Leveraging India-China Strategic Partnership » Indian Defence Review
Scientists have predicted that global weather would undergo 80 percent change due to El Nino. The effect is already visible through not only changed patterns of rain, heat and cold but the ice cap of Antarctica is melting faster with predictions that sea water may rise by about one metre. India too is experiencing similar changes in weather on account of El Nino but this is simultaneous to change in the political landscape on account of NaMo (short for Mr Narendra Modi) who is predicted to usher in a new chapter in India’s history; bringing India out of the decade old time wrap of plunging economy, stagnation in security (food, health, personal), defence preparedness, employment, energy and environment, besides giving a fillip to foreign policy and international relations.
The world would be watching with interest the changes that would come about in the world’s largest democracy, together with India’s foreign policy and international relations, particularly India-China relations and resultantly its effect on the course that Asia would take.
Yes, it sure is a tall order requiring time but the important thing is to set decisions into motion and as Ashley Tellis of Carnegie Foundation admits, “There is universal agreement that he (Narendra ModI) is a decisive leader”. This by itself is a pleasant change from the indecisiveness or shall we say the culture of ‘dragging decisions’ in the past decade. The world would be watching with interest the changes that would come about in the world’s largest democracy, together with India’s foreign policy and international relations, particularly India-China relations and resultantly its effect on the course that Asia would take.
In June 2012, China had stated that “Sino-Indian ties” could be the most “important bilateral partnership of the century” and both countries set the goal to increase bilateral trade to US$100 billion by 2015. During the visit of PM Manmohan Singh to Beijing in October 2013, the joint statement issued by both countries outlined the vision for developing an ‘India-China Strategic and Cooperative Partnership for Peace and Prosperity’, main features of the vision being:
The ‘India-China Strategic and Cooperative Partnership for Peace and Prosperity’ is stated to follow the Panchsheel, displaying mutual respect and sensitivity to each other’s concerns and aspirations. But Panchsheel is of the Nehru-Zhou era of Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai and whether its application now in the ‘India-China Strategic and Cooperative Partnership for Peace and Prosperity’ will continue to remain mere euphemism as earlier only time will tell. While the 1962 Sino-Indian War should certainly be buried, there are very many more incidents, incursions and intrusions that have been attempted by the Chinese side including in the last two years. The CCP exercises tight control down to the lowest level, so these incidents are not some adventurous patrols at local levels but obviously part of an overall strategy controlled from the very top. Some scholars feel that in order to ‘test’ the resolve of the new government in India, China may make some aggressive moves. This hopefully will not happen, as that would be a negative signal to the new Indian Government and would retard India-China relations.
China with its totally state controlled media is better poised to educate her masses yet only 23 percent Chinese have a positive view of India whereas 36 percent Indians view China positively…
In March this year, replying to a question about Indian concerns over China’s $132 billion defence budget for 2014 (12.2 percent increase over the previous year) Qin Gang, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said, “The signal we have sent to our friendly neighbour India is peace and win-win cooperation.” During the same period, an editorial in China Daily also said, “As long as we do not interfere in others’ domestic affairs, as long as we do not covet others’ territories, as long as we commit our military capabilities to safeguarding peace, as long as we can afford it, we have the right to spend as much as necessary.” China’s defence budget is her own decisions but two issues mentioned in the China Daily editorial are debatable. First, is the issue of interfering in the domestic affairs of other countries that China denies but does not practice. China may deny being the source of weapons and equipment to insurgents in India, these being available in the global market, but can China deny giving refuge to Indian insurgents on its soil, one example being the ULFA hierarchy based in Ruli. Then, has China not armed the United State Wa Army (USWA) of Myanmar lethally and that too openly? Has China not been providing tacit support to Pakistan’s anti-India jihad? Second, is the issue that China does not covet other’s territory? The fact remains that it is only in the past decade that China dug out claims by the erstwhile Kuomingtang (that she overthrew in 1949) and started claiming “Other’s Territories” as Chinese territory.
