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Read more at: Muzaffarnagar riot politics: Why SP's loss could be Congress' gain | Firstpost
Rest assured, the communal conflagration in Muzaffarnagar wont be the last one in Uttar Pradesh before the general elections next year.
Theres too much at stake in the state for political parties the BJP has to secure at least 50 seats out of the 80 to be a strong claimant to power at the centre; the Samajwadi Party has to secure as many if not more seats if it wants to be the potential leader of a third front, and the Congress needs to do better than its 22 seats in 2009 to stay in the hunt for power.
In the perverse realpolitik that we are familiar with now, everyone has a chance to gain, by design or default, if there is communal polarisation.
So who stands to benefit most from the cases communal violence in UP? Going by the evidence, both BJP and the SP benefit from communal violence and the subsequent polarization of votes. The former secures a big chunk of Hindu votes, while the latter gets Muslim votes on the rebound. Ever since the arrival of the SP on the political scene in the state, the Congress is no longer a favourite among the Muslim community. Yet it also gains in case there is intelligent voting against the BJP.
In 2009, the party had secured 24 percent of the Muslim votes, compared to 30 percent for the SP and 18 percent for the BSP. The strategic voting in favour of secular parties saw the BJP relegated to 10 seats.
This time, however, the equation might change to the advantage of the Congress at the cost of the SP. This has to do with factors both local and national.
The Muslims, deeply divided along caste lines within, are not the monolithic vote bank as they are painted to be by many political analysts. The BJP is not the party of choice for the community it accounts for 20 percent of the voters and has the potential to make or mar the prospects of candidates in at least 25 seats if it votes strategically. But it votes differently when it comes to secular parties in different elections.
Yet, when theres a perceived threat to the community, the votes consolidate in favour of one party. The party on the receiving end of the votes this time, could well be the Congress.
At the local level, the community which voted resoundingly for the SP in 2012 assembly elections seems to have lost faith in the party. According to Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadavs own admission in the state assembly, there have been 27 cases of communal violence in the state ever since the party came to power. Three of them, he said, were of serious nature. This was before the Muzaffarnagar incident.
In most of these cases, the Muslims were at the receiving end. More than 45,000 refugees from the recent communal violence could not be good news for the SP.
A few months ago, a Muslim police officer was killed in an attack by supporters of Raja Bhaiya, an MLA known to be close to the partys leadership, and the government was found wanting in its action by the community. BJP leader Varun Gandhi got a clean chit from the court in the communal hate speech case after all witnesses turned hostile under mysterious circumstances.
Moreover, the government has failed keep its promise to withdraw terror charges slapped on Muslim youths by the Mayawati dispensation. Frustration is building up in the community and its leaders are getting increasingly critical of the Akhilesh-Mulayam duo, who seem to have abandoned their role as protector. Come the elections, they might look at other options seriously.
The BSP is a good alternative when it comes to the assembly elections. But with the possibility of the Narendra Modi-led BJP grabbing power at the centre looming large, the Congress option works better. The BJP has almost washed its hands of the community and looks determined to experiment with the Gujarat model of electioneering in UP. That is by courting the majority community aggressively.
The appointment of Modis confidante Amit Shah as the campaign chief was the first indication of this strategy. The partys support to the chaurasi koti parikrama by the VHP was another. The parikrama sought to revive the Ayodhya Ram temple movement by mobilising sadhus and lay Hindus. It ended in a whimper as there was no public support for it but the move made the BJPs game plan clear: it wanted communal polarisation before the elections. The incidents of communal violence fit into the larger picture.
The community has reason to be wary of the developments. Moreover, its aversion to Modi could make it go for the Congress. For it voting for Mulayams party makes little sense since he might not be in a position to be part of the government at the centre after the 2014 elections. The Congress could thus be a gainer by default.
For now, expect the SP to go on hyperactive mode to win over the community by playing on their fears. It wont even mind a few more communal incidents.
Every party loves some good communal violence. Its perverse, but it is true.
