Lower India economic growth forecasts for fiscal years 2013, 2014

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HSBC further cut its India growth forecast for the current and next fiscal years, saying the slowdown in the economy has become more structural than cyclical.

HSBC cut its GDP forecast for the year ending in March to 5.2 per cent from 5.7 per cent, and its forecast for the next fiscal year to 6.2 per cent from 6.9 per cent, according to a report released on Thursday.

"We think the reform process will take time and it will likely be another three years before growth returns to 8 per cent on a sustained basis," it said.

HSBC had previously cut its India growth forecasts for fiscal 2013 and 2014 in September.

Fitch also reiterated on Tuesday its "negative" outlook on India's sovereign credit rating, citing concerns about slowing economic growth, persistent inflationary pressures and an uncertain fiscal outlook.

The warning comes after data last week showed the country's current account deficit widened to a record high in the September quarter.

HSBC cuts India economic growth forecasts for fiscal years 2013, 2014 - The Economic Times

 

[Chak Bamu]

The only way to keep Indian economy from sagging further is to have peace with Pakistan and expand trade. GOI understands this, but emotional masses do not.

By the same token, though Pakistan's economy is supposed to expand faster in the coming years, reductions in tensions with India would certainly help.

 

[Koovie]

The only way to keep Indian economy from sagging further is to have peace with Pakistan and expand trade. GOI understands this, but emotional masses do not.

By the same token, though Pakistan's economy is supposed to expand faster in the coming years, reductions in tensions with India would certainly help.

1. This is a forecast, lets wait for the actual result.
2. The world faces a recession and our is in a very weak position to implement new economic reforms.
3. I agree that we need to improve trade. But it will be for strengthening peace, not our economy. It wont hurt us if we dont trade with you.
4. What we need is more liberalization.

 

[kawaraj]

I bet inflation figures will rebound sharply in the coming months. Really leaves no leeway for RBI to ease the monetary. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp. is correct that the problem's in the structural not the cyclical. Reform is to free the trade barriers agaist the foreign firms to ever lure Japanse, US and Chinese investors and ease the government oversight, which has been virtually crippled by buearcracy and corruptions.

This rape effect has seriously damaged Indian image among world busunessman if UPA gov does nothing to improve the economy will be further hurt. Next year 6 percen growth is something of mission impossible.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Different institutions say different things. Just a few days ago I read a report from a US bank that was very optimistic for India in the next CY FY and predicated 6.8% growth. This is guess work at best.

 

[Rocky25]

The only way to keep Indian economy from sagging further is to have peace with Pakistan and expand trade. GOI understands this, but emotional masses do not.

By the same token, though Pakistan's economy is supposed to expand faster in the coming years, reductions in tensions with India would certainly help.

Indian economy is at the mercy of trade with Pakistan.... Heights of stupidity... We are not the one who is buying Pakistani goods from Dubai!

 

[arp2041]

I bet inflation figures will rebound sharply in the coming months. Really leaves no leeway for RBI to ease the monetary. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp. is correct that the problem's in the structural not the cyclical. Reform is to free the trade barriers agaist the foreign firms to ever lure Japanse, US and Chinese investors and ease the government oversight, which has been virtually crippled by buearcracy and corruptions.

This rape effect has seriously damaged Indian image among world busunessman if UPA gov does nothing to improve the economy will be further hurt. Next year 6 percen growth is something of mission impossible.

Any Proof??

+ This should be in the sticky section.

Besides I think that the growth for this fiscal will be b/w 5.5% to 6% b'coz the first two quarters of this fiscal witnessed 5.5% & 5.3% growth rate respectively, now with some reform measures & other steps taken by GOI, the growth figures should only rise from here & not fall. For next fiscal i think we should wait for this fiscal's final figures to come out before any predictions can be made.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Most analysts seem to agree that Q2-3 2012 were the low point for the Indiaj economy and that everything should be up from then on.

 

[Chak Bamu]

Indian economy is at the mercy of trade with Pakistan.... Heights of stupidity... We are not the one who is buying Pakistani goods from Dubai!

