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This is my entry for the writing contest, posting it here since I can't post in the Seniors' Cafe
@Slav Defence
Kashmir A Nuclear Flash Point
1. A Ground Reality
The massive presence of Indian occupation army in Kashmir has not stopped young Kashmiris from making preparations to celebrate Pakistan Independence Day through public displays of allegiance to Pakistan.The Youth Forum for Kashmir-YFK, in a statement released in Islamabad and at the United Nations in Geneva on Aug.13, has said that “Kashmir is the unfinished agenda of Pakistan’s independence.” The group, which is run by young Kashmiris and Pakistanis, said that Kashmiris passed a resolution in Srinagar on 19 July 1947 to join Pakistan. This resolution was passed by Kashmiri leaders, and came a month before the actual declaration of Pakistani independence a month later.
Today Kashmir community;
a. URGES India’s occupation army to allow the peaceful Kashmiri youth to exercise their right to wave flags, use firecrackers, and generally indulge in expressing their feelings on the occasion of Pakistan Independence Day.
b. RECALLS the huge sacrifices that the Kashmiri nation has given for the cause of freedom in the face of one of the world’s biggest armies, the Indian Army, which invaded and occupied Kashmir in August 1947, and launched a cruel regime of terror and murder in 1989, to stop Kashmiris from demanding freedom.
c. STRESSES the need for the international community to take note of the world’s biggest peaceful civil disobedience movement, where Kashmiris refuse to cooperate with the military occupation authorities of India.
d. INSISTS that India’s military occupation end immediately, and that New Delhi meet international standards of justice and fair play by withdrawing the occupation army from Srinagar and all other Kashmiri cities, and allow Kashmiris to take charge of their government, as a first step toward resolving the international dispute in accordance with UNSC resolutions.
e. ASKS India to rise up to its regional and international responsibilities by diffusing the source of chronic tension and instability in the region, which is Kashmir. Resolving Kashmir would ensure that India would be at peace with Kashmiris and with Pakistan, which is a party to the Kashmir dispute in accordance to UNSC resolutions.
f. DEMANDS that the United Nations Security Council seize itself of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Kashmir, where India’s military occupation authorities have been found involved in arbitrary and extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, denial of basic civil liberties, and the use of rape as a weapon of war.
2. UN Resolutions
After Indian approach to United Nations, UN on 5 January 1949 declared many resolutions, which states that the question of the accession of the State of Jammu and Kashmir to India or Pakistan will be decided through a free and impartial plebiscite. As per the 1948 and 1949 UN Resolutions, both the nations agreed this verdict, these include that Pakistan has to withdraw the intruders followed by withdrawal of Pakistani and Indian forces, as a base for the formulation of a Truce agreement, but these resolutions are there only in papers.
3. Hurdles in Peace
The entire absence of world’s attention and stubbornness showed by India towards peace, is the main hurdles in peace and prosperity of South Asia. One main problem which is attached with the Kashmir issue is inattentiveness of United Nations and other powers. Their abstaining nature is responsible for any catastrophe in this dangerous battle field.
4. Consequences
Kashmir issue grew in that very mode where it converted two sovereign nations into two neo imperialistic states of world powers. Poverty, fatal diseases, unemployment and illiteracy are some causes taking birth from Kashmir dispute and are swallowing up the two neighbors quickly.
5. Rise in Militancy
Internal developments and skirmishes on borders are not controllable without solving the main problem. Militancy in India and Pakistan are some consequences of this major problem which is adding oil to the fire. Now Kashmir problem is extending its base to Afghanistan where these two nations have to meet with a rigid and rival appearance. How can ease come in their way remains an answerable question for them, and they must recognize the importance of peace which has its roots only in Kashmir
6. Indian Cold Start Doctrine
There have been a number of developments since 1998 which has forced Pakistan to make adjustments in its nuclear doctrine and take a posture deemed more effective to maintain deterrence. There have been talks about India’s Cold Start doctrine which aims at rapid but limited retaliatory incursions into Pakistan by the Indian army to seize and hold narrow slices of territory in response to a terrorism event in India involving Pakistanis. In India’s calculations, Pakistan would not resort to the use of nuclear weapons in response to a limited Indian incursion, thereby offering space for conventional conflict even in a nuclearized environment.
