StormShadow
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The U.S., Japan and India on Monday held their first trilateral security meeting to discuss security issues in East Asia, and the Washington event is set to be the start of a trend. Beijing is predictably unhappy about this convergence of the world's superpower, the second-largest economy in Asia, and the other large developing country. But China must prepare itself for more such meetings, because China's own actions are bringing them about.
Technically, China's rise did not feature at the meeting. Security of sea lanes of communication, coordination of humanitarian assistance and global terrorism were the focus. But China was the unspoken subtext. After all, one of the biggest threats to free navigation in Asia is China's growing assertiveness in pursuing unreasonable territorial claims in the South China Sea and in various island disputes with Japan. A pressing humanitarian problem is North Korea, a totalitarian state sustained by Beijing's patronage. India faces a serious terrorism threat from Pakistan, another friend of China.
The question facing the three powers that met in Washington is how to manage these concerns. Traditionally the American presence in the region on its own has been a strong guarantor of stability. But economic constraints back home increasingly will force the U.S. to seek a new arrangement. This is likely to include reliance on regional allies to carry more of the security burden, as is the case with America's North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies in Europe.
In line with this strategy, Washington has encouraged a greater role for India in East and Southeast Asia. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, during her visit to India earlier this year, asked India "not just to look east, but to engage east and act east as well." India has responded with a renewed focus on its Look East Policy, which has evolved from economic and trade linkages to a gradual strengthening of security ties.
India's ties with Japan, in particular, have been gaining momentum thanks to growing enthusiasm in both New Delhi and Tokyo. India's booming economy makes it an attractive economic partner for Japan as the latter tries to overcome long years of stagnation. Japan also is reassessing its traditionally passive security stance and looking for opportunities to play a greater role while staying within the bounds of its non-aggression commitments. Of all Japan's neighbors, India seems most willing to acknowledge Japan's central role in guaranteeing Asian security.
Moreover, a new generation of political leaders in India and Japan view each other with fresh eyes, allowing for a break from past suspicion.
China has inadvertently hastened this process along.
Both India and Japan are well aware of China's not so subtle attempts at preventing their rise. It is most clearly reflected in China's opposition to the expansion of the United Nations Security Council to include India and Japan as permanent members.
This has set the stage for this week's meeting. It was an opportunity for Japan and India to further cement their bilateral ties while also discussing ways to coordinate security efforts with the U.S. While no major initiatives resulted (none were expected), there was some progress on joint naval exercises.
Nor is this the only trilateral meeting on the horizon. There are growing calls for another initiative involving the U.S., Australia and India. There is a distinct convergence of interests among these three countries across of a range of issues including the security of global commons, maritime security and counterterrorism. Trilateral coordination would be the next logical step.
The parties are closer than at any recent time to such an arrangement. Australia's Labor government last month reversed a decades-old ban on uranium sales to India. Australia and India are ramping up their defense ties with a joint approach in tackling piracy, increasing the number of port visits by their naval ships, and a more structured defense dialogue. This is a significant step in overcoming the longstanding neglect, on both sides, of Australia-India relations.
Meanwhile, Canberra is ramping up its own alliance-building. It has reinvigorated its longstanding alliance with the U.S. by agreeing last month to station 2,500 marines in a U.S. base in northern Australia, and has reached out to Japan for enhanced defense cooperation. It is therefore not surprising that Australia is interested in a U.S.-India-Australia trilateral initiative as it seeks out new partners in the region.
All of this is a worry for China. Beijing has decried the "Cold War mentality" it claims is evinced by such moves. With respect to a U.S.-Australia-India grouping, Canberra and New Delhi have been quick to publicly downplay the prospect for now, for fear of needlessly antagonizing Beijing.
China remains a critical economic partner for all countries in the region. 
Clearly any trilateral meeting could not feature China as a chief agenda item. The more subtle path followed by this week's U.S.-Japan-India conference is more likely.
But there's no escaping China's own role in bringing about this security realignment. Beijing's expansive maritime sovereignty claims; its aggressive behavior pursuing them; its support for states such as North Korea and Pakistan; and its nontransparent military build-up all raise questions about its willingness to act as a responsible stakeholder in the region. Beijing will have to come to terms with more meetings such as this week's.
