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Latest bids of LNG received for Feb, 21: Lowest bid is about twice the long term price obtained by PML-N





Hi,

The prices quoted are actually lower than the cargoes sold in Asian markets for February deliveries and are following market trends. For example, Vitol sold a cargo to Trafigura for $13.55/mmbtu (delivery window 3-7 Feb) and bought a cargo from BP for $10.30/mmbtu (delivery window 24-26 Feb), the cargoes were sold on Dec 16, 2020. Tight shipping conditions, lack of freights availability that resulted in higher freight cost (over $150k/day) along-with higher winter demands are some factors accounting for higher prices. JKM for second half of Jan 2021, has risen to $15.225/mmbtu.




Please provide reference(s) to the availability of these lower spot LNG cargoes and their lower rates for February 2021. Suppliers are neither naive nor ignorant of market trends, it is rather a simpleton notion of an uninitiated that a supplier in August 2020 will agree to sell a spot cargo for February 2021 at the spot rates of August 2020. This notion is beyond comical.




Trafigura was taking us for a ride, and it is brazenly evident from their quoted price for the Feb tender, if they were so sympathetic towards Pakistan's energy needs, they should have quoted their fixed price amount ($3.7/mmbtu) instead of this 32.4888% slope ($15.269/mmbtu). PTI did an excellent and commendable job by not falling for it.

I have replied to this Trafigura letter earlier to you too. You can read those replies in following thread.


Are we expecting too much from this ministry which can't even bring right numbers? The average price (DES) of contracted cargoes were less than $6/mmbtu for year 2020 (Jan-Dec).


"It is being repeatedly quoted tht in 2019, tender for Oct -Dec was floated in Aug while in 2020 tenders were issued late.The facts are tht combined10 cargo tender for Oct-Dec (2019) was issued in Aug but only 3/10 tenders were awarded whn demand was confirmed."

They are accepting that this year they have issued tenders LATE. What else are we saying??
 
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"It is being repeatedly quoted tht in 2019, tender for Oct -Dec was floated in Aug while in 2020 tenders were issued late.The facts are tht combined 10 cargo tender for Oct-Dec (2019) was issued in Aug but only 3/10 tenders were awarded whn demand was confirmed."

They are accepting that this year they have issued tenders LATE. What else are we saying??

Hi,

Please read the tweet again. What you have interpreted of it, is not what is being said. I think you comprehended the tweet incorrectly.

If a tender (hypothetically) for December delivery is issued in June, what in your opinion the reference to price sellers will be quoting based upon?
(a) Will it be based on June 2020 Brent spot price or will they be using forward price assessment for December 2020?
(b) What slope will they be quoting? Will it be same as that for June 2020, or will they be quoting a slope based on forward assessment for December 2020?
Please expand on the above for my better understanding.

Are we expecting too much from this ministry which can't even bring right numbers? The average price (DES) of contracted cargoes were less than $6/mmbtu for year 2020 (Jan-Dec).


I suspect since you are suggesting an average price of less than $6/mmbtu for year 2020 (Jan - Dec), you have access to pricing data backing it too (for every individual term and spot cargo received). Without the backing of solid data, such suggestions are empty claims based on ill-informed opinions.

Unfortunately I don't have access to such a data and thus can't challenge official figures. Kindly share with us this data, so an impartial assessment can be made.
 
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Hi,

Please read the tweet again. What you have interpreted of it, is not what is being said. I think you comprehended the tweet incorrectly.

If a tender (hypothetically) for December delivery is issued in June, what in your opinion the reference to price sellers will be quoting based upon?
(a) Will it be based on June 2020 Brent spot price or will they be using forward price assessment for December 2020?
(b) What slope will they be quoting? Will it be same as that for June 2020, or will they be quoting a slope based on forward assessment for December 2020?
Please expand on the above for my better understanding.




I suspect since you are suggesting an average price of less than $6/mmbtu for year 2020 (Jan - Dec), you have access to pricing data backing it too (for every individual term and spot cargo received). Without the backing of solid data, such suggestions are empty claims based on ill-informed opinions.

Unfortunately I don't have access to such a data and thus can't challenge official figures. Kindly share with us this data, so an impartial assessment can be made.

In this tweet MoP accepted that last year Pakistan floated tender for OCT-DEC in August, so they are contradicting their claim that there is some hindrance in PPRA rules to float tender so early.

From Jan20 to Dec20 they included LT cargoes for showing a low figure than corresponding year, but they could have achieve much lower only if they would have floated tender as per last year.
 