Pointing to this Indian war doctrine, Pakistani decision-makers now argue that the deterrent value of their current arsenal operates only at the strategic level. According to this line of reasoning, the gap at the tactical level gives India the freedom to successfully engage in limited Cold Start-style military operations if kept below the Nuclear Threshold, without fear of nuclear escalation.
The Indian dilemma is that after the nuclear tests it carried out in 1998 and the Pakistani response in kind, a balance of terror has been established between the two countries which virtually rules out a full-scale conventional conflict between them. As a consequence, Delhi has lost much of its ability to threaten Pakistan with India superiority in the conventional field. The Cold Start doctrine and the latest threat by India to respond to the use of tactical nuclear weapons by escalating the conflict to the strategic level are nothing but desperate and highly dangerous attempts by India to regain its former ability to threaten Pakistan.
7. Full spectrum Deterrence
What is Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD) and why Pakistan was forced to travel from minimum credible deterrence, its initial nuclear doctrine, to FSD?
Pakistan had to become a nuclear state not by choice but by compulsion of circumstances due to growing conventional asymmetry and its threat perception vis-à-vis India who, by its own admission, fueled, manned, funded and actively supported an engineered insurgency for country’s break up in 1971. A country many times bigger in size and conventional military might which spends ten times more on its Pakistan-specific military initiatives persistently gives threatening messages and works closely with its internal and external enemies for destabilization, if not another break up.
Pakistan, developed low-yield, short-range, tactical battlefield nuclear weapon, the Nasr missile which provides “flexible deterrence options” for an appropriate response to Cold Start, rather than massive nuclear retaliation against India. Nasr is a war horse in the eventualities like Cold Start and will deter India from carrying out its plan.
Pakistan’s Full Spectrum Deterrence thus gives it a flexibility to deal with conventional threats through tactical nuclear weapons like Nasr. It is a ‘qualitative’ response to new war fighting concepts of ‘Cold Start’ and Pro Active Operations (PAO), introduced by India. Full spectrum offers a range of options to the decision-makers. According to Pakistan’s narrative, tactical nuclear weapons are to balance the conventional advantage of India. On the other hand India perceives it differently. India perceives it to be a destabilizing factor in the region. In response India has announced its policy of massive retaliation according to which no matter what the nature of nuclear threat is (tactical or strategic) it would come under strategic realm and would be countered by massive retaliation.
Full Spectrum Doctrine effectively changes Pakistan’s Nuclear Policy; it no longer waits for nuclear attack to counter with nuclear weapons; it will deter conventional force by employing nuclear deterrence. The greater the conventional threat, lower would be the threshold to employ nuclear deterrence. Development of tactical nuclear weapons gives more flexibility to Pakistani strategists as it would not be forced to use strategic nuclear weapon as a first response to India’s overwhelming conventional force in the eventuality of a major aggression against it.
Pakistan’s National Command Authority (NCA), the apex forum on nuclear matters, has delivered an unequivocal message to India; Pakistan will maintain the capability for a Full Spectrum Deterrence at all costs in order to meet the eventuality of any aggression from India’s hawkish posture it has developed in the recent past.
8. Nuclear Flash Point
There is a danger of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan but the resolution of the nuclear issue lies in the resolution of the Kashmir issue, I think Kashmir is the flash point. Its vulnerability and a threat for the whole humanity has been acknowledged by many leaders of the world, especially US President Bill Clinton, who named Kashmir as a nuclear flash point between two nuclear powers.
9. Solution
World must pursue India and Pakistan for a permanent settlement of Kashmir issue, at the same time they must realize that valuing time is an essentiality, as it is running away. So keeping Kashmir issue lingering can not be fruitful for these two nations in any case.. A dedicated voice is the need of hour which may lead this problematic issue to its logical end. Sufferings of innocent Kashmiris must be kept in view for a permanent and humanitarian resolution of Kashmir dispute, so that the whole population of sub continent may breathe in peace and no threat to humanity may find a way to proceed. India as well as Pakistan has to estimate the importance for a peaceful negotiation on Kashmir, then this battle field may act as a bridge of friendship between them.