Harsh V. Pant: Meeting the China Challenge - WSJ.com
Technically, China's rise did not feature at the meeting. Security of sea lanes of communication, coordination of humanitarian assistance and global terrorism were the focus. But China was the unspoken subtext. After all, one of the biggest threats to free navigation in Asia is China's growing assertiveness in pursuing unreasonable territorial claims in the South China Sea and in various island disputes with Japan. A pressing humanitarian problem is North Korea, a totalitarian state sustained by Beijing's patronage. India faces a serious terrorism threat from Pakistan, another friend of China.
The question facing the three powers that met in Washington is how to manage these concerns. Traditionally the American presence in the region on its own has been a strong guarantor of stability. But economic constraints back home increasingly will force the U.S. to seek a new arrangement. This is likely to include reliance on regional allies to carry more of the security burden, as is the case with America's North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies in Europe.
In line with this strategy, Washington has encouraged a greater role for India in East and Southeast Asia. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, during her visit to India earlier this year, asked India "not just to look east, but to engage east and act east as well." India has responded with a renewed focus on its Look East Policy, which has evolved from economic and trade linkages to a gradual strengthening of security ties.
India's ties with Japan, in particular, have been gaining momentum thanks to growing enthusiasm in both New Delhi and Tokyo. India's booming economy makes it an attractive economic partner for Japan as the latter tries to overcome long years of stagnation. Japan also is reassessing its traditionally passive security stance and looking for opportunities to play a greater role while staying within the bounds of its non-aggression commitments. Of all Japan's neighbors, India seems most willing to acknowledge Japan's central role in guaranteeing Asian security.
Moreover, a new generation of political leaders in India and Japan view each other with fresh eyes, allowing for a break from past suspicion.
China has inadvertently hastened this process along. Both India and Japan are well aware of China's not so subtle attempts at preventing their rise. It is most clearly reflected in China's opposition to the expansion of the United Nations Security Council to include India and Japan as permanent members. This has set the stage for this week's meeting. It was an opportunity for Japan and India to further cement their bilateral ties while also discussing ways to coordinate security efforts with the U.S. While no major initiatives resulted (none were expected), there was some progress on joint naval exercises.
Nor is this the only trilateral meeting on the horizon. There are growing calls for another initiative involving the U.S., Australia and India. There is a distinct convergence of interests among these three countries across of a range of issues including the security of global commons, maritime security and counterterrorism. Trilateral coordination would be the next logical step.
The parties are closer than at any recent time to such an arrangement. Australia's Labor government last month reversed a decades-old ban on uranium sales to India. Australia and India are ramping up their defense ties with a joint approach in tackling piracy, increasing the number of port visits by their naval ships, and a more structured defense dialogue. This is a significant step in overcoming the longstanding neglect, on both sides, of Australia-India relations.
Meanwhile, Canberra is ramping up its own alliance-building. It has reinvigorated its longstanding alliance with the U.S. by agreeing last month to station 2,500 marines in a U.S. base in northern Australia, and has reached out to Japan for enhanced defense cooperation. It is therefore not surprising that Australia is interested in a U.S.-India-Australia trilateral initiative as it seeks out new partners in the region.
All of this is a worry for China. Beijing has decried the "Cold War mentality" it claims is evinced by such moves. With respect to a U.S.-Australia-India grouping, Canberra and New Delhi have been quick to publicly downplay the prospect for now, for fear of needlessly antagonizing Beijing.
China remains a critical economic partner for all countries in the region. Clearly any trilateral meeting could not feature China as a chief agenda item. The more subtle path followed by this week's U.S.-Japan-India conference is more likely.But there's no escaping China's own role in bringing about this security realignment. Beijing's expansive maritime sovereignty claims; its aggressive behavior pursuing them; its support for states such as North Korea and Pakistan; and its nontransparent military build-up all raise questions about its willingness to act as a responsible stakeholder in the region. Beijing will have to come to terms with more meetings such as this week's.
Harsh V. Pant: Meeting the China Challenge - WSJ.com