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In this tweet MoP accepted that last year Pakistan floated tender for OCT-DEC in August, so they are contradicting their claim that there is some hindrance in PPRA rules to float tender so early.

Hi,

In the same tweet, they also said only 3 tenders were awarded once the demand was confirmed. What good floating a tender when demand isn't confirmed? This seems to be quite rational explanation for not opting to repeat the same thing in 2020 doesn't it?

In your opinion, what benefits could have been extracted from floating tenders in August 2020 for December 2020 delivery that PTI has missed out. Please elaborate in detail.


From Jan20 to Dec20 they included LT cargoes for showing a low figure than corresponding year, but they could have achieve much lower only if they would have floated tender as per last year.

This is what they have twitted.

'If one wants to compare prices, it shd b made for a full year tht incld all seasons. GoP purchased spot cargoes at avg. $6.84 DES(Delivered Ex Ship)incld all higher cost winter cargoes in Jan,Feb,Nov & Dec 2020.Where all term cargoes received avg of $8.06 DES at18% higher rate "

This clearly mentions average price of all spot purchases to be $6.84/mmbtu and term purchases to be $8.06/mmbtu. They have not clubbed them together.
 
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Are we expecting too much from this ministry which can't even bring right numbers? The average price (DES) of contracted cargoes were less than $6/mmbtu for year 2020 (Jan-Dec).


"It is being repeatedly quoted tht in 2019, tender for Oct -Dec was floated in Aug while in 2020 tenders were issued late.The facts are tht combined10 cargo tender for Oct-Dec (2019) was issued in Aug but only 3/10 tenders were awarded whn demand was confirmed."

They are accepting that this year they have issued tenders LATE. What else are we saying??

Here bro each and every query of yours is answered in the article below for easy understanding.

LNG spot cargoes purchased at $6.84’

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ByStaff Report
exxonmobil-global-lng-trade-to-jump-2-5-times-by-2040-696x462.jpg

ISLAMABAD: The Petroleum Division on Tuesday said that all spot cargoes purchased by Pakistan averaged $6.84 delivered ex ship (DES), while the cargoes received under long-term contracts averaged $8.06 DES, showing an increase of 18 per cent in price.
The statement came in response to media comments about two spot cargo bids received by Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL) for deliveries in the second half of February 2021.
Earlier, it was revealed by the media that PLL received an all-time highest bid at 32.48 per cent of Brent to secure cargoes for the month of February with a 31-day gap between tender opening and advertisement.
PLL invited bids from international suppliers for the supply of two LNG cargoes on delivered ex-ship (DES) basis at Port Qasim, Karachi. The advertisement was given on November 28 for two cargoes for February 2021.
Extremely high bids were received for two LNG cargoes for slots of February 15-16, 2021, February 23-24 from four LNG suppliers.
In this regard, the Petroleum Division spokesperson said that spot market for LNG is always higher in the winter months versus summer months given the global demand and supply dynamics.
“Comparing a spot price in a high winter month with a long-term contract is comparing apples and oranges. If the same comparison is made for a summer month, it will be much lesser,” said the spokesperson, adding if a comparison is to be made, it can be made for a full year that includes all seasons.
The spokesperson stressed that it must be noted that PLL is bound to follow the PPRA procurement process, which requires a 30-day tender with a ten day period thereafter. PLL starts the tender process approximately 90-100 days beforehand as soon as demand is confirmed. It is being repeatedly quoted that in 2019, tender for October to December was given in August, while the tenders were issued late in 2020.
“The facts are that a consolidated tender for October-December 2019 for 10 cargoes was issued in August, prior to confirmation of demand. When the demand was finally confirmed, only 3 out of these 10 tenders were awarded. The average cost of cargoes in December 2019 was $7.81 which is higher than that of December 2020 at $6.34,” he added.
He said that if LNG is priced as natural gas, which will require a change in legislation, thereby ensuring price recovery for any sale, additional short term to medium term contracts can be put in place. “Until such time, spot purchases can only be made once firm demand is established for consumers who are prepared to pay the full price.”
“At this time, the supply side of LNG in the global market is very tight because many facilities are facing technical issues; however, it is expected that these supply constraints will ease by March 2021,” he concluded.

 
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Build Iran-Pakistan gas line and we will have less problems on bringing gas via ship route

Hi,

Apart from all the geopolitics involved with the project, the price linked to JCC (Japnese Crude Cocktail) makes it very unattractive to Pakistan's market, specially when the LNG market is moving from Brent linked to HH (Henry Hub)/ Dutch TFF linked future contracts. Unless a better price is offered, the project has lost its viability for Pakistan's market.