PRIMARY SOURCES
Countercurrents.org | Educate | Organize | Agitate
Kashmir Media Service
ciss.org.pk
arms7.xykon-llc.com
vob.salarzai.org
Home - DAWN.COM
@Slav Defence
Kashmir A Nuclear Flash Point
1. A Ground Reality
The massive presence of Indian occupation army in Kashmir has not stopped young Kashmiris from making preparations to celebrate Pakistan Independence Day through public displays of allegiance to Pakistan.The Youth Forum for Kashmir-YFK, in a statement released in Islamabad and at the United Nations in Geneva on Aug.13, has said that “Kashmir is the unfinished agenda of Pakistan’s independence.” The group, which is run by young Kashmiris and Pakistanis, said that Kashmiris passed a resolution in Srinagar on 19 July 1947 to join Pakistan. This resolution was passed by Kashmiri leaders, and came a month before the actual declaration of Pakistani independence a month later.
Today Kashmir community;
a. URGES India’s occupation army to allow the peaceful Kashmiri youth to exercise their right to wave flags, use firecrackers, and generally indulge in expressing their feelings on the occasion of Pakistan Independence Day.
b. RECALLS the huge sacrifices that the Kashmiri nation has given for the cause of freedom in the face of one of the world’s biggest armies, the Indian Army, which invaded and occupied Kashmir in August 1947, and launched a cruel regime of terror and murder in 1989, to stop Kashmiris from demanding freedom.
c. STRESSES the need for the international community to take note of the world’s biggest peaceful civil disobedience movement, where Kashmiris refuse to cooperate with the military occupation authorities of India.
d. INSISTS that India’s military occupation end immediately, and that New Delhi meet international standards of justice and fair play by withdrawing the occupation army from Srinagar and all other Kashmiri cities, and allow Kashmiris to take charge of their government, as a first step toward resolving the international dispute in accordance with UNSC resolutions.
e. ASKS India to rise up to its regional and international responsibilities by diffusing the source of chronic tension and instability in the region, which is Kashmir. Resolving Kashmir would ensure that India would be at peace with Kashmiris and with Pakistan, which is a party to the Kashmir dispute in accordance to UNSC resolutions.
f. DEMANDS that the United Nations Security Council seize itself of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Kashmir, where India’s military occupation authorities have been found involved in arbitrary and extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, denial of basic civil liberties, and the use of rape as a weapon of war.
2. UN Resolutions
After Indian approach to United Nations, UN on 5 January 1949 declared many resolutions, which states that the question of the accession of the State of Jammu and Kashmir to India or Pakistan will be decided through a free and impartial plebiscite. As per the 1948 and 1949 UN Resolutions, both the nations agreed this verdict, these include that Pakistan has to withdraw the intruders followed by withdrawal of Pakistani and Indian forces, as a base for the formulation of a Truce agreement, but these resolutions are there only in papers.
3. Hurdles in Peace
The entire absence of world’s attention and stubbornness showed by India towards peace, is the main hurdles in peace and prosperity of South Asia. One main problem which is attached with the Kashmir issue is inattentiveness of United Nations and other powers. Their abstaining nature is responsible for any catastrophe in this dangerous battle field.
4. Consequences
Kashmir issue grew in that very mode where it converted two sovereign nations into two neo imperialistic states of world powers. Poverty, fatal diseases, unemployment and illiteracy are some causes taking birth from Kashmir dispute and are swallowing up the two neighbors quickly.
5. Rise in Militancy
Internal developments and skirmishes on borders are not controllable without solving the main problem. Militancy in India and Pakistan are some consequences of this major problem which is adding oil to the fire. Now Kashmir problem is extending its base to Afghanistan where these two nations have to meet with a rigid and rival appearance. How can ease come in their way remains an answerable question for them, and they must recognize the importance of peace which has its roots only in Kashmir
6. Indian Cold Start Doctrine
There have been a number of developments since 1998 which has forced Pakistan to make adjustments in its nuclear doctrine and take a posture deemed more effective to maintain deterrence. There have been talks about India’s Cold Start doctrine which aims at rapid but limited retaliatory incursions into Pakistan by the Indian army to seize and hold narrow slices of territory in response to a terrorism event in India involving Pakistanis. In India’s calculations, Pakistan would not resort to the use of nuclear weapons in response to a limited Indian incursion, thereby offering space for conventional conflict even in a nuclearized environment.
