The International Spectator - Pakistan must and will play a greater role in the Middle East
Pakistan’s role in the Middle East, relative to Islamabad’s power and geographical proximity to the region, is tiny. In fact, one would be hard-pressed to identify a single Middle Eastern issue in which Pakistan can be identified as a key stakeholder, let alone an active actor whose agency is proportionate to its size.
This reality must and will change. Pakistan must, and inevitably will become a Middle Eastern power that projects influence deep into the Arab and Muslim worlds.
The necessity of this role is neatly encapsulated, firstly, by the sheer strength of Pakistan and the extent of its natural sphere of influence. One of only nine nuclear-armed states, with over a hundred and twenty nuclear warheads, and possessing the seventh largest army in the world, Pakistan’s role is naturally expansive and broad. All states with proportionate power capability tend to look confidently outwards unto the world with assertive tendencies, something Pakistan has seemingly not pursued sufficiently to its west.
Secondly, Pakistan is, by virtue of geography, a natural actor in the Middle East. Strategically cradled at the world’s historical centre of economic gravity, it sits in geographic proximity to the markets and routes of Asia’s heartland and to the Middle East. The latter constitutes natural and sympathetic strategic depth in the face of Pakistan’s traditional geopolitical threats in South Asia. After all, Karachi, the country’s most populous city, is geographically closer to the United Arab Emirates than it is to New Delhi, or even to Islamabad. Moreover, the country’s southern coast looks onto the Gulf of Oman, a strategic entrance into the Persian Gulf from the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean, and thus a key artery of global oil transport to energy-hungry Asia.
Pakistan also has much to gain economically from the Middle East. Faced with chronic energy shortages and an underdeveloped economy, the country could benefit from the immense savings and resources of the Gulf States and, to a lesser extent, Turkey. These countries are generally endowed with healthy economies and their slice of global GDP is growing – thus providing enhanced trade and investment opportunities relative to the rest of the world. Pakistan can also constitute a transit point between China and the Gulf States, whose economies are becoming increasingly integrated. Moreover, as Iran shows signs of being reabsorbed into the international community, potential for cooperation with Tehran grows.
Due to Pakistan’s relatively advanced industrial and military sectors, it can also position itself as a dependable exporter to the arms-laden Gulf States, who are often stifled by US arms export regulations. Oman, the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have some of the largest military expenditures, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP, in the world. Pakistan’s JF-17, a fourth generation fighter, can thus be a relatively cheap addition to the Arab region’s air forces, as is the case with the Al-Khalid main battle tanks. Pakistan, on the condition of greater strategic interplay with these states, can derive immense benefit from potential investment and co-production with them as these states continue to be involved in the Middle East’s seemingly intractable regional contests.
Interestingly, these very contests have assured that Pakistan will play a greater role in the Middle East, particularly at the behest of Saudi outreach. The Kingdom’s strategic disposition towards hedging away from dependence on the United States, in the face of Iran and as a result of perceived American weakness on enforcing its ‘red line’ in Syria, has meant that Pakistan is an increasingly important part of Riyadh’s security strategy. As an elaborate recent visit in February, 2014 by Crown Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz demonstrates, the Saudis see very significant potential for cooperation with Pakistan across a host of defence and economic sectors.
For the foreseeable future, this is most likely to manifest in further cash grants and Pakistani involvement in Syria. A $1.5 billion ‘gift’ of a promised $3 billion from the Saudis has helped prop up the rupee and the Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves, and has been accompanied by anticipated major investment projects. On the other hand, Pakistani-produced weapons, including the HJ-8 anti-tank missile system, have made their way in the hands of Syrian rebels, most notably in the southern city of Deraa, where Saudi Arabia’s influence with the Syrian opposition is strong.
These developments amount to a geopolitical entrance for Pakistan into the Middle East, which will and must evolve. In the process, Pakistan ought to identify its own interests and those of its people in traversing its next steps in the Middle East, which is inherently dispositioned towards instability. But the fact remains that Pakistan must ultimately take those steps and exert itself in the region.
