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Minus-3 Formula?
by Najam Sethi
December 13, 2019
For a year and more the PMLN opposition has been trying to sit together with the PTI government to stitch up a working relationship that enables parliament, government and opposition to do their respective jobs efficiently as envisaged in the Constitution. But the “selected” Prime Minister, Imran Khan, has consistently derailed all such efforts. Mr Khan refuses to consult and develop a consensus with the Opposition on various matters as required under the Constitution. That is why the Election Commission of Pakistan is non-functional and prospects for necessary electoral reform are dim. He refuses to enable the Public Accounts Committee to do its job because its head is a PMLN nominee as required under the Constitution. That is why audits of public sector companies by the Auditor General of Pakistan are in cold storage. He has ordered the Speaker of the National Assembly not to facilitate the production of incarcerated (but not convicted) PMLN leaders in Parliament. That is why Parliamentary proceedings are acrimonious and susceptible to disruption and walkouts. Worse, Mr Khan is using the FIA to settle personal and political scores and leaning on the NAB to hound the Opposition. For all these reasons the Opposition, which controls the Senate, has spiked various attempts by the government to bulldoze contentious Acts and Presidential Ordinances. It’s a sorry state of affairs that gives Pakistani “democracy” a bad name.
The PMLN has finally taken a decision with far reaching consequences. Its leading spokesman, Khawaja Asif has announced that the PMLN will no longer make any attempt to work with the government to resolve outstanding issues of national interest. In the immediate context, this means that the PMLN will not cooperate with the government to make appropriate laws to extend the tenure of the Army Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, as required by the Supreme Court; nor will it waste its time trying to nominate a consensus Chief Election Commissioner. Instead, another spokesman, Ahsan Iqbal, has announced that the party’s focus will now shift to maneuvering for an “In-House” change in parliament as a step in the direction of free and fair elections as soon as possible.
In effect, this is the notorious “Minus-1” formula that has been floating around for some months. All it requires is for the allies of the PTI like the MQM, GDA, PMLQ etc. to desert the ruling coalition, send Imran Khan packing and elect a new Leader of the House in charge of a “national” or “unity” government for a specified period of time before calling fresh elections.
But this is easier said than done. The allies of the PTI were herded into its stables by none other than the powerful Miltablishment and will not bolt until the same Miltablishment gives a signal. How likely is that?
Until now, the Miltablishment has pulled out all the stops to protect and defend its political engineering in support of the PTI. That is why, despite periodic reminders of the abysmal performance of the PTI, its spokesmen are constantly regurgitating the “same page” mantra to counter naysayers. It is hard for the Miltablishment to admit that its great strategists and tacticians have failed in their attempts to establish “Naya Pakistan”, and that the option of reverting to “Purana Pakistan” makes them anxious.
But the fissures in the relationship between state and society are beginning to show. The Miltablishment is having to shoulder the blame and burden of the PTI’s dismal performance. Lay folks are flaying the Miltablishment openly and unabashedly in its home province of Punjab, compelling it to question the wisdom of its political engineering. Indeed, it is in the Punjab that the PTI’s performance is most pathetic since the PM’s handpicked chief minister, Usman Buzdar, is a shambolic shadow of Shahbaz Sharif, the dynamic PMLN chief minister renowned for his meritorious achievements.
A fresh source of tension has now erupted. A simple matter of documenting the correct procedure for notifying the extension of the army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, has been blown into a full-fledged crisis that has hugely embarrassed him and simultaneously created uncertainty about his fate. This is the very stuff of conspiracy theories. In this case, it’s a moot point now whether Mr Khan wants to give the extension or not, and how he intends to proceed in this matter. From General Bajwa’s point of view, the matter should not have arisen in the first place but since it has cropped up it should be resolved asap and with the support of the Opposition so that it is committed to a national consensus. Predictably, the PTI government has compelled the Opposition to refuse such support and appears to be dragging its feet on resolving the issue quickly and efficiently.
