Bangladesh: Development Over Democracy
Until 2010, Bangladesh was a laggard in South Asia region. Its per capita income was about half of Pakistan's. Now Bangladesh's per capita g...
Until 2010, Bangladesh was a laggard in South Asia region. Its per capita income was about half of Pakistan's. Now Bangladesh's per capita gdp is higher than both India's and Pakistan's. What changed? The biggest change is Bangladeshi leader Shaikh Hasina's decision to stifle the unruly Opposition and the media to bring political and economic stability to the South Asian nation of 160 million people. It has eliminated a constant sense of crisis and assured investors and businesses of continuity of government policies. With development taking precedence over democracy, Shaikh Hasina followed the example of Asian Tigers by focusing on export-led economic growth of her country. She incentivized the export-oriented garment industry and invested in human development. Bangladesh now outperforms India and Pakistan in a whole range of socioeconomic indicators: exports, economic growth, infant mortality rate, primary school enrollment, fertility rate and life expectancy.
Bangladesh's Exports:
Bangladesh's garment exports have helped its economy outshine India's and Pakistan's in the last decade. Impressed by Bangladesh's progress, the United Nations’ Committee for Development Policy has recommended that the country be upgraded from least developed category that it has held the last 50 years.
The next challenge for Bangladesh is to move toward higher-value add manufacturing and exports, as Vietnam has done. Its export industry is still overwhelmingly focused on garment manufacturing. The country’s economic complexity, ranked by Harvard University’s Growth Lab, is 108 out of the 133 countries measured. That is actually lower than it was in 1995, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Vietnam's Rise:
Vietnam ruled by autocrats is rapidly becoming an Asian Tiger. With rising manufacturing costs in China and the US-China trade war, many major manufacturers are relocating to other countries in Asia. This situation has helped Vietnam emerge as a hub of foreign direct investment (FDI). FDI flow into the country has averaged more than 6% of GDP, the highest of any emerging economy. The country’s recent economic data shows a rise of 18% in exports, with a 26% jump in computers/components exports and a 63% jump in machinery/accessories exports. These figures have earned Vietnam the moniker of the newest "Asian Tiger".
Pakistan's Lost Decade:
It was in 2007 that Pakistan caught the "democracy" fever led by the lawless lawyers of Lahore. This led to the return of corrupt dynastic rule of Asif Zardari and then Nawaz Sharif. The year 2007 also marked the beginning of yet another lost decade that saw Pakistan's per capita gdp's continuing lag behind South Asia region and other emerging economies.
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| Pakistan's per capita income started to lag behind other emerging nations in 2007 |
Pakistan's Potential:
Pakistan was the original "Asian Tiger" back in the 1960s when other developing Asian economies sought to emulate its development model. It became an export powerhouse in the 1960s when the country's manufactured exports exceeded those of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia combined. The creation of major industrial estates in Karachi under President Ayub Khan's industrial policy incentivized industrial production and exports of value added manufactured products such as textiles. Now the country's industrial output lags its neighbors'.
With Chinese looking to relocate some of their industrial production to low-cost countries, Pakistan has a golden opportunity to grow its industrial output and exports again. Here's Karen Chen explaining why:
“Vietnam is too crowded already and moved into automobiles and electronics. There is no space for investment in Vietnam. Myanmar doesn’t have infrastructure. India is terrible. In Bangladesh you don’t have right conditions for setting up fabric units. So Pakistan is the ideal location for such garment manufacturing because of abundance of cheaper labour. The investment and tax policies for SEZs and new projects are also good. We’ve confidence to be at here.”
Seizing the opportunity to attract export-oriented investors will help Pakistan become the next Asian Asian Tiger economy. It will help the country avoid recurring balance-of-payments crises that have forced the nation to seek IMF bailouts with all their tough conditions. Focusing on "Plug and Play" Special Economic Zones (SEZs) is going to be essential to achieve this objective.
A video of retired General Amjad Shoaib responding to the question: "Is Pakistani military establishment to blame for all of Pakistan's problems?" He answers: "Yes, the Pakistani military produced Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif....Zardari also rose from the NRO (pardon) granted by the Pakistani military". But then he asks: "Who forced the people to vote for them? Shouldn't the people share the blame for the ascent of these politician?"
Related Links:
Haq's Musings
South Asia Investor Review
Pakistan's Debt Crisis
Declining Investment Hurting Pakistan's Economic Growth
Brief History of Pakistan Economy
Can Pakistan Avoid Recurring IMF Bailouts?
History of Pakistan Business and Industry
CPEC Financing: Is China Ripping Off Pakistan?
Pakistan's Lagging Industrial Output
Pakistan is 5th Largest Motorcycle Market
"Failed State" Pakistan Saw 22% Growth in Per Capita Income in Last 5 Years
CPEC Transforming Pakistan
Pakistan's $20 Billion Tourism Industry Boom
Home Appliance Ownership in Pakistani Households
Riaz Haq's YouTube Channel
PakAlumni Social Network
Bangladesh: Development Over Democracy
Until 2010, Bangladesh was a laggard in South Asia region. Its per capita income was about half of Pakistan's. Now Bangladesh's per capita g...
