Kompromat
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Like fire, one can only ignite a war, but then war takes its own course. 1965, an operation in MJK led to a war on international border. This is only an assumption that we will have a confined conflict henceforth. When chips are down, people can get really desperate.
Well a clash with Iran is inevitable. Iran is no longer the Iran it used to be in Shah's time. Now Iran has its own regional agenda and if you don't fit in, they wont do you any favors. The only non-hostile border of Pakistan today is China.
Again you're seriously underestimating Afghanis. The way I see it, ISAF will maintain some air assets in Afghanistan because the ISIS epidemic is sure to reach Afghanistan sooner or later and ISAF can't risk a Iraq type collapse of Afghan army to ISIS+Talibans. Plus Afghanistan was discussing a purchase of Block 50/52 F-16s a while ago. that factor cant be simply shrugged off because US will adequately (Not to the teeth but still) arm Afghan air force with some good assets and F-16 would be the weapon of choice because of its versatility.
Then you shouldn't have been jumping up and down on Saudis showing interest in JFT (Which was more of another of their favor to Pakistan)
BVR has now become a standard weapon, days of BVR being a tech edge are long gone. Now henceforth every platform flying will be a BVR capable platform.
All of your points are valid and certainly i agree with them. I would just like to mention that the Americans will not be giving any F-16s let alone Block52s to the Afghanis. First reason is that the F-16 production line is about to be shut with no new orders coming in. Secondly operating an advance weapon system like the F-16 takes decades of training. The Iraqis are being trained since 2006-7. It would need a full scale buildup of infrastructure and training for Afghanis to be able to operate such complex machines. Most of their officers corps is illiterate and not acquainted with airpower at all. They would need all levels of trainer aircrafts before they can start training in an F-16 - so, don't think so.