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Maldives Boots Out Pro-China President in Election Surprise

Hamartia Antidote

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-out-pro-china-president-in-election-surprise
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A tiny island nation caught between India and China has elected an opposition candidate as its next president, a surprise result after years of authoritarian rule.

In the Maldives, a tropical tourist destination southwest of India with around 400,000 people, opposition candidate Ibrahim Mohamed Solih declared victory in Sunday’s election after years of government suppression and the jailing of political opponents. Now the U.S. and India have congratulated Solih on his triumph -- and urged the Maldives government of President Abdulla Yameen to recognize the election win.

Yameen conceded defeat, according to a post from his spokesman on Twitter later on Monday, ending speculation about whether he would attempt to hold onto power.

Independent news website Mihaaru.com showed Solih with 58.4 percent of the vote compared to Yameen’s 41.6 percent. Voter turnout was nearly 90 percent, the website said.

This victory in the Maldives, which has a gross domestic product of just $4.6 billion, could have geopolitical significance. Like Sri Lanka, where a state-owned Chinese firm now owns and operates a sensitive port, the Maldives is strategically located in the Indian Ocean and has served as a battleground for India and China as both seek influence in South Asia.

Solih’s Maldivian Democratic Party has taken an anti-China stance. Exiled former Maldives president and party founder Mohamed Nasheed previously told Reuters China has pulled his country into a "debt trap" and that a future opposition-led government would renegotiate Chinese loans. Nasheed said China had provided more than $2.5 billion in loans to the island nation.

In recent years, Yameen -- who declared a state of emergency earlier this year and has jailed both political opponents and judges -- has courted investment from China, as well as Saudi Arabia, since coming to power in 2013. Yet New Delhi, concerned about China’s growing economic presence in South Asia, has been unusually vocal as the situation in the Maldives deteriorated. Ahead of the election, one outspoken member of India’s ruling party, Subramanian Swamy, even suggestedIndia invade the Maldives if the election was rigged. India’s foreign ministry later distanceditself from those comments.

“We heartily congratulate Ibrahim Mohamed Solih on his victory and hope that the Election Commission will officially confirm the result at the earliest,” India’s foreign ministry said in a statement on Monday morning. “This election marks not only the triumph of democratic forces in the Maldives, but also reflects the firm commitment to the values of democracy and the rule of law.”

The U.S., which condemned the state of emergency and criticized Yameen for “democratic backsliding” and jailing opponents, also praised the election and urged the government to respect the vote.

In the longer term, said Constantino Xavier, a foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institution think-tank’s India office, the "China balancing game will continue in the Maldives and other countries in the region."
 
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Chinese never understood the word "Democracy"...... will never understand also.

They think they can buy anything with money.
 
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Pro China president?? Pure propaganda, from western reports it seems that every country on this planet has a pro and anti China president, totally bullshiiit

Western media's mentality about international foreign policies never change and they believe everyone else thinks the same, check out ethnic Mongol Chinese spokeswoman 傅莹 retorting their colonial mindset questions.

 
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In the longer term, said Constantino Xavier, a foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institution think-tank’s India office, the "China balancing game will continue in the Maldives and other countries in the region."

That's it right there, Balancing, China wasn't in control, merely a world power offering its services in exchange for money and a strategic partnership. The people of the Maldives raised the stakes (trying to pull in the Indians) but China will renegotiate when the dust settles.

Lets see if the Indians can match what the Chinese have been offering.
 
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There goes Chinese land grabbing oppurtunities in the Maldives
 
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It will be difficult for Solih to push back against China, even if he has stated an intent to do so.

First, Tourism directly drives 39.6% and indirectly drives 76.6% of Maldives' GDP. (https://www.wttc.org/-/media/files/reports/economic-impact-research/countries-2018/maldives2018.pdf)

Second, China was the largest source of tourists to the Maldives (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_the_Maldives), at nearly 25% of the total. Hence, China can be said to drive 10% of the Maldives' GDP directly, and 17-20% indirectly.