As far as India is concerned, China is in illegal occupation Aksai Chin and Shaksgam Valley and Chinese claims along the LAC have been expanding over the years. Cross LAC incursions have been attempted even after signing of the BDCA last year. In Arunachal Pradesh, China claims Tawang on grounds that Tibetans come to pray at the ancient Tawang monastery but what about the enclaves of Minsar (Men ser), near Lake Mansarovar (Ma pham) which are for annual pilgrimage for all Indians and Bhutanese enclave of Tconsists of Darchen (Dar chen) Labrang etc near Mount Kailash (Gangs rin po che, Ti se) again used by Bhutanese and Indians for periodic pilgrimage – both these enclaves being under illegal occupation of China? Incidentally, Mount Kailash is the abode of an Indian God as per ancient mythology. The expanded claim to entire Arunachal Pradesh sprung as late as 2005 is highly preposterous. Coming to the claim of South Tibet, if China wants to go back in history, then it cannot go back to a period it desires otherwise the Mongols and Tibetans can start claiming large parts of China itself.
If the 21st Century is to be truly an ‘Asian Century’, this can only happen with closer cooperation between India and China, mutually beneficial to both and which has infinite scope. Today the bilateral trade itself today is lopsided, India’s trade deficit vis-a-vis China having peeked to US$ 31.4 billion last year. It is not the low quality Chinese goods alone that are being dumped into the Indian market, consequently this has resulted in shutting down many small-scale industries, increasing unemployment. Then China has been resisting Indian pharmaceuticals and software as well.
…President Xi Jinping is likely to make an official visit to India later this year. The requirement is to progress the ‘India-China Strategic and Cooperative Partnership for Peace and Prosperity’…
The prospects in industrialization in both countries are gigantic, as is the scope of Chinese investments in infrastructure in India and cooperation in increasing agricultural produce. All of these will have increased avenues with the new and stronger government coming into power in India. But if Prime Minister Narendra Modi is taking India out of its time wrap, it will be contingent upon President Xi jinping to do likewise and take a call on the CCP changing the old mode of seeking more territory and weigh it against the gains that can accrue by focusing on the issues mentioned herein.
Commonsense would indicate that the territorial mindset despite the euphoria of economic might and military muscle will eventually lead to a fate like Nazi Germany, no matter how much the Generals in the Politburo thump the table, and Nazi Germany was luckier in not having turmoil at home like in Xinjiang, Tibet and Inner Mongolia. China has been making every effort to get to the warm waters of the Indian Ocean through Myanmar and Pakistan but India is directly South and access to Indian ports should be lucrative enough provided the territorial greed can be overcome. The bottom-line is that India is a sub-continental power and will certainly not subjugate its national security interest in favor of any other country. Mutual understanding of the population of the two ancient civilizations also needs to be worked upon. China with its totally state controlled media is better poised to educate her masses yet only 23 percent Chinese have a positive view of India whereas 36 percent Indians view China positively, according to a BBC World Service Poll conducted in 2013.
As it stands today, President Xi Jinping is likely to make an official visit to India later this year. The requirement is to progress the ‘India-China Strategic and Cooperative Partnership for Peace and Prosperity’ in the true sense discarding the old practice of ‘carrot and stick’ coercive diplomacy and military muscle flexing. This would benefit both countries and take the Asian Century to the next level.
Lt Gen Prakash Katoch
Prakash Katoch is a former Lt Gen Special Forces, Indian Army
Scientists have predicted that global weather would undergo 80 percent change due to El Nino. The effect is already visible through not only changed patterns of rain, heat and cold but the ice cap of Antarctica is melting faster with predictions that sea water may rise by about one metre. India too is experiencing similar changes in weather on account of El Nino but this is simultaneous to change in the political landscape on account of NaMo (short for Mr Narendra Modi) who is predicted to usher in a new chapter in India’s history; bringing India out of the decade old time wrap of plunging economy, stagnation in security (food, health, personal), defence preparedness, employment, energy and environment, besides giving a fillip to foreign policy and international relations.
