, pls refer to the following thread
McKinsey: Consumerism, but China?

Now you put USA out of the rank of "developed countries".

I intentionally lowered the standard to let our Indian friend to see the hope, then they said all are easily achievable, piece of cake. Now I know why there are so many big-mouth politicians in their country.

 

[AndrewJin]

Now you put USA out of the rank of "developed countries".

Probably our Indian friends are right about it...
One can be an overall super power and super developed on the surface but with an enormous amount of unhealthy population. See the healthy life expectancy part.

I intentionally lowered the standard to let our Indian friend to see the hope, then they said all are easily achievable, piece of cake. Now I know why there are so many big-mouth politicians in their country.

You are being naughty here...

 

[rcrmj]

And may be a few Taiwanese too.

lol, Indians```````````

i bet all of these deluded Indian here, have never escaped from the slums to witness what is to be a real modern society````give them 20 more years wouldnt to be anywhere close to world's average today````that country is a total joke