It is significant, too, that Nawaz and Maryam Sharif, the two most outspoken anti-Miltablishment leaders of the PMLN, are finally conspicuous by their silence. One is already out of the country while the other is perched to fly off. This “Minus-2”’ factor appears to be setting the stage for Shahbaz Sharif, the pro-Miltablishment PMLN leader for all seasons, to negotiate the “Minus-1” option with confidence.
https://www.thefridaytimes.com/minus-3-formula/
by Najam Sethi
December 13, 2019
For a year and more the PMLN opposition has been trying to sit together with the PTI government to stitch up a working relationship that enables parliament, government and opposition to do their respective jobs efficiently as envisaged in the Constitution. But the “selected” Prime Minister, Imran Khan, has consistently derailed all such efforts. Mr Khan refuses to consult and develop a consensus with the Opposition on various matters as required under the Constitution. That is why the Election Commission of Pakistan is non-functional and prospects for necessary electoral reform are dim. He refuses to enable the Public Accounts Committee to do its job because its head is a PMLN nominee as required under the Constitution. That is why audits of public sector companies by the Auditor General of Pakistan are in cold storage. He has ordered the Speaker of the National Assembly not to facilitate the production of incarcerated (but not convicted) PMLN leaders in Parliament. That is why Parliamentary proceedings are acrimonious and susceptible to disruption and walkouts. Worse, Mr Khan is using the FIA to settle personal and political scores and leaning on the NAB to hound the Opposition. For all these reasons the Opposition, which controls the Senate, has spiked various attempts by the government to bulldoze contentious Acts and Presidential Ordinances. It’s a sorry state of affairs that gives Pakistani “democracy” a bad name.
The PMLN has finally taken a decision with far reaching consequences. Its leading spokesman, Khawaja Asif has announced that the PMLN will no longer make any attempt to work with the government to resolve outstanding issues of national interest. In the immediate context, this means that the PMLN will not cooperate with the government to make appropriate laws to extend the tenure of the Army Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, as required by the Supreme Court; nor will it waste its time trying to nominate a consensus Chief Election Commissioner. Instead, another spokesman, Ahsan Iqbal, has announced that the party’s focus will now shift to maneuvering for an “In-House” change in parliament as a step in the direction of free and fair elections as soon as possible.
In effect, this is the notorious “Minus-1” formula that has been floating around for some months. All it requires is for the allies of the PTI like the MQM, GDA, PMLQ etc. to desert the ruling coalition, send Imran Khan packing and elect a new Leader of the House in charge of a “national” or “unity” government for a specified period of time before calling fresh elections.
But this is easier said than done. The allies of the PTI were herded into its stables by none other than the powerful Miltablishment and will not bolt until the same Miltablishment gives a signal. How likely is that?
Until now, the Miltablishment has pulled out all the stops to protect and defend its political engineering in support of the PTI. That is why, despite periodic reminders of the abysmal performance of the PTI, its spokesmen are constantly regurgitating the “same page” mantra to counter naysayers. It is hard for the Miltablishment to admit that its great strategists and tacticians have failed in their attempts to establish “Naya Pakistan”, and that the option of reverting to “Purana Pakistan” makes them anxious.
But the fissures in the relationship between state and society are beginning to show. The Miltablishment is having to shoulder the blame and burden of the PTI’s dismal performance. Lay folks are flaying the Miltablishment openly and unabashedly in its home province of Punjab, compelling it to question the wisdom of its political engineering. Indeed, it is in the Punjab that the PTI’s performance is most pathetic since the PM’s handpicked chief minister, Usman Buzdar, is a shambolic shadow of Shahbaz Sharif, the dynamic PMLN chief minister renowned for his meritorious achievements.
A fresh source of tension has now erupted. A simple matter of documenting the correct procedure for notifying the extension of the army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, has been blown into a full-fledged crisis that has hugely embarrassed him and simultaneously created uncertainty about his fate. This is the very stuff of conspiracy theories. In this case, it’s a moot point now whether Mr Khan wants to give the extension or not, and how he intends to proceed in this matter. From General Bajwa’s point of view, the matter should not have arisen in the first place but since it has cropped up it should be resolved asap and with the support of the Opposition so that it is committed to a national consensus. Predictably, the PTI government has compelled the Opposition to refuse such support and appears to be dragging its feet on resolving the issue quickly and efficiently.
It is significant, too, that Nawaz and Maryam Sharif, the two most outspoken anti-Miltablishment leaders of the PMLN, are finally conspicuous by their silence. One is already out of the country while the other is perched to fly off. This “Minus-2”’ factor appears to be setting the stage for Shahbaz Sharif, the pro-Miltablishment PMLN leader for all seasons, to negotiate the “Minus-1” option with confidence.
https://www.thefridaytimes.com/minus-3-formula/