The world would be watching with interest the changes that would come about in the world’s largest democracy, together with India’s foreign policy and international relations, particularly India-China relations and resultantly its effect on the course that Asia would take.
Yes, it sure is a tall order requiring time but the important thing is to set decisions into motion and as Ashley Tellis of Carnegie Foundation admits, “There is universal agreement that he (Narendra ModI) is a decisive leader”. This by itself is a pleasant change from the indecisiveness or shall we say the culture of ‘dragging decisions’ in the past decade. The world would be watching with interest the changes that would come about in the world’s largest democracy, together with India’s foreign policy and international relations, particularly India-China relations and resultantly its effect on the course that Asia would take.
In June 2012, China had stated that “Sino-Indian ties” could be the most “important bilateral partnership of the century” and both countries set the goal to increase bilateral trade to US$100 billion by 2015. During the visit of PM Manmohan Singh to Beijing in October 2013, the joint statement issued by both countries outlined the vision for developing an ‘India-China Strategic and Cooperative Partnership for Peace and Prosperity’, main features of the vision being:
- exploring prospects of a bilateral Regional Trade Arrangement (RTA), review negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and expedite framework agreement for establishing industrial zones to provide platforms of cluster type development for enterprises of both countries;
- review progress of the India-China Study Group on the BCIM (Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar) Economic Corridor and further discussions on concepts and alignment of the economic corridor;
- Special Representatives exploring framework of settlement of the India-China boundary question to continue efforts in that direction;
- recognition of peace and tranquility on the India-China border as an important guarantor for the development and continued growth of bilateral relations – the Border Defence Cooperation Agreement (BDCA) strengthening maintenance of stability on the border;
- defence exchanges and military exercises being important in building greater trust and confidence to continue as agreed to mutually;
- appreciation of signing MoU on Strengthening Cooperation on Trans-border Rivers, plus agreement to exchange flood-season hydrological data and emergency management etc;
- facilitating greater people-to-people contacts and exchanges, supported by sister-city relationships that have been concluded initially on a pilot basis;
- in addition to marking 2014 as a Year of Friendly Exchanges, India and China to discuss with Myanmar commemoration of 60th anniversary of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence (Panchsheel);
- coordination and cooperation in multilateral forums including Russia-India-China, BRICS, and G-20 to jointly tackle global issues such as climate change, international terrorism, food and energy security, and to establish a fair and equitable international political and economic system.
The ‘India-China Strategic and Cooperative Partnership for Peace and Prosperity’ is stated to follow the Panchsheel, displaying mutual respect and sensitivity to each other’s concerns and aspirations. But Panchsheel is of the Nehru-Zhou era of Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai and whether its application now in the ‘India-China Strategic and Cooperative Partnership for Peace and Prosperity’ will continue to remain mere euphemism as earlier only time will tell. While the 1962 Sino-Indian War should certainly be buried, there are very many more incidents, incursions and intrusions that have been attempted by the Chinese side including in the last two years. The CCP exercises tight control down to the lowest level, so these incidents are not some adventurous patrols at local levels but obviously part of an overall strategy controlled from the very top. Some scholars feel that in order to ‘test’ the resolve of the new government in India, China may make some aggressive moves. This hopefully will not happen, as that would be a negative signal to the new Indian Government and would retard India-China relations.
China with its totally state controlled media is better poised to educate her masses yet only 23 percent Chinese have a positive view of India whereas 36 percent Indians view China positively…
In March this year, replying to a question about Indian concerns over China’s $132 billion defence budget for 2014 (12.2 percent increase over the previous year) Qin Gang, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said, “The signal we have sent to our friendly neighbour India is peace and win-win cooperation.” During the same period, an editorial in China Daily also said, “As long as we do not interfere in others’ domestic affairs, as long as we do not covet others’ territories, as long as we commit our military capabilities to safeguarding peace, as long as we can afford it, we have the right to spend as much as necessary.” China’s defence budget is her own decisions but two issues mentioned in the China Daily editorial are debatable. First, is the issue of interfering in the domestic affairs of other countries that China denies but does not practice. China may deny being the source of weapons and equipment to insurgents in India, these being available in the global market, but can China deny giving refuge to Indian insurgents on its soil, one example being the ULFA hierarchy based in Ruli. Then, has China not armed the United State Wa Army (USWA) of Myanmar lethally and that too openly? Has China not been providing tacit support to Pakistan’s anti-India jihad? Second, is the issue that China does not covet other’s territory? The fact remains that it is only in the past decade that China dug out claims by the erstwhile Kuomingtang (that she overthrew in 1949) and started claiming “Other’s Territories” as Chinese territory.