Pointing to this Indian war doctrine, Pakistani decision-makers now argue that the deterrent value of their current arsenal operates only at the strategic level. According to this line of reasoning, the gap at the tactical level gives India the freedom to successfully engage in limited Cold Start-style military operations if kept below the Nuclear Threshold, without fear of nuclear escalation.
The Indian dilemma is that after the nuclear tests it carried out in 1998 and the Pakistani response in kind, a balance of terror has been established between the two countries which virtually rules out a full-scale conventional conflict between them. As a consequence, Delhi has lost much of its ability to threaten Pakistan with India superiority in the conventional field. The Cold Start doctrine and the latest threat by India to respond to the use of tactical nuclear weapons by escalating the conflict to the strategic level are nothing but desperate and highly dangerous attempts by India to regain its former ability to threaten Pakistan.
7. Full spectrum Deterrence
What is Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD) and why Pakistan was forced to travel from minimum credible deterrence, its initial nuclear doctrine, to FSD?
Pakistan had to become a nuclear state not by choice but by compulsion of circumstances due to growing conventional asymmetry and its threat perception vis-à-vis India who, by its own admission, fueled, manned, funded and actively supported an engineered insurgency for country’s break up in 1971. A country many times bigger in size and conventional military might which spends ten times more on its Pakistan-specific military initiatives persistently gives threatening messages and works closely with its internal and external enemies for destabilization, if not another break up.
Pakistan, developed low-yield, short-range, tactical battlefield nuclear weapon, the Nasr missile which provides “flexible deterrence options” for an appropriate response to Cold Start, rather than massive nuclear retaliation against India. Nasr is a war horse in the eventualities like Cold Start and will deter India from carrying out its plan.
Pakistan’s Full Spectrum Deterrence thus gives it a flexibility to deal with conventional threats through tactical nuclear weapons like Nasr. It is a ‘qualitative’ response to new war fighting concepts of ‘Cold Start’ and Pro Active Operations (PAO), introduced by India. Full spectrum offers a range of options to the decision-makers. According to Pakistan’s narrative, tactical nuclear weapons are to balance the conventional advantage of India. On the other hand India perceives it differently. India perceives it to be a destabilizing factor in the region. In response India has announced its policy of massive retaliation according to which no matter what the nature of nuclear threat is (tactical or strategic) it would come under strategic realm and would be countered by massive retaliation.
Full Spectrum Doctrine effectively changes Pakistan’s Nuclear Policy; it no longer waits for nuclear attack to counter with nuclear weapons; it will deter conventional force by employing nuclear deterrence. The greater the conventional threat, lower would be the threshold to employ nuclear deterrence. Development of tactical nuclear weapons gives more flexibility to Pakistani strategists as it would not be forced to use strategic nuclear weapon as a first response to India’s overwhelming conventional force in the eventuality of a major aggression against it.
Pakistan’s National Command Authority (NCA), the apex forum on nuclear matters, has delivered an unequivocal message to India; Pakistan will maintain the capability for a Full Spectrum Deterrence at all costs in order to meet the eventuality of any aggression from India’s hawkish posture it has developed in the recent past.
8. Nuclear Flash Point
There is a danger of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan but the resolution of the nuclear issue lies in the resolution of the Kashmir issue, I think Kashmir is the flash point. Its vulnerability and a threat for the whole humanity has been acknowledged by many leaders of the world, especially US President Bill Clinton, who named Kashmir as a nuclear flash point between two nuclear powers.
9. Solution
World must pursue India and Pakistan for a permanent settlement of Kashmir issue, at the same time they must realize that valuing time is an essentiality, as it is running away. So keeping Kashmir issue lingering can not be fruitful for these two nations in any case.. A dedicated voice is the need of hour which may lead this problematic issue to its logical end. Sufferings of innocent Kashmiris must be kept in view for a permanent and humanitarian resolution of Kashmir dispute, so that the whole population of sub continent may breathe in peace and no threat to humanity may find a way to proceed. India as well as Pakistan has to estimate the importance for a peaceful negotiation on Kashmir, then this battle field may act as a bridge of friendship between them.
PRIMARY SOURCES
Countercurrents.org | Educate | Organize | Agitate
Kashmir Media Service
ciss.org.pk
arms7.xykon-llc.com
vob.salarzai.org
Home - DAWN.COM