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Would appreciate feedback here or on Twitter - where my account is @MrHalimi
Pakistan’s role in the Middle East, relative to Islamabad’s power and geographical proximity to the region, is tiny. In fact, one would be hard-pressed to identify a single Middle Eastern issue in which Pakistan can be identified as a key stakeholder, let alone an active actor whose agency is proportionate to its size.
This reality must and will change. Pakistan must, and inevitably will become a Middle Eastern power that projects influence deep into the Arab and Muslim worlds.
The necessity of this role is neatly encapsulated, firstly, by the sheer strength of Pakistan and the extent of its natural sphere of influence. One of only nine nuclear-armed states, with over a hundred and twenty nuclear warheads, and possessing the seventh largest army in the world, Pakistan’s role is naturally expansive and broad. All states with proportionate power capability tend to look confidently outwards unto the world with assertive tendencies, something Pakistan has seemingly not pursued sufficiently to its west.
Secondly, Pakistan is, by virtue of geography, a natural actor in the Middle East. Strategically cradled at the world’s historical centre of economic gravity, it sits in geographic proximity to the markets and routes of Asia’s heartland and to the Middle East. The latter constitutes natural and sympathetic strategic depth in the face of Pakistan’s traditional geopolitical threats in South Asia. After all, Karachi, the country’s most populous city, is geographically closer to the United Arab Emirates than it is to New Delhi, or even to Islamabad. Moreover, the country’s southern coast looks onto the Gulf of Oman, a strategic entrance into the Persian Gulf from the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean, and thus a key artery of global oil transport to energy-hungry Asia.
Pakistan also has much to gain economically from the Middle East. Faced with chronic energy shortages and an underdeveloped economy, the country could benefit from the immense savings and resources of the Gulf States and, to a lesser extent, Turkey. These countries are generally endowed with healthy economies and their slice of global GDP is growing – thus providing enhanced trade and investment opportunities relative to the rest of the world. Pakistan can also constitute a transit point between China and the Gulf States, whose economies are becoming increasingly integrated. Moreover, as Iran shows signs of being reabsorbed into the international community, potential for cooperation with Tehran grows.
Due to Pakistan’s relatively advanced industrial and military sectors, it can also position itself as a dependable exporter to the arms-laden Gulf States, who are often stifled by US arms export regulations. Oman, the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have some of the largest military expenditures, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP, in the world. Pakistan’s JF-17, a fourth generation fighter, can thus be a relatively cheap addition to the Arab region’s air forces, as is the case with the Al-Khalid main battle tanks. Pakistan, on the condition of greater strategic interplay with these states, can derive immense benefit from potential investment and co-production with them as these states continue to be involved in the Middle East’s seemingly intractable regional contests.
Interestingly, these very contests have assured that Pakistan will play a greater role in the Middle East, particularly at the behest of Saudi outreach. The Kingdom’s strategic disposition towards hedging away from dependence on the United States, in the face of Iran and as a result of perceived American weakness on enforcing its ‘red line’ in Syria, has meant that Pakistan is an increasingly important part of Riyadh’s security strategy. As an elaborate recent visit in February, 2014 by Crown Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz demonstrates, the Saudis see very significant potential for cooperation with Pakistan across a host of defence and economic sectors.
For the foreseeable future, this is most likely to manifest in further cash grants and Pakistani involvement in Syria. A $1.5 billion ‘gift’ of a promised $3 billion from the Saudis has helped prop up the rupee and the Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves, and has been accompanied by anticipated major investment projects. On the other hand, Pakistani-produced weapons, including the HJ-8 anti-tank missile system, have made their way in the hands of Syrian rebels, most notably in the southern city of Deraa, where Saudi Arabia’s influence with the Syrian opposition is strong.
These developments amount to a geopolitical entrance for Pakistan into the Middle East, which will and must evolve. In the process, Pakistan ought to identify its own interests and those of its people in traversing its next steps in the Middle East, which is inherently dispositioned towards instability. But the fact remains that Pakistan must ultimately take those steps and exert itself in the region.
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Would appreciate feedback here or on Twitter - where my account is @MrHalimi