As far as India is concerned, China is in illegal occupation Aksai Chin and Shaksgam Valley and Chinese claims along the LAC have been expanding over the years. Cross LAC incursions have been attempted even after signing of the BDCA last year. In Arunachal Pradesh, China claims Tawang on grounds that Tibetans come to pray at the ancient Tawang monastery but what about the enclaves of Minsar (Men ser), near Lake Mansarovar (Ma pham) which are for annual pilgrimage for all Indians and Bhutanese enclave of Tconsists of Darchen (Dar chen) Labrang etc near Mount Kailash (Gangs rin po che, Ti se) again used by Bhutanese and Indians for periodic pilgrimage – both these enclaves being under illegal occupation of China? Incidentally, Mount Kailash is the abode of an Indian God as per ancient mythology. The expanded claim to entire Arunachal Pradesh sprung as late as 2005 is highly preposterous. Coming to the claim of South Tibet, if China wants to go back in history, then it cannot go back to a period it desires otherwise the Mongols and Tibetans can start claiming large parts of China itself.
If the 21st Century is to be truly an ‘Asian Century’, this can only happen with closer cooperation between India and China, mutually beneficial to both and which has infinite scope. Today the bilateral trade itself today is lopsided, India’s trade deficit vis-a-vis China having peeked to US$ 31.4 billion last year. It is not the low quality Chinese goods alone that are being dumped into the Indian market, consequently this has resulted in shutting down many small-scale industries, increasing unemployment. Then China has been resisting Indian pharmaceuticals and software as well.
…President Xi Jinping is likely to make an official visit to India later this year. The requirement is to progress the ‘India-China Strategic and Cooperative Partnership for Peace and Prosperity’…
The prospects in industrialization in both countries are gigantic, as is the scope of Chinese investments in infrastructure in India and cooperation in increasing agricultural produce. All of these will have increased avenues with the new and stronger government coming into power in India. But if Prime Minister Narendra Modi is taking India out of its time wrap, it will be contingent upon President Xi jinping to do likewise and take a call on the CCP changing the old mode of seeking more territory and weigh it against the gains that can accrue by focusing on the issues mentioned herein.
Commonsense would indicate that the territorial mindset despite the euphoria of economic might and military muscle will eventually lead to a fate like Nazi Germany, no matter how much the Generals in the Politburo thump the table, and Nazi Germany was luckier in not having turmoil at home like in Xinjiang, Tibet and Inner Mongolia. China has been making every effort to get to the warm waters of the Indian Ocean through Myanmar and Pakistan but India is directly South and access to Indian ports should be lucrative enough provided the territorial greed can be overcome. The bottom-line is that India is a sub-continental power and will certainly not subjugate its national security interest in favor of any other country. Mutual understanding of the population of the two ancient civilizations also needs to be worked upon. China with its totally state controlled media is better poised to educate her masses yet only 23 percent Chinese have a positive view of India whereas 36 percent Indians view China positively, according to a BBC World Service Poll conducted in 2013.
As it stands today, President Xi Jinping is likely to make an official visit to India later this year. The requirement is to progress the ‘India-China Strategic and Cooperative Partnership for Peace and Prosperity’ in the true sense discarding the old practice of ‘carrot and stick’ coercive diplomacy and military muscle flexing. This would benefit both countries and take the Asian Century to the next level.
Lt Gen Prakash Katoch
Prakash Katoch is a former Lt Gen Special Forces, Indian Army