Read more at: Muzaffarnagar riot politics: Why SP's loss could be Congress' gain | Firstpost
Read more at: Muzaffarnagar riot politics: Why SP's loss could be Congress' gain | Firstpost
Rest assured, the communal conflagration in Muzaffarnagar wont be the last one in Uttar Pradesh before the general elections next year.
Theres too much at stake in the state for political parties the BJP has to secure at least 50 seats out of the 80 to be a strong claimant to power at the centre; the Samajwadi Party has to secure as many if not more seats if it wants to be the potential leader of a third front, and the Congress needs to do better than its 22 seats in 2009 to stay in the hunt for power.
In the perverse realpolitik that we are familiar with now, everyone has a chance to gain, by design or default, if there is communal polarisation.
So who stands to benefit most from the cases communal violence in UP? Going by the evidence, both BJP and the SP benefit from communal violence and the subsequent polarization of votes. The former secures a big chunk of Hindu votes, while the latter gets Muslim votes on the rebound. Ever since the arrival of the SP on the political scene in the state, the Congress is no longer a favourite among the Muslim community. Yet it also gains in case there is intelligent voting against the BJP.
In 2009, the party had secured 24 percent of the Muslim votes, compared to 30 percent for the SP and 18 percent for the BSP. The strategic voting in favour of secular parties saw the BJP relegated to 10 seats.
This time, however, the equation might change to the advantage of the Congress at the cost of the SP. This has to do with factors both local and national.
The Muslims, deeply divided along caste lines within, are not the monolithic vote bank as they are painted to be by many political analysts. The BJP is not the party of choice for the community it accounts for 20 percent of the voters and has the potential to make or mar the prospects of candidates in at least 25 seats if it votes strategically. But it votes differently when it comes to secular parties in different elections.
Yet, when theres a perceived threat to the community, the votes consolidate in favour of one party. The party on the receiving end of the votes this time, could well be the Congress.
At the local level, the community which voted resoundingly for the SP in 2012 assembly elections seems to have lost faith in the party. According to Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadavs own admission in the state assembly, there have been 27 cases of communal violence in the state ever since the party came to power. Three of them, he said, were of serious nature. This was before the Muzaffarnagar incident.
In most of these cases, the Muslims were at the receiving end. More than 45,000 refugees from the recent communal violence could not be good news for the SP.
A few months ago, a Muslim police officer was killed in an attack by supporters of Raja Bhaiya, an MLA known to be close to the partys leadership, and the government was found wanting in its action by the community. BJP leader Varun Gandhi got a clean chit from the court in the communal hate speech case after all witnesses turned hostile under mysterious circumstances.
Moreover, the government has failed keep its promise to withdraw terror charges slapped on Muslim youths by the Mayawati dispensation. Frustration is building up in the community and its leaders are getting increasingly critical of the Akhilesh-Mulayam duo, who seem to have abandoned their role as protector. Come the elections, they might look at other options seriously.
The BSP is a good alternative when it comes to the assembly elections. But with the possibility of the Narendra Modi-led BJP grabbing power at the centre looming large, the Congress option works better. The BJP has almost washed its hands of the community and looks determined to experiment with the Gujarat model of electioneering in UP. That is by courting the majority community aggressively.
The appointment of Modis confidante Amit Shah as the campaign chief was the first indication of this strategy. The partys support to the chaurasi koti parikrama by the VHP was another. The parikrama sought to revive the Ayodhya Ram temple movement by mobilising sadhus and lay Hindus. It ended in a whimper as there was no public support for it but the move made the BJPs game plan clear: it wanted communal polarisation before the elections. The incidents of communal violence fit into the larger picture.
The community has reason to be wary of the developments. Moreover, its aversion to Modi could make it go for the Congress. For it voting for Mulayams party makes little sense since he might not be in a position to be part of the government at the centre after the 2014 elections. The Congress could thus be a gainer by default.
For now, expect the SP to go on hyperactive mode to win over the community by playing on their fears. It wont even mind a few more communal incidents.
Every party loves some good communal violence. Its perverse, but it is true.
Read more at: Muzaffarnagar riot politics: Why SP's loss could be Congress' gain | Firstpost
