belarusian
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obama says negotiating with moderate taliban is possible,
which really means he wants to end the war and get the hell out of afghanistan as soon as possible.
the substance of any negotiation is almost irrelevant. american troops must be withdrawn because it is a strategic error to fight there where they can accomplish nothing.
it makes sense to beat the taliban back first to withdraw more easily.
so the tools left are coercion/persuasion of pakistan iran, assasination with drones.
coercion/persuasion of pakistan and iran is the real key here. its the reverse pottery barn rule. pakistan and iran sabotaged the afghanistan effort now they have to live next to it. besides which they are not prospering societies and can be kept in line with sanctions. in fact having to support military forces in afghanistan gives them leverage over us.
which really means he wants to end the war and get the hell out of afghanistan as soon as possible.
the substance of any negotiation is almost irrelevant. american troops must be withdrawn because it is a strategic error to fight there where they can accomplish nothing.
it makes sense to beat the taliban back first to withdraw more easily.
so the tools left are coercion/persuasion of pakistan iran, assasination with drones.
coercion/persuasion of pakistan and iran is the real key here. its the reverse pottery barn rule. pakistan and iran sabotaged the afghanistan effort now they have to live next to it. besides which they are not prospering societies and can be kept in line with sanctions. in fact having to support military forces in afghanistan gives them leverage over us.