The drop in growth of India shows where Indian economy is headed. Latest figures have revised short term growth forecast downwards. Manufacturing sector has gone down slightly with a contraction of 0.1%: IIP contracts 0.1% in November 2012, boosts odds for rate cut - NDTVProfit.com

Exports are down 1.9%: December trade deficit narrows to $17.7 billion, exports fall 1.9% - NDTVProfit.com

The fastest fix for India's economy may be by having free trade with Pakistan. That is why India is eager to get MFN status from Pakistan.

Learn to read. I never said that Indian economy is at the mercy of trade with Pakistan. It is just your ego making you see things that are'nt really there.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Mr. Troll, just a look at the rapid drop in growth of India shows where Indian economy is headed. Latest figures have revised short term growth forecast downwards. Manufacturing sector has gone down slightly with a contraction of 0.1%: IIP contracts 0.1% in November 2012, boosts odds for rate cut - NDTVProfit.com

Exports are down 1.9%: December trade deficit narrows to $17.7 billion, exports fall 1.9% - NDTVProfit.com

The fastest fix for India's economy may be by having free trade with Pakistan. That is why India is eager to get MFN status from Pakistan.

Learn to read. I never said that Indian economy is at the mercy of trade with Pakistan. It is just your ego making you see things that are'nt really there.

Pakistan MFN status will add very little relatively to the Indian economy. It is by no way the magic pill for India- the consumer market is tint, the middle class non-existent.

 

[Chak Bamu]

I just edited my post. It was needlessly combative.

It is the 'little' things that matter my friend. There are hardly any silver bullets out there.

 

[Abingdonboy]

The trajectory of the Indian economy is good. The 0.1% contraction is more than made up for by the previous Month's unexpected 8.2% growth.

 

[arp2041]

The drop in growth of India shows where Indian economy is headed. Latest figures have revised short term growth forecast downwards. Manufacturing sector has gone down slightly with a contraction of 0.1%: IIP contracts 0.1% in November 2012, boosts odds for rate cut - NDTVProfit.com

Exports are down 1.9%: December trade deficit narrows to $17.7 billion, exports fall 1.9% - NDTVProfit.com

The fastest fix for India's economy may be by having free trade with Pakistan. That is why India is eager to get MFN status from Pakistan.

Learn to read. I never said that Indian economy is at the mercy of trade with Pakistan. It is just your ego making you see things that are'nt really there.

U must be joking right?? Indian economy is nearly 10 times that of Pakistan, it's annual trade is more than double of entire Pakistani economy, India & Pakistan's current trade stands roughly at 2.5 billion dollars with India is in huge trade surplus. Pakistan is growing by just 3-4% per annum & even without it's MFN grant to India, India is reaching new high in trade figures (exports & imports) & has grown at nearly 7% even when entire world was in recession in 2009. No offence but how can grant of an MFN status from an economy just 10-15% of India can help India add to growth??

 

[Abingdonboy]

All guess work:


09 Jan 2013:

Indian economy to grow at 6.7% in 2013-14: CRISIL

Indian economy to grow at 7.7% in 2013: OECD

Economy may grow by 6-7.5% in 2013-14: survey - Indian Express Mobile

Indian economy to grow at 6.7 per cent in 2013-14: Crisil - Business Today
Indian economy to grow at 6.5% in 2013: Goldman - The Hindu Business Line : Mobile Edition

'Indian economy may beat expectations in 2013' - Hindustan Times

‘Indian economy to grow at 6.8% in 2013’ - Eastern Mirror Nagaland



But look at this at how badly people can get it wrong:

http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-...nomy-grow-3-percent-2012-2013-bbc-report.html

 

[Chak Bamu]

Where is the Indian Economy Headed? - NYTimes.com

Interesting. No gloom or doom, but nothing sparkling either. Emphasis on reforms to achieve growth. Reforms are no fun, and India's coalition governments find it difficult to implement them. Hence a need to find other factors to achieve growth to complement slow reforms. Indians think it is beneath them to trade with Pakistan. Fine. Pakistan is not ready either, at least not til energy woes are addressed in 4-5 years.