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Having predicted only last week that Doklam would not reach the headlines again anytime soon, it seems arrangements were already underway for a choreographed disengagement over the contested Himalayan plateau. Statements have been issued by both sides making slightly different, but importantly not incompatible, claims and the broad outlines of an agreement seem clear enough. China will continue patrolling the Doklam area while Indian troops have returned to their bases. The road which China intended to build and which caused Indian troops to deploy is only mentioned privately by Indian sources, who say that it will not now be built. China simply doesn't mention it. Other reports suggest China's road building equipment has been withdrawn.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will now attend the BRICS summit this coming week in Xiamen, something that had been thought unlikely, perhaps impossible, as long as the standoff continued. China claims that in withdrawing, India has now removed the source of the hostility and corrected its behaviour but China's bellicose rhetoric of last week has almost completely disappeared. Furthermore, for a government ordinarily so jealous of the 'hurt feelings' of its people the fact that India produced nothing remotely approaching an apology is noteworthy.
China Stumbles
Many conclusions can and will be drawn about this incident, but it will be carefully studied across the region and around the world because it has disrupted a pattern. China's habit on border disputes over the past few years has been to talk in a conciliatory manner, smile and offer win-win cooperation to all, while warning that it will not hesitate to defend its core interests. Nevertheless, as they have shown in the South China Sea and despite any promises they make to the contrary, they can be relied on to act decisively to change the facts on the ground, before then treating all protests as mere impertinence.
When there is a confrontation with a powerful rival, for example, the U.S. or Japan, it is invariably treated as the most grievous insult, for which any and all interruptions of trade or diplomatic rebukes are justified. Small powers, however, are simply presented with the sheer scale of China's power and expected to kowtow. Vietnam, for example, was left seething but essentially impotent when China warned of a military response to continued oil drilling in disputed waters. Equally the Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, despite his tough guy image, basically admitted there was nothing he could do about what appears to be the seizure of Sandy Cay, another contested islet in the South China Sea.
India Rising
While the Philippines and Vietnam are members of ASEAN, and have both been keen to agree a "Code of Conduct" for dealing with disputes and confrontations in the South China Sea, ASEAN relies on consensus, and because China has friends on the inside, it has successfully prevented a consensus contrary to their interests from emerging. Vietnam, has traditionally been friendly with Russia, but Russia's new friendship with China has left them scrambling to strengthen ties with the U.S., their old enemy. The Philippines, however, has blown hot and cold with the U.S. in recent years. Either way, the Americans have played softly softly over the South China Sea issue in the past, leaving China free to change the facts on the ground without a serious response.
Bhutan, it appears, has better friends, or perhaps allies with more directly compatible interests in resisting Chinese encroachment. Therefore when China tried to build a road in territory Bhutan claims as its own, India stepped in and decisively altered the facts on the ground. Clearly this came as a surprise to China, who nevertheless found that their usual formula of bellicose threats and aggrieved condescension left India unmoved. One claim China repeatedly made stands out: throughout this whole episode, India had patiently and quietly asserted their willingness to resolve the issue through diplomatic channels, while China had publicly demanded that talks could not even commence until India withdrew. It turns out they were talking almost from the start.
Lessons learned?
While things may change the only reasonable conclusion that might be drawn is that India have scored a small, but dramatic victory over China. Their concern was that a road would undermine their strategic advantage in the Doklam theatre, and consequently their ability to defend Bhutan. They have so far prevented the road and forced China to return to the status quo ante. China, for their part, underestimated India and have now cut their losses on a deteriorating situation from which they had little to gain and much to lose. The prospect of Narendra Modi not visiting Xiamen for the BRICS summit might have dealt a death blow to that rickety organisation, and would have meant a serious loss of face for Xi.
For the rest of the world, the key lessons that might be learned are twofold: First of all, behind all the bluster and rhetorical brinkmanship, there are pragmatists in Beijing capable of staging a remarkable recovery from the deeply wounded feelings of the Chinese people. This indicates that for all the careful footsteps diplomats engage in to sooth tensions a better approach is simply to remain quiet but firm.
