Likely shale oil and gas discovery in Pakistan

[Shahzaz ud din]

OP-ED

Likely shale oil and gas discovery in Pakistan
Col (R) Muhammad Hanif

APRIL 18, 2019

Referring to the information obtained from the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources, on Sediment Data in Pakistan, the SDPI, in its Draft Report 2019 has given the estimates of shale oil and gas reserves in Pakistan. According to this report, Pakistan has more than 827365 square kilometres (Kms) of the sedimentary basin area in southern Punjab, eastern Balochistan and Sindh (311607 square kms onshore and 216058 square kms offshore). This sedimentary area is enriched with thick sequences of shale formations as a source and has a proven petroleum system, comprising shale oil and gas.

According to a study conducted with the help of the USAID in 2015,Pakistan has massive deposits of 10,159 trillion cubic feet of shale gas and 2.3 trillion barrels of oil. These estimates are several times higher than the figures given earlier by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA had reported in June 2013 that 586 trillion cubic feet of shale gas were present in the lower Indus Basin, of which 105trillion cubic feet were technically recoverable. Apart from gas, EIA also saw the presence of 9.1 billion barrels of shale oil that were technically recoverable out of the estimated deposits of 227 billion barrels.

As part of the Government of Pakistan exploration plan for shale gas and oil,in January 2019, the Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC), Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), ENI (an Italian oil and gas drilling company) and ExxonMobil (a US oil and gas drilling company) started drilling the first exploratory ultra-deep oil well Kekra-1 in offshore Indus G-Block, as a joint venture,near the Pakistan – Iran border.In this context, ExxonMobil’s entry in Pakistan is a major development asit brings with it a vast experience of deep and ultra-deep water drilling.

In view of the above discussed rich survey information and entry of the US oil giant ExxonMobil in the exploration effort, there is a strong possibility that the country may discover a very big offshore oil and gas reserves. The good news about the likely success in this exploration effort is expected to come soon, as was stated by the Prime Minister, Imran Khan. Based on surveys and prospect reports, the OGDCL chief believes the discovery could be evenlarger than that of Sui.

It can be safely predicted that like Saudi Arabia, that has signed an agreement to invest in Pakistan, including construction of as oil refinery at Gawadar, other countries, including Gulf nations would also like to invest in Pakistan oil and gas projects ranging from exploration, to refining and logistics

If the above prediction comes true and a large scale oil and gas is discovered in Pakistan, this would be a major breakthrough and a game changer for Pakistan and the entire region, as it might lead other international energy firms to bring foreign investment in Pakistan’s energy sector. The discovery would accrue many economic and strategic advantages to Pakistan. While it will help Pakistan in meeting its big energy shortages, the country would also start exporting oil and gas, thus earning a lot of foreign exchange.

The cheaper energy availability will also help in reviving Pakistan’s industry, and enhancing exports.The revenue coming due to exports will help in resolving the issues of balance of payments, addressing the circular debt issue, addressing budget deficits and paying the foreign debt. Likewise, Pakistan will also become free of getting foreign loans. And, faster economic development helped by the oil revenues, and CPEC boosted exports will enable Pakistan to address poverty and achieve prosperity.

The Global Times have also carried the news of likely shale oil and gas discovery in Pakistan and its positive impact on Pakistan’s economy.The newspaper has commented that a big oil and gas discovery will stimulate the Chinese companies to invest in Pakistan’s shale and gas sector, adding that China is willing to support Pakistan’s efforts to seize the development opportunity such a find might bring, and handle any challenges.



In this regard, it can be safely predicted that like Saudi Arabia, who has signed an agreement to invest in Pakistan, including construction of as oil refinery at Gawadar, other countries, including Gulf nations would also like to invest in Pakistanoil and gas projects ranging from exploration, to refining and logistics.In this context, apart from the construction of the CPEC related oil and gas pipeline by China, oil and gas pipelines from Pakistan will also be laid to other regional countries, thus addressing their energy shortages and stimulating regional energy connectivity, economic growth and trade, thus encouraging the regional economic integration and development. .

As Pakistan’s economy would become substantial, it will enable it to strengthen its defence, which will enable it to exercise its sovereignty at the international stage. A strong Pakistan will become strategically an important regional and world player, and therefore, will contribute in a major way towards keeping regional peace and stability, and also do a lot more for international peacekeeping.

The writer is an ex-Army Colonel, a former Research Fellow of Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI), Islamabad and Senior Research Fellow, Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad

 

[VCheng]

If the above prediction comes true and a large scale oil and gas is discovered in Pakistan,

"Predictions are hard, especially about the future." - Yogi Berra.

 

[CrazyZ]

Pakistan's indigenous shale oil resources should be more than enough to meet our current needs for many years. It requires know how and equipment to exploit shale resources.....which Pakistan does not have. This is where detente with the USA would help. Developing shale resources is far cheaper and faster than any offshore discoveries. This is why have been urging PDF's to focus on shale first, wait for any report from Exxon on the offshore stuff.