The price formula per mmbtu is a bit complicated and requires revision not only in the benchmark but also in fixed component. There was also ceiling and a floor fixed with it from $30-70. If price of JCC was within this range then the gas will be priced at 6.3% of JCC price, plus a fixed component of $1.15. If JCC falls outside the range of $30-70, the fixed components will be $2.06/mmbtu and $1.54/mmbtu respectively when the JCC is priced below $30/bbl and above $70 /bbl.

Since Pakistan will be taking all the risk of inviting US sanctions and GCC wrath, a new price, offering linkage to HH with no fixed component will be very attractive and go a long way in persuading Pakistan.
 
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Self explanatory. PTI despite the current fcuked up situation still saved $500 million plus in previous 2 years by ordering directly from open market.
You are lying as your leader. Go take your lies to lifafa anchors.
Latest lie of ruling clergy.... words of Nadeem Babar an illegaly rented advisor; ''there's no shortage of gas any where in country''
 
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You are lying as your leader. Go take your lies to lifafa anchors.
Latest lie of ruling clergy.... words of Nadeem Babar an illegaly rented advisor; ''there's no shortage of gas any where in country''
Too much Nihari today
 
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Build Iran-Pakistan gas line and we will have less problems on bringing gas via ship route

What do you know about the price agreed by Zardari?
Since Pakistan will be taking all the risk of inviting US sanctions

Any country who is wheeling dealing with Iran against US sanctions is destined to attract same sanctions.
Unmarked oil vessels are docking at port Qasim under control of an Iranian puppy.... leaves no room about the origin of oil and those making $billions monthly.
 
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You are lying as your leader. Go take your lies to lifafa anchors.
Latest lie of ruling clergy.... words of Nadeem Babar an illegaly rented advisor; ''there's no shortage of gas any where in country''


Sorry my previous quoted figure was wrong.
But still here is the proof. .
 
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Any country who is wheeling dealing with Iran against US sanctions is destined to attract same sanctions.

Hi,

I think my earlier post was missing some clarity, please let me clarify and add to my earlier post.

The intention of my earlier post was not a suggestion for Pakistan to cower down due to threats of US sanctions, but was to use these threats to our advantage, and renegotiate a better pricing formula for Pakistan, a price which is more reflective of current market trends and is based on HH rather than JCC, before Pakistan physically commits to this project.

For a better understanding, lets do a simple exercise. Iranian gas at Iran/ Pakistan border would have been priced at $3.991/mmbtu (JCC is at $45.09) as per current pricing formula and would have been cheaper compared to our term LNG (Gunvor, Eni, Qatar) contracts priced at $4.7948, $4.9310, and $5.5169/mmbtu respectively. But this is because of lower JCC (which is itself lower due to Japan's cutting down on Oil imports due to pandemic this year). JCC will not remain lower next year or the year after. It is better for Pakistan to decouple from JCC and negotiate a formula based on HH without a premium being attached to it, securing a fairly lower and stable round the year price for its market.

This is doable, but will require a lot of resilience and spine from Pakistan to stand up to US & GCC pressure, which Pakistan can only show, if Iran agrees to a lower price de-linked from oil. In absence of such a negotiation, the current pricing formula is unfortunately not best suited for Pakistan and provides Pakistan no incentives to lower its LNG imports in favor of this IP project.

I hope this explanation is much more sound.
 
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Hi,

In the same tweet, they also said only 3 tenders were awarded once the demand was confirmed. What good floating a tender when demand isn't confirmed? This seems to be quite rational explanation for not opting to repeat the same thing in 2020 doesn't it?

In your opinion, what benefits could have been extracted from floating tenders in August 2020 for December 2020 delivery that PTI has missed out. Please elaborate in detail.




This is what they have twitted.

'If one wants to compare prices, it shd b made for a full year tht incld all seasons. GoP purchased spot cargoes at avg. $6.84 DES(Delivered Ex Ship)incld all higher cost winter cargoes in Jan,Feb,Nov & Dec 2020.Where all term cargoes received avg of $8.06 DES at18% higher rate "

This clearly mentions average price of all spot purchases to be $6.84/mmbtu and term purchases to be $8.06/mmbtu. They have not clubbed them together.

We produced electricity with FO and diesel while we rejected to buy LNG in that year. This is another scam on which Ghulam Sarwer was removed. Even in this month (Nov,20) NEPRA slapped Rs15 billion to government on producing electricity from Furnace Oil while government produced 25% less electricity from RLNG based power plants as compared to Last month (October 20).
 
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