Secondly, concentrate on the facts on the ground. Talking means not doing and for China it clearly serves as a useful distraction. But as India has shown, if you signal your intentions clearly and follow through without too much fuss China are likely to take you much more seriously in the end. Next week Xiamen will no doubt witness the proof of that in the smiling, confident figure of Narendra Modi, the man who made China step back and say thank you.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dougla...china-stands-down-over-doklam/2/#28cad2bf7570
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will now attend the BRICS summit this coming week in Xiamen, something that had been thought unlikely, perhaps impossible, as long as the standoff continued. China claims that in withdrawing, India has now removed the source of the hostility and corrected its behaviour but China's bellicose rhetoric of last week has almost completely disappeared. Furthermore, for a government ordinarily so jealous of the 'hurt feelings' of its people the fact that India produced nothing remotely approaching an apology is noteworthy.
China Stumbles
Many conclusions can and will be drawn about this incident, but it will be carefully studied across the region and around the world because it has disrupted a pattern. China's habit on border disputes over the past few years has been to talk in a conciliatory manner, smile and offer win-win cooperation to all, while warning that it will not hesitate to defend its core interests. Nevertheless, as they have shown in the South China Sea and despite any promises they make to the contrary, they can be relied on to act decisively to change the facts on the ground, before then treating all protests as mere impertinence.
When there is a confrontation with a powerful rival, for example, the U.S. or Japan, it is invariably treated as the most grievous insult, for which any and all interruptions of trade or diplomatic rebukes are justified. Small powers, however, are simply presented with the sheer scale of China's power and expected to kowtow. Vietnam, for example, was left seething but essentially impotent when China warned of a military response to continued oil drilling in disputed waters. Equally the Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, despite his tough guy image, basically admitted there was nothing he could do about what appears to be the seizure of Sandy Cay, another contested islet in the South China Sea.
India Rising
While the Philippines and Vietnam are members of ASEAN, and have both been keen to agree a "Code of Conduct" for dealing with disputes and confrontations in the South China Sea, ASEAN relies on consensus, and because China has friends on the inside, it has successfully prevented a consensus contrary to their interests from emerging. Vietnam, has traditionally been friendly with Russia, but Russia's new friendship with China has left them scrambling to strengthen ties with the U.S., their old enemy. The Philippines, however, has blown hot and cold with the U.S. in recent years. Either way, the Americans have played softly softly over the South China Sea issue in the past, leaving China free to change the facts on the ground without a serious response.
Bhutan, it appears, has better friends, or perhaps allies with more directly compatible interests in resisting Chinese encroachment. Therefore when China tried to build a road in territory Bhutan claims as its own, India stepped in and decisively altered the facts on the ground. Clearly this came as a surprise to China, who nevertheless found that their usual formula of bellicose threats and aggrieved condescension left India unmoved. One claim China repeatedly made stands out: throughout this whole episode, India had patiently and quietly asserted their willingness to resolve the issue through diplomatic channels, while China had publicly demanded that talks could not even commence until India withdrew. It turns out they were talking almost from the start.
Lessons learned?
While things may change the only reasonable conclusion that might be drawn is that India have scored a small, but dramatic victory over China. Their concern was that a road would undermine their strategic advantage in the Doklam theatre, and consequently their ability to defend Bhutan. They have so far prevented the road and forced China to return to the status quo ante. China, for their part, underestimated India and have now cut their losses on a deteriorating situation from which they had little to gain and much to lose. The prospect of Narendra Modi not visiting Xiamen for the BRICS summit might have dealt a death blow to that rickety organisation, and would have meant a serious loss of face for Xi.
For the rest of the world, the key lessons that might be learned are twofold: First of all, behind all the bluster and rhetorical brinkmanship, there are pragmatists in Beijing capable of staging a remarkable recovery from the deeply wounded feelings of the Chinese people. This indicates that for all the careful footsteps diplomats engage in to sooth tensions a better approach is simply to remain quiet but firm.
Secondly, concentrate on the facts on the ground. Talking means not doing and for China it clearly serves as a useful distraction. But as India has shown, if you signal your intentions clearly and follow through without too much fuss China are likely to take you much more seriously in the end. Next week Xiamen will no doubt witness the proof of that in the smiling, confident figure of Narendra Modi, the man who made China step back and say thank you.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dougla...china-stands-down-over-doklam/2/#28cad2bf7570