Third, most Chinese tourists arrive around October 1 and the Lunar New Year, which are both off-peak for the next three largest tourist groups (Germany/UK/Italy). As a result, for two months of the year, well over 50% of the Maldives' GDP is directly paid for by Chinese tourism.

Fourth, the Maldives has the 5th lowest current accounts balance as a percent of GDP in the world, at -22.12% in 2017, and has foreign exchange reserves of $780M, or roughly 22% of GDP. Without a constant stream of tourism income and the good graces of international creditors, the Maldives would literally run out of money in slightly over a year (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_...urrent_account_balance_as_a_percentage_of_GDP; https://knoema.com/atlas/Maldives/topics/Economy/Short-term-indicators/Foreign-exchange-reserves).

Because of 1-4, if the Chinese government were to block charter flight approvals or order its airports to cancel flights to the Maldives' during even one of those two periods, the Maldives would go into an instant economic and balance of payments crisis. Given that the Maldives' is a country that relies on imports to fill literally every economic need except fish (http://www.fao.org/3/a-bp579e.pdf), and what fish it catches is done with boats running on imported fuel, any Maldives government that triggers a payments crisis would risk inducing a humanitarian crisis in short order.

It will be interesting to see if the Maldivian people are still as enthusiastic about the MDP in 2019, whether Solih has to suppress starving protesters sometime that year, and if so, whether the Western press will still claim he is an exemplar of democracy at that point. But until then, congratulations to the people of the Maldives on a successful election; hopefully, their representatives continue to successfully improve the Maldivian peoples' welfare.

Sarcasm aside, my hunch is that Solih will reach an accommodation with Beijing, rapidly, that gives him some face-saving but immaterial concessions, but it is unlikely he can do much to alter the trajectory of the relationship. If the US and India are betting that Solih could somehow cancel a bunch of Chinese infrastructure projects or prevent China from establishing a SIGINT presence in the Indian Ocean, they will be sadly disappointed.
 
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Pro China president?? Pure propaganda, from western reports it seems that every country on this planet has a pro and anti China president, totally bullshiiit

Western media's mentality about international foreign policies never change and they believe everyone else thinks the same, check out ethnic Mongol Chinese spokeswoman 傅莹 retorting their colonial mindset questions.


you guys can't understand about democracy and freedom of speach, Because of your dictator ship mind set also afraid of your government
 
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Its funny how these Island nations take China for a ride. Get them to invest in infrastructure first and then boot them out. First it was the Sri Lankans and now the Maldivians.

China needs to correct its foreign policy when it comes to dealing with democratic countries.

@haidian :azn:
 
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Its funny how these Island nations take China for a ride. Get them to invest in infrastructure first and then boot them out. First it was the Sri Lankans and now the Maldivians.

China needs to correct its foreign policy when it comes to dealing with democratic countries.

@haidian :azn:
They got infrastructure and we got money, what's wrong with it? We are doing business around the world, that's what we do in every country. common sense?

you guys can't understand about democracy and freedom of speach, Because of your dictator ship mind set also afraid of your government
India is the best, live in your dream land.

China never gets favors, we win contracts around the world by quality and cost effectiveness, China is still the king in engineering. If Indians can't outbid China for construction projects, that's your own problem, don't blame China for that.

China needs to correct its foreign policy when it comes to dealing with democratic countries.

@haidian :azn:

We have many projects in so called democratic countries, including UK and US railways, they didn't choose us because they love us, they didn't choose you Indians to build those projects becasue they hate you. Indians should learn the common sense way to do business. Don't blame China for everything you lost.
 
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India is the best, live in your dream land.

China never gets favors, we win contracts around the world by quality and cost effectiveness, China is still the king in engineering. If Indians can't outbid China for construction projects, that's your own problem, don't blame China for that.

you are not winning the contract, it's all part of your OBOR project which you lend money to other country with high interest and supply the goods and man power from china and take the money back, when they can't pay back then take the completed project to your control,

there is no local manufacturing setup in any of OBOR country